The Sneaky Value Thread

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SlimChance

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This is a thread for SlimChsnce to educate his followers on good value bets that they may have missed. I will guarantee that these bets will make a profit after 50 bets. Please play along for reasonable stakes.

€20 win
Chelsea V Man Utd - Cards - Red Card Markets
A Red Card To Be Shown
7/2 or better (9/2 Paddy Power)

Rules

  • Only play at advised prices
  • Stick to recommended stake levels
  • I don't care what you think is value
  • No seriously I really don't care what you think is value
  • I'm open to people suggesting bets to me and I will give my opinion on the price
  • Don't feed the trolls
 
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SlimChance said:
This is a thread for SlimChsnce to educate his followers on good value bets that they may have missed. I will guarantee that these bets will make a profit after 50 bets. Please play along for reasonable stakes.

€20 win
Chelsea V Man Utd - Cards - Red Card Markets
A Red Card To Be Shown
7/2 or better (9/2 Paddy Power)

Rules

  • Only play at advised prices
  • Stick to recommended stake levels
  • I don't care what you think is value
  • No seriously I really don't care what you think is value
  • I'm open to people suggesting bets to me and I will give my opinion on the price
  • Don't feed the trolls
Click to expand...

long live democracy

I love guarantees and 12 inch nails
 
Three suggested bets. Milos Raonic to win Wimbledon at 12/1, to win the US Open at 25/1, and also the double. Prices currently available still with PP and Betfair.

The rationale being that he's capable enough to win both of these anyway, but in addition to that all of the big four are currently at their most vulnerable. Neither Federer or Nadal are the players they were, Murray has an elbow injury and you feel he's not quite as good this year as he was last when Raonic was pushing him all the way every time they met, and Djokovic has injury and motivation issues. Outside of these four I have Raonic easily better than the rest, and I expect this to be his breakthrough year with both tournaments suiting his game perfectly.

His odds for both tournaments reflect the fact that the big four still dominate the market and are much bigger than his true chance. When he wins Wimbledon he'll go off a quarter of his current price in the US.

In addition I also have this bet in an accumulator with Minella Foru tomorrow at 12/1, and Al Wukair at 8/1 in the 2000 Guineas to win £250k.
 
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Maruco said:
Three suggested bets. Milos Raonic to win Wimbledon at 12/1, to win the US Open at 25/1, and also the double. Prices currently available still with PP and Betfair.

The rationale being that he's capable enough to win both of these anyway, but in addition to that all of the big four are currently at their most vulnerable. Neither Federer or Nadal are the players they were, Murray has an elbow injury and you feel he's not quite as good this year as he was last when Raonic was pushing him all the way every time they met, and Djokovic has injury and motivation issues. Outside of these four I have Raonic easily better than the rest, and I expect this to be his breakthrough year with both tournaments suiting his game perfectly.

His odds for both tournaments reflect the fact that the big four still dominate the market and are much bigger than his true chance. When he wins Wimbledon he'll go off a quarter of his current price in the US.

In addition I also have this bet in an accumulator with Minella Foru tomorrow at 12/1, and Al Wukair at 8/1 in the 2000 Guineas to win £250k.
Click to expand...

What firm will let you double him for both events? Are you convinced he'll go off shorter for both events on BF? Are you sure betting Tennis without the draw is a good idea? Wimbledon is a long way away.
 
#Bet2
Fairyhouse 5.00
Bless The Wings 14/1 or better but must be 5 places e/w
€10 e/w
(16/1 Bet365)
 
I backed him with Coral Slim. His price with them for the US is now 20's and he seems to be heading there all round.

I expect him him to go off at a single figure price at Wimbledon assuming he wins Queens or Halle which I think he will, and 6/1 or less for the US if he wins the first leg.

I'm not concerned about the draw as I think he's the most likely player to win both events given the current standing of the big four who are all on the downgrade, so I'm not phased by who's in his half. Even if he has a tough draw I don't see any downside in the current odds. Of those outside the big four I don't see anyone coming through at the same rate. Wawrinka is solid but more likely to make semis, Nishikori is the same, Del Potro has never quite reached the level he did before he missed the best part of two seasons, and the rest just aren't good enough. The only possibility I see is Zverev if he steps up again. He had a good run in Australia but I think it'll be another season before he makes his big breakthrough. He's one for a bet in his quarter in the big tournaments depending on the draw. Timing is everything with these bets and the timing is perfect for Raonic. The downside is the time to both events and that he has to stay injury free. In my opinion that's more than factored into the price of both events.

In terms of confidence I think he'll be World Number 1 sometime soon. He may be able to amass enough points by the end of this season to do it, but I think they still carry over half points from a year before so it may be in the first part of the 2018 season.

in the tournaments themselves it's easy enough to back him for his quarter for your stake or a profit whichever you prefer.

In terms of confidence injury is my only concern and I really like the bet.
 
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Paul, surely you will get mugged on 'related contingencies' for your tennis double?

Raonic's price obviously tumbles for Flushing Meadows, if he wins Wimbledon. I can't see that Coral would allow your 25/1 to stand.
 
Maybe. We'll see Grassy. They've been happy enough to offer odds for King George/Gold Cup doubles in the past for example.
 
Agreed, Paul......but that's generally offered as a sole-bet, with the potential for a King George win factored into the overall price offered for then going onto win the Gold Cup.

Maybe worth asking them if they would let it run, though I do have my doubts. This looks like classic 'Void the bet' territory, if yer man wins Wimbledon.
 
I'll let it run and see. Worst case is I'd argue they should give the price at the start of the U.S. Open.

I've got Raonic to win Wimbledon with a number of other unrelated bets for some big takeouts as well. I've got him in an each way double with Minella Foru this afternoon for example. Others I've got in various combinations with those two are Al Wakair in the 2000 Guineas, Arctic Fire at Punchestown, and Michael Van Gerwen to win the Premier league. I've got these in various win and each way doubles, trebles, and accas between now and June. The win acca is nice at well over £200k, but all would be very healthy pulls. Any two together look very nice. I've got a whole host of other stuff on my books and if we're talking 'sneaky value' surely antepost multiples in the right markets are the very definition?

The overall point for this thread is that Raonic is outstanding value given the current status of the top players. The market is formed on what they were rather than what they are and Raonic is massively overpriced.
 
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