The Sneaky Value Thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
  • Start date Start date
SlimChance said:
This is a thread for SlimChsnce to educate his followers on good value bets that they may have missed. I will guarantee that these bets will make a profit after 50 bets. Please play along for reasonable stakes.

€20 win
Chelsea V Man Utd - Cards - Red Card Markets
A Red Card To Be Shown
7/2 or better (9/2 Paddy Power)

Rules

  • Only play at advised prices
  • Stick to recommended stake levels
  • I don't care what you think is value
  • No seriously I really don't care what you think is value
  • I'm open to people suggesting bets to me and I will give my opinion on the price
  • Don't feed the trolls
Click to expand...
This was unlucky by the way. The referee was very lenient with Rojo and Costa, and I presume these two were your angle?
 
No dispute with your logic for backing Raonic, Paul - just reckon your on a hiding to nothing with the related-contingency. Fair enough call to expect opening-price for US Open though.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Even if you were convinced it couldn't actually win the race?
Click to expand...

Let's breakdown the two bets to see why one is so superior.

€10 e/w @ 16/1 5 places has an expected win of +23.55%

€10 @ 16/1 has an expected win of -1.44%
€10 @ 4/1 has an expected win +25%

€20 @ 9/4 to place only 5 has an expected win of -18.75%

It is a fallacy that I constantly see that the place market is a better betvbecause "you lose half your stake" on the win part of the bet It's completely price dependant and you'll win far more money betting these races e/w 5 places.
 
Last edited:
Maruco said:
if we're talking 'sneaky value' surely antepost multiples in the right markets are the very definition?

The overall point for this thread is that Raonic is outstanding value given the current status of the top players. The market is formed on what they were rather than what they are and Raonic is massively overpriced.
Click to expand...

Steady on now. Taking antepost pot shots is not the definition of sneaky value or the point of this thread. I don't see any great value in any of those bets.
 
Fair enough Slim in regards the point of the thread. I don't agree about multiples always being potshots though.
 
Maruco said:
Fair enough Slim in regards the point of the thread. I don't agree about multiples always being potshots though.
Click to expand...

No but throwing together four things you fancy doesn't always equal a value play.
 
Last edited:
SlimChance said:
€10 e/w @ 16/1 5 places has an expected win of +23.55%

€10 @ 16/1 has an expected win of -1.44%
€10 @ 4/1 has an expected win +25%

€20 @ 9/4 to place only 5 has an expected win of -18.75%
Click to expand...

That's the kind of maths I don't understand (but have never studied anyway). To me 9/4 5 places has an expected win of 225%!

(Be gentle with me.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
That's the kind of maths I don't understand (but have never studied anyway). To me 9/4 5 places has an expected win of 225%!

(Be gentle with me.)
Click to expand...

I'm not saying the maths I use his is 100% accurate but it's a very fair guide. I'm predicting that the horse will be 3/1 on the 5 place market on Betfair at the off. That means that the place part of an each way 5 place bet at 16/1 is very good value and your 9-4 place only example is poor value.

In terms of your 225%. I would say a 9/4 shot is 1/3.25 = 30.76% chance of winning and that the market at the off will price it as a 25% chance of winning.
 
Last edited:
That last part I understand!

It's something I used to do regularly when I went racing much more often. I used to add up the percentages mentally as I walked up and down the bookies' lines. So of course 9/4 equals 30.76% but as you say there's a personal element to factor in beyond that. I was maybe misinterpreting your "expected" win.

I'm quite partial, though, to backing place only:
a) if I really don't fancy the horse to win, and
b ) I'm getting 1/4 or 1/5 the win price.

It's very rare, though, that I'll take that kind of bet for a top 5 finish as the bookies tend to shorten up the place-only odds quite a bit more than maybe they should.
 
Desert Orchid said:
That last part I understand!

It's something I used to do regularly when I went racing much more often. I used to add up the percentages mentally as I walked up and down the bookies' lines. So of course 9/4 equals 30.76% but as you say there's a personal element to factor in beyond that. I was maybe misinterpreting your "expected" win.

