The thoughts of Nick Mordin.

JEZKI AND MY TENT OR YOURS CAN STILL WIN AGAIN THIS SEASON

The fields for the three novice hurdles at this year’s Cheltenham Festival were all the smallest in the last quarter century and quite possibly smallest ever. The reasons are obvious:

(1) the massive increase in pattern races

(2) the emergence of competing Spring Festivals at Aintree, Fairyhouse and Punchestown (3) the addition of an extra day and new novice and juvenile hurdles to the Cheltenham Festival.

The solution is clearly in the hands of the Pattern Committee. They have allowed the percentage of jumps races carrying pattern status in Britain and Ireland to grow from just over 4% in 1996 to just shy of 6% last year. If the rate of increase continues in 128 years every national hunt race will be Listed or Graded.

In the past it has mostly been the many bogus Group 1 and Grade 1 races that have seen their field sizes depleted by the option of even easier targets at the same level made possible by the proliferation of such contests. It’s worrying that the problem of Group race inflation has got to the point where the competitiveness of even genuine championship contests is being affected.

It was certainly odd to see just twelve horses line up for the Supreme Novices, a race that is normally a cavalry charge which opens for the Cheltenham Festival. And it’s hard to argue that this didn’t make it easier for CHAMPAGNE FEVER (41) to make all the running. . In the bigger field that normally lines up for the race he would surely have been pressed to go faster in the early stages and would have had less left to repel the late charges of the second and third.

That said I have to say this was a seriously big run by Champagne Fever, his best ever on my ratings. He's won six of the last seven times he's run less than two and a half miles and ran Jezki to less than two lengths in the Royal Bond in his sole loss.

Next year the plan is to go chasing with Champagne Fever. In this regard trainer Willie Mullins commented "We've schooled him and he already jumps fences better than hurdles - he is electric over a fence."

Of course it's one thing schooling at home over fences but quite another when a horse is being crowded by rivals while jumping at top speed in an actual race. In addition it has to be said that Champagne Fever looks a little light-framed for chasing. However if he takes to the bigger jumps he could well prove very hard to beat as a novice since novices find it harder to make up ground on a front runner like Champagne Fever than more experienced chasers due to them being more apt to get pressured into a jumping error if asked to go flat out to close down the leader.

Runner up MY TENT OR YOURS (41) moved well for a long way and looked to be going a lot better than the winner turning in (he went 1-2 in running). But he couldn't quite peg back Champagne Fever and lost by half a length.

The stats suggest that the big win My Tent Or yours scored in the valuable Betfair Hurdle on his previous start took the edge off him.

I say this because since 1989 there have been 67 Supreme Novices runners that did not contest a novice hurdle in their prep race and they all lost. Twenty one of the 67 horses had reached the first four in a valuable handicap or Graded or Listed hurdle against experienced rivals just like My Tent Or Yours had

The lesson seems clear. If you want to win the Supreme Novices with a horse you should stick to novice company for its prep race.

The reason for this I think is that in novice races a horse can get away with having an easy race. This is because the pace is slower and the opposition weaker than it is in races for experienced hurdlers. Horses which prep in races other than novice events therefore cede an edge in freshness which is important this late in the season.

It’s hard not to think of My Tent Or Yours as a replacement for Darlan who so sadly died just before Cheltenham. Darlan had masses of pace just like My Tent Or Yours and was on his way to winning the Betfair Hurdle when falling at the last prior to running second in the Supreme Novices. He followed up by winning the big two mile novice hurdle at Aintree. Not surprisingly that’s where My Tent Or Yours will now be heading.

Given his abundant tactical speed I have a hard time seeing how My Tent Or Yours can get beat before the Champion Hurdle next season. He’ll surely be able to swamp his rivals for finishing speed in the Christmas Hurdle and whatever other races he contests before the big meeting. This being so I’d say it’s a smart move to take the 10-1 the bookies are currently offering about him for the Champion Hurdle and trade it back at what will surely be much shorter odds on the day of the big race.

Third placed JEZKI (40) came to challenge in the closing stages but bunny hopped the last. He hit the flight first with his front legs and then his back legs as the flight swung back. This cost him more ground than a normal jumping error. The immediate impact was to knock him back by a length but the overall impact was probably a little more. He ended up running third by under three lengths. My suspicion is that he'd still have been third but by a length or a length and a half but for the mistake.

As I've noted before. horses with a turn of foot like Jezki, especially those that are slightly below average in size as he is, often need a smallish field to produce their best form. Their late run gets interrupted by traffic in bigger fields.

This being so it is worth noting that prior to this big run Jezki had won six out of six in fields of twelve or less but failed to reach the first four both times he'd tackled bigger fields.

In the old days this likely preference for small fields would have prompted me to dismiss his chances of winning a Champion Hurdle. But the last four renewals of the race have all attracted fields of twelve or less.

The re-match between Jezki and Champagne Fever at Punchestown is now on. The score is now 2-1 in favour of Champagne Fever, but his two wins over Jezki were both at Cheltenham. The way Jezki totally outpaced Champagne Fever in the closing stages of the Royal Bond tells me that at Punchestown he's likely to get his revenge,

Fourth placed UN ATOUT (34) ran below his best, mostly due to costly jumping errors three out and at the last. he chased the winner for a long way before the first three got away from him in the closing stages.

Earlier Un Atout didn't have to come off the bridle to win a novice hurdle at Naas over two miles in pattern class time by nineteen lengths. He had won his two previous starts (also minor races) in similar fashion.

So far Un Atout has only clocked a Listed class time. I'd be pretty darned certain he can run faster over longer, especially over fences. But it is worth bearing in mind that his earlier form was all on heavy ground. As his trainer Willie Mullins says "is very strong on that ground". This is surely because he's built and bred to be a three mile chaser.

Un Atout's sire Robin Des Champs did get one Grade 1 winner at two miles. But that was in a very strongly run race on heavy ground. His other six Grade 1 winners were all over three miles plus. Un Atout's dam was a maiden but her four other winning progeny were all best over two and a half miles or more.

There's no question that Un Atout has the physique of a three mile chaser. And Willie Mullins says "he's really a staying chaser in the making."

When I look at Un Atout I think of another current Irish novice called Don Cossack who is also built and bred to be a three mile chaser. Don Cossack has looked pretty good over two miles against weak opposition and earned about the same speed and handicap ratings as Un Atout. But last time out against two top class rivals he was left floundering by their superior pace in the closing stages, getting beat almost a dozen lengths into third. The fact that the same thing happened to Un Atout here simply means he needs longer and fences just like Don Cossack. Next season he'll surely be back for the Jewson or more likely the RSA Chase at Cheltenham.





PACE MADE THE RACE FOR BOBS WORTH

Sectional times show that the leaders went off a little too fast in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and this hurt the overall time.

There's a path just before the winning post and if you time the runners from when they reach this point you'll find they clocked 3m 10.06 second the first time around but slowed to 3m 16.73 on the second circuit.

In between the third and second last fences the race looked to concern SIR DES CHAMPS (35-pace adjusted 39) who was going a bit better than LONG RUN (35-pace adjusted 39) who was alongside, with the pair five lengths clear of the rest. Soon after though the over-fast early pace told and BOBS WORTH (37-pace adjusted 41) came through to catch the pair who both ended up really tired in the final 100 yards.

It's very hard to judge the pace on ground that's being made steadily softer by rain. So I don't think it's fair to criticise Tony McCoy and Sam Waley-Cohen for kicking for home too soon on the second and third. It's only with the benefit of hindsight and sectional times that it's possible to see the tactical error they made.

I liked the way Sir Des Champs showed such class to rally when desperately tired to come back and take second place after the winner had cut across him and forced him to switch when taking the lead. In a more evenly run race I'd be rather confident about betting Sir Des Champs to turn the form around.

However I can't take anything away from Bobs Worth. His rider Barry Geraghty shrewdly waited till the two leaders had battled each other into exhaustion before asking his mount for his big effort. The win means that Bobs Worth has now won all five times he's run at Cheltenham, including three Festival victories.

Long Run did really well to hold on for third seeing the pace he set. He hit a few fences but he always seems to do that and has never fallen. His record of reaching the first three in all 25 of his starts is outstanding. He may not be quite the horse he was a couple of seasons ago but is clearly still capable of winning at the top level.

THE GIANT BOLSTER (33-pace adjusted 37) did well to finish fourth on ground too soft for him. He has completed the course in six jumps races with 14 runners or less on ground where the going stick reading was 6.8 or higher. He won four of those six races. In one of the others he ran second in lat year's Cheltenham Gold Cup. When he encounters a faster surface he'll be a threat to win again.

CAPTAIN CHRIS (29-pace adjusted 33) jumped right repeatedly, as he does on left handed courses. But he ran a whole lot better than the last time he tried a long distance at Cheltenham. The next time he runs on a right handed track he'll be interesting.

SILVINIACO CONTI was a close third and still moving quite well when capsizing on landing three out. But my feeling was that he was just beginning to get stretched by the two leaders and would probably have tired more than them to finish around the same position The Giant Bolster ended up. His performance added to my doubts about his ability to last more than three miles or jump fences effectively in a field bigger than eight.........
 
NEPTUNE A RED HOT RACE

Sectional times suggest that the Neptune Novices Hurdle was a red hot race this year. The way the field picked up from the fifth last was pretty remarkable. The novices gained 5.27 seconds on the handicappers from this point.

The winner was THE NEW ONE (35-pace adjusted 42) who picked up really well to score by four lengths.

The New One is an athletic sort that clearly has a smart turn of foot. If he hadn't run green at Cheltenham last year and idled when losing narrowly in his prep for this he might well have won all his nine starts to date. I can now see why he was able to beat the smart My Tent Or Yours into second in last year's Aintree Festival Bumper. He clearly has plenty of speed. So the plan to cut him back to two miles next season and shoot for the Champion Hurdle makes perfect sense. Meanwhile it would be fascinating to see him tackle Annie Power, the best two mile novice hurdler on my ratings.

Runner up RULE THE WORLD (41) is more of a staying type than the winner. So he cannot have been as well suited to the way the race was run. His sire Sulamani has yet to have a runner over fences but Rule The World continues to look a good prospect for the bigger jumps.

Third placed PONT ALEXANDRE (39) has a lot of ability but lacks a serious turn of foot. So he too cannot have been best suited by the quickening pace from five out and the near sprint finish from two out. He's already shown that he can stand off and produce a bold jump over a hurdle. This will stand him in good stead when he goes chasing next season.

CHATTERBOX (38) lost his unbeaten record but ran up to his best to take fourth. His dam is a half sister to RSA Chase fourth Unioniste and scored her only win in a two and a half mile chase. No doubt this is the route Chatterbox will be taking next term.

MISK (37) keeps running well in big novice hurdles but has yet to earn anything better than a Listed class rating from me. Sixth placed TAQUIN DU SEUIL (37) on the other hand has earned bigger ratings from me. The near sprint finish was probably not helpful for him as he's a proper stayer. He's another that looks a good prospect for novice chases next term.







... AND SO WAS THE BUMPER

I was a bit surprised to see BRIAR HILL (41) charge from the back to win the Cheltenham Festival Bumper in fast time by seven lengths. I thought the two miles would prove a bit short for him in Grade 1 company. But the combination of a strong pace, slow ground and a testing course helped make the race more of a stamina test than most races over such a short trip.

Briar Hill cost his new owners 100,000 pounds after he’d won a maiden point to point in Ireland by three lengths from a horse that won a novice hurdle next time. He does look built for chasing.

On his only start under rules before Cheltenham Briar Hill contested a five runner Bumper race at Thurles which was run at a crawl for the first half mile. He disputed the lead throughout and it was only in the last quarter mile that he was asked to race properly. He sprinted home well enough but looked a little awkward and uncomfortable being asked to go so fast. He covered the last quarter mile only a couple of seconds faster than the winner of the mares maiden hurdle earlier on the card where they’d gone a strong pace throughout. If he had the pace to win a Grade 1 event over two miles I thought he would surely have been able to produce better acceleration. But I hadn't considered what would happen in a more strongly run contest.

If he were mine I'd be tempted to put Briar Hill straight back over fences. But he's only five and ran so fast here it makes sense to try him over hurdles next season.

REGAL ENCORE (38) ran a good race to take second. But it's worth noting that he avoided the traffic in the race by being kept wide most of the way. This may well have improved his finishing position.

Regal Encore quickened away to win a Chepstow Bumper easily on his previous start, having taken one on Southwell’s Fibresand earlier.

He certainly looked good in that race, quickening away in the style of a good horse and showed he could run faster here. Anthony Honeyball rates him the best horse he has trained. He's more a hurdling type and looks a solid prospect for the good two mile novice hurdles next season.

Third placed GOLANTILLA (37) was the pick on my figures, having earned a rating of 39 from me on his previous start. He kept on strongly after moving into contention rounding the home turn.

Golantilla hosed up by ten lengths in a maiden point to point for four year olds in December then repeated the trick in a Cork Bumper. In that race he accelerated sharply off an ordinary pace to clock a decent time. He came home over the last mile a remarkable 4.4 seconds faster than multiple Grade 1 winner Blackstairmountain even when I add in the 0.7 second per hurdle. My sectional timing formula indicates it was a performance that would win most renewals of the Cheltenham Festival Bumper.

Golantilla’s trainer said after that race “That was exactly what I knew he'd do. This horse is an absolute machine. We have some decent handicappers at home and they can't get anywhere near him. We might go to Naas or Fairyhouse with him now or else straight to Cheltenham. The Champion Bumper is the aim with this fella and always has been.”

The owner turned down 190,000 guineas for Golantilla at Brightwells sales and switched him to new trainer Tony Martin for Cheltenham. I'd say Martin has a potential Grade 1 winner on his hands, and Golantilla could well start winning at that level in the big Bumper at the Punchestown Festival.

THE LIQUIDATOR (37) was always prominent and kept on well for fourth.

The Liquidator is a chasing sort like many of these, but he’s more athletic than most and looks a future two and a half mile chaser rather than a three miler. He had already run in two big Bumper races, which is unusual for horses in this race.

First time out he ran in the valuable sales race at Fairyhouse in which he and two others kicked clear in impressive style from three furlongs out, leaving the rest of a big field sixteen lengths and more behind. He kept on strongly but just went under by half a length.

Next time out The Liquidator had his first run for David Pipe and ran second in a strongly run Listed Bumper over this course and distance in November. He was held up early in eighth place, about ten lengths off the strong gallop the leaders were setting. He moved up quite rapidly coming down the hill as they headed into the last half mile and was in second place as they turned into the straight. He’d been niggled along from some way out though and began to tire as they kept climbing the uphill finish. The winner got away from him as he tired and he ended up second by five lengths.

Switched to a minor race next time The Liquidator hosed up by 24 lengths. His performance at Cheltenham suggests he probably wants two and a half miles to produce his best.

Fifth placed PURPLE BAY (37) was moving eye-catchingly well rounding the home turn but found himself caught in traffic behind rivals. He picked up well once in the clear and is clearly smart.

On his only previous start Purple Bay was ridden with great confidence at the tail of the field. And it was easy to see why when he surged forward when barely asked to do so entering the straight. He looked set to win easily until you looked across and saw Wilde Blu Yonder also full of running. The pair duelled over the last quarter mile and pulled well clear of the previous winner Un Ace, covering that part of the race a remarkable 4.5 seconds faster than the pattern class Minella Forfitness in a good hurdle on the same card.

Purple Bay always looked to be going that bit better and was still running strongly crossing the line though he only prevailed by a short head.

The early pace was good enough to produce an unusually good time for a bumper race. When I factor in the fast final quarter mile it pushes the pace adjusted rating sky high. Clearly it was a big performance.

Purple Bay is a good moving sort that has the size for jumping but also a smart turn of foot. It could be that he will prove better suited by faster ground than he encountered at Cheltenham. I'd be wary of opposing him if he runs again this season. And I'd expect him to prove a Cheltenham candidate over hurdles next term.

PURE SCIENCE (37) stayed on really well in the closing stages to finish sixth.

He is a powerful chasing sort that’s so strong he looks a bit muscle-bound.

His strength certainly helped him on his debut at Warwick when he kept on ploughing through the soft ground till he eventually began to power clear in the last furlong. But we saw the flip side of his strength over speed disposition when he floundered in a sprint finish at Newbury.

When the leaders finally began to slow in the last furlong at Newbury both he Caledonia finished with a rush. When he gets the chance to run longer distances, especially over fences he should be able to win good races.
 
OUR CONOR RUNS SERIOUSLY FAST AGAIN

OUR CONOR (42) had earned the biggest speed rating I've given a juvenile hurdler since Detroit City back in 2006 when taking a hot renewal of the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown. He was even more impressive when running away with the Triumph Hurdle by fifteen lengths. After chasing the tearaway Diakali he surged clear with very little effort to win full of running.

In the last quarter century only three other horses have won the Triumph Hurdle by more than eight lengths. One of the three was Katchit who won the Champion Hurdle next year. Another was Oh So Risky who ran second by half a length in the Champion Hurdle the following season.

There are a lot of smart young hurdlers around right now, but it's hard to argue with the bookies who have made Our Conor favourite for the Champion Hurdle.

Fourth placed DIAKALI (33) had run a good deal faster when five lengths second to Our Conor in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle. Here he probably went a bit too fast in the lead. He jumped well, except for going a bit big at a couple. I can readily see him taking to fences. Meanwhile he's fast enough to win any juvenile hurdle where he can avoid Our Conor.



BOSTON BOB A SOLID GOLD CUP PROSPECT

I was impressed with the way BOSTON BOB (39) quickly ran past his rivals to take the lead approaching two out in the RSA Chase. Unfortunately things then went horribly wrong on the run to the last.

Boston Bob had drifted towards the running rail as horses often do. And for some reason he seemed unaware that that was putting him on a collision course with the wing of the last fence. At the last moment he saw the problem, jinked right and tried to put in an extra step to correct himself. But it was all too late. He was on top of the fence now and just couldn't rise in time, crashing through it then crashing to the ground on the other side where he instantly rolled sideways and found himself on his feet looking at the other horses going away up the run in.

I can't see why there's any debate about whether Boston Bob would have won this race. He would surely have done so clearly but for the mess he got himself into running up to the last.

This run showed once more that stamina is Boston Bob's strong suit. But he has good acceleration too. Few horses can withstand the powerful late run he's able to make at the end of a race.

Boston Bob's second place finish in last year's Albert Bartlett Memorial still raises the question of whether he can produce his best on fast ground. However if he hadn't run green when losing a bumper by half a length and fallen here he would have won his other eight starts. He looks a solid Cheltenham Gold Cup prospect to me.

My bet is Boston Bob will prove capable of handling faster ground over fences. Hopefully he will recover from this race quickly enough to have a chance to prove it in the Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown.

