The Saturday Punt

C'mon Gearoid, you know the way it works! That will undoubtedly have been confidence; their compilers and traders aren't daft and do their homework. Besides, what's 'licking up to the boss' got to do with anything? If the boss owns a leg in a horse that is fancied, they're going to make sure they're bottom price. No-brainer, no?!
 
I was hoping yoU would reply! It was a serious question- Had you been given that race to price today for VC, would you have had a free hand to put any reasonable price next to Zaynar? I just thought it was interesting, to me anyway, that they were bottom price. A bit like the old Ladbrokes prices on O Brien runners
 
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Im trying to remember DJ but Irish Stamp would know for sure. When he met Hebridean last year they went top price in the morning Hebridean and 7-4 Zaymar. William Hill went 10-3 until there phones blew every fuse in their call centre!
 
Went to Haydock and despite the weather it was the best day's racing i've experienced for years.

It wasn't too cold and the rain was intermittent.

I couldn't believe Starluck's price in the novice hurdle and waded in. I was caught short just before the race and watching it in the bar with a load of scallies cheering on their £5 win bets on a 8-15 shot was far from pleasant. Bad start to the day.

Ignoring the bumper I went to the paddock where Diamond Harry looked magnificent. Unfortunately I was so obsessed with the twin thoughts that one of the lower weights would do him near the end of the race and that I was not taking place terms of 1/5 odds in a handicap that by the time I found a proper bookie only 4s was available. I took it and re-joined my friends only to see 9/2 everywhere. Grr.
Is he World Hurdle rather than RSA bound now? I haven't checked the odds.

Backed Madison in the big one. Super race that reminded me of Kauto's narrow win from Exotic Dancer.

Overall a good crowd and a big one. Nice to see the North West supporting proper jump racing. I just wish the course was on the outside.
 
He has always been shorter with VC but it wouldn't be the first instance as others can vouch for (and I've told people from this forum elsewhere) - in regards to this particular instance as SL points out if the directors have a share in the horse it would be stupid to go top price and lay the horse. You're always going to be bottom price on a horse the owner/directors own.
 
They clearly didn't fancy others in the race Gearoid or they wouldn't have gone top price. If they were paid not to have an opinion they'd have gone bottom price Zaynar and then bottom price everything else too and bet to a ridiculous percentage.
 
If they were employed not to have an opinion they'd be middle of the road on everything - would never be top price, nor bottom price.
 
Yes but if you can point out r race in the next week where VC are bottom price a horse i.e well under Betfair,, I will be shocked. I think the traders price Zaynar on what they hear not what they read into the form.
 
Given everybody knows about VC's involvement in the horse, are there not integrity issues if they are seen to go top price about the horse and he gets beaten when running below form. Considering the horse is 4 from 4 and they've been shortest all along on him, this possibly isn't the best time to be having a go at them.

If you were to talk about their copycat betfair prices trading software, you'd certainly have a stronger argument for questioning how much of an opinion their traders have.
 
I think Zaynar was very impressive, the form looks solid, jumped much better than last season, tried hard and travalled very well without the cheekpieces.


The division looks very strong after the performances of Solwhit, Celestial Halo and with horses like Binocular and Punjabi still to run.



I want to see Hurricane Fly on better ground.
 
davidjohnson said:
Given everybody knows about VC's involvement in the horse, are there not integrity issues if they are seen to go top price about the horse and he gets beaten when running below form. Considering the horse is 4 from 4 and they've been shortest all along on him, this possibly isn't the best time to be having a go at them.

If you were to talk about their copycat betfair prices trading software, you'd certainly have a stronger argument for questioning how much of an opinion their traders have.
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Which they don't have! Or didn't at least - if they do, it's brand new and was implemented in ultra quick time seeing as how it generally takes months and months (even years) to develop, test and put in place new software programs.

It's really quite entertaining to read some of these theories actually; cheers fellas, you've given me the first (actually I lie - second) good chuckle of the day. Of course traders are generally employed for their opinion, to which extent depends entirely on the company concerned and the particulars of each market. Some firms are renowned for simply doing the Betfair shuffle yet others have a bit more of a think about it. That said, obviously with markets the way they are these days it is folly to have too much of an opinion otherwise you very quickly end up with ridiculously one-sided books with huge liabilities on one or two horses. It is very easy to fall into the popular and lazy way of thinking that "all bookmakers are evil, yada yada....all bookmakers compilers have no opinion they just follow Betfair/Oddschecker/Betdaq* yada yada..." or one of the many other all too common phrases people trot out simply because they've heard other people say it or they perceive it to be fashionable to state such an opinion.

*delete as applicable

As for Zaynar, is it not common sense that if the boss owns a horse - or leg of - any firm wouldn't want to be laying too much of it anyway and if they do fancy it they're going to want to duck it in a big way and get everything else in the book, no?
 
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I don't have access to the RP archive, but I'm sure I remember an interview with one of the traders bragging about the software they had now which adjusted their price if they were above betfair odds and said that it had improved their profitability because they weren't taking so many bets from arbers.
 
There was an interview with Matt early September time, I know the one you mean. I stand corrected in which case if he says they have it! I don't remember it myself but that doesn't say a lot, I was pretty drugged up at the time having not long been out of hospital. Methods must have changed drastically in which case if so.
 
Im not having a go at VC traders. My quertion is simple - Is VCs pricing of Zaynar significant?
 
I realise you're not - some others (note the use of the word some, and it's used generally as it can be a recurring theme so not only people posting right now on this particular thread) do tend to make a habit of having a pop at traders generally as a habit though! They have a job to do as well as anyone else.

In short, I'd say most definitely yes.
 
I'm certainly not having a pop at traders given my job but each firm operates differently.

The one I currently work for is very much Betfair driven and I much prefer it despite holding a strong opinion on most races, particularly those on the flat. If I was to have my own firm, I'd want the trading to be Betfair rather than opinion driven.

Chandler himself is well known for backing horses himself and it's easy to tell which ones by looking at Oddschecker on a busy afternoon as it'll look like this....

12 10 12 10 14 12 6 10 12 12 10
 
davidjohnson said:
Nice one. Never in any doubt. A horse that puts distance like that between themselves and their opponents are clearly going to continue to be difficult to beat around there.
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Do you think connections should take her Stateside now?

She's a synthetics horse and there are limited opportunities for her over here. They could sell her for a mint.

Either that or take her to Dubai.
 
Both perfectly sensible ideas, her form suggests some of the fillies' only races in the States would be there for the taking.
 
There's a happy medium to be found between using Betfair religiously and taking your own view on races.

IMO there's no point just following Betfair all the time as in the early markets and in weak races if one firm is 3/1 someone will put up 4.1 to lay, if another firm then go 100/30 the 4.1 becomes 4.4. Obviously there are examples when it will pay to follow Betfair ie. if there's stacks of money queueing up to back a particular horse (I'm talking thousands rather than tenners) early in the day but like everything Betfair should be used as a tool rather than as the odds decider.

As for Jaconnet - with her early speed they'd be daft not to go to Dubai and race her on the tapeta out there, failing that a sale to the US would go down well too. Whatever they do they should steer clear of the turf as much as possible.
 
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