I'm quite partial, though, to backing place only:
a) if I really don't fancy the horse to win, and
b ) I'm getting 1/4 or 1/5 the win price.

It's very rare, though, that I'll take that kind of bet for a top 5 finish as the bookies tend to shorten up the place-only odds quite a bit more than maybe they should.
Click to expand...

You see the 5 place is a concession so the plscebook is automatically overbroke. I'm forever trying to convince you that you should be torching bookmakers with permed e/w multiples at the festivals. You'll make a case for say a 66/1 shot like the one that placed at the festival that others will ignore. Your expected win is probably more than I'd calculate using Betfair because most punters won't see you're angle.

Apologies if I sounded condescending about 1/3.25 = 30.76%. I'm more making the point that I compare that to what Betfair will Price the selection at the off to define value.
 
Maruco said:
You're usually better backing each way and laying the win part back on Betfair DO.
Click to expand...

That's ok but you have to lay the win part at "true odds" or sometimes a small bit above AND pay commission on top. I think holding the win part is a better strategy.
 
I didn't take your point as being condescending, far from it. It was a timely reminder that I should have been looking at the price in terms of the equivalent percentage.

As you know, even though I'm in the longest losing run of my betting career (and I showed a profit at Cheltenham and in the National) I tend only to bet if I think the horse is longer than it should be, only very occasionally if its price is about right. It looks like I'm just getting it wrong a lot these days. That's the real worry.
 
#Bet3
Fairyhouse 5.00
Noble Endeavour 16/1
5 places 1/4 or 6 places 1/5 but fine. Preference for 1/4 5
€10 e/w
(16/1 Bet365, Skybet and PokerStars)
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
I didn't take your point as being condescending, far from it. It was a timely reminder that I should have been looking at the price in terms of the equivalent percentage.

As you know, even though I'm in the longest losing run of my betting career (and I showed a profit at Cheltenham and in the National) I tend only to bet if I think the horse is longer than it should be, only very occasionally if its price is about right. It looks like I'm just getting it wrong a lot these days. That's the real worry.
Click to expand...

I think your selection process is very very good but your betting execution needs tweaking. I don't think your taking advantage of your good days. I'd fancy I would make more money with your selections if we were given the same starting bank. That's not to say my way is right for you because you might not be comfortable with my betting style.
 
Yep, I've always suspected I'm not betting to best advantage.

If I knew when I was going to have a good day...

:)
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
Yep, I've always suspected I'm not betting to best advantage.

If I knew when I was going to have a good day...

:)
Click to expand...

I think if you spend an extra twenty minutes and 1 unit a week putting together some e/w perms on the advantageous races you'd increase your bottom line drastically annually.
 
swedish chef said:
Well done Slim - I did Bless The Wings but didnt see this and Skybet were doing 6 places - Great start. :thumbsup::thumbsup:
Click to expand...

I'll grade NE as a loser because I leaned and took 5 places but rest assured anyone who's a snalll punter and can get on will make money following this thread. Both bets were exceptional value at the off especially NE.
 
Last edited:
#Bet4
#Bet5

Valero Texas Open
Top 20

Freddie Jacobson
€10 @ 12/1 (Bet365, Stan James, Betway)

Daniel Summerhays
€15 @ 16/5 (Sportingbet, Betfred)
 
Last edited:
Valero Texas Open
Top 20

Michael Kim 11/2 (Paddy Power) 6/1 (Stan James)
 
Last edited:
SlimChance said:
#Bet4
#Bet5

Valero Texas Open
Top 20

Freddie Jacobson
€10 @ 12/1 (Bet365, Stan James, Betway)

Daniel Summerhays
€15 @ 16/5 (Sportingbet, Betfred)
Click to expand...

ive backed Summerhays outright at 80/1. He has a great record here, this looks a solid bet.
 
#Bet7

Newmarket 3.35
Rivet 4/1
€25 win

Paddy Power Betfair Sportsbook Bet365 Stan James Unibet
 
Last edited:
Back
Top