The winner LORD WINDERMERE (38) is a tall, rangy, long striding, sort that understandably ran a clunker the only time he encountered really fast ground. But otherwise he's been admirably consistent despite running over distances that look short of his best before this run.

Lord Windermere stumbled and lost ground at the path on the home turn, just as Sizing Europe did on the same day. But he rallied to pick up strongly and win by almost two lengths. I don't really see him as a Gold Cup type. He actually looks built to go four miles to me and might well end up as a Grand National prospect in time. If he were mine I'd be running him in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse rather than tackling pacier types in the Champion Novices Chase at Punchestown.

Runner up LYREEN LEGEND (38) would only have been third if Boston Bog hadn't fallen. And it's hard not to notice that he's won all three times he's run in races worth 10,000 or less to the winner since losing on his racecourse debut but lost all but one of his other eleven starts.





SIMONSIG NOT AS GOOD OVER FENCES AS HE WAS OVER HURDLES

I remember an episode of 'House' on TV when Dr House resists the idea of giving a patient an MRI. His reason was that if you took a bunch of people off the street and put them into an MRI it would probably show a couple of things wrong with them that weren't actually affecting them.

I think it's the same way with racehorses. If you put them through a thorough veterinary exam right after a race you're bound to find something wrong. Racing is so stressful it'd be surprising if you didn't. This being so I have to say I am not keen on the current vogue for instantly finding something to explain away even a slightly disappointing run for a high profile horse in a big race.

No doubt Nicky Henderson is being honest when he reports that SIMONSIG (40) scoped slightly wrong after his win in the Arkle. But the horse still ran as fast as he had in either of his two previous wins over fences according to my ratings. The harsh truth seems to be that good as he is over fences he is not quite as good as he was over hurdles.

Yes Simonsig made a blunder at the ninth fence, but it didn't seem to cost him that much. And yes he was perhaps idling a little on the run in, but he was driven along and didn't find much. As I see it when he gets taken on by a genuinely top class rival that's suited to the circumstances of the race he is going to get beaten over fences.

Runner up was the admirably consistent BAILY GREEN (39) who had won seven in a row prior to a narrow loss in a Grade 2 and a good three lengths third to Arvika Ligeonniere in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase. He stayed on strongly but couldn't quite get to the winner. I've suggested before that he's probably better over two and a half miles and the way he stayed on here points that way once more. So I like the idea of him going up to that distance next time.

Fourth placed OVERTURN (28) did his thing of dragging his back legs through four of the first five jumps. At that stage I thought he was soon going to get stretched into a major jumping error. But he then bounced over the next five fences, clearing them properly with all his legs until finally he made a dreadful error at the third last.

Approaching three out it became clear just how small Overturn is compared with most steeplechasers. For a few strides the fence almost hid him from view completely. I expected to see him pop into sight as he jumped the fence but instead he emerged on the other side by crashing right through the jump. Jockey Jason Maguire did well to stay in the saddle after being thrown forward sharply by this juddering error. It basically stopped Overturn in his tracks and he was soon fading to finish thirty lengths behind the winner.

What I find encouraging about this run is the way Overturn was able to ping five consecutive jumps out of ground that just didn't have enough bounce in it for him to clear the fences effectively. On faster ground in a small field I can readily see him improving markedly on this run if he's kept to steeplechasing. And let's not forget he's got Cup class ability on the flat and is fast enough to win a Grade 1 over hurdles.

The giant ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE moved well and pressed Overturn in the early stages. He then seemed to hurt his back by overjumping the first open ditch and landing rather heavily. At the next fence he barely bent his back at all and dragged his hind legs through the obstacle as a result. At the jump after that he didn't bend his back at all, so his rear end ploughed the fence. Ruby Walsh wisely pulled him up soon after.

It would have been useful if the racecourse vet had examined Arvika Ligeonniere after the race but I guess it would only be in the days following the race that the extent of the problem the horse had could have been diagnosed.

There's often a trade off between size and soundness with the best steeplechasers. The bigger a horse is the easier it is for them to clear a fence but the risk of injury is increased because they hit the ground so hard. Let's hope that Arvika Ligeonniere can recover from this soon as he'd shown such tremendous ability earlier.

It might simply be that Arvika Ligeonniere is so big he has difficulty coming down the hill at Cheltenham. After all he was travelling like a winner in last year's Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham before fading away to nothing. He bounced back from that wide margin loss to win at the Punchestown Festival next time. However a better explanation for that run is probably that he just didn't stay the three miles. And it's hard to get away from the clear visual impression that Arvika Ligeonniere was experiencing pain in his back after jumping the open ditch this time around.



STRONG EARLY PACE AFFECTED CHAMPION HURDLE

Thanks to the sectional times produced by Turftrax it's easy to see why the Champion Hurdle was run 2.39 seconds slower than the Supreme Novices. Runner up ROCK ON RUBY (33- pace adjusted 40) took the field along at too strong a pace in the early stages. Lit up by fist time blinkers he charged around the first turn from the second to the third jump in just 42.94 seconds compared with the 45.03 seconds that Champagne Fever clocked for the same part of the race.

The relatively slow final time suggests that this big early move hurt the chances of Rock On Ruby as well as those of Zarkandar and Countrywide Flame who stuck close to him early. On the other hand the winner Hurricane Fly ended up being fortunate that he was flat to the boards and some way adrift early because this meant he didn't waste as much energy as his three big rivals early.

It could be that Rock On Ruby is such a strong horse and stays so well it was a sound tactic to make the race such a serious test of stamina. In any event with only three runs so far this season he should certainly be fresh enough to have a decent chance in the Champion Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. There's also the option of the Aintree Hurdle but I don't like the fact he's lost all four times he's tried the two and a half miles of that race.

HURRICANE FLY (34-pace adjusted 41) is justly renowned for his finishing speed but won this time on stamina more than anything else. He was stretched by the searching gallop Rock On Ruby set early but came through to challenge two out and kept on strongly once he'd hit the front. I can readily see why trainer Willie Mullins is convinced he'll get the three miles and a furlong in the French Champion Hurdle.

It's worth bearing in mind that third placed COUNTRYWIDE FLAME (32-pace adjusted 39) is only a five year old. Since See You Then won the Champion Hurdle back in 1985 only one horse that young has taken the big race even though 82 have tried. This was Katchit in 2008 - and he had way more hurdling experience than most horses his age (a dozen previous starts over timber).

Seeing how close Countrywide Flame stuck to the over-fast early pace he did really well to keep on to get beat just four and a quarter lengths into third. The stats say he's certainly worth bearing in mind for next year. Three of the last six five year olds to lose but finish fifth or better in the Champion Hurdle went on to win the next running of the race.

Next up for Countrywide Flame is the Aintree Hurdle. A lot of horses which reached the first three in the Champion Hurdle have gone on to contest this race. I don't have full records before 1988. However, it's a reasonable assumption that roughly the same proportion of horses which placed 123 in the Champion Hurdle have contested the Aintree Hurdle over the years. If that's the case then 13 of the 50 horses which reached the first three in the Champion Hurdle then ran in the Aintree Hurdle scored.

Those stats make it look like Countrywide Flame has a good chance at Aintree. But the stats are worse for five year olds and far worse for horses that haven't previously won over two and a half miles. So I don't think the race is a good option for Countrywide Flame.

The horse that interests me most from the Champion Hurdle is ZARKANDAR (31-pace adjusted 38). He did really well to finish a good fourth after chasing Rock On Ruby hard all the way.

Zarkandar was unbeaten in three hurdle outings as a juvenile when he took the Triumph Hurdle at this meeting and the Grade 1 juvenile event at the Aintree Festival

Things didn’t go perfectly for him last year. He was off till February due to coughing then had a hard race winning the valuable Betfair Hurdle first time according to trainer Paul Nicholls. He hadn’t recovered from the effort when fifth in the Champion Hurdle. He then went and fell at Aintree.

After Zarkandar had won his seasonal debut this season Nicholls said “He never looked like that (physically) last year - he was never right after the coughing and class got him through the Betfair Hurdle but he wasn't right in the Champion. He is obviously better as he hasn't been trained for this race and when he came back he didn't want to school after his fall at Aintree.”

Zarkandar gave the smart Prospect Wells seventeen pounds and a neck beating in that race first time out this term. In addition his rival was gifted a soft lead, so it was a good performance.

I liked the way that Zarkandar won the Grade 2 International Hurdle next time. He had to stand off a sustained challenge from Rock On Ruby and then another from Grandouet. But he just kept grinding away through the mud and wore them both down to score by two lengths.

On his most recent start before the Champion Hurdle Zarkandar had an easier time to win the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. He was always going best, kicked on early in the straight and merely had to be kept up to his work in the closing stages to score by four and a half lengths from Khyber Kim.

It's worth bearing in mind that the only two losses Zarkandar has suffered in nine completed hurdles starts came in the Champion Hurdle - first as a five year old and now when chasing an unsustainably fast early gallop.

At this stage Zarkandar has not yet run a tremendously fast time. He keeps on earning the same speed rating of 40 from me which is a couple of lengths per mile behind Hurricane Fly's best. But this is exactly what you’d expect with a horse that was a five year old last year and unbeaten this season. The reserve energy he displayed at the finish of the Kingwell Hurdle while matching his best rating tells me he could very well run that little bit faster next time he runs in favourable circumstance.

GRANDOUET fell four out when close up and going well. Seeing that he'd been further off the unsustainably fast early pace than the second, third and fourth, I think it's a good bet that the would have reached the first three if he'd stood up. My best guess is he would have narrowly beaten Rock On Ruby for second.

Grandouet is not a very big horse and this surely explains why all his wins have been in single figure fields. He finds it hard to fight his way through crowds of bigger horses and has lost all five times he’s run in fields of ten or more. This may also explain why he's fallen or been brought down in three of this last seven starts. However if he hadn’t been brought down and fallen in two races he looked set to win he’d have won all eight times he ran ins single figure fields before this season.

Last season Grandouet was fancied for the Champion Hurdle but had to miss the race with an infected hock that took a long time to heal. He was actually off for twelve months before reappearing in the Grade 2 International Hurdle at Cheltenham, the race he’d won on his previous start.

In that race Grandouet, with a field of just seven, moved well in third behind the duelling Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar. He was understandably a bit keen on his first start in a year but looked to be going best turning in. However Zarkandar proved hard to pass. After looking like he might get past him for quite a while Grandouet had to give best in the closing stages and his jockey wasn’t hard on him in the last 100 yards. He ran second by two lengths.

Grandouet was due to run in the Kingwell Hurdle as a prep for this but missed the race due to a swollen near fore. That means he's only had two runs this season and is fresh enough to win any big race where he meets a single figure field. The most obvious target would be the Irish Champion hurdle at Punchestown.

Last year's Supreme Novices winner CINDERS AND ASHES had to be pulled up. He has apparently developed a breathing problem and was given a wind operation after his last start. This race was hardly run to suit a horse with a breathing issue as the pace never let up, the ground was on the slow side and the track very stiff. It's therefore understandable Cinders And Ashes had to be pulled up.

Cinders And Ashes has the size to jump fences. So it makes sense to switch him to the bigger jumps next year. The slower early pace of novice chasing will put less of a strain on his breathing. Meanwhile I wouldn't discount his chances of bouncing back over hurdles this season if he encounters fast ground. He's had hugely unfavourable conditions in all three starts this term.



CUE CARD DOES IT AGAIN

CUE CARD (44) confirmed just how good he is by running away with the Ryanair Chase in fast time. He made a couple of minor errors but had his rivals in trouble before the last and cleared away to score by nine lengths despite seeming to idle a little.

It seems unlikely that anything can stop Cue Card winning the Melling Chase at Aintree. After that the plan is to take him to Punchestown where presumably he'll be tackling the two mile Champion Chase rather than the 3m 1f Punchestown Gold Cup. That means there's a real chance we'll be seeing him face off against Sprinter Sacre once more.

Cue Card is the only horse that's made a race of it with Sprinter Sacre over fences so far. And he's now twice run a good deal faster than he did on that occasion. I reckon there's a real chance he can reverse placings with his old rival at Punchestown. This was the second time this season he's earned a simply enormous speed rating from me. I don't think he's getting the credit he deserves. That could all change after Punchestown.

Runner up FIRST LIEUTENANT (41) showed that he can be effective over less than three miles by finishing second. No doubt the strong pace and stiff track had something to do with that. His owner's firm Ryanair don't sponsor any races he's eligible for at the Punchestown Festival, so hopefully he'll have the chance to show what he can do over three miles there instead of being diverted to a shorter race his owner sponsors for a third time.

Third placed FOR NON STOP (40) moved well from a long way out but couldn't quite get to the first two.

The key to For Non Stop I think is contained in a statement his trainer made a while back when he said "each race takes a bit out of him so we’ll see how he takes this race.”

This does seem to be true. Like a lot of horses that have broken blood vessels For Non Stop appears to need a while to recover from a run. He has yet to win a race when his previous outing was less than 48 days before. His record off breaks of 48 days plus though is exceptional. If you toss out his hurdles debut (which most horses lose) he'd won all four times he's completed the course off a break of 48 days or more before this big run One of the two races where he fell was the Coral Cup when he was on his way to finishing second. The other was a novice chase where he looked set to win easily when tipping up.

For Non Stop is capable of winning a weak Grade 1 when fresh. And the way he kept on off a strong pace has me thinking that perhaps he might get three miles.

I'd be inclined to side against For Non Stop if he lines up for the Melling Chase at Aintree as it will come too soon if my read of his form is correct.

Fourth placed RIVERSIDE THEATRE (40) might be more of a threat to Cue Card at Aintree as he's probably better suited to flatter tracks. Here he got outpaced before staying on too late. The trouble is he's run below his best in five lifetime starts in late March or April and seems to have trouble holding his form at the end of the season.

CHAMPION COURT (39) is the horse that disputed the lead at an unsustainably fast pace with Junior in the King George. He once more went off at a strong pace to dispute the lead with the winner. And once more he paid for it by tiring rapidly on the run in.

I can understand the gung ho tactics with Champion Court. He doesn't have much acceleration so it makes sense to try and run the finish out of his rivals. He's consistent but hard to win with.





BACK IN FOCUS STAYS AMAZINGLY WELL

BACK IN FOCUS (38) looked to have little chance when six lengths down at the last in the National Hunt Chase. But he stayed on tremendously well as the leader both idled and tired up front to get up close home.

This performance shows that Back In Focus does not need soft or heavy ground to produce his best. As long as the distance is far enough and the pace strong enough he'll probably produce his best on any going.

No doubt Back In Focus is going to run a few clunkers in future when a race isn't enough of a stamina test for him. But he's a fascinating prospect for long distance chases from now on. I doubt that he'll have the pace to win a three mile Grade 1 chase once he leaves the novice ranks. However I can see how he could win the Hennessy at Newbury if the ground is soft enough. As with Lord Windermere, he'd be a very interesting runner in the Irish National.

Runner up TOFINO BAY (38) was left six lengths clear when the challenging Rival D'Estruval fell two out. He then idled badly as he tired on the run in which allowed Back In Focus to catch him. Proof that he was idling as much as tiring comes from the fact he got going again once the winner was upsides.

My suspicion is that if Rival D'Estruval hadn't fallen Tofino Bay might well have beaten him narrowly with Back In Focus a close up third.

Although he scored his only pattern win in a five runner race where he was allowed to set an absolute crawl I think Tofino Bay is best in races where the field is big enough to guarantee a searching pace. If this race had gone his way he would have won all five times he's run beyond two miles in fields of sixteen or more. He's already won one big handicap chase, the Troytown. His seeming preference for big fields suggests that other big handicap chases are his best option for the future.

RIVAL D'ESTRUVAL (38) was going well from a long way out and had every chance when he fell at the second last. He would surely have gone close had he stood up. His trainer says "He goes exceptionally well fresh".

It looks like Rival D'Estruval is best on his first two runs off a ten week break and with rests longer than 28 days thereafter. These are slightly shorter gaps between runs than most horses that prefer to be fresh. But if this race had been a win he would have won six of the last eight times he's been fresh in this way, with one of his losses being a second place finish to the smart Bold Sir Brian over an inadequate two and a half miles.





HOW LONG WILL SPRINTER SACRE BE AROUND?

It was hard not to be impressed with the way SPRINTER SACRE (43) cruised clear of the top class Sizing Europe in the Champion Chase. It was clear he could have run a good deal faster. Indeed he already has.

However I take issue with Simon Bazalgette, head of the Jockey Club, who proposed a Champions Series for jumps racing in the wake of Sprinter Sacre's win.

Bazalgette said "You've got to have the stars. They are what gets the most interest. We've been lucky to have some great ones like Kauto Star and Denman and horses like Frankel on the Flat. Sprinter Sacre could be the next one on that conveyor belt. We've all seen the horses who have been built up and haven't quite delivered. But he has. The great thing about jumps racing is that horses stay around for several years and he's still relatively young, so hopefully we'll get a good few years out of him."

The first thing Bazalgette has wrong is the likelihood of Sprinter Sacre winning big races for several more years. His trainer Nicky Henderson is brilliant at getting horses to bloom early in their careers. But it's rare for them to continue for long, especially if they're steeplechasers. You can point to Long Run as an exception but since 1996 only one of the other fifteen Grade 1 steeplechase winners that he's trained has gone on winning in Grade 1 company beyond four more runs at the top level. The exception was Tiutchev who achieved the feat for another trainer (Martin Pipe after a ten month break).

The main thing Bazalgette has wrong though is what the head of almost every other body involved in racing administration on the planet seems to be wrong about too. Namely why people are interested in horse racing.

The answer is betting. And not just any type of betting. What excites people about horse race betting is that it gives them the chance to use skill and knowledge to put the odds in their favour.

The Jockey Club, and the BHA and HRI come to that, seem to be in denial about this. They appear to want to distance themselves from betting and seem keen to promote other aspects of horse racing in an effort to woo the fans.

They should face up to the fact that it's the ability to win by betting on superior information and analysis that attracts fans into the sport. Then they would understand that the way to improve racing's finances is to provide the fans with better information than they now supply. Information such as sectional times, horse's body weights, accurate race distances, detailed explanations of poor runs from trainers, declaration of every item of equipment including nosebands, bandages, protective boots, shoe type and more.

So let's forget this nonsense about another 'Champions Series' and start thinking about what punters really want and need on a daily basis - more and better official information.

Having got that off my chest let me now turn to SIZING EUROPE (35) who finished second to Sprinter Sacre in the Champion Chase. For the second year running the track itself gave him a problem. Last year it was the dolled off final fence which prompted him to get bumped by the winner as he swerved around it. This year it was the path across the track before the second last that gave him trouble. For some reason it was slippery on the Wednesday, as Lord Windermere discovered in the earlier RSA Chase. Sizing Europe slipped a good deal more than that one and lost more ground and momentum as a result.

