The Saturday Punt

Zaynar really done nothing wrong. Very little hype about the horse perhaps because of his on and off the bridle style. I cant help thinking he should be clear fav for the Champion at this stage.
 
Certainly hasn't done a thing wrong, but I don't think he's done anything to suggest he should be a 3/1 shot in this market either.

I don't think any horse has done anything to justify being clear favourite in the Champion market and would gladly take any of them on at 3's. Punjabi is surely over-priced at 16/1 though.
 
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It is possibly the most fascinating ante-post market I can remember. We have already had four different clear favs.
 
Gearoid said:
Zaynar really done nothing wrong. Very little hype about the horse perhaps because of his on and off the bridle style. I cant help thinking he should be clear fav for the Champion at this stage.
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Although Zaynar ultimately won easily, it was nothing like the canter I'd anticipated. If I'd punted him at 1/5 I'd have been very worried until the last flight. Taking into account the low ORs of the beaten horses, I'd say the Henderson team will be worried about that run, much more so than the Nicholls team will be about CH's defeat. Let's not forget, CH was giving KK weight.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Although Zaynar ultimately won easily, it was nothing like the canter I'd anticipated. If I'd punted him at 1/5 I'd have been very worried until the last flight. Taking into account the low ORs of the beaten horses, I'd say the Henderson team will be worried about that run, much more so than the Nicholls team will be about CH's defeat. Let's not forget, CH was giving KK weight.
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Fair point, I did think he was in trouble at one stage but thats just his style. My question is - Was Celestial Halo off the bit too far out when all things considered everything was in his favour. Hard to make a case for him winning a Champion Hurdle off todays performance alone.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Although Zaynar ultimately won easily, it was nothing like the canter I'd anticipated. If I'd punted him at 1/5 I'd have been very worried until the last flight. Taking into account the low ORs of the beaten horses, I'd say the Henderson team will be worried about that run, much more so than the Nicholls team will be about CH's defeat. Let's not forget, CH was giving KK weight.
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That's not a fair point. It's a blinkered point from someone who has put his eggs in the Celestial Halo for the Champion Hurdle basket. I'll agree that Zaynar was no more than workmanlike in beating rivals he was fully entitled to do so and that it was an over-reaction to shorten him for the Champion Hurdle. However,the fact remains, he keeps getting the job done, whilst his likely opponents keep beating each other. Will be interesting to hear why Celestial Halo got beat. No doubt Nicholls will have an excuse in the coming days.
 
Zaynar didnt jump yesterday as well as he did at Ascot


Even though it was a good nce, I have Cape Tribulation as a good horse
Zaynar posted something like a 162+ in my figures, not so far of Khyber Kim yesterday (168+).
 
davidjohnson said:
That's not a fair point. It's a blinkered point from someone who has put his eggs in the Celestial Halo for the Champion Hurdle basket.
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We all do it, though. Our opinions are coloured by the bets we've had.

If I'd backed Celestial Halo for the Champion - and I haven't - I'd be arguing that knocking his price out after yesterday was an overreaction and, possibly, a betting opportunity. He overjumped at the last, he was giving weight to the winner, his form's got more substance than Zaynar's and Zaynar shouldn't be shorter etc.

If I'd backed Zaynar - and I have - I'd be talking about his total superiority at the finish yesterday over a decent yardstick, his tendency to do just enough, the fact that he should still have improvement in him and that he'll benefit for the reapplication of cheekpieces etc.

I wouldn't necessarily be right in either case, though. I've actually a stronger fancy for Go Native.
 
Now that's a fair point Gus. For the interests of balance I should point out that I have backed Zaynar for the CH.
 
davidjohnson said:
That's not a fair point. It's a blinkered point from someone who has put his eggs in the Celestial Halo for the Champion Hurdle basket.
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I try not to let myself be blinkered in such a way. I only had CH 4lbs ahead of KK at the weights going into yesterday's race, hence my belief that KK 'without the fav' at 9/2 was a cracking bet, since Punjabi was likely to be a little short of 100%. I could never have backed CH at odds on yesterday. I wanted him to win and KK to be second but I said beforehand that
I would be surprised and disappointed but not shocked
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if CH didn't win. So I was surprised, to an extent, and disappointed, very, that he didn't. I just didn't think he was running with the same gusto as he'd had at Wincanton. If no valid excuse comes to light, I'll probably have to conclude I over-rated the Wincanton race. It would also mean, however, that CH hasn't improved a pound over the summer and hasn't improved a pound since Wincanton, while Nicholls is telling us the opposite.
 
Gearoid said:
My question is - Was Celestial Halo off the bit too far out when all things considered everything was in his favour. Hard to make a case for him winning a Champion Hurdle off todays performance alone.
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Didn't look that way to my eye. Wasn't really off the bridle until after the second last ~ if anything, my initial impression was that Walsh could have stretched on a bit earlier.

Hard to see him getting conditions any more in his favour than yesterday - even in the Champion perhpas. Did very little wrong yesterday of course, though I just think he's vulnerable to something with a turn of foot.

The more I look at this market, the more I think it should 11/2 bar. Wide open.
 
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