Posted this over at my place yesterday and thought it worth putting up over here even though I've probably just thrown away a few quid.
I was having a think about this. I'd already posted that I put what I believed to be a throw away bet on the exchanges on Le prezien for this. I'm a fan of the horse and although betslo has stated he's not good enough I'd probably disagree although maybe I'd be pushing it to say he could win but I certainly think he's capable of running a big race here. I've backed him at prices around and over 400 on the machine (now to take out a touch over 5k) which would suggest he will be a NR. I've also backed him for the plate NRNB which looks like the more realistic target. However, I've noticed STD said that Romain de Senam is his best chance of a handicap winner (in the plate) as he's been crying out for better ground, I think that's fair enough comment. On going through the race I noticed just how many entries PFN holds in it, I also noticed that JP holds multiple entries in it including a few that would hold a solid chance.
I've then taken a look at the Ryan Air and JP only holds 2 entries Coney Island and Le prezien. Firstly Coney Island was supposedly on course to have a crack at the Gold cup. He then got his arse handed to him at Ascot completely took off his feet blundered and PU. Its doubtful we'd see him at Cheltenham at all now and even more doubtful that they'd think of re-opposing those that battered him at Ascot. Now, Le prezien probably only has 3 options he can either run in the Plate, The Jonny Henderson or the Ryan Air. With JP having loaded entries in both handicaps and Le prezien having a handicap mark that's effectively seen as a tough one to win a handicap off I'm half wondering whether they would just let him take his chance in the graded event. I certainly hope they might anyway.
Is he Good enough ? Well for sure he has a fair bit to find and he also struggles with his jumping sometimes. His run in the Paddy Power was when all things considered a very big run. Given the mistakes he made his position in the race and where he finished I thought it was a very good performance. Although he indeed flopped in the Caspian Caviar this might have been a case that he was feeling the effects of his run in the Paddy Power as both were run on desperate ground. The Paddy power form di hold up though to some degree in that race as Starchitect was on his way to hosing up when going wrong just before the last and other runners from the Paddy power held similar finishing positions with the exceptions of LP and Splash of ginge both flopped.
I once read a piece by Nick Mordin that stuck with me, he swore that the best time to catch a bad jumper was when fresh he made a case with it being something to do with Muscle repair. It was an interesting piece and it stuck with me whether it has the desired effect every time is another question.
I'd be more than happy with the prices I hold to see Le prezien take his chance here I think solid form from the Paddy power, being fresh and better ground to go on would certainly see him produce an improved performance and I think he'd run a really big race off what is certain to be a very strong pace.
If not I think he'll run a big race whatever he consents to line up in, he's a horse I like a lot and I'm not giving up on him after one poor performance in a bog.
20's and 40's 
I haven't written Cloudy off for winning completely but would think he's evens to finish 2nd. I just think the way this race will pan out will be absolutely ideal.