There's no doubt that Sizing Europe would still only have finished second. And my best guess is that the slip cost him no more than three lengths. So obviously Sizing Europe ran well below his best. The question is why.

The simplest explanation is the distance.

As I've noted before Sizing Europe has lost all three times he's run 2m 7f or more. He's also lost 12 of the 25 times he's run two miles or 2m 110 yards. But if he hadn't tipped up when going much the best in one race he would have won all eight times he's run at distances in between these two extremes.

However it has to be said that Sizing Europe has shown smart form over two miles and still seems capable of doing so if the ground is soft or heavy. It seems to me he's simply developed more stamina as he's got older.

This is not uncommon. Desert Orchid and Kauto Star. Both started off being brilliant over two miles but ended up winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The best run Sizing Europe has ever put up on my ratings was his runaway win in the Clonmel Oil Chase over two and a half miles on soft ground earlier this season. The way he was powering away at the finish of that race suggests to me was most impressive. It suggests he might well last three miles.

The most obvious target for Sizing Europe is the two and a half mile Melling Chase at Aintree. Perhaps it's a bit late in his career to have one more attempt at three miles. But if the ground came up fast it would certainly be very interesting to see him take his chance in the Punchestown Gold Cup.
 
The main thing Bazalgette has wrong though is what the head of almost every other body involved in racing administration on the planet seems to be wrong about too. Namely why people are interested in horse racing.

The answer is betting. And not just any type of betting. What excites people about horse race betting is that it gives them the chance to use skill and knowledge to put the odds in their favour.

The Jockey Club, and the BHA and HRI come to that, seem to be in denial about this. They appear to want to distance themselves from betting and seem keen to promote other aspects of horse racing in an effort to woo the fans.

They should face up to the fact that it's the ability to win by betting on superior information and analysis that attracts fans into the sport. Then they would understand that the way to improve racing's finances is to provide the fans with better information than they now supply. Information such as sectional times, horse's body weights, accurate race distances, detailed explanations of poor runs from trainers, declaration of every item of equipment including nosebands, bandages, protective boots, shoe type and more.

So let's forget this nonsense about another 'Champions Series' and start thinking about what punters really want and need on a daily basis - more and better official information.
Click to expand...

Amen to all that, Nick.
As succinct a summary as I've seen on what makes racing tick, and the sooner racing's authorities realise it's pnnters they need to look after, rather than bookmakers, the better.all round.
 
reet hard said:
Amen to all that, Nick.
As succinct a summary as I've seen on what makes racing tick, and the sooner racing's authorities realise it's pnnters they need to look after, rather than bookmakers, the better.all round.
Click to expand...

This is not quite right in my opinion. Totally agree that the sport needs to look after punters, and providing sectional timing and horse weights would be a great step forward (though I'm not sure whether a horse was wearing brushing boots would influence my bets).

However, there are plenty of people who love horse racing that have no interest in betting at all. I have a bet most days but I came to the sport through my love of horses. Given the choice between watching a race like the upcoming Melling chase (in which I won't be having a bet) and a 0-65 from Wolves when I've had £100 on, I choose the former. People do want to see the top horses and initiatives to encourage them to run more often are a good idea. However I think this has more to do with race planning and the dominance of the Cheltenham Festival than anything else - another 'order of merit' type exercise has little chance of working.
 
Can't disagree with much of that, Benny, though turnover on the Melling will probably be 100fold that of any 0-65 at Wolverhampton, which indicates punters themselves aren't only in it for the betting.
However, it's Nick's bald recognition of what attracts the large majority into the sport initially, and racing's failure to acknowledge, and encourage, its own core market that is the thrust of his article.
 
CLOSE TOUCH A GOOD CHASING PROSPECT

CLOSE TOUCH (38) showed remarkable stamina to run away with the Grade 3 Novices Handicap Hurdle over two and a half miles at Sandown on the eve of the Cheltenham Festival.

The early pace was strong and Close Touch was the only one able to sustain it. He was swinging off the bridle turning in and flew away from his rivals in the last three furlongs to score by a dozen lengths. It was remarkable that he could finish so full of running on heavy ground off such a strong gallop. Clearly he's going to stay a lot longer than two and a half miles.

Close Touch is a three mile plus chasing sort that shows knee action. He won a couple of minor races on officially good ground but his only loss so far in five starts came when he encountered ground that was rated 7.5 on the going stick. That's the highest reading for any of his races and should denote a fast surface. The winner was the smart African Gold but I suspect the quick ground contributed to his loss.

Next year Close Touch will be going chasing. The Feltham will be an obvious target as it's more likely he'll get his ground there than in the RSA Chase. Meanwhile if it comes up soft at Aintree or Punchestown he'd be an interesting candidate there.

ANNIE POWER LOOKS VERY HARD TO BEAT

ANNIE POWER (39) coasted through the first Grade 1 race for mares at Fairyhouse last Sunday as though it was an exercise gallop. Yet she clocked a time that would win most Grade 1 novice hurdles against males. She lobbed along at the back then pulled herself rapidly into the lead before the straight and cruised clear.

On her previous start Annie Power had to be ridden a bit harder and earned a rating of 41 from me. That's Champion Hurdle class. Quite how quick she'd go if she was really hard ridden is a fascinating question to ponder. I doubt that we'll receive an answer soon as her next start is due to be the big mares races at the Punchestown Festival. It'd be remarkable if she failed to extend her unbeaten record to eight there.

I hate to tempt fate but I have to say that to run as fast as she has without being extended suggests Annie Power could well be the best national hunt mare since Dawn Run. She has the same awesome combination of pace and stamina as that legendary mare plus the size to jump fences.



ROI DU MEE WINS YET AGAIN

ROI DU MEE (40) has been really well placed to win six of his last seven starts by trainer Gordon Elliot. He knows the horse is best in single figure fields on soft ground over fences and requires longer than two and a half miles. But finding so many suitable races in such a short space of time has been quite some feat.

Roi Du Mee continued his fine run to win the Grade 3 Imperial Call Chase at Cork. He tracked the leader most of the way in a strongly run race, went on five out and kept on well as the runner up tried to get at him from two out.

I can't say for sure that Roi Du Mee won't handle faster ground as so many of his efforts on quicker going have been over inadequate distances. But the odds are against it, so he's probably going to need unseasonably wet weather for his winning streak to continue. However if it does come up soft for the Punchestown Gold Cup and there's a single figure field I would not dismiss his chances lightly.

Runner up PANDORAMA (39) ran a most encouraging race, staying on strongly to close the gap up the straight after losing ground through three slow jumps earlier in the contest.

Pandorama was one of the very best national hunt horses of recent years on my ratings before he broke down, winning four times at the top level. He's so top heavy he surely needs cut in the ground but this run shows he's on his way back on only his second start following a lengthy break.

I have to say that it looked like Pandorama was wanting three and a half miles here seeing how well he was staying on. But it's too early to start making judgements like that. Most likely he's going to move forward again next time whatever the distance as long as he encounters yielding or softer going. I'd have to give him a serious chance in the Punchestown Gold Cup if he gets his ground.

Third placed TOON RIVER (37) ran his bests ever race to take third. The only obvious reason for his improvement is the addition of a tongue tie.



POSTED ON MARCH 26, 2013

SWEET LIGHTNING MAY BE BEST IN HUGE FIELDS

It's tempting to try and find a way to interpret the times of one or more of the lightly raced young horses at the Curragh last Sunday to say they're pattern class. But however I play with the numbers the only proper pattern class performance on the card was by SWEET LIGHTNING (37) who was so impressive when storming clear of his rivals in the Irish Lincoln handicap.

It takes a smart horse to win the Irish Lincoln. Last year's winner Sharestan is a Group 2 horse at least who may yet prove Group 1. However Sweet Lightning is eight years old. While his trainer says "he's improved tremendously over the winter" I think his past form is still likely to prove the best guide to his future prospects.

Sweet Lightning seems to do best off the very strong early pace that huge fields of handicappers tend to generate. His last three wins have all been in fields of eighteen or more. He ran a couple of good races last year in pattern company when third to Sharestan and second to Famous Name. But my bet is his next win will come in another big handicap with 18 runners or more. Whatever he does from now on he's already made history by winning the British and Irish Lincoln handicaps.



TREACLE HAS AMAZING STAMINA

It's awfully hard for jockeys to judge the pace of a race on heavy ground. They can go what seems a really slow pace and find it was a little too fast. This happened midway through the Daily Mirror Chase at Down Royal when the runners went 3.1 seconds faster from the eighth to the fourteenth fence than they did in the quarter mile shorter novice chase on the same card.

The impact of this mid race surge wasn't felt until the closing stages when NINETIETH MINUTE (32-pace adjusted 36), who had cruised up to lead two out, travelling better than his rivals, suddenly tired just after the earlier leader Leggy Lad had done the same thing.

This pretty much gifted the race to TREACLE (33-paced adjusted 37), a horse that has almost bottomless stamina. He was able to keep going better and ground out a four length win.

Treacle is a horse that's had a lot of physical problems in his career and seems best fresh as a result. He only had one run over an inadequate distance off a long break prior to this big run, so he's probably still going to be fresh enough to produce his best in the Grand National. He fell at the tenth in the race last year but once more merits serious consideration for the Aintree marathon.

Ninteieth Minute made a few jumping errors and has fallen in two of his last seven starts. It looks like he doesn't have the jumping ability or the stamina for the Grand National.



DEDIGOUT BACK TO BEST

DEDIGOUT bounced back to his best to win the Grade 3 Naas Directors Plate over two and a half miles. Always moving best, he had too much pace for the runner up You Must Know Me in the homestraight and scored by seven and a half lengths.

Dedigout apparently lost confidence in his jumping following an early mistake at Leopardstown two runs back but was given plenty of schooling and showed the benefit of that here.

Right now Dedigout is looking like a two and a half mile horse. After all he's won six from eight over trips around that distance and run second and third to smart horses in his two losses. He's lost both his tries over three miles and both over two as well. However he was so full of run at the finish here I'm cautious about betting he won't get three. As long as he gets the cut in the ground his trainer says he needs I'd be careful of opposing him over any trip.

Runner up YOU MUST KNOW ME (36) is certainly a future three miler. He's a deep chested, strong sort that's obviously built for that distance and more. He jumped really well for a novice (as Henry de Bromhead's novice chasers always seem to do) but lacked the pace to see off the winner over two and a half miles.

You Must Know Me won a point to point and a hurdle over three miles but went lame at Punchestown the only other time he tackled the distance he's clearly built for. He also ran a half length second to unlucky RSA chase loser Boston Bob over two and a half miles when he stepped up the pace from a long way out at Navan.

Having gone lame that one time I'd say cut in the ground is going to be a requirement for You Must Know Me as much as the winner. Give his obvious stamina and the good record of novices in the Irish Grand National I'm very interested to see he's entered in the big Fairyhouse race.





POSTED ON FEBRUARY 25, 2013

ANNIE POWER LOOKS A CHAMPION HURDLE PROSPECT

All four hurdle races at Naas last Sunday featured sprint finishes. The difference between the Grade 2 Paddypower.com Novice Hurdle and the other three is that the early pace was much stronger. As a result the time from the first jump to the finish was 7.87 seconds faster than in any of the other races.

Annie Power and Defy Logic must be exceptional to produce the burst of speed they showed from two out off a good early pace. My ratings suggest they are right up there with the very best novice hurdlers we've seen this season.

Up to the second last the race looked like just being a solid Grade 2. But when the first two started sprinting they left their rivals floundering in their wake., rapidly pulling eight and a half lengths clear of third placed Don Cossack who had moved well to that point but then got badly outpaced.

Tony McCoy on DEFY LOGIC (40) had ridden a canny race, setting a fair pace but saving enough to produce a tremendous surge from two out that would have routed most fields. Indeed he'd won his previous two starts by 34 and 35 lengths.

Defy Logic was rather keen and clearly wanted to go a bit faster early, so I'm going to excuse the fact he raced with his head rather high. I got the impression that perhaps he was disliking the hood he was wearing. But he suffered his only previous loss the sole time he wasn't equipped with headgear, so no doubt there's a reason for it.

Defy Logic is built and bred for longer than the two miles of this race and has already won over two and a quarter miles. Given his build and the fact he's by Flemensfirth it's tempting to suppose he won't be good enough to win a Grade 1 until he switches to fences. But he's awfully pacey and Flemensfirth has produced three Grade 1 winning hurdlers in Backspin, Muirhead and Pandorama. So I wouldn't discount his chances of winning the Neptune on that score.

In fact Defy Logic now ranks as joint fastest on my ratings of all the likely Neptune runners along with the favourite Pont Alexandre. But he's clearly got a better turn of foot than that one so I have to rate his chance very highly. I'm therefore surprised to see a couple of bookies still offering him at 25-1 for Cheltenham.

ANNIE POWER (41) is clearly an exceptional talent. She has won all six of her starts to date and looks awfully hard to beat. The fact she was able to go with a horse that produced such smart acceleration and then power away from him was most impressive.

It's been a while since a mare won the Champion Hurdle but I have to say that's the race I'd be thinking of long term for Annie Power after this run. For now I'd be wary of opposing her in novice company and would be very interested in her chances if she ran in the Champion Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival.

Third placed DON COSSACK (36) moved well until getting totally swamped for finishing speed by the first two from three out. Clearly he would do better over two and a half miles and better still over fences next season.





SEABASS RUNS A WHALE OF A NATIONAL TRIAL

The Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse is a very important Grand National Trial. Since it was first run ten horses have reached the first three in it while earning Racing Post ratings bigger than 150 (like this year's 123) and then gone on to run in the Grand National that same season. Four of the ten placed in the Grand National, as you can see from their record below:

2005....Hedgehunter...................WON

2008....Snowy Morning..............third

............Hedgehunter...................thirteenth

2009....Black Apalachi..............unseated (when leading 22nd)

............Snowy Morning.............ninth

2010....Black Apalachi..............second

............Vic Venturi....................unseated (when prominent 20th)

2011....Oscar Time......................second

............The Midnight Club.........sixth

...........Arbor Supreme...............fell

This year's Bobbyjo was a very strong contest in which the whole field were Grand National entrants. It was won by small field specialist ROI DU MEE (40) who showed once more that he can run fast enough to win a weak Grade 1 if the field is small enough. He's surely not big enough to cope with the huge field and giant fences at Aintree. But I'd be rather interested in his chances in the Betfred Bowl at the same meeting if six or less line up.

The runner up was PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (40) who is now favourite with several bookies for the Grand National. And I concede he ran a tremendous race.

However there are a couple of things about Prince De Beauchene that make him look a bad proposition for the Grand National - as I mentioned before he was forced to miss last year's race with a stress fracture of the hip.

Firstly there is the way that Prince De Beauchene races with his head rather low. This seems to ensure that when he lands a little steeply over a fence his jockey can't grab on to his neck to hang on as it's not within reach. This gives him much more chance of unseating his rider than other horses. Watch the video of the Bobbyjo Chase closely and you'll see this happened at the final fence where Prince De Beauchene was half on his knees landing over the jump and jockey Paul Townend got thrown forward slightly in the saddle.

This sort of thing is not of huge importance over normal fences. But over the giant fences on the Grand National course it's another matter.

The Grand National fences are taller than at other tracks and horses inevitably land more steeply - increasing the risk of them propelling their rider out of the saddle. It therefore makes sense that if a horse has unseated its rider at all recently it will be a poor risk to complete the course let alone win around Aintree. This has to be especially true for one with a low head carriage like Prince de Beauchene. To see what I mean download the video of the Bobbyjo and freeze it as he lands over the last and ask yourself what would happen to his jockey if he did that at Bechers.

Only one of the last twenty two Grand National winners (Bindaree) unseated their rider in one of their last seventeen starts before the big race. If the same proportion of National runners has unseated that recently over the last twenty two years as they have over the last fourteen then 267 have done so for that single success.

Prince De Beauchene unseated his rider nine runs back at Carlisle. He also unseated once in France (he was remounted to finish third).

The other concern is that Prince de Beauchene seems to get outpaced by the strong gallop that tends to build up around giant two mile plus ovals like Aintree. He's lost all three times he's run around tracks that big but prior to his smart Bobbyjo run he would have won eight of the last nine times he'd run beyond 12 furlongs on smaller tracks off breaks of ten weeks or less but for unseating that one time in France.

Third placed SEABASS (39) looks a better Grand National prospect to me. He's a giant beast of a horse that looks a very safe jumper. And of course he finished a close third in the Grand National last year.

In this race Seabass did really well to keep in touch with the leaders and stay on strongly as the pace quickened markedly from three out. (They came home from there three seconds faster than they did in the half mile shorter novice chase.) He's clearly been trained with nothing but the Grand National in mind and has to merit serious consideration at Aintree.

Fourth placed RARE BOB (39) is a horse that I despair of understanding. He's a Grade 1 winner that was good enough to win the valuable Leopardstown Chase under top weight. But that race is the only one he's won in his last twenty one starts.

Rare Bob has clearly been laid out for the Grand National too as his only previous outing this season was in a hurdle race. However it has to be a concern that he unseated his rider only eleven runs ago and got brought down in last year's Grand National. The plus is that he completed the course over the National fences to run fifth in the Becher Chase and seems to do best around giant two mile plus ovals like Aintree.

Fifth placed BOB LINGO (35) had failed to last home and run unplaced the four previous times he'd run longer than 2m 6f, so it was no big surprise to see him tiring in the closing stages once more. He is still in the Grand National but would surely do better over a shorter distance. He's actually won three of the last four times he's run in chases over less than three miles, including in the Dan Moore Memorial, Ireland's most valuable two mile handicap chase.

2010 Grand National runner up OSCAR TIME (33) finished last but still ran a decent race. He moved well and jumped well as they went Grand National pace early but couldn't cope with the much increased gallop from three out. He was allowed to come home in his own time once the principals got away from him.

The stats say it's a big worry that Oscar Time unseated on his previous start. And he's getting a bit old at twelve years of age. Nonetheless this was a promising trial for the big race.



DAYS HOTEL HARD TO BEAT IN MUD

Many observers seem to think that Realt Dubh would have won the Grade 2 Paddypower.com chase at Naas but for blundering at the last. But he would have had to go some to catch DAYS HOTEL (39) who was asked for a big one at the last, delivered it then landed running.

Days Hotel is a big horse that needs soft or heavy ground. He has now won all five times he has run on soft or heavy ground over two miles. I still cling to the hope that he can run further. This is largely based on the fact that he rallied after a bad mistake effectively put him out of the race over two and a half miles on his previous outing. In addition it's worth noting he ran two lengths second to Boston Bob in a point to point. But I concede point to points are rarely as much of a stamina test as rules races and Days Hotel has still to win in five tries beyond two miles.

As long as the ground stays favourable Days Hotel will be tough to beat as he's earned ratings as big as 42 from me in the past (another reason I feel he would have still won if Realt Dubh hadn't blundered).

