The Saturday Punt

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LUKE

Senior Jockey
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May 2, 2003
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Have place laid Kayf Aramis at 2.8 in the belief that today isn't the day.All returns will be rolled over place laying Halcon G at around the 2/1 mark in the belief that he is very slow.
 
Have backed Jaconet at 11/2 on the basis that her AW performances have been far superior to what she's done on the turf. She's 3/3 on the AW including a romp on her latest AW start (5 length pillar to post victory) - a rise in the weights will make it tougher but I think she's up to it.
 
Thought Fix The Rib would take some pegging back aound Ascot. Really likeable attitude and may have put up more of a fight last time but for the loose horse at the second last.

Not saying I think Kayf Aramis will be placed, don't have a view on that, but I don't think there'll be too many in that field just having a run. The 57k to the winner is 12k more than the prize for the Pertemps final.
 
I agree. I was quite taken aback when I saw the level of prize money on offer for the race. It made me actually look at the form and I've settled on what I believe is a very fair bet in it - Lysander each way at 16/1.
 
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Think the Jaconet race is awfully tough. Her, Arganil, Green Manalishi, Prescription & Son Of The Cat could all win it, if only we could do Superfectas!
 
I followed Kayf Aramis very closely last season in novice hurdles laying him all the way to the festival where I was a backer at 33's when I saw the money for him(unfortunately I missed the day he was chinned at 1.01).Rightly or wrongly I believe I am tuned into the horse and even though I could see him being placed in a stayers hurdle on decent ground I honestly don't think today is the day.
 
Had one bet today, just lumped on Kauto, took Evs and 10/11 but can't see him getting beat and have had pretty much half my Betfair tank on him.
 
I've had a good whack on Notre Pere at 11/10 with PP to win or come second to Kauto. He travelled through his races last year appreciably better than previously and at Down Royal he was doing a good impression of Harchibald at the time he fell. In other words, I don't think he'll be outpaced even on a sharpish track in this ground. To me he's a comfortable odds on shot for this - 4/7ish.

Actually I quite fancy him to beat Kauto Star today, but that is just guesswork on how ready Nicholls has him - he's left quite a few looking like they'll be better for their first run this year, but this is obviously a special case.
 
Good shout with FTR, dj. Likewise laying Kayf Aramis, Luke.

I thought I got a great run for my money with Lysander. No compalints at all. Went exactly as I'd hoped, chasing the leaders all the way and staying on strongly. Shame he ran into a real revelation in the impressive Diamond Harry and the unexposed Henderson horse.

I reckon the handicapper will take a very strong view of this form.
 
I thought Kayf Aramis was moody and reluctant the whole way round-I'd say we will see a different horse in March.
 
Melendez said:
I've had a good whack on Notre Pere at 11/10 with PP to win or come second to Kauto. He travelled through his races last year appreciably better than previously and at Down Royal he was doing a good impression of Harchibald at the time he fell. In other words, I don't think he'll be outpaced even on a sharpish track in this ground. To me he's a comfortable odds on shot for this - 4/7ish.

Actually I quite fancy him to beat Kauto Star today, but that is just guesswork on how ready Nicholls has him - he's left quite a few looking like they'll be better for their first run this year, but this is obviously a special case.
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I can't ever remember being that wrong before. I probably have, but I can't remember it.
 
Having listened to the commentaries from Huntingdon, I think the answer is Derek "Thommo" Thompson (assuming there is a typo in the thread title).
 
I was all ready to nominate Nick Luck for arse comp after he twice said Notre Pere would need to run twenty seconds faster than he'd ever done before to get close to Kauto today. I still think it was a foolhardy comment since 20s equates to over ninety lengths, or 50lbs on the handicapping scale. To suggest Notre Pere is that far behind Kauto Star is simply ludicrous.
 
Having had to use real money to build up my pot I was relatively cautious today much to my disadvantage. Counting EW as a single bet I got 7/8 right or where I was wrong, laid off in running.

Being well in front I raised my ew bet on IC considerably increasing the win portion to a 5 pt stake. Laid off my stake at 3+ and let the rest run. I thought he had won from the TV and duly went bananas. :blink:

No evidence that he has any stamina problems from today. Of course it's early season but he is a real Gold Cup contender.
 
Unlucky TS, really enjoyed the race and was very confident IC would get up. Two slow jumps two and three out cost him a bit. RE Zaymar today. How significant if at all is it that VCbet were 11-8 this morning? Was it confidence or the traders licking up to the boss?
 
Irish Stamp said:
Have backed Jaconet at 11/2 on the basis that her AW performances have been far superior to what she's done on the turf. She's 3/3 on the AW including a romp on her latest AW start (5 length pillar to post victory) - a rise in the weights will make it tougher but I think she's up to it.
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Nice one. Never in any doubt. A horse that puts distance like that between themselves and their opponents are clearly going to continue to be difficult to beat around there.
 
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