The Strong Form Thread - Flat 2022

This race strikes me as strong form:

https://www.racingpost.com/results/38/newmarket/2022-05-13/809960

I watched this race live and remember thinking it was being quite strongly run. I haven't looked at the video again but, from memory I reckon there were a few in contention about three out but they've ended up strung out like soft-ground staying hurdlers. The ground this day was on the fast side.

I've now had a chance to check the clock and it's suggesting a very strongly run race, backed up by sectionals which point to a laboured finish all round.

I had the second and third as progressive types and the former was wearing a first-time hood and looked through the race very much like a proper trier; he had also been well backed at 5/2f. He has shrugged off the third in the final furlong but ultimately the winner, Nate The Great, has outstayed him by some way.

Take NTG out of the race and the form would still look strong.

All of this field will presumably need a few weeks to recover from this but the beaten horses may well be over-priced in their next run or two because of the distances by which they were beaten. The winner has gone up 6lbs, which might prove to be very lenient. The rise will almost certainly see him make the cut for the Northumberland Plate but, if he were mine, I'd be having him trained for the Ebor.

If there is a down side to the form it is that Harry Davies took 7lbs off the winner and if he's value for it it might be dangerous to back the horse until he or another top claimer are booked again.
 
Haydock, Saturday 21 May, Race Reference #3096

This was a modest Class 5 which I'd take a barge pole to beforehand but when I'm analysing times sometimes I come across one that makes me want to keep an eye on it. This is one such race.

It was the race that followed the Temple Stakes and run over the six furlongs. The principals in the Temple came from the back, suggesting a strong pace and true-run race but the Sandy Lane was more strongly run with a slower finish.

The race in question, won by Lil Guff, has similar sectional percentages as the Temple but for a 6f race they were pretty strung out at the end. The winner was well backed but had no answer to the winner's late run. I'm coming up with time ratings a long way in advance of the class of race, more in line with what I'd expect of a Class 3 or Class 2 race.

I reckon the first three are worth watching in their next three runs:

1. Lil Guff
2. Gidwa
3. True Jem

Whether they'll be backable is another question.


Full Result 4.20 Haydock | 21 May 2022 | Racing Post
 
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So the horse in green with black cap out of 13, if you watch, was all over the place in the first couple of furlongs and then again 2f out (it looks like Joe Fanning wanted a way through and didn't/couldn't get it, rather than the horse was pulling and he was trying to restrain?). Ends up a strong looking 4th once he got a clear run. The horse in question - Prayer Mat.

Sadly.....the RP notes say 'eyecatcher'. Not what we wanted!!. But still, probably needs to go with the three?

The other angle here, of course, is the principals may have needed the strong pace, and will still be worth remembering for a while if beaten in coming events.

PS Just noticed the 5th Raydoun also got the dreaded 'eyecatcher'
 
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chaumi said:
So the horse in green with black cap out of 13, if you watch, was all over the place in the first couple of furlongs and then again 2f out (it looks like Joe Fanning wanted a way through and didn't/couldn't get it, rather than the horse was pulling and he was trying to restrain?). Ends up a strong looking 4th once he got a clear run. The horse in question - Prayer Mat.

Sadly.....the RP notes say 'eyecatcher'. Not what we wanted!!. But still, probably needs to go with the three?

The other angle here, of course, is the principals may have needed the strong pace, and will still be worth remembering for a while if beaten in coming events.

PS Just noticed the 5th Raydoun also got the dreaded 'eyecatcher'
Click to expand...

I was trying to keep the "eyecatcher" bits tae masel'!!
 
I think I've come across another strong race:

York May 21, 4.42 (Race Ref #3117)

On a day of seemingly true-run races (bar the fillies' G2 which was very slow), this race is working out fastest relative to its class.

The first two have gone clear and are worth special note but I wouldn't be at all surprised if the beaten horses also franked the form. A Godolphin was third and I also noticed one that Euro had mentioned, Bullet Force, could only manage fourth. It's possible he has run as well as Euro might have hoped, only to have been beaten by especially unexposed types.

Time will tell but the sectionals aren't up yet.

The first two, Exminster and Golden Voice have gone into my tracker.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Haydock, Saturday 21 May, Race Reference #3096

This was a modest Class 5 which I'd take a barge pole to beforehand but when I'm analysing times sometimes I come across one that makes me want to keep an eye on it. This is one such race.

It was the race that followed the Temple Stakes and run over the six furlongs. The principals in the Temple came from the back, suggesting a strong pace and true-run race but the Sandy Lane was more strongly run with a slower finish.

The race in question, won by Lil Guff, has similar sectional percentages as the Temple but for a 6f race they were pretty strung out at the end. The winner was well backed but had no answer to the winner's late run. I'm coming up with time ratings a long way in advance of the class of race, more in line with what I'd expect of a Class 3 or Class 2 race.

I reckon the first three are worth watching in their next three runs:

1. Lil Guff
2. Gidwa
3. True Jem

Whether they'll be backable is another question.


Full Result 4.20 Haydock | 21 May 2022 | Racing Post
Click to expand...

Lil Guff runs tomorrow evening, 7.55 Haydock. 3/1.

If it's over last week's race it should win. But it's maybe a biggish 'if'.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Haydock, Saturday 21 May, Race Reference #3096

This was a modest Class 5 which I'd take a barge pole to beforehand but when I'm analysing times sometimes I come across one that makes me want to keep an eye on it. This is one such race.