It looked to me that REALT DUBH (37) was stretched into his last fence blunder by Days Hotel kicking on. I continue to think he'll do better if stepped up in distance.

Realt Dubh was stopped in his tracks by a mid air collision with First Lieutenant when going well in the JNWine.com Champion Chase yet still finished a decent fourth. He's won four of his other five completed chase starts over 2m 1f or more and run a fast second in a hot Grade 1 in the other. He won a weak two miler over fences at Punchestown as a novice but has lost the subsequent seven times he's tried the minimum distance over fences.





UPSIE LOOKS SMART

UPSIE (25) didn't have to run a fast time to win a maiden hurdle at Naas on her first try over timber. But her record and the way she won suggests she can run a good deal faster.

In France Upsie was unbeaten in two Bumper races and took one of the country's most valuable races of that type from a rival who went on to win the Prix de Craon, also called the Grand Prix de AQPS and the top Bumper race in France.

At Naas Upsie had to endure a good deal of buffeting from green rivals to hold her position down the inside. But she was always moving very strongly and powered through despite fluffing the last to quickly kick clear on the run in. She clearly had masses in hand and had little more than an exercise gallop here.

Upsie is a strong, close-couple mare that is another smart French import for trainer Willie Mullins. I'd be wary of opposing her in mares races.





UN DE SCEAUX A TOP CLASS PROSPECT.

Willie Mullins has clearly got some very good talent spotters in France. Every year he seems able to produce at least one Grade 1 prospect imported from what is now Europe's dominant racing nation.

This time around that prospect is surely UN DE SCEAUX (38) who set a strong pace and just kept on running to win a Punchestown maiden hurdle from a pattern class rival.

Un De Sceaux had won two mile and a half bumper races in France and this race was only two miles. However this sire's best progeny have been three mile chasers and there is loads of stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree too (she was slow but ended up over fences). So long term I'd say we're looking at a three mile chaser here. He certainly jumped really well and is clearly a smart prospect for novice chases next season. Though I imagine Willie Mullins will adhere to the current fashion of keeping top three mile chasing prospects to two and a half miles or less as novices.

Mullins said after the race "He’s been doing that sort of work at home. He jumped very well for a horse having his first run over hurdles and I think the time was huge considering the gallop they went. We’ll see how he comes out of it, he’s very hard on himself, but he looks like a very good addition to the novice hurdle ranks."

That latter comments looks highly significant as to date every run of Un De Sceaux has been preceded by a break of several months. From Mullins' comments it sounds like he's one of those horses that always runs fast and requires longer than most horses to recover from an outing.

Generally speaking horses that need to be kept fresh are okay on their first two runs of the season and then require breaks of at least five weeks thereafter. On De Sceaux has had two runs this season, so I'd like to see his next run five weeks or more hence.

Runner up SAMMY BLACK (36) is a proper three mile chasing sort. He chased the winner hard all the way and pulled 25 lengths clear of the other sixteen runners in his efforts to get by. To run this well over a distance that's surely on the short side for him was impressive. And to do so around the tight inner circuit at Punchestown makes his effort even more meritorious. (Incidentally sectional times show that the inner hurdles track at Punchestown is 10.6 furlongs in circumference - but it's tighter than most tracks that small due to it's multiple twists and turns).

Sammy Black put in some spectacular jumps during the race, often clearing the hurdles with a couple of feet to spare. This kind of jumping is obviously better suited to steeplechasing.

A maiden hurdle is surely a formality for Sammy Black. In fact I can readily see him taking a Grade 3 if stepped up to two and a half miles and switched to a more galloping track.





POSTED ON FEBRUARY 21, 2013

ON HIS OWN (37) must be one of the biggest, most powerful steeplechasers in training. So he looked rather out of place when running against mostly much smaller rivals in the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle at Navan. However that did not stop him winning.

Always prominent, On His Own had kicked on into the leader before turning in. His ears were pricked and he looked to be idling in the closing stages but he kept going to score clearly.

On His Own seems to dislike the steep gradients at Cheltenham, which is not surprising given how top heavy he is. But he's won six of his other seven completed starts elsewhere when you include his point to point win. He was still going well when falling at Bechers second time around in the Grand National last year so I'm not surprised he's now been promoted to favourite for this year's race. He looks to have a major chance.





SO YOUNG TOUGH TO BEAT IN SMALL FIELDS

I've mentioned before that SO YOUNG (38) is pretty much an unstoppable force in single figure fields below Grade 1 class. Following his win in the Red Mills Trial Hurdle at Gowran Park he has now won eight of the ten times he's run in races of this type. He was second to the top class Solwhit in his most recent small field loss and also second in his other loss over a mile and a half on the flat.

At Gowran Park So Young had way too much finishing speed for his stablemate Zaidpour and quickly went six lengths clear on the run in.

The two miles was almost certainly a bit too short for ZAIDPOUR (36) who was stretched into making a mistake on the far side before being done for a turn of foot by his stablemate in the closing stages.

It looks like Zaidpour doesn't quite get the three miles in a truly run contest. However at 2m 4f to 2m 6f he's won four out of five and finished a good second to dual Grande Course de Haies winner A Thousand Stars in his sole loss. Next time he goes the right distance he'll be tough to beat.
 
ALTERITE A GROUP 1 FILLY

ALTERITE (33-pace adjusted 37) won the Listed Prix Camargo at Saint-Cloud in good style. Held up, she swept down the outside of the field with a big run up the straight, went into the lead and had enough in hand to be eased in the last fifty yards. Her jockey never went for the whip and it looks likely she can run a bit faster.

Alterite has now won three of the five times she's run beyond six furlongs. In both her losses, including the Group 1 Marcel Boussac, she finished strongly to lose by less than a length.

The question now is whether Alterite has the pace for the Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas) if it ends up being run on faster ground than the heavy surface she encountered at Saint-Cloud. Right now I'd have to say yes because Alterite gained so much ground here despite the final three furlongs being run 1.2 seconds faster than in the colt's Listed race on the same card.

Long term though Alterite will surely do best over longer distances. Her sire won the Prix du Jockey Club and everything on her dam's side were middle distance performers or stayers.

Alterite is not that big but she's clearly got a good turn of foot and a lot of ability. If she doesn't get going in time in the Pouliches she's still got a very good shot at classic glory in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks).

Runner up Beatrice is a bigger, more muscular filly that looks built to be a specialist miler. She's now placed three times in pattern company but is probably not going to be good enough to win a Group 1. She's in the German 1000 Guineas and that looks a better target for her than the French race.

Third placed ANAZONE (35) pulled hard early. She made her run at the same time as the winner but didn't make as much progress as she initially looked likely to. She's a good moving sort that has shown smart form on the Polytrack at Cagnes-Sur-Mer and almost certainly needs a faster surface to produce her best on turf. She's a good sized filly that is built and bred to stay ten furlongs but has run as fast as the winner over a mile on my ratings. It will be interesting to see what she can do when she gets the chance to run on quicker ground.



POSTED ON MARCH 26, 2013

KAPOUR A CLASSIC PROSPECT

KAPOUR (29-pace adjusted 38) showed a smart turn of foot to win the Listed Prix Maurice Caillault over ten furlongs at Saint-Cloud.

Settled in a disputed third place early, Kapour was switched to the rail for a run as the sprint began up the straight. His jockey only pushed him out hands and heels to go half a length up and then eased off in the final strides to score by a neck. Clearly he can go a bit faster.

Kapour is entered in the Prix du Jockey Club and Grand Prix de Paris as you'd expect. He's also in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas). That entry was due no doubt a nod to his sire, who won the seven furlong Prix de la Foret. But Kapour clearly takes more after his dam and her three best siblings who were all best over 9-12 furlongs. He's a medium sized sort that looks built for ten furlongs, perhaps a bit more. So the Prix du Jockey Club is probably a better target than the longer Grand Prix de Paris

This win means Kapour is now unbeaten in three starts. The plan now is to shoot for one of the main trials for the Prix du Jockey Club. Whichever one is chosen he should go really well.

Runner up PARK REEL (29-pace adjusted 38) is a similar sort though a bit bigger. He's by a sprinter out of a sprinter miler but is built more like a middle distance performer. He was the first to kick on entering the straight but was hanging and running a little green with his ears going all over the place. His jockey applied the whip in an effort to get him to focus and he kept on well enough but was soon passed by the winner.

Park Reel won the only time he had the chance to run beyond a mile before this and followed up by running a neck second to Onedargent in a Listed race. Onedargent had been beaten a dozen lengths into second by subsequent Group 1 winner Morandi in the Group 3 Prix de Conde. So I'm thinking I may have under rated Morandi and others may be right for raving about him after his runaway win in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud.

We may soon get the chance to compare Park Reel and Morandi as the pair are among thirteen entrants for the Group 3 Prix La Force at Longchamp on April the seventh.



POSTED ON FEBRUARY 15, 2013

HOLY WARRIOR MAKES ALL FOR GAY KELLEWAY

The poor financial state of British racing has forced UK trainers to run their horses abroad a good deal more to maintain their incomes. Five years ago they only earned 11% of their prize money from foreign races. By 2011 (the last year I have figures for) this increased to 24%.

HOLY WARRIOR (23 -pace adjusted 34) added to the foreign bounty when taking the Listed Prix Policeman over ten furlongs at Cagnes-Sur-Mer for Gay Kelleway.

This attractive, mature good-bodied colt was allowed to dictate the running at a moderate pace before sprinting for home up the straight. His rivals tried to get to him but he kept on extending his advantage all the way up to the last fifty yards or so to score by a length and a half.

The Prix Policeman is the top race for 3yo's at Cagnes-Sur-Mer's big Winter meeting. It was won by subsequent Prix du Jockey Club winner Saonois last year. Holy Warrior may not be that good, but he's unbeaten in two starts and is clearly useful.

Given his fast ground action and the fact that so far he's only run on Polytrack I suspect Holy Warrior will prove best on good or faster ground when he switches to turf. He'd be an interesting candidate for the Sandown Classic Trial if he got his ground. For now he's going to stick to a synthetic surface and tackle the UAE Derby. He looks an interesting candidate for that race.



POSTED ON FEBRUARY 11, 2013

ANAZONE SHOULD HAVE WON

Everyone knows that it's not a great idea to make the running at a strong pace on Polytrack. But the way that COURCY (7-pace adjusted 24) was allowed to roll six lengths clear off an absolute crawl of a gallop in the Listed Prix de la Californie at Cagnes-Sur-Mer was darned silly. The riders on the other horses let him slip away as he ambled through the first six furlongs in a pedestrian 1m 20.1 seconds which enabled him to fly through the last two furlongs in 11.1 then 10.5 seconds.

It's pretty much impossible to catch a clear leader that is sprinting so fast. But ANAZONE ((7-pace adjusted 24) very nearly did it. She was three lengths behind with two furlongs to run, a length and a half down at the furlong pole and only lost the race in a head bob on the line. I clocked her as running the final furlong in 10.25 seconds.

Anazone had won both her previous starts, one on turf, the other on Polytrack. And she'd earned a big speed rating of 37 from me for her previous success. That's Group class for a three year old filly this early in the season.

Anazone's dam is the smart Ozone Bere, a smart multiple Listed winner in France that went on to take a Grade 3 in America. She stayed ten furlongs and her previous winning foal stayed a mile and a half. Amazone herself looks like she'd have no trouble going a mile and a quarter on looks. She's a close coupled, well proportioned, medium-sized sort that looks built for that sort of distance. I can readily see her developing into a contender for the Prix Saint-Alary or Prix de Diane



POSTED ON NOVEMBER 12, 2012

PENNY'S PICNIC THE TOP FRENCH 2YO

Earlier this season PENNY'S PICNIC (38) clocked an astonishingly fast time when winning a minor conditions race by a dozen lengths. He did it again when winning the Group 2 Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte.

Approaching the final furlong Irish raider Viztoria was ahead and making the best of her way home with Penny's Picnic last of the nine runners. But when Penny's Picnic was switched to the stands rail his jockey merely had to shake the whip at him to close the gap rapidly and easily to blow by everything and win by a length.

The time that Penny's Picnic clocked was a fifth of a second faster than the next quickest race on the card, the Group 3 Prix de Seine-et-Oise for older horses over the same trip of 1200 metres (six furlongs). So it's right up there with the eye-catching performance of Dawn Approach who clocked the same time as the Group 2 Challenge Stakes for older horses when winning the Dewhurst over the same course and distance.

I've mentioned before that Penny's Picnic is bred to get least seven furlongs. He is by a smart seven furlong performer and the first foal of an unraced dam that's a full sister to dual one mile Group winner Penny's Gold. This run makes me strongly inclined to believe he will get the mile in the Poulains (French 2000 Guineas). Indeed his trainer says that his defeats by Reckless Abandon in the Papin and Morny were caused by him being taken off his feet by the pace set by that seriously fast sprinter on fast ground. I also have to say that, seeing how well he performed from off the pace at Maisons-Laffitte, if they'd switched to hold up tactics in the Pain and Morny he would have done far better. No doubt he'll be ridden this way from now on.

It is easy to argue that Penny's Picnic needs cut in the ground as he's won all five times he's run on good to soft or slower ground and suffered those two losses on a faster surface. However he shows no knee action and has actually twice won on ground only slightly slower than good. In addition the three wins scored by his sire and the three pattern wins by Penny's Gold were all on a fast surface. It now seems pretty clear that he's done better on a slower surface to date simply because it's made the short distances he's tackled to date more of a stamina test.

There's no question in my mind that Penny's Picnic deserves to be rated the top French two year old on this run. His trainer says he will be entered in " all the Classics" next year. This suggests he has hopes of him staying the ten and a half furlongs of the Prix du Jockey Club. His next start will be in the Prix Djebel over seven furlongs in April. If there were ante-post betting on the French 2000 Guineas right now he'd carry my money.

The horses that followed Penny's Picnic home appear to all be sprinters, so their Classic prospects don't look great. However runner up VIZTORIA (37) ran so fast and is so stoutly bred I have to concede that my belief her short-necked, close-coupled physique makes her unlikely to stay a mile could be wrong. This is the second time she's earned a Group 1 class rating from me and her trainer Edward Lynam is still aiming her at the Irish 1000 Guineas in May.



MORANDI NEEDS TO SHOW MORE

One of the biggest changes in French racing over the last two decades has been the way the top horses are now held back from racing at two years of age.

In the early nineties and earlier there were plenty of brilliant French horses that showed sensational form as juveniles. Nowadays though it is invariably only Guineas prospects that are occasionally given a serious campaign at two. The Prix du Jockey Club and Grand Prix de Paris candidates generally only have one run very late in the season if they run as two year olds at all.

For this reason I would urge caution in regards to the runaway win scored by MORANDI in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud over ten furlongs last week. I concede this strong stocky colt sat close to a strong pace and then powered away from his rivals up the straight. However he only clocked a Group 3 class time. And the subsequent record of recent French-trained winners of this race is not encouraging.

From 1994 to last year there were ten French-trained winners of the Criterium de Saint-Cloud. The only win they scored in 27 later Group 1 races was the short head success of Voix du Nord in the Prix Lupin - a rather weak Group 1 that has since been discontinued.

I concede Morandi may be able to run faster than he did at Saint-Cloud. But I'll be inclined to oppose him when he faces rivals that have been brought along more slowly next year.
 
FORT KNOX IS USEFUL

The Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial was a rather unusually run race this year.

Thanks to an initially misleading official going report and the only previous race on the card being a slow run sprint the jockeys didn't realise the ground was heavy. As a result they went a little too fast a pace for the distance. It wasn't a fast enough pace to hurt the final time. But the eventual winner FORT KNOX (38) surely enjoyed a huge advantage by being dropped out last and trailing the next to last horse by three lengths to halfway. This enabled him to sweep through with a big run up the straight and storm through to win going away by nearly two lengths.

The result could end up being a fluke caused by the pace. Right now though I don't read it that way. I rate the winner as good as most winners of the race and good enough to reach the first four in an average 2000 Guineas.

Both the wins scored by Fort Knox have been on very soft ground. Most likely he prefers a bit of cut in the ground, just like his brother Dubawi Gold. I dare say he will do well on the gentler cushion of synthetic surfaces too, again just like his brother. So I wouldn't be too disappointed if Fort Knox runs below this form on the likely firmer ground he'll encounter during the Summer. When he gets the chance to run on a slower surface again in the Autumn I'd bet on him bouncing back to form. And longer term, next year he'll be interesting for Tapeta races at the Dubai Carnival.

Runner up DONT BOTHER ME (36) is the horse that set the over-fast gallop. He kicked on in the straight and was three lengths clear with just a furlong left to run. But his exertions then told and he got caught.

This is the second time in a row Dont Bother Me has earned a Listed class speed rating from me. So you could argue that is as good as he is. But this year he's been second to Gale Force Ten, who is almost certainly a Group 1 performer, and now he's produced this big run in unfavourable circumstances. My suspicion is that this good-bodied, mature, muscular colt is capable of better.

Seeing how long he kept going here at an unsustainable pace I can understand why Dont Bother Me has been entered for the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial over ten furlongs. My read of his pedigree and physique suggest he's most likely a miler but it's not something I'm confident about. Whatever distance he runs next time I'll be interested in his chances, especially on faster ground.

Sixth placed THE UNITED STATES (31) moved well for a long way but was under pressure with two furlongs to run. His jockey Joseph O'Brien allowed him to coast him in his own time from 200 yards out but for which he might well have finished three or four lengths closer, though I don't think he'd have improved his finishing position. My bet is O'Brien sensed his mount blow up through lack of fitness and that's why he was easy on him. Given his trainer's record with seasonal debutantes and the fact this is such a big bodied colt that looks the best explanation. So I wouldn't want to judge The United States on this run. He looked a potential Group winner on my ratings last year.



DECLARATION OF WAR SHOWS THAT FINISHING KICK AGAIN

Last year DECLARATION OF WAR (24-pace adjusted 37) ran the final three furlongs in just 33.6 seconds when winning the Group 3 Diamond Stakes on Dundalk's Polytrack, having run the earlier part of the race at a rate of 12.8 seconds per furlong. He showed the same amazing acceleration on his seasonal debut at Leopardstown when winning the Listed Heritage Stakes at Leopardstown. After ambling through the first six furlongs at a rate of 14.4 seconds a furlong in the heavy ground he quickened sharply to run the final quarter mile in only 24.8 seconds.

Declaration Of War was always moving smoothly and won the race with a good deal in hand. He's earned ratings as high as 39 from me in the past when also winning easily, so I think it's a fair bet that he's a Group 1 horse.

We may get the opportunity to see just how good Declaration Of War is on his next start in the Lockinge Stakes.

