The Strong Form Thread - Flat 2022

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
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As the advertising whizz-kid in 12 Angry Men says, "Let's put this up the flagpole and see who salutes it."

Rather than just one eyecatcher as per Barjon's thread, I thought I'd put this up for races which might otherwise go under the radar, not unlike the good Sandown maiden some time back that threw up several winners.

Please feel free to add any such races of your own.

The first race I'd like to offer is the 10f 3yo handicap at Newmarket on Tuesday 12 April, won by Educator (Raceform race ref #1829).

On a day when times appeared generally to match the form, I'm getting a big time figure for this race. Educator won by only a nose from High Fibre. Only seven ran and that and the close finish may be reasons the handicapper only put up the winner 5lbs (HF up 4lbs).

However, my time ratings for the race suggest he may have seriously under-estimated the form and the first five were a long way clear of the other two. I'll be watching those five with interest.

They are:

Educator (Haggas)
High Fibre (Beckett)
Israr (Gosdens)
Independent Act (Appleby)
Thunder Max (Hannon)
 
Reet’s thread for the flat, desert :) .

Certainly first two were strong, High Fibre is really well thought of and was fancied so Educator must be up there. Was a two length gap to the next, but I suppose you could say that anything that leaves an Appleby horse in fourth during his purple patch must represent strong going!
 
It's very strong form I agree and Israr (out of Taghrooda) High Fibre and the Godolphin animal all went into my tracker straight away. Prior to Newmarket Thunder Max had run third in a good looking race at Donny that Grand Alliance won before his Epsom Derby trial run last week. The second that day let the form down on Friday but War Horse isn't the most straightforward to my eyes and I'm more interested in Typewriter who was just behind Thunder Max and is from a top yard.
 
Desert Orchid said:
As the advertising whizz-kid in 12 Angry Men says, "Let's put this up the flagpole and see who salutes it."

Rather than just one eyecatcher as per Barjon's thread, I thought I'd put this up for races which might otherwise go under the radar, not unlike the good Sandown maiden some time back that threw up several winners.

Please feel free to add any such races of your own.

The first race I'd like to offer is the 10f 3yo handicap at Newmarket on Tuesday 12 April, won by Educator (Raceform race ref #1829).

On a day when times appeared generally to match the form, I'm getting a big time figure for this race. Educator won by only a nose from High Fibre. Only seven ran and that and the close finish may be reasons the handicapper only put up the winner 5lbs (HF up 4lbs).

However, my time ratings for the race suggest he may have seriously under-estimated the form and the first five were a long way clear of the other two. I'll be watching those five with interest.

They are:

Educator (Haggas)
High Fibre (Beckett)
Israr (Gosdens)
Independent Act (Appleby)
Thunder Max (Hannon)
Click to expand...

Israr is in my tracker for when he's on an easier track. He travelled best but hated the dip. I'll give him one more chance.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Sorry, barjon, that one has gone right over my head!
Click to expand...

Okay, I see now what you're referring to. My mistake. Just in the habit of checking the 'noted in running' thread and hadn't twigged there was a separate one for the Flat. Doh.

If Reet reads this then I offer my apologies to him too.
 
I think there's room for this thread and reet's horses noted one. Sometimes I'll pick one horse and one only from a race to track and other times I'll note the whole race. Example, the handicap at Musselburgh that Zarzyni won in mid April was massively franked over the weekend - the winner himself ran really well in the Palace House and the fifth won a handicap at Goodwood on Friday - so it's worth noting a few of the horses from that contest. Also on Friday Shine so Bright won at Newmarket and whilst he doesn't interest me and the third (Another Batt) is similarly exposed the second, Wizard D'Amour, raced towards the near side against a draw bias and is from a good yard so he is worth tracking.
 
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I agree, Euro, and am happy to contribute to reet's thread as and when.

To be honest, I probably won't contribute too often to this thread as I tend only to study the previous week's form on a Wednesday when I'm logging up my figures and don't really follow midweek racing beyond festival/televised (ie council TV) ones but every now and again I come across a race that makes me sit up and notice.

I do think Wizard D'Amour is worthy of a strong mention on reet's thread. I backed Shine So Bright in that race and felt afterwards I'd got lucky because the heavily-punted WDA, which already had a 'p' on my figures might have won had he been on the other side. I think it has a very decent handicap in it.

The chances are come Thursday of this week there will be two or three races from the Guineas meeting that will prove to be strong form worth keeping an eye on.
 
I had a quick dekko during the adverts in the film I'm watching.

The last race at Newmarket on Friday looks like a qualifier:

Full Result 4.45 Newmarket | 29 April 2022 | Racing Post

I'll crunch some numbers on Wednesday but a cursory glance at the time points to its being good form. Unfortunately, it looks like the commercial people will agree, as will the handicapper; we'll find out in the morning. On good ground, they were strung out like washing so maybe only the first two or three will be worth watching but I see RPRs go very high with the winner.

It isn't often in what might have been regarded as a run of the mill handicap you get the winner achieving an RPR 20lbs higher than the OR off which it ran but that's what has happened here.
 
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The winner, Legend Of Dubai, has been raised 'only' 11lbs.

He might remain well handicapped off that mark. My own ratings, particularly in handicaps, tend to be around 5lbs higher than RPRs and in a Class 3 handicap the top rated on RPRs is usually around 6/7lbs above the OR.
 