It was the race that followed the Temple Stakes and run over the six furlongs. The principals in the Temple came from the back, suggesting a strong pace and true-run race but the Sandy Lane was more strongly run with a slower finish.

The race in question, won by Lil Guff, has similar sectional percentages as the Temple but for a 6f race they were pretty strung out at the end. The second was well backed but had no answer to the winner's late run. I'm coming up with time ratings a long way in advance of the class of race, more in line with what I'd expect of a Class 3 or Class 2 race.

I reckon the first three are worth watching in their next three runs:

1. Lil Guff
2. Gidwa
3. True Jem

Whether they'll be backable is another question.


Full Result 4.20 Haydock | 21 May 2022 | Racing Post
Click to expand...

Lil Guff runs tomorrow evening at Yarmouth in the 7.29 (Class 4). 7/2 in places. I've backed her but am concerned that the jockey booking might be a negative and I'd have preferred more time since that last race.
 
chaumi said:
So the horse in green with black cap out of 13, if you watch, was all over the place in the first couple of furlongs and then again 2f out (it looks like Joe Fanning wanted a way through and didn't/couldn't get it, rather than the horse was pulling and he was trying to restrain?). Ends up a strong looking 4th once he got a clear run. The horse in question - Prayer Mat.

Sadly.....the RP notes say 'eyecatcher'. Not what we wanted!!. But still, probably needs to go with the three?

The other angle here, of course, is the principals may have needed the strong pace, and will still be worth remembering for a while if beaten in coming events.

PS Just noticed the 5th Raydoun also got the dreaded 'eyecatcher'
Click to expand...

Prayer Matt also holds an engagement tomorrow: Leicester 2.30, 7/2 available.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Lil Guff runs tomorrow evening at Yarmouth in the 7.29 (Class 4). 7/2 in places. I've backed her but am concerned that the jockey booking might be a negative and I'd have preferred more time since that last race.
Click to expand...

Fairly non-committal from Daniel Kubler, but no obvious sign of fears around coming back too soon..........

"Lil Guff victim of the abandonment of Haydock on Friday, this was plan B. Sets the standard based on her recent Haydock win but a couple of lightly raced sorts open to improvement could be dangers, should run another solid race."
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Lil Guff runs tomorrow evening at Yarmouth in the 7.29 (Class 4). 7/2 in places. I've backed her but am concerned that the jockey booking might be a negative and I'd have preferred more time since that last race.
Click to expand...

Didn't win anywhere near as easily as I'd hoped but a win's a win. I'll have a R4 to factor in but should still beat the 11/5 SP.
 
To be honest, bj, it's almost embarrassing to take credit for it.

Maybe if it had won by five lengths (or at 20/1)...

But thanks anyway.

(Not that I was tipping it - just following through on the original post.)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
To be honest, bj, it's almost embarrassing to take credit for it.

Maybe if it had won by five lengths (or at 20/1)...

But thanks anyway.

(Not that I was tipping it - just following through on the original post.)
Click to expand...


According to RP she ran the best comparative time of the meeting and at 6lb higher that was a pretty good performance which supports your original post. So credit is due, whether you like it or not :D
 
Desert Orchid said:
Came back in to 6s through the day but I've only just seen the replay. Not off the proverbial. Found more arses than Galileo in a covering season and finished full of running.
Click to expand...

On the plus side, still looking good overall. I think PM might have been done by the ground. Looked soft enough to me, softer than Haydock, anyway..

PS "Found more arses than Galileo in a covering season" Always good to go to bed chuckling :-)
 
In the Oaks, I’m on Concert Hall at 14/1, my only surviving ante-post bet. Yesterday evening I spent a lot of time checking the Godolphin filly’s time rating and it stands up next to the other good races on that card, including Cachet's 1000G win, and would maybe qualify for this thread but there were other lower-class races that were made to look extraordinarily fast for the their level so I have to distrust those time ratings. Still, Godolphin wouldn’t run this filly if they didn’t like her. If she goes and wins I'll put up the lower-level races later on that card which worked out very fast.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think I've come across another strong race:

York May 21, 4.42 (Race Ref #3117)

On a day of seemingly true-run races (bar the fillies' G2 which was very slow), this race is working out fastest relative to its class.

The first two have gone clear and are worth special note but I wouldn't be at all surprised if the beaten horses also franked the form. A Godolphin was third and I also noticed one that Euro had mentioned, Bullet Force, could only manage fourth. It's possible he has run as well as Euro might have hoped, only to have been beaten by especially unexposed types.

Time will tell but the sectionals aren't up yet.

The first two, Exminster and Golden Voice have gone into my tracker.
Click to expand...

On the basis of this, Master Richard looked somewhat of a good bet in the 6.06 Doncaster, confidence enhanced by Ann D being on a treble. He had it a furlong out, but fair play to the eventual winner (by an inch!!), she fought back bravely after looking beat (although MR jockey looked a little unbalanced for a second, maybe this is what cost the win).

I guess - given this was a Class 5 - you can't exactly say it franked the form, but probably didn't do it any harm.
 
Desert

Wonder if you’d take a look at the 4:51 Doncaster today. Looked a pretty hot race for a Class 5 Novice to me.
 
Desert

Wonder if you’d take a look at the 4:51 Doncaster today. Looked a pretty hot race for a Class 5 Novice to me.
 
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