My concern about that race is it is over only a mile. I concede Declaration Of War's win last week was over that distance. But I've long believed that a horse will perform best at the outermost limits of its stamina. In this regard it may be significant that Declaration Of War's best performance to date came over ten furlongs. The only loss he has ever suffered came the one time he ran on good ground in pattern company over less than ten furlongs. This was on his Irish debut where he only managed to run fourth. No doubt he needed the run and he did only finish four lengths behind the top class Famous Name that day. But it does raise a concern about his chances in a Group 1 over a mile.

The counter arguement is that Declaration Of War is such as big, muscular horse he may well be best suited to shorter distances. In addition the acceleration he has shown suggests real speed.

There is another arguement that says Declaration Of War's big, muscular physique stems from the fact he's built and bred for dirt. He's unbeaten in three starts on Polytrack and Fibresand and it could be he's going to need dirt or an AW surface to show his very best form.

The Lockinge should tell us a lot more about Declaration Of War. I have to say that if he were mine I'd be running him in the Tattersalls Gold Cup instead and aiming to keep him fresh for an assault on the Breeders Cup Classic in November. A smart way to go after his next start might be to lay him off till September and then bring him back in Europe's top Polytrack race the Anatolia Trophy at Veliefendi in Turkey followed by a big US dirt race and then the Breeders' Cup Classic.



DOES RAWAAQ NEED TO BE FRESH?

I don't know of a stronger link between any two races than the C L Weld Park Stakes and last week's Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial

If Heart Shaped and Wild Wind had won instead of finishing second the last nine runnings of the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial would have gone to a horse that reached the first four in the Weld Park Stakes. This year RAWAAQ (37) was the only runner to have contested the Weld Park Stakes (she finished second) and she duly won at 6-1.

Always fairly close up, Rawaaq worked her way into a challenging position a furlong out, but it was only in the last 100 yards that she really asserted. After that she was pulling right away and looked in need of another furlong, if not more.

Rawaaq is a light-framed, smallish filly, so there has to be a concern that she doesn't carry enough condition on her to take several races in a row. It may therefore be significant that her two wins have been on her seasonal debuts and her big run in the Weld Park off a ten week break. She's run a bit below her best the two times she's been returned to the races more quickly.



BATTLE OF MARENGO PROBABLY NOT QUITE UP TO DERBY CLASS

BATTLE OF MARENGO (38) clocked a solid Group class time to win the Ballysax stakes in good style. He had a brief tussle with the runner up before being ridden out to score by nearly two lengths and I concede he won nicely. However I have some doubts about him being a genuine Derby contender.

The first doubt I have about Battle Of Marengo is his physique. He stands over quite a bit of ground but isn't as strong and muscular as most of Aidan O'Brien's top colts have been over the years.

Then there is a worry about stamina. His full sister did not appear to stay the Derby distance and improved when cut back to a mile.

Finally there is the margin of his success.

All four of the last 25 Ballysax Stakes winners that scored by three and a half lengths or more went on to win in Group 1 company. Only two of the other twenty one did so.

I know O'Brien says that Battle Of Marengo is one of those horses than only does enough to win. But I still don't see him as a top Derby candidate at this stage. My feeling is he'll prove to be a Group 3 horse that's best over ten furlongs.

Runner up SUGAR BOY (37) looks more of a mile and a half horse to me. He's a stronger horse than the winner and actually looked a serious threat to him turning in. I liked the way he pulled clear of the rest to duel with the winner. He's probably not going to be up to Derby class but trainer Patrick Prendergast describes him as a relentless galloper, so I'd be looking for improvement from him when he gets the chance to run longer than ten furlongs.





GALE FORCE TEN UP TO GUINEAS CLASS

GALE FORCE TEN (31-pace adjusted 38) showed serious acceleration when winning the Listed Elusive Pimpernel Patton Stakes over seven furlongs at Dundalk. He made all the running then quickened up smartly to cover the last two furlongs in just 21.86 seconds.

In the closing stages Gale Force Ten was moving smoothly, so this race will not have taken much out of him and I can readily see him improving. And he's already fast enough to rate as Guineas class on my speed ratings.

The idea of shooting for the French 2000 Guineas by way of the Prix Fontainebleau mooted by connections sounds a smart plan. Gale Force Ten clearly has the turn of foot needed to win big French races.

Trainer Aidan O'Brien says that Gale Force Ten is best on fast ground. This is not surprising. Horses with acceleration like his normally are.





PARISH HALL IMPRESSES

PARISH HALL (38) quickened up nicely to win the Alleged Stakes at the Curragh off a long lay-off despite running a bit green.

He wandered around as he quickened clear but this is excusable as it was only his sixth lifetime start and his first since winning the Dewhurst way back in 2011.

It's hard to say just how much faster Parish Hall could have run if fully fit and ridden right out. But I think it's a fair assumption that he still retains the ability that enabled him to win the Dewhurst. Here he simply equalled the speed rating I awarded him for that success. Normal improvement from two would see him run about four lengths a mile faster which is enough to give him a real shot of winning another Group 1.

Trainer Jim Bolger said before last season that he saw Parish Hall as more of a Derby than a Guineas horse. And he was once more talking about stepping Parish Hall up to a mile and a half after this win. That looks a logical move given the way he was finishing off a decent gallop.

Bolger says Parish Hall needs fast ground and that seems right. He's won three of the four times he's run on good or faster ground and finished second in the Futurity Stakes in his sole loss.

I liked the way fourth placed ERNEST HEMMINGWAY (36) was rallying in the last furlong despite not being given a hard race. He still looks a good prospect for the best ten furlong races to me, especially when the ground gets faster. His two big runs have been on the Polytrack at Dundalk, a surface that essentially rides like good to firm turf.





WE'LL GO WALKING IS PATTERN CLASS

You won't often see a horse win after running as green as WE'LL GO WALKING (33-pace adjusted 36) did when winning on her racecourse debut at Gowran Park. She spent most of the early part of the race pulling like a trainer and the latter part wandering around like a drunkard.

In the circumstances it was impressive how well We'll Go Walking was able to pick up to score by four lengths. Clearly she's capable of running a fair bit faster. And I already rate her quick enough to win an Oaks Trial.

Trainer Jim Bolger says We'll Go Walking doesn't carry much condition. I'd therefore want to be seeing gaps of at least five weeks between her outings once she's had one more run. She's entered up in the Irish Oaks and that looks a logical target.

I liked the way We'll Go Walking started to get organised and cleared away from her rivals in the final furlong. She seemed to be finally getting the hang of things towards the finish and won full of running.

Runner up RALSTON ROAD (31-pace adjusted 34) is a good-bodied deep chested sort that clearly appreciated the step up to a mile and a half. He ran around in the closing stages too but still managed to power nine lengths clear of the rest. A maiden should be a formality for him.

TOPAZE BLANCHE LOOKS A SMART PROSPECT

The first three furlongs of the Prix de la Grotte were run at a crawl, and it wasn't till the final three furlongs that the field were going proper racing pace.

This suited the winner KENHOPE (4-pace adjusted 37), a filly that has previously shown herself to possess a very good turn of foot, which she used here.

Kenhope has now won all three times she's run against her own sex beyond six furlongs and also finished second to the useful colt U S Law in a Group 3. However I prefer third placed TOPAZE BLANCHE (3-pace adjusted 36) as a long term prospect.

Topaze Blanche is a rather big-bodied, strong, rangy filly with a long stride. She looks built for longer than a mile. Indeed her dam won over twelve and a half furlongs. She did well to pick up strongly down the outside in the closing stages and very nearly got up for second.

Trainer Carlos Laffon Parias said after the race that the French 1000 Guineas was the target for Topaze Blanche and that she would improve for this run. However he must surely have an eye on the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) for which she is also entered.

If she hadn't run into traffic when a head second in the Group 1 Marcel Boussac, Topaze Blanche would have won all three times she ran seven furlongs or more before this loss. If she can manage to win the French Guineas I can readily see her doubling up in the Prix de Diane. She is rather reminiscent of the mighty Zarkava who was by the same sire and looks likely to stay a mile and a half.



MORANDI STILL NEEDS TO SHOW MORE

GENGIS (37) picked up strongly to catch front running U S Law late in the Prix de Fontainebleau, usually the top trial for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains.

This good looking grey colt now won four of his six starts and is clearly useful. But I can't find any obvious reason for his two losses. Possibly it has something to do with what his trainer said about him being green last year. In any event this was just an average Group 3 class performance so I'd be looking for something to beat him in the big race at this stage.

Runner up MORANDI (37) rallied well late to take second. He was odds on, having been officially rated the champion two year old in France last year. But I have to add I only awarded him Group 3 class speed ratings so wasn't too surprised at his loss here.

As I noted last year French two year olds are a much weaker group than they used to be. The best French horses either don't race at all at two these days or have just the one run late in the year in a maiden.

When a French-trained two year old wins the final 2yo Group 1 of the year, the Criterium de Saint-Cloud it usually means it was a weak contest.

Since 1994 there been eleven French-trained winners of the Criterium de Saint-Cloud. The only win they scored in 28 later Group 1 races was the short head success of Voix du Nord in the Prix Lupin - a rather weak Group 1 that has since been discontinued.

Perhaps Morandi can prove me wrong. Certainly some lines of form suggest he's very smart. But until he starts running faster I'm going to side against him,

US LAW (37) very nearly led all the way. He is a horse that's particularly well suited by being allowed to dominate a small field from the front. His trainer says he only ever relaxes when he's able to establish an early lead.

On the two occasions US Law has faced fields bigger than six he has lost after failing to get to the front early. Here there were just six runners, as there were when he ran third in the Group 1 Criterium International.

US Law is clearly useful, and his apparent need for a small field makes him an attractive betting proposition for future races with fields of six or less.





STYLE VENDOME A SERIOUS GUINEAS PROSPECT

STYLE VENDOME (40) was most impressive when winning the Prix Djebel. He quickened away from a very good field off a strong gallop in the manner of a high class horse. The time he clocked rates as solid Group 1 class for a three year old this early in the year. In fact I rate it one of the fastest Guineas Trials we've seen in recent years.

Style Vendome has looked smart right from the start as he ran second in the Prix Yacowlef on his debut. The Prix Yacowlef is the only pattern race on the planet for unraced horses and invariably attracts an exceptional field.

Nicholas Clement's charge has gone on to win all his subsequent four races.

The question now is whether Style Vendome will go for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) or head to Newmarket.

The stats suggest that Newmarket is a better option.

Only one of the last fourteen Prix Djebel winners to run in the Poulains has scored. But check out the record of the last fourteen Prix Djebel winners to run in the 2000 Guineas:

1970........Roi Soleil....................third

1972........Big Bead.....................fourth

1974........Northern Taste............fourth

1976........Vitiges........................second

1980........Nureyev......................WON (disqualified)

1982........Zino...........................WON

1990........Machiavellian............second

1991........Ganges.......................third

1992.......Cardoun......................twelfth

1995.......Pennekamp.................WON

2004.......Whipper.....................fifth

2007........US Ranger.................seventh

2010........Makfi.........................WON

2012........French Fifteen............second

The reason Djebel winners do so much better at Newmarket than Longchamp is almost certainly because the Djebel is run on a straight course, just like the 2000 Guineas.

Style Vendome's trainer Nicholas Clement very nearly pulled off the Djebel/Guineas double with French Fifteen last year. So my bet is he'll be sending Style Vendome to Newmarket.

Three years out of four Style Vendome's rating would be the fastest I'd award to a Guineas candidate before the big race. So I just can't understand the bookies offering 25-1 about his chances. I guess they're factoring in the chance of him staying at home. In my book if we could be certain he was running 4-1 would be a better reflection of his chances.

who only finished ninth.

Runner up SNOWDAY (38) is a good-bodied, muscular, mature sort who set a good pace. Coming up to the furlong marker it looked like he was going to be swallowed up by the field as the late runners started to get rolling. But he rallied well to hold second place.

As a two year old Snowday got outpaced in the Papin over five and a half furlongs and then got into traffic problems in the Morny. He's built and bred for a mile and clearly benefited from the longer distance here. He'd have won an average renewal of the Djebel and should be competitive in Group 1 company.

Third placed PENNY'S PICNIC (37) was the best two year old in France last year according to my speed ratings. He flopped in the Papin and the Morny when chasing the lead. His connections discovered afterwards that he was far better suited to being dropped out and brought with a late run.

Here Penny's Picnic just lobbed along in last place. When he was asked for his effort down the outside he initially surged forward but his run flattened out in the final furlong and he was not given a hard time from there.

It could be that Penny's Picnic simply failed to stay the seven furlongs. More likely he needed the run. My gut feel is that over a mile he's going to prove best around a turn. Up the straight his rivals may well be able to run the finish out of him. For this reason I'd like to see him head for the Poulains rather than the Guineas.

Fourth placed ETALONDES (37) was held up at the back with Penny's Picnic. He started his run a bit earlier and kicked two lengths clear of him to challenge just after two furlongs out. Penny's Picnic then surged a length clear of him before Etalondes started pulling back his advantage towards the finish.

Although he's won twice over six furlongs and once over seven and a half Etalondes has the build of a middle distance runner. This is not surprising as his dam won over ten furlongs and is a sister to the Ebor winner Tuning. The way Etalondes got chopped for speed after moving forward then rallied late here also suggests he wants a good deal longer than seven furlongs.



OPPOSITE IS GROUP CLASS

The lightly raced four year old OPPOSITE (39) clocked a very good time when making all the running to win a ten furlong conditions race at Longchamp. He's a good-bodied, rangy, long striding sort with a physique that suggests a lack of acceleration. So his jockey Olivier Peslier probably made a smart move by kicking him into the lad from the start and setting a searching pace.

Opposite reached the halfway mark 4.1 seconds faster than they did in the Group 2 Prix d'Harcourt over the same course and distance. And initially he looked a bit vulnerable turning into the homestraight. But instead of his rivals catching him he kicked further clear. He was four lengths up inside the last furlong and won easing up by three.

This is a solid Group 2 horse on my ratings who might just be good enough for some of the top races. His only defeat in three tries since his losing racecourse debut came byb a short head in a Polytrack race.

I'll be interested to see where Opposite goes from here. I can readily see him staying a mile and a half and winning very good races.





MAXIOS HAS A REAL SHOT IN GANAY

MAXIOS (31-pace adjusted 40) may well stop being called Bago's half brother if his win in the Prix d'Harcourt is anything to go by. The finishing burst he produced suggests he could well be about to win a Group 1 of his own.

Maxios just lobbed along in third place behind Don Bosco, a smart front runner who was allowed to go 4.1 seconds slower to halfway than Opposite went in the earlier conditions race over the same course and distance.

Picking up the leader proved no problem for Maxios. He accelerated in dramatic fashion to cover the last three furlongs in just 33.61 seconds. He ended up blowing by Don Bosco to score going away by three quarters of a length.

I have to agree with jockey Stephane Pasquier who described Maxios as a Group 1 horse after this win. Indeed I gave him a borderline Group 1 rating of 41 for his win at Maisons-Laffitte in September.

Trainer Jonathan Pease says Maxios is best fresh. This seems righ. So far he's won six of the eight times he's run ten furlongs or less on one of his first two starts of the season or with a five week plus break thereafter.

To date all of the wins scored by Maxios have been in fields of seven or less. It could be he needs a clear run to deliver his ultra-sharp finishing burst. But so far he's had just the one run in a field bigger than seven when fresh, so I'll withold judgement on that for now.

Runner up DON BOSCO (39) is an admirable front runner who has run one big race after another in the last eight months. He always rallies gamely when the closers get to him and is tough to pass.
 
AL KAZEEM AS GOOD AS EVER

AL KAZEEM (40) earned yet another good Group 2 class speed rating from me when returning from injury to win the Group 3 Gordon Richards Stakes following a one year absence.

With two furlongs to run Al Kazeem was still cruising and soon powered forward to lead then hold off the runner up a shade comfortably.

On several occasions, including here and last time out, Al Kazeem has run as if he could perhaps go the extra bit quicker needed to make him a Group 1 horse if he'd faced stronger opposition. We'll soon get the chance to find out as he's set to tackle the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup next time.

Seeing that he's such a top heavy sort and has already suffered a stress fracture of the pelvis I'd be a little wary of supporting Al Kazeem on ground where the word 'firm' appears in the official description from now on.

Runner up THOMAS CHIPPENDALE (39) was also moving really well early in the straight and made a strong bid in the final furlong to go under by only a length.

It's interesting to note that Thomas Chippendale has run fifth or worse all four times he's run on dead flat tracks but would have won four out of four on tracks with gradients but for coming up against a smart rival here. It could be he needs the gradients to break up the gallop as he is such a keen going sort that tends to pull hard.

Third placed EKTIHAAM (39) was running second and looked set to hold that position until the winner edged in and forced him to be taken up quite sharply as they approached the line. Actually he seems to hoover up all the trouble that's going in a race as this was the third time in a row he's encountered traffic problems.

Ektihaam is a big-bodied, rather top heavy horse that may well be best on a dead flat track like the runner up. He's won three times out of four on dead flat courses and finished a close second in the Dante in his only loss.



SUGAR BOY SHOWS HIS STAMINA

SUGAR BOY (33-pace adjusted 37) is built for a mile and a half plus and showed once more how well he stays when rallying to re-take the lead when winning the Sandown Park Classic Trial over ten furlongs.

Sectional times suggest jockey Chris Hayes was probably right to suggest he should have kicked earlier on Sugar Boy. Most likely he would not have been headed at any stage had he done so. As it is he saved enough energy by setting a slightly slow early gallop run the last three furlongs 1.5 seconds faster than they did in the Esher Cup over a mile and only 0.3 seconds slower than in the Group 2 Sandown Mile.

Now that Sugar Boy has earned a Listed to Group 3 class rating for the second time in two starts this term it's tempting to conclude that's as good as he is. However I still see scope for improvement over a mile and a half and was interested to hear his trainer talking about the St Leger.

Runner up EYE OF THE STORM (33-pace adjusted 37) looked set to win well when going past the winner two furlongs out but just got done when his rival staged a big rally from there. He's only had three runs, so I'm reluctant to say this performance shows us definitively how good he is.



Third placed GALILEO ROCK (33-pace adjusted 37) is a long striding, rangy, staying sort. He cannot have been suited to the quickening pace but was relentlessly closing the gap on the first two all the way through the last quarter mile and only lost by half a length.

This run suggests that Galileo Rock may not need two miles to show his best like his three parts brother Saddlers Rock. But he will clearly appreciate the step up to a mile and a half. The Lingfield Derby Trial and Chester Vase therefore shape up as logical targets for him.



HIGHLAND KNIGHT WILL BE TOUGH TO BEAT IN DOIMED STAKES

HIGHLAND KNIGHT (32-pace adjusted 36) showed just why he has trouble showing his best form on right handed tracks when running second in the Sandown Mile. He made the running but started drifting left as the field exited the home turn and turned for home. His jockey did his best to keep him straight but Trumpet Major was able to slip through on his inside and win.