Either will do although obvs the Salisbury race will have fewer potential strong rivals in it.

Quoted below a post dessie made from the Guineas thread:
Desert Orchid said:
I've just done my first trawl of the times at the meeting.

Nobody seems to be alert to the fact that the time for the 2000 Guineas was only 14lbs faster than the 3yo CD race later in the day, the winner of which went up to 'only' 93.

Sectionals might have a way of explaining away the [lack of] differential but it doesn't exactly scream brilliance. But maybe the handicap will qualify for the strong form thread. I'll need to give it some more attention.

(I do think Coroebus is up to scratch but I worry about this kind of evidence.)
Click to expand...

https://www.racingpost.com/results/38/newmarket/2022-04-30/808658

I put Bullet Force in my tracker after watching the Guineas weekend races last Monday - the winner could be a group horse. Prior to this run Bullet Force had finished behind Spirit Catcher in a race at Musselburgh and just in front of him that day was a Charlie Fellowes animal that pissed up in a 3yo hc Friday at Ascot. This Ascot card is never on TV and always has loads of good 3yo handicaps - well worth a look.
 
Brayden Star just now at Salisbury.

I am not sure what's he beaten but he was very impressive.

I felt he would improve for the step up to ten furlongs and he really has done that today.

Landed a big gamble too by the looks of it.

A big handicap may await.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Educator (Haggas)
High Fibre (Beckett)
Israr (Gosdens)
Independent Act (Appleby)
Thunder Max (Hannon)
Click to expand...


Desert Orchid said:
I do think Wizard D'Amour is worthy of a strong mention on reet's thread. I backed Shine So Bright in that race and felt afterwards I'd got lucky because the heavily-punted WDA, which already had a 'p' on my figures might have won had he been on the other side. I think it has a very decent handicap in it.
Click to expand...

Israr declared for the London Gold Cup. Competitive race obviously.

Independent Act is out tomorrow at Newbury - 7/2 when the market opened he's come into 11/4. The fav is a Gosden who pissed up in a Lingfield novice (Havlin riding so that's a bonus).

Wizard D'amour re-opposes Shine so Bright at Newmarket on Saturday and is 2lbs better off. 11/2 is very fair.
 
Marb said:
Brayden Star just now at Salisbury.
Click to expand...
The race he ran in on debut is interesting
https://www.racingpost.com/results/38/newmarket/2022-04-13/807470

Outgate in second won at the Chester meeting beating a Balding horse I've put in my tracker (Koy Koy)

The fifth, Tylos, was 4th in this contest last Friday at Ascot

https://www.racingpost.com/results/2/ascot/2022-05-06/808746

The winner of that race is a Group horse and the second and third are both tracker worthy (Haggas and Balding as well)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
As the advertising whizz-kid in 12 Angry Men says, "Let's put this up the flagpole and see who salutes it."

Rather than just one eyecatcher as per Barjon's thread, I thought I'd put this up for races which might otherwise go under the radar, not unlike the good Sandown maiden some time back that threw up several winners.

Please feel free to add any such races of your own.

The first race I'd like to offer is the 10f 3yo handicap at Newmarket on Tuesday 12 April, won by Educator (Raceform race ref #1829).

On a day when times appeared generally to match the form, I'm getting a big time figure for this race. Educator won by only a nose from High Fibre. Only seven ran and that and the close finish may be reasons the handicapper only put up the winner 5lbs (HF up 4lbs).

However, my time ratings for the race suggest he may have seriously under-estimated the form and the first five were a long way clear of the other two. I'll be watching those five with interest.

They are:

Educator (Haggas)
High Fibre (Beckett)
Israr (Gosdens)
Independent Act (Appleby)
Thunder Max (Hannon)
Click to expand...

Independent Act runs tomorrow. Looks like there's money for it.

Edit - just saw Euro's post (#18) above.
 
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Marb said:
Brayden Star just now at Salisbury.

I am not sure what's he beaten but he was very impressive.

I felt he would improve for the step up to ten furlongs and he really has done that today.

Landed a big gamble too by the looks of it.

A big handicap may await.
Click to expand...

Declared Thursday at Sandown. He's short and I'm gonna take him on with War Horse. This Botti creature ran in a strong race at Donny in March where he was behind Grand Alliance (since second in the Epsom Derby trial and in front of Typewriter who was third in the Cheshire Oaks.) He returned to the track a month later and ran no sort of race despite being odds-on. The only reason(s) I can possibly fathom for this run is ground (first time on g/f) and also stable form which was poor at the time for Marco. He's 10/1 and worth a bet on Thursday,
 
Took 10s at Hills and BV. Beefy deductions obviously with the withdrawals.

What grates though is Bet Victor essentially paid me even money about a horse that sp'd at 7/2. 90p R4
 
Euronymous said:
Took 10s at Hills and BV. Beefy deductions obviously with the withdrawals.

What grates though is Bet Victor essentially paid me even money about a horse that sp'd at 7/2. 90p R4
Click to expand...

Good shout Euro I planned to back it earlier once Roger Charltons horse was a non runner but I have been busy on radio.
 
Euronymous said:
Took 10s at Hills and BV. Beefy deductions obviously with the withdrawals.

What grates though is Bet Victor essentially paid me even money about a horse that sp'd at 7/2. 90p R4
Click to expand...

That's disgusting. Bet365 give bog so at least you would have got 7/2.
 
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