Last season Highland Knight earned a big rating of 41 from me when winning Germany's top mile race, the Group 2 Oettingen-Rennen by three lengths. The form of that race has worked out well, so I'm inclined to think I got his rating right.

Highland Knight always needs his seasonal debut but has won the other most recent three times he's run left handed. He's already won at Epsom so I see no reason why he shouldn't take the Diomed Stakes there next time out. The track is left handed and the race is only a Group 3 so he's unlikely to face rivals as good as those he beat impressively in Germany.



HOT SNAP ONE OF THE BEST FILLIES IN YEARS

HOT SNAP (40) clocked an extraordinarily fast time when winning the Nell Gwyn Stakes. I rated it the best performance by a three year old filly before May in all the time I've been making speed ratings.

There can be no question that Hot Snap is not just Group 1 class but one of the best fillies of the past decade or more on this performance. Trainer Henry Cecil will never replace Frankel but it looks like he's found himself a worthy new flag bearer for his stable.

Early on in the race victory didn't look that likely because Hot Snap was clearly having trouble going the early pace. She was being rowed along in last place of the fourteen runners. However when stamina started to become an issue in the closing stages she surged through down the rail and swept past the top class Sky Lantern to score impressively and full of running.

The 1000 Guineas should be a formality for Hot Snap if my ratings are any guide. So the 5-1 currently being offered by the bookies looks incredibly generous.

What is more interesting to speculate on is what Hot Snap does after the Guineas.

Hot Snap got outpaced early and is by Pivotal, who has produced more middle distance sorts than the sire of her half sister Midday, a top class international mile and a half performer. So I think there's little doubt she will stay the Oaks distance. Logically therefore she should run in the Oaks after the Guineas. And, assuming she's as good as I rate her, then her obvious end of season target, given Cecil's preference for British races, has to be the Champion Stakes, now Britain's most valuable race.

No doubt if Hot Snap takes the Guineas and the Oaks there will be a lot of talk about the possibility of her emulating Cecil's Oh So Sharp by completing the fillies Triple Crown in the St Leger. It's an intriguing idea but I'd rather shoot for the money in the Champion Stakes and I suspect her connections will be inclined the same way.

Runner up SKY LANTERN (38) was held up and surged through from the rear with the winner but simply couldn't go with her in the final furlong.

In a normal year Sky Lantern would have been an impressive, clear cut winner of the Nell Gwyn and be a deserving favourite for the 1000 Guineas. She looks to have a big chance of at least running second in the race and would be good enough to win it if anything went wrong for Hot Snap. So the 12-1 plus the bookies are offering about her looks an each-way steal.

Sky Lantern's biggest chance of adding a Group 1 win will probably come in the Irish 2000 Guineas, assuming Hot Snap skips that race and she gets the fast surface she needs. She looks a specialist miler to me so all the big fillies races over a mile are obvious targets for her.



GARSWOOD IS A SMART SPRINTER

My research shows that horses gain speed not stamina with age, the opposite of what's assumed in the weight for age scale. So it's very hard for a three year old to beat older horses in the top sprints. And the annual Australian raiding party at Royal Ascot and beyond has made it even harder.

However GARSWOOD (38) won the Free Handicap so easily I can readily see him giving his elders a run for their money in the King's Stand or the Golden Jubilee at the Royal meeting.

Like a lot of smart sprinters, Garswood is a big-bodied horse. And he has loads of top class sprinters close up in his pedigree. He showed his pace in the Free Handicap by surging through to win clearly with his ears pricked, looking as if he was simply having an easy exercise gallop.

I can see how you could argue that Garswood might stay the extra furlong of the 2000 Guineas on this effort. But he's built and bred for sprinting and his last two runs were over five furlongs - a win in a Listed race and a head second in the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes. His size and the way he's put together suggest strongly to me that he's going to prove better over shorter than seven furlongs not longer.



TORONADO PROBABLY NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR GUINEAS

A strong wind cannot make a horse run faster than it's mechanically capable of going. But it does make it easier for them to sustain their top speed for longer. This, I think, is what explains the unusual situation that prevailed at Newmarket last Thursday when four of the seven winners made all or almost all the running.

The wind was reportedly coming from the West which means it was across as well as behind the runners. But it clearly affected the speed of races because a class 3 ten furlong handicap won by a tearaway pace-setter was run in a time just 0.26 of a second slower than the course record set by New Approach in the Champion Stakes (a course record that was also wind assisted).

In the circumstances I think we have to be rather wary of the apparent good form shown by the front running winners on the card. This is especially true for TORONADO (32-pace adjusted 38), the all the way winner of the Craven Stakes.

Toronado was allowed to amble through the first five furlongs in 62.26 seconds before sprinting the final three furlongs in a near miraculous 32.93 seconds. If we allow 1.7 seconds for the standing start that means he was travelling at a rate of 12.11 seconds per furlong for the first five furlongs and 10.98 seconds for the last three furlongs.

I do not know the precise strength or direction of the wind or how to quantify how much it was aiding the front runners. So I've left Toronado's pace adjusted rating untouched at 38. The fact that he earned a rating of 37 from me as a two year old suggests I may actually have his rating right.

However there are other factors that make me worry I may be rating Toronado a tad high.

The first is that Toronado's only serious rival among his three opponents was Dundonnell who missed work due to a bruised heel three weeks before and was probably unfit. Tawhid also needed the run according to his trainer. So Toronado really only had to beat Havana Gold, who surely needs longer.

The second is that only one of the last 21 winners of the Craven Stakes to run in the 2000 Guineas scored.

The third is that the form of the two pattern races Toronado won as a juvenile have not worked out very well. In fact the horses the beat in those contests have run a total of thirty times since without scoring a single win between them.

Of course this is one of those occasions when I could be horribly wrong. Newmarket is the only track in Britain or Ireland where race times are seriously and routinely affected by strong winds. So I just don't have enough data to even guess at its effect, let alone how strong it was for individual races.

Runner up HAVANA GOLD (28-pace adjusted 34) stayed on to take second in the closing stages after briefly getting outpaced. Previously I've been a bit dubious about his prospects of staying longer than a mile despite the face the has the build of a ten furlong horse. The thing that's troubled me is the thirty wins scored by his dam, her siblings and her foals have all been over a mile or less. However Havana Gold looks and runs like a ten furlong horse so I'm now inclined to say he will stay when he gets the chance to run that far which will apparently be soon.

It's worth noting that if his saddle hadn't slipped in one race and one photo had gone his way Havana Gold would have won all six of his starts prior to this loss. Consistency like that makes me suspect he's likely to prove better than the Group 3 class ratings I've been able to award him so far.

DUNDONNELL (28-pace adjusted 34) started to shorten his stride soon after the three furlong marker, which is pretty bad considering the pace had been rather slow to that point. I recognise he was unfit because a bruised heel caused him to miss work. But I'm now worried that the big edge in maturity his US pedigree gave him at two has evaporated and that's why he ran so moderately here.

I can't leave the Craven without noting the amazing record of Richard Hannon in the contest with horses that earned Racing Post ratings of 100 or more over seven furlongs as two year olds.

1990...Tirol............................WON 9-2

2000...Umistim.......................WON 8-1

2001...King's Ironbridge.........WON 12-1

2003...Hurricane Alan.............WON 9-1

2012...Trumpet Major.............WON 9-2

...........Crius.............................second

2013...Toronado.......................WON 8-11

...........Havana Gold..................second



HILLSTAR SHOULD IMPROVE

The ten furlong handicap for three year olds at Newmarket's Craven meeting has become a minor Derby Trial over the years. Many of the big stables seem to target it with horses that are very smart but unexposed. There isn't another race like it.

This year's race was clearly up to the usual standard as the winner SOVIET ROCK (37) clocked a time of 2m 0.39 seconds - just 0.26 of a second off the track record set by New Approach in the 2008 Champion Stakes and the second fastest time over ten furlongs in the long history of racing at Newmarket. The only other horse to break 2m 1 seconds for ten furlongs at Newmarket was Monterosso who went on to win the world's most valuable race, the Dubai World Cup.

I should add that the time Soviet Rock ran was aided by a tailwind. But so were those clocked by New Approach and Monterosso.

Soviet Rock made all the running at a strong pace and probably enjoyed a significant advantage by being pushed clear at halfway, thanks to the tailwind. However he rallied strongly when the runner up attacked in the last furlong and held his advantage of a length all the way through the last hundred yards.

Soviet Rock's connections must now decide whether to exploit what will probably still be a very lenient official handicap mark or shoot for a Derby Trial. Whatever route they decide on he will merit plenty of respect next time.

Runner up HILLSTAR (36) was attempting to give weight and a head start to the winner and looked as if he might do it when surging forwards in the closing stages. He was hemmed in briefly by the third approaching the furlong pole but this didn't affect the result. He simply couldn't quite get to the winner.

Hillstar looks a proper mile and a half sort to me, so I'd like to see him go for the Chester Vase or Lingfield Derby Trial rather than a shorter Derby trial. He's probably not going to prove up to Classic standard but I'd like to see him tackle a longer, more normally run race before saying that definitively.





INTELLO IS USEFUL

When Andre Fabre sends a horse over to Britain before the Guineas meeting it's time to sit up and take notice. He's won six times out of twelve in these circumstances over the last quarter century, as you can see from his results below:

1988,.....Soviet Star........Trusthouse Forte Mile....WON

1992......Lion Cavern......Greenham Stakes...........WON

1992,.....Steinbeck...........Free Handicap................second

1995..... Diffident............Free Handicap................WON

1999......Xaar..................Craven Stakes.................WON

2005......Valixir...............Earl of Sefton Stakes.......third

2006......Sweet Travel.....Nell Gwyn......................fourth

2006......Arrivee..............Fred Darling....................tenth

2006......Reve Lunaire.....Greenham.......................fourth

2007......Manduro............Earl Of Sefton.................WON

2011......Polytichnicien....Earl Of Sefton.................second

2013......Intello................Feilden Stakes.................WON

Fabre's latest early season British winner came in the form of INTELLO (31-pace adjusted 37) in Newmarket's Feilden Stakes over nine furlongs.

The early pace wasn't great in the Feilden Stakes but Intello came through smoothly to increase it markedly from three furlongs out and steadily forge clear, showing a long, flowing stride. He's built more for middle distances than a mile and Fabre was talking about the Prix du Jockey Club after this success.

Intello needs to do more to prove he's up to Classic standard. But he's unbeaten in three starts and should improve over longer distances. So it's too early to say he's not up to the task.





OLYMPIC GLORY SHOULD DO BETTER OVER A MILE

Sprint finishes can make a horse look bad, especially when it is running over a distance short of its best. This, I suspect, is why it was such a struggle for OLYMPIC GLORY (30-pace adjusted 36) to win the Greenham Stakes. However he did eventually start to come away from his rivals in the closing stages. And over a mile rather than seven furlongs I think he'll do better, especially off a stronger early pace.

Olympic Glory will face a hard task next time out when he tackles the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) against what looks set to be an unusually strong field. It could well be he's going to have a tough time in Group 1 company this season but I want to see what he can do over a mile off a stronger pace before reaching that conclusion.

Third placed MOOHAAJIM (28-pace adjusted 34) surged forwards, moving smoothly and easily approaching the furlong pole and looked set to sweep by the first and second (he went three to one on in running). But he tired and hung left in the closing stages and failed to go through with his effort. He's a good moving sort and would almost certainly have appreciated faster ground. It's also quite possible he failed to stay the seventh furlong. The main concern is that he was visibly smaller than his rivals and doesn't seem to have grown much from two to three.

UN DE SCEAUX DOES IT AGAIN

UN DE SCEAUX (38) maintained his unbeaten record when easily winning a good two mile novice hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. As ever he made all the running at a very strong pace and just kept on rolling.

In fact Un De Sceaux did seem to go off a little bit too hard, just like he did on his previous Irish start. He set a pace 5.8 seconds faster to the fourth jump than they went in the Irish Champion Hurdle on the same card. This is clearly what trainer Willie Mullins meant when he said "he can be a bit hard on himself."

The trouble with the gung ho approach to racing of Un De Sceaux is that he must take a lot out of himself. To date all his four runs have been preceded by a break longer than nine weeks. Until he proves me wrong I'll be wary of betting him any time his last run was less than six weeks ago.

I suspect Willie Mullins is right to plan on keeping Un De Sceaux to two miles and hurdles next season. His future lies over fences but he's still young and right now he probably needs a bit more experience before he goes longer distances or tackles bigger jumps. I'd like to think he could be taught to settle in behind other runners eventually. Then he'll have more chance of fulfilling his potential.



JEZKI UNSTOPPABLE IN SMALL FIELDS

I suggested after his Cheltenham loss that JEZKI (41) was likely to bounce back at Punchestown. My prediction was based on the idea that horses with a turn of foot like Jezki, especially those that are slightly below average in size as he is, often need a smallish field to produce their best form.

Sure enough Jezki ran away from his five rivals in the Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle. He improved from third to range up alongside the front running Champagne Fever turning in. He was still just level sixteen strides before the last jump but accelerated so smartly he opened up a gap of sixteen lengths in the remaining furlong and a half to the line.

Jezki has won all seven times he's run in fields of twelve or less and looks capable of running even faster than I've been able to rate him so far. I have to say that he's got such a smart turn of foot I'd be thinking about trying him in some big races on the flat if he were mine.

As I've mentioned before, the last four renewals of the Champion Hurdle have all featured fields of twelve or less. This makes me rather interested in the 12-1 you can get from the bookies for Jezki in that race.





PAY DAY KITTEN LOOKS PATTERN CLASS

PAY DAY KITTEN (36) clocked a pattern class time to win a strongly run mile maiden at Naas.

I liked the way she and the runner up powered six lengths clear of the rest in the final furlong, having only been a length ahead of them at the furlong marker. For a while it looked like she might struggle to get by the determined runner up. But she asserted to score ridden out but with her ears still pricked by half a length as her superior stamina started to become a factor late in the race.

Pay Day Kitten was a fairly late foal, so it's perhaps understandable that she still looks rather leggy and light framed. If

My feeling is that Pay Day Kitten will do best over ten furlongs but she's clearly pretty smart already over a mile.

Runner up HOLD THE LINE (36) was unlucky to come up against such a useful rival in a maiden. He's surely going to be winning soon.
 
TEN FURLONGS THE RIGHT DISTANCE FOR PASTORIUS

You will rarely see a European Group 1 other than the Arc with a greater depth of talent than that of this year's Prix Ganay. Five individual Group 1 winners lined up plus the Arc fourth Haya Landa and Maxios who may well be the top ten furlong horse in France.

There were two pacemakers in the race but they weren't Group class so the riders on the other horses refused to chase them. The jockey on Ridasiyna's pacemaker Mandistana saw this when he took a worried look back at his rivals soon after the start and decided there was no point trying to kick on faster. The result was that the field chugged through the first five and a half furlongs in 1m 10.22 seconds before sprinting the last five furlongs in 58.17 seconds. In other words they went 12.76 seconds a furlong to just after halfway then 11.63 seconds a furlong for the rest of the race.

The winner PASTORIUS (37-pace adjusted 42) raced in third, a couple of lengths clear of the rest, and looked set to get first run on them when the sprint began in earnest approaching the two furlong marker. But he got caught between the pacemakers falling back quickly and those behind closing up sharply and had to switch around Mandistana to find racing room. This allowed the fast finishing Maxios to range alongside and the pair then engaged in a spirited duel to the line.

Pastorius was always going best and steadily forged clear to win by a length. My impression was that he could have pulled out a little more if required.

This run establishes Pastorius as a viable candidate for the top older horse in Europe.

What's puzzling is that while Pastorius has won four of the six times he's run ten furlongs or more he's twice run below form since stepping up in trip. One of his sub par efforts came when he got beat by the Group 2 filly Ovambo Queen into third when the pair finished behind a sub par Danedream in last year's Grosser Preis von Baden. The other was when he finished nearly eight lengths behind Frankel and Cirrus Des Aigles in the Champion Stakes.

My thinking is that Pastorius failed to last home in both those races.

I know Pastorius won the German Derby over a mile and a half. But that was around a tight track off a slow early pace. He didn't seem to quite stay the mile and a half the only other time he tried the distance in the Grosser Preis von Baden. And though the Champion Stakes was only ten furlongs the pace was strong, the ground was very soft and the track features a huge rise of 13 metres from start to finish which makes it much more of a stamina test.

The pedigree of Pastorius points to the same conclusion. His sire Soldier Hollow was a top class performer over ten furlongs but failed to score the three times he tackled eleven furlongs (he never tried longer). His dam broke her maiden at Munich over eleven furlongs, but that was in a very slow run race. Her two subsequent wins were over ten furlongs and none of her other offspring have won beyond ten furlongs.

This being so I'd like to see Pastorius kept to ten furlongs from now on. If he is tried over a mile and a half again I'll be inclined to oppose him.

Runner up MAXIOS (36-pace adjusted 41) has a tremendous finishing kick and looked a major threat when he moved alongside the winner but just couldn't quite go with him in the last furlong.

Maxios looks more of a ten furlong specialist than his famous brother Bago and ran yet another big race here.

It's worth remembering that trainer Jonathan Pease says Maxios is best fresh. So far he's won six of the nine times he's run ten furlongs or less on one of his first two starts of the season or with a five week plus break thereafter. This being so I think he should skip his engagement in the Singapore Airlines Cup on May 19th and be kept fresh for the Prince Of Wales at Royal Ascot. He's in the Arlington Million two months after that which looks a good plan as long as he's not run beforehand.

DUNADEN (36-pace adjusted 41) was eight lengths behind in last place when the sprint for home began five furlongs out. So he did well to sweep down the outside to take third by only two lengths.

Since he started running in better races a bit more than three years ago Dunaden seems to have had his training geared towards the big international prizes on offer from mid-October through to the end of the year. He's won six of the last nine times he's run in that period but just one of the last eighteen times he's run earlier in the year.

However Dunaden's owner Sheikh Fahad has apparently expressed a desire to win a European Group 1 with Dunaden. His trainer Mikael Delzangles looks to be trying to accommodate this as this was the horse's second start of the year. He is surely gearing him up for an attack on the Coronation Cup.

The Coronation Cup is often a weak Group 1. I can readily see Dunaden winning it. This big run off a moderate pace over ten and a half furlongs also opens up the possibility of winning shorter races.

GIOFRA (35-pace adjusted 40) has shown her best in more strongly run races. She tends to get done for a turn of foot when there's a seriously fast sprint finish as there was here. So she did well ho hold on for fourth place.

Giofra's connections have talked in the past about stepping her up to a mile and a half. That still looks a good idea to me. After all her best ever performance came when she ran away with the ten furlong Prix d'Harcourt off a strong pace. The way she powered clear in the closing stages of that race made it look clear she'd have no trouble with another quarter mile.

I know Giofra has won a Group 1 over a mile, but that was on soft ground. As I see it the plan to cut her back to that distance for the Queen Anne is a big mistake. She should be running in longer races, preferably in Britain or Ireland where the early pace tends to be stronger than it is in France.

Fifth placed SAOINOIS (34-pace adjusted 39) failed to make any progress under pressure up the straight but still put up a decent performance on what was his first start of the season.

It's easy to knock Saonois as being part of a weak crop of British, French and Irish three year olds from last season. But he's actually got a very good record when running on fast ground off a recent run. In fact, if a short head photo against the useful Sir Jade had gone his way Saonois would now be unbeaten in seven starts on fast turf or the All Weather off breaks of six weeks or less. This being so I'm going to be wary of betting he's as slow as many think he is in future. After all he did win the Prix du Jockey Club from the smart Saint Baudolino.

The most eye-catching performance in the race came from sixth placed RIDASIYNA (34-pace adjusted 39). She clearly didn't like the moderate pace and raced keenly. In fact she was throwing her head about wildly with only half a mile to run.

This was obviously only a warm up for Ridasiyna as her jockey was at pains to just nudge her along with hands and heels in the closing stages. Nonetheless she still gained ground while moving smoothly all the way to the line. I should note here that it's standard practice in France to allow big name horses to be given an easy time of things in their first start off a lay-off.

Ridasiyna is a tricky ride as she pulls hard when seeing too much daylight early and also eases herself up if she hits the front too soon. This explains why her two Group wins have been in big fields where she's not led until a furlong out or later. She needs to be found cover and then delivered late. The smallish field and moderate pace were all against her here.

When she won the Prix l'Opera last season I awarded Ridasiyana the same speed rating as the Arc winner later on the same card. I continue to think though that the ten furlongs of that race is short of her best distance and that she won so well due to the strong gallop and heavy ground. On a normal surface I think a mile and a half is going to prove her best distance.

It's getting a bit late in her career to keep on hoping that Ridasiyna can be made to settle in a small field. So if she were mine I'd be forgetting about any European targets but the Arc and Vermeille this season. Those are the only European races where she's likely to meet a big field.

I'd like to see Ridasiyna saved for big international races late in the year like the QEII Commemorative Cup in Japan and the Hong Kong Vase where big fields are guaranteed. There'd be no big harm giving her another shot or two in more European races featuring small fields now she's racing fit. Perhaps she can adapt. But the big opportunities for her surely lie in giving her a long summer break then bringing her back for the four late season races I've named.



MSHAWISH HAS A BIG CHANCE IN POULAINS

MSHAWISH (31-pace adjusted 39) established himself as one of the top European three year old colts on my ratings with an awesome performance over a mile at Saint-Cloud.

In the early stages Mshawish was restrained behind most of his rivals. But it was evident his jockey was sitting with a double handful so well was he going. He was allowed to ease forward rounding the home turn along the rail and was well positioned as the leader Welcome Sir produced a terrific burst with two furlongs to run. Welcome Sir quickened so smartly he extended his lead from one length to eight lengths over everything bar Mshawish as they ran between the two furlong to one furlong from home markers. The leader had been running at a rate of 13.9 seconds a furlong up to the two furlong pole then picked up to go 11.5 seconds a furlong over the last quarter mile despite the soft ground.

This massive injection of acceleration was no problem at all to Mshawish. He simply needed to be nudged along with hands and heels to quickly cruise by Welcome Sir and bound two and a half lengths clear by the finish.

I concede that Mshawish has the build of a ten furlong specialist and that both sides of his pedigree point towards that being his right distance. But he won so well here over a mile I don't see any problem with him keeping to the shorter trip for the Poulains (French 2000 Guineas).

Seeing how brilliantly he won it's pretty amazing Mshawish managed to lose his only previous start, a one mile maiden on Chantilly's Polytrack. However if you watch that race you'll see that he was hopelessly boxed in on the rail in twelfth position approaching the final furlong. He remained stuck until well inside the final furlong - and when he finally got clear he bounded forwards, gaining ground on the horses around him at a terrific rate to finish fifth.

Mshawish is a good moving sort that will surely appreciate faster ground. He looks the have a major chance of winning the Poulains. I only have Style Vendome faster on my ratings.

I can see how you could argue I'm over-rating the form since runner up WELCOME SIR (29-pace adjusted 37) has already run six times this year for a single win in a provincial maiden last time. But Welcome Sir has improved significantly with every start and beat a rival with good form that's entered in two Classics last time. My ratings suggest he's capable of winning a Listed or Group 3 contest. And the way he accelerated so quickly away from the rest of the field tells me the same thing.

It's worth noting that the only horses with official ratings in this seven horse race were the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh. They were rated 88, 89, 87 and 91 respectively and got beat eleven, twelve and three quarter, thirteen and nineteen lengths. Lines of form through them also suggest my big rating for the winner is fully justified.



TABLEAUX A SERIOUS DERBY CANDIDATE

Coolmore's French arm have turned up a serious Derby candidate in TABLEAUX (35-pace adjusted 38). This Andre Fabre trained colt did well to win the Group 2 Prix Noailles over ten and a half furlongs at Longchamp. He was asked to come from behind a slow pace and gain ground into a sprint finish and did so readily.

The front running Kapour had been allowed to amble towards the two furlong from home point at a rate of just 13.5 seconds a furlong when you deduct the 1.7 seconds for the standing start. He then accelerated sharply, leading to the final quarter mile being run in just 22.29 seconds.

Understandably Tableaux had to be ridden along quite vigorously to gain ground at such a pace. But he did the job well, coming through from fourth place down the outside to win by half a length.

The Prix Noialles is one of only five Group 2 Derby Trials run in Europe. The other four are the Prix Greffulhe, the Dante, the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial and the Union-Rennen.

As with the other Group 2 Derby Trials, Prix Noialles winners are often Group 1 performers. Indeed 16 of the last 25 winners of the race ended their careers as Group 1 winners. That puts it only one behind the Dante Stakes, as you can see from the following list which shows how many of the past 25 winners of these races ended up winning a Group 1:

Dante Stakes...............................17

Prix Noialles..............................16

Prix Greffulhe.............................12

Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial...11

Union Rennen.............................11

These stats and the good rating I've awarded Tableaux suggest he's a viable candidate for the Prix du Jockey Club. However he's a rangy, long striding sort that looks more of a mile and a half performer to me. So I suspect he won't make the improvement needed to win over the shorter distance of the Prix du Jockey Club. It seems to me he should be allowed to take up his entry in the Derby.

Horses that have won one of the two Group 2 French Derby trials have done well when they've run in the Derby or Irish Derby instead of the Prix du Jockey Club or Grand Prix de Paris. You can see this from their recent record in these contests:



Derby

2006....Visindar.....................fifth

2007....Soldier Of Fortune.....fifth

2011.....Pour Moi...................WON

Irish Derby

1999....Montjeu......................WON

2002....Ballingarry..................third

2003....Dalakhani....................second

2006....Gentlewave.................second

2007....Soldier Of Fortune......WON



On his only previous try beyond a mile Tableaux ran third to the smart Bravodino at Saint-Cloud. In that race he fly jumped at the start then pulled very hard till his jockey wrestled him right back to second last position to find cover. He was badly boxed in until a couple of furlongs out and gained ground in the sprint finish but was never going to get to the winner who had already flown.

The interesting question right now is where will Tableaux run next? My thinking is that the best plan would be for him to tackle the Lingfield Derby Trial. This would give him an experience of a track somewhat like Epsom plus the longer distance he's likely to prefer. He'd probably start at short odds for the race and win it comfortably, so it would be an ideal way to keep him ticking over till the Derby.

Runner up KAPOUR (34-pace adjusted 37) was rather hoist by his own petard as he was unable to cope with the wild sprint finish his slow pacemaking brought about. Everything was gaining on him in the final furlong and he'd have only been fourth in one or two more strides.

Kapour showed good acceleration when winning last time. But that was in a race run on heavy ground where the closing stages were run at a rate of 13.1 seconds a furlong. Here, at 11.1 seconds a furlong he was flat to the boards and slightly outpaced by his rivals.

Previously I had thought that ten furlongs rather than twelve would prove the optimum distance for Kapour. I'm now inclined to think that the slightly slower finish of races over the longer distance will suit him better. Then again it could simply be he's better suited to being held up off the pace as he was last time. By setting the pace here he seemed to become a sitting duck.

It is also worth noting that, due to the downhill penultimate furlong, the last quarter mile at Longchamp are always run about a second faster than at other tracks. It could well be that on a more level course or one with an uphill gradient like Chantilly (ten metre rise in the last 600 metres) he won't get done for a turn of foot as he was here. Only time will tell.

Third placed ART CONTEMPRAIN (34-pace adjusted 37) chugged along in second place early and slowly closed the gap on Kapour all through the sprint finish. He'd won a Polytrack maiden on his only previous start and is clearly pattern class. At this stage I'd tag him as a Group 3 ten furlong horse but it's too early to say for sure.

Fourth placed MAX DYNAMITE (34-pace adjusted 37) was the unlucky horse in the race as he was trapped behind a wall of horses when the sprint began and had to be switched out for a run. He finished strongest of all and would have been second in another stride or two. He's built for a mile and a half and has already won over eleven furlongs around the giant oval at Fontainebleau (1m 7f circumference, 3.5f homestraight). I like his chances of improving over a longer distance.



SIYENICA ON THE WAY TO THE TOP

SIYENICA (36) put up a very good performance to win a Conditions race over a mile at Longchamp on her racecourse debut.

Settled in last place after pulling hard early, Siyenica wasn't asked for her effort until switched out for a run with two furlongs left. At this point she ran around and was still last, but approaching the final furlong she straightened up and swept by all her rivals for a half length success in pattern class time.

Trainer Alain Royer-Dupre said after the race "I don't usually run them first time in a 'b' race against experienced horses unless I am sure of their quality and this one has plenty."

Siyenica's dam Sichilla has had only two previous foals - Siyouni and Siyouma. Both were Group 1 winners. I'd say there's a serious chance of Siyenica making it three Group 1 winners from three foals on what I saw here.

Siyenica is a good-bodied filly that looks more a middle distance horse than a miler. But she's clearly effective over the shorter distance. However Alain Royer-Dupre says the Aga Khan's filly is unlikely to take up her entry in the Pouliches (French 1000) and will probably be running in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks). Later on she's entered in the Irish Oaks.
 

What's puzzling is that while Pastorius has won four of the six times he's run ten furlongs or more he's twice run below form since stepping up in trip. One of his sub par efforts came when he got beat by the Group 2 filly Ovambo Queen into third when the pair finished behind a sub par Danedream in last year's Grosser Preis von Baden. The other was when he finished nearly eight lengths behind Frankel and Cirrus Des Aigles in the Champion Stakes.

My thinking is that Pastorius failed to last home in both those races.

Mordin makes me laugh; the reason Pastorius got humped by Frankel is because he stepped up in trip beforehand? Come on Nick! :lol:
 
Colin Phillips said:
Of course this is one of those occasions when I could be horribly wrong. Newmarket is the only track in Britain or Ireland where race times are seriously and routinely affected by strong winds. So I just don't have enough data to even guess at its effect, let alone how strong it was for individual races.
Click to expand...

What sort of Timefigure did Toronado clock in the Craven? Pretty sure they account for wind.
 
Just my view, but it's the effect the wind had on the ground (rather than the horses) that created the fast times. The 6f race was also run within about 0.3 secs of the course record, as I recall.
Whatever, I fail to see how a tailwind would favour frontrunners?
 
FARRH STILL LOOKS BETTER OVER LONGER

The strong early pace of the Lockinge Stakes enabled FARRH (41) to show his best ever form over a mile. He kicked four lengths clear of his rivals in the closing stages to win in very good style.

This run raises the possibility that with the aid of a pacemaker Farrh might be able to show something close to his ten furlong form over the stiff mile of the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. That would give him a real shot against Animal Kingdom and co.

Further back in the field we had DECLARATION OF WAR (31) who came there to challenge with two furlongs to run but was soon in trouble, getting beat nearly a dozen lengths.

It's interesting to note that Declaration Of War's only other loss in seven starts came the only other time he did not race around a full turn. A more likely excuse is that he simply needs longer. After all his only wins over a mile have been on Fibreand and soft ground. In addition he's won over almost 1m 3f at Dundalk. I also have to note the excuse given by his rider that he became very upset in the starting stalls.

Only time will tell just what the problem was with Declaration Of War. Certainly he's done enough to warrant continuing with him in top level races.



WILLING FOE A SERIOUSLY GOOD STAYER

These days the only country with a decent population of stayers and plenty of good races for them to run in is France. However WILLING FOE (41) demonstrated with his win in the Aston Park Stakes at Newbury that he's right up there with the best marathon runners in training. Indeed the way he zipped away from his rivals in the closing stages suggests he might well be able to cut back to a mile and a half and be competitive in Group 1 company.

Willing Foe was full of running at the end of the race and looks a seriously good stayer. His record says the same thing. He lost his belated seasonal debut last year in July when surely needing the run but has won the other five times he's run longer than ten furlongs on anything but soft or heavy ground. I can't understand how the bookies have him marked up at 20-1 for the Ascot Gold Cup. I reckon he'd be terrific value at half that price.





INDIAN CHIEF MAY BE THE ONE TO TAKE FROM THE DANTE

LIBERTARIAN (39) won what looked like a solid renewal of the Dante. And there's little question that he'll be suited to the longer distance in the Derby. He's a long striding colt who only got rolling inside the last furlong but ended up winning going away by a length and a quarter.

The big concern watching the way he used his big, raking stride to get up so late is whether he'll handle the long downhill run to Tattenham Corner and the counter camber at Epsom. The fact that he lacked the change of gear needed to avoid getting carried very wide on his previous start at Sandown adds to this worry. The trainer's husband Karl Burke admitted as much afterwards, telling reporters "We came today because he learned nothing last time and even today he is running green. That´s going to be a major problem in the Derby if we go that route which I am sure we probably will."

The victory of Workforce in the Derby back in 2010 shows that a long striding colt that's rather hard to manouver can score at Epsom. But I'd be inclined to side against Libertarian in the big race unless there's a relatively small field which would make it easier for him to avoid traffic problems.

For most of the race it looked likely that we'd be hailing INDIAN CHIEF (37) as the winner because he was visibly moving better than his rivals. When he surged forward to take the lead inside the final furlong I expected him to go on with his effort. But perhaps he idled or ran a little green. In any event he slowed down suddenly and got beat two lengths into third.

Indian Chief isn't in the Derby but does hold entries in the Prix du Jockey Club and Grand Prix de Paris. He looks a decent candidate for those races.

Runner up TRADING LEATHER (38) tired into third and looked held till effectively inheriting second place when Indian Chief slowed up in the last half furlong. I wouldn't like to bet on him lasting a mile and a half on what I saw here. And I have to say I don't like the fact that he seemed relatively small in stature compared to his rivals. This suggests he hasn't strengthened and mature as much as most horses do from two to three.





RULER OF THE WORLD A GROUP 1 PROSPECT

RULER OF THE WORLD (31-pace adjusted 39) won the Chester Vase in good style. He had to be scrubbed along as the ordinary early pace accelerated into a sprint finish. But in the final furlong or so he powered clear to score by six lengths.

This run ranks as a very solid effort by Ruler Of The World. It's just three lengths a mile off the fastest rating I've awarded a Derby Trial winner in the last twenty years (Erhaab 1994 Dante) and suggests he is a Group 1 prospect.

From a Derby perspective it's a plus that Ruler Of The World found it easy to hold his line around Chester's tight turns. To date he has won both his starts in sprint finishes. But he looks likely to be suited by a greater test of stamina, so there's clearly scope for improvement

I don't see Ruler Of The World's lack of experience as a big problem in regards to Epsom. After all fourteen of the last twenty five Derby winners had three or fewer previous starts.





EKTIHAAM IS GROUP 1 CLASS

EKTIHAAM (34-pace adjusted 41) is a horse that seems to hoover up all the traffic problems that are going in a race. So it was a smart plan to make all the running on him in the Listed Buckhounds Stakes at Ascot. Initially he set a comfortable gallop but really kicked on from halfway and had all his rivals in trouble from a long way out. He ended up scoring by six lengths, putting up what I rate a Group 1 class performance, just as he did in the Dante Stakes a year ago.

The fact that he's so big-bodied and rather slow to manouver does seem to give Ektihaam trouble in big fields. All his wins and best since his maiden success have been in fields of seven or less. He's even managed to hit traffic in fields of five and seven.

Making the running looks the logical solution to Ektihaam's problem. It will be interesting to see if it works in his next race, the Hardwicke Stakes, where he looks sure to encounter a much bigger field. It could well be that it is the step up to a mile and a half that enabled him to show his best form and that over the longer distance he'll prove easier to manouver. Whatever happens to him in the Hardwicke he surely deserves a shot at the King George, a race that has featured a single figure field in six of the last seven years.

Runner up THOMAS CHIPPENDALE (38) got beat what I calculate as five lengths into second rather than the official six. He was a little keen early but ran close to his best.

As I've mentioned before I think Thomas Chippendale is not at his best on dead flat tracks like Doncaster, Newbury and York. He's run big every time he's tackled a track with gradients.

Third placed MAIN SEQUENCE (37) was under pressure from a long way out and just couldn't get to the first two. His jockey recognised this fully a furlong out where he took a look over his shoulder, realised he had third place in safe keeping and then allowed his mount to coast the rest of the way. I think he'd have finished a length or two closer but for this and am rating him on that basis. Most likely he needed this run, his first since being gelded following his run in the St Leger last September.





DANADANA TOUGH TO BEAT ON FAST GROUND

DANADANA (35-pace adjusted 39) looked all at sea around the tight turns at Chester but still came through strongly in the closing stages to catch the smart Highland Knight and win the Group 3 Huxley Stakes.

This success means that Danadana has now won all five times he's run on ground where the word 'firm' has featured in the official going description. He's lost his other six starts.

Seeing how he floundered around the tight turns here it's interesting to speculate on just how good Danadana might be on a more galloping track when he gets his ground. We should find out next time as he's due to contest the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot.

It could well be that in Danadana Luca Cumani now has another ex handicapper on his hands that is going to prove competitive in big international races.

Runner up HIGHLAND KNIGHT (34-pace adjusted 38) is a hard horse to beat on a left-handed track, particularly one with tight turns. He had in fact won four of the five previous times he'd run around relatively tight left handed courses. But he couldn't quite contain the winner in the last furlong here.

Third placed GABRIAL ((34-pace adjusted 38) stayed on well to get beat only a length. But he hung badly towards the running rail, as he has done so often before.

Being a long striding sort, Gabrial lacks the push button acceleration needed to nip through narrow gaps. So he often has to be switched out to the centre of the course to make his run. He then seems to make a bee line for the running rail. He tends to shift left but went right on his previous start.

I don't know if a solution can be found to Gabrial's tendency to come off a straight line. Perhaps he could grab the running rail right from the start by being kicked into an early lead instead of coming from behind. Maybe some kind of headgear would help. Possibly softer ground. In any event he continues to look capable of producing a bit better than the Group 3 class form he's shown thus far, if only some way can be found to make him run in a straight line.

SECRET GESTURE HARD TO ASSESS

Two things make the Oaks trial success of SECRET GESTURE (36) at Lingfield hard to assess. Firstly the going was softening throughout the day due to rain. Secondly her jockey sat still throughout the closing stages. He took several looks back at his rivals and realised he didn't need to push her to score by ten lengths.

It's easy to run away with the idea that Secret Gesture could have increased her winning margin significantly. But it's worth bearing in mind that the second pulled like a train, had to be allowed to lead at halfway and then probably did too much too soon when kicking for home three furlongs out. This surely amplified Secret Gesture's advantage.

In addition Secret Gesture's trainer Ralph Beckett seems to get his fillies a lot fitter for Guineas and Oaks trials than most handlers, probably reasoning that it's a good opportunity for them to earn the black type they need to have value as broodmares. He's won with six of the 27 fillies he's run in Guineas and Oaks Trials, reaching the first three with 16 of them. But Look Here is the only filly he's trained to win a Group 1 in 21 tries.



NEVIS GRINDS OUT DECENT WIN IN DERBY TRIAL

NEVIS (33-pace adjusted 37) coped well with the softening ground to make all the running in the Lingfield Derby Trial. He quickened up to get all his rivals in trouble up the straight and score by nine lengths.

I don't know how good Nevis will prove to be. But he beat the useful Ralston Road three lengths the only previous time he ran beyond a sprint trip and is clearly Group class. He certainly makes a logical addition to team Coolmore for the Derby. If nothing else he can be used to ensure a good pace.





MAGICIAN PROBABLY NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR DERBY

MAGICIAN (33-pace adjusted 37) showed a really good turn of foot to scoot away from his rivals in the closing stages of the Dee Stakes. He's an athletic, racy colt that clearly has very good acceleration.

However I cannot rate this performance good enough to rank Magician as one of the major contenders for the Derby. Indeed, he has so much pace that with a sprinter as his dam I rather wonder whether the ten furlongs of the Dee Stakes might be as far as he wants to go.



WHY DID DAWN APPROACH RUN SO SLOW?

The thing that leaps off the page when you analyse the success of DAWN APPROACH (37) in the 2000 Guineas is the remarkably slow time he ran. When I compare it with the times of the other races on the card I cannot rate it any better than a Listed to Group 3 class performance, even if I try to find a way to adjust the rating using sectional times.

But don't just take my word for it. Raceform rated it the slowest 2000 Guineas on their figures since they started producing their speed ratings to a new formula fourteen years ago. And the Racing Post rated it the second slowest of all 2000 Guineas since they first started producing Topspeed ratings 25 years ago.

I think the reason for the slow time is that the other jockeys sat too far off the pace being set by Leitir Mor and Glory Awaits. They clearly thought the leaders were going too fast and let them slip clear. The sectional times produced by Turftrax suggest they were wrong. These show that by halfway only Dawn Approach and Toronado were within four lengths of the leader, and then only just. The rest of the field trailed the pacemakers by four and three quarter lengths or more.

Leitir Mor came back to the field but Glory Awaits just kept on running. His jockey Jamie Spencer caught his rivals napping and stole a big head start on them in the run for home.

No doubt the other jockeys thought Glory Awaits was going to stop. But he hadn't actually run that fast to halfway to earn his head start. He had enough left to zip through the next three furlongs in just 35.2 seconds.

It's hard for horses to gain any significant ground on a rival that is travelling that fast. So it was only in the final furlong when Glory Awaits finally tired slightly that most of the runners had any chance to make ground. By that time Dawn Approach had exploited the advantage he'd gained by sticking closer to the pace and was storming clear.

I've little doubt that Dawn Approach's time would have been faster if he'd stayed even closer to the pace than he did. But I don't have any formula that lets me guess at how much faster he could have run, so I'm leaving his very low speed rating unchanged.

It's hard to make sense of such an oddly run race. All I can really say is that Dawn Approach looked impressive and has earned ratings as high as 40 from me in the past.

Of course I may be overanalysing things here. It could be that Dawn Approach ran slow because he hasn't trained on and his rivals were either moderate or unable to produce their best for one reason or another. Certainly the poor previous form of the runner up is a concern in this regard. He'd only won a maiden from eight previous outings and the sole place he'd achieved in three pattern race starts was a ten and a half lengths third in a Listed contest.

The game now moves on to Epsom. And I can see why some might get excited about Dawn Approach's chance of winning the Derby. After all the last four horses to run in the Derby after finishing first or second in the 2000 Guineas all won (Sir Percy, New Approach, Sea The Stars and Camelot). In addition Dawn Approach's sire, New Approach, was one of those four horses. He won the Derby himself.

None of New Approach's progeny have run beyond ten furlongs to date. However he doesn't seem like a tremendous influence for stamina when you break down the performance of his progeny by distance;

5-6f.....8 wins from 30 starts....26.7%

7-8f.....14 wins from 73 starts..19.2%

longer..3 wins from 24 starts....12.5%

The picture looks worse when you consider Dawn Approach's dam, Hymn Of The Dawn.

None of the other three progeny of Hymn Of The Dawn seemed to stay longer than a mile. This is not surprising. She is by the brilliant sprinter and sire of sprinters Phone Trick.

I saw Phone Trick when I did a tour of Kentucky stud farms some years ago and he was such a ball of muscle I told the stud manager "Gosh, he looks like a quarter horse." The stud manager replied that in fact Phone Trick was proving popular as a quarter horse stallion. (Quarter horses are called that because they only run a quarter of a mile.)

Of course horses are not governed by their pedigrees. They don't necessarily inherit genes that ensure they have the same distance limits as their sire or dam. This has been shown by the 'speed gene test', developed at University College Dublin by Dr Emmeline Hill, His test predicts the best distance for an individual horse by examining genes responsible for muscle mass development and attaching either the letter C or T to the horse, which has two copies of the gene. Horses can then be CC, a fast, speedy type, CT, a fast middle-distance type, or TT, which indicates stamina.

Dawn Approach's trainer Jim Bolger clearly thinks a lot of Dr Hill's research because he co-founded the company Equinome with him to market the speed gene test.

Bolger told reporters last year that he used the speed gene test himself and had tested Dawn Approach. He said "Hymn Of The Dawn [Dawn Approach's dam] was a CC and when she was covered by New Approach he was a CT. She could only contribute a C and it happened that New Approach contributed a C, so Dawn Approach is a CC - or miler - for me."

With pedigree and genes knocking his stamina we're down to the old nurture versus nature arguement if we want to find a way to suggest Dawn Approach may last the mile and a half at Epsom.

In this regard it's undeniable that some trainers have a knack of getting horses to outstay their pedigrees. Mark Johnston is the prime example of this. He seems able to train pretty much any horse to stay a mile and a half plus.

Jim Bolger on the other hand does appear to produce a bias towards shorter distances with his training methods, at least with the better male horses he trains. You can see this from his record in pattern races with male horses from 1996 to date:

5-7f.......... 33 wins from 180 runs ..18.3%

8-11f ........31 wins from 218 runs ..14.2%

12f+ ...........2 wins from 36 runs ......5.6%

I can't think of any better guides to a horse's stamina than its pedigree, its genetic profile and its trainer. And with all three giving Dawn Approach a big thumbs down in regards to the Derby distance and his time for the 2000 Guineas being so slow I have to say the 7-4 currently being offered by the bookies for Epsom looks amazingly stingy. Indeed I have to question whether his connections will really go through with running him in the Derby once they've had time to reflect on the situation.

Of the losers the two who put up the most interesting performances for me were Garswood and Mars. Both came from well off the pace. The fact that they clocked the third and fourth fastest times over the final seven furlongs suggests to me that if the early pace had been stronger or they'd been able to lie up closer they might well have placed.

GARSWOOD (27) was dropped out to get the distance then got squeezed out into last place soon after the start, surely being further back than his rider wanted. I liked the fact that he didn't pull hard as you might expect a sprinter to do and picked up ground in the closing stages despite having to be switched for a run. I'm now much less sure about my previous assertion that he's only a sprinter. He ran so fast when winning the Free Handicap I'm going to be interested in his chances next time even if he sticks to a mile.

MARS (28) picked up nicely in the closing stages. He only finished sixth by nine lengths, but the way the race was run makes me think this was a good performance by a horse that surely needs middle distances to show his best. He was awfully impressive when winning a Polytrack maiden last year, putting up a performance I rated as borderline Group class despite having plenty in reserve.



HOT SNAP NEEDS LONGER OR SOFTER

HOT SNAP (28-pace adjusted 33) looked a good thing for the 1000 Guineas on my ratings. I'd awarded her the biggest speed rating I've ever given to a three year old filly before May for her win in the Nell Gwyn. But she to beat nearly six lengths into sixth place.

It's pretty clear what happened. The ground was a lot faster than when she won the Nell Gwyn and the early pace a lot slower. As a result the final half mile was run in just 47.28 seconds compared with the 48.36 seconds of the Nell Gwyn. The three furlongs before the final furlong took just 34.47 seconds compared to the 35.52 seconds of the Nell Gwyn. This, the fastest section of the race, was where Hot Snap was really floundering. In the final furlong she was given a pretty easy time of things.

Hot Snap is a big, tall, long striding filly. She simply couldn't cope with the three furlong sprint up to the furlong marker on fast ground. Clearly she needs to go up in distance. She'd surely need much softer ground or at least a much stronger early pace to win again over a mile.

The Oaks is the obvious target for Hot Snap. Seeing how fast she ran on her previous start I have to say she deserves to be favourite for that race. The 20-1 the bookies are offering about her chances looks bonkers to me. Of course she may run elsewhere if her connections let very reasonable concerns about her being able to handle the gradients of Epsom dissuade them from running her there.

SKY LANTERN (34-pace adjusted 39) had finished second to Hot Snap in the Nell Gwyn and showed how good she is on fast ground by picking up strongly in the final furlong to score by half a length.

Sky Lantern has earned a string of big ratings from me. The only two times she has run below form coincided with her two races around a full turn. However the ground was too soft for her in the first of those defeats and she ran into traffic trouble in the second. So it's too early to say she's best suited by straight courses. As long as she gets the fast surface she needs I'd be wary of opposing her over a mile, and I can readily see her getting ten furlongs.

Runner up JUST THE JUDGE ((33-pace adjusted 38) looked the winner when she took the lead a furlong out but just got run out of it. She's quite a rangy, long striding sort and looks more of a middle distance horse than a miler to me. She'd obviously have a decent shot in the Irish 1000 Guineas but I'm going to be most interested in her when she gets the chance to go longer.

Third placed MOTH (32-pace adjusted 37) had produced an amazing burst of speed to win her previous start but had to wait till the three furlong sprint to the furlong pole slackened before she could start gaining ground seriously this time. A stronger early pace and slower ground would probably improve her chances in the Irish 1000 Guineas. She's a rather ungainly sort, so I think jockey Joseph O'Brien was right to suggest she'll do bests on a flatter track in future.

Fourth placed WINNING EXPRESS (32-pace adjusted 37) was travelling much the best from halfway until about a furlong and a half out. She surged forward to lead two furlongs out but clearly didn't last the final furlong despite the slow early gallop.

This will be the last time Winning Express goes a mile according to her trainer. But it looks like she does stay seven furlongs, judged by her decent third place finish to Hot Snap and Sky Lantern in the Nell Gwyn. So her connections tentative plan to shoot for the Jersey Stakes looks a good idea.

It's a shame there aren't any Group races for three year old fillies over seven furlongs or less for the rest of the season anywhere in Europe. In fact there aren't any three year old Group race sprints for colts or fillies from now on other than the Jersey Stakes.

It's tough for a three year old to beat its elders over sprint distances in Group company. But if she were mine I'd be giving some thought to the Prix Maurice de Gheest and Prix de la Foret. Three year old fillies have a decent record in those races.

SNOW QUEEN (32-pace adjusted 37) was not helped by being asked to gain ground into the sprint finish but did well to pick up nicely for a close fifth place. I don't like the fact she's only won two of her nine starts but perhaps she improved for the step up to a mile. This may explain why her two previous wins over sprint trips were on heavy going (i.e. she was in need of more of a stamina test).

Sixth placed MAUREEN ((32-pace adjusted 37) failed to get a clear run but picked up nicely at the finish. She does seem to hoover up all the traffic trouble that's going in a big field. However if one photo had gone her way she'd be unbeaten in four starts in fields of ten or less.



GREEN DOOR AND WINDFAST SMART TWO YEAR OLDS

GREEN DOOR (23-pace adjusted 37) was soon in the lead and picked up very strongly in the last three furlongs to win a red hot maiden juvenile race at Newmarket. The connections plan to go for the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes looks perfectly logical. In fact he looks the one to beat there on my ratings.

WINDFAST (21-pace adjusted 35) is a bigger, more muscular, classier looking sort than the winner. He's by the sprinter Exceed And Excel but has plenty of stamina on his dam's side (one of his siblings was Fair Question who won a 3m 6f Chase and the German St Leger).

When he was set down for his run Windfast ran green (understandable as it was his racecourse debut). He still picked up well though despite only being ridden out hands and heels. He looks a good prospect for the Coventry Stakes and will deserve to be long odds on to win a maiden next time out. I can readily see him developing into one of the top two year olds and staying a mile later on.



SOLE POWER ALMOST UNSTOPPABLE ON FIRM GROUND

SOLE POWER (44) came within a fifth of a second of Lochsong's long standing track record when producing a tremendous surge to win the Palace House Stakes.

It's obvious that Sole Power needs really fast ground to produce his best. And when he gets it he's almost unstoppable. In fact if one photo had gone his way he'd have won the last four times he's run five furlongs when the word 'firm' has appeared in the official going description.

One problem for Sole Power is that the big foreign tracks where he might otherwise win have efficient modern watering systems that they use to produce good or slower ground at pretty much every meeting. So if he is to win another Group 1 it will surely be in Britain. However it would be interesting to see him tackle a big foreign sprint on a synthetic surface or perhaps dirt. After all he's unbeaten in two tries over five furlongs on Polytrack.
 
BATTLE OF MARENGO IMPROVES

I was a little dismissive of BATTLE OF MARENGO (33-pace adjusted 39) after he won the Ballysax Stakes. But following his win in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial I can see what trainer Aidan O'Brien means about him only doing enough to win. Just four strides from the line he was 0.48 seconds ahead of the runner up, but as soon as Joseph O'Brien dropped his hands he eased himself up, cutting his margin to 0.32 seconds at the finish.

A lot of top class horses are lazy. And this is no bad thing. Those that push themselves hard every time take more out of themselves and often need longer breaks between their runs. Willie Mullins' smart hurdler Un De Sceaux is a good example of this.

The Derby Trial was a bit of a messy race as the early pace wasn't that strong. This created a near sprint finish - at least from three furlongs out to a furlong from home. Battle Of Marengo asserted during this part of the race but understandably had to be ridden along to do so. No horse looks great in these circumstances.

I could justify giving Battle Of Marengo a rating of 40 if I took into account how much more he would have won by if O'Brien had driven him out all the way to the finish. And there was a point in the race around a furlong and a half from the finish when it looked like he might win by around four lengths. But I prefer to rate a horse on what they did rather than what they might have done. And this run was good enough to make Battle Of Marengo O'Brien's number one Derby candidate in a year when he has won five of the six Derby Trials run so far.

Battle Of Marengo has now won five in a row and had an unbeaten Group 1 winner in second place here. The way he was a little stretched by the sprint from three furlongs out to the furlong pole but kept on finding diminishes my doubts about him getting longer. He ran exactly the way you'd expect a mile and a half horse to run over a mile and a quarter.

Runner up LOCH GARMAN (32-pace adjusted 38) is a good-bodied, well proportioned, classy looking sort. He seemed a little disorganised as he chased the winner up the homestraight. I'd bet on him improving for this run. Right now I'd say ten furlongs is his right distance.

Third placed LITTLE WHITE CLOUD (31-pace adjusted 37) kept on strongly all the way up the straight and looks more of a mile and a half horse.



LEADING LIGHT COULD WELL BE A ST LEGER CANDIDATE

Aidan O'Brien has so many good middle distance three year olds this season that the Derby could be restricted to his entrants and it would still produce a big field and be well up to standard.

Yet another smart three year old from the stable is LEADING LIGHT (38) who impressed me with his raw stamina when winning a good conditions race at Navan.

This strong, good-bodied colt made all the running but looked to be in trouble when his rivals closed in on him with two furlongs to run. But when ridden he produced a tremendous surge to storm clear of his rivals and score by seven lengths. He came home almost three seconds faster over the last three furlongs than they did in the handicap over the same distance.

Jockey Joseph O'Brien explained afterwards that Leading Light is a lazy horse. This no doubt explains why he was able to find so much under pressure.

Given his physique and the way he picked up so strongly I'm sure Leading Light will stay a mile and a half. Indeed I now have my eye on him as a St Leger candidate.



JUST AN EXERCISE GALLOP FOR CAMELOT

CAMELOT (19-pace adjusted 37) was not extended to win the Group 3 Mooresbridge Stakes. Indeed the race must have seemed like an exercise gallop to him as his pacemaker set a slow pace before he sprinted the last three furlongs. He came home from the end of the false rail about 3.25 furlongs out 3.2 seconds faster than they did in the handicap run over the same distance.

This run suggests Camelot retains his ability and turn of foot. It will be interesting to see what he does in the Tattersalls Gold Cup next time.

It's a pity the ground became too soft for PARISH HALL (18-pace adjusted 36) to produce his best. He couldn't quite get up for third, having got his tongue over the bit.

If the ground comes up fast for the Tattersalls Gold Cup Parish Hall should give the winner much more of a race. He's won three of the four times he's run on good or faster ground and finished second in the Futurity Stakes in his sole loss.

TAWHID GETS INTERESTING FOR JERSEY STAKES

PEACE AT LAST (37) pulled off a 29-1 surprise when winning the Mehl-Mulhens-Rennen (German 2000 Guineas) at Cologne.

Held up off the strong early gallop, Peace At Last came with a relentless run up the straight that carried him to the front inside the final furlong to win by over a length.

With only one win in seven previous starts (none of which were in Group company) the big odds of the winner weren't surprising. However I think there is an explanation for his relative lack of success earlier. It looks like he needs a long homestraight to unwind his finishing effort.

The homestraight at Cologne is 600 metres (three furlongs). He had only encountered a homestraight this long twice before beyond six furlongs. The first time was on his racecourse debut when he ran green while finishing third. The other time was when he ran away with a strongly run maiden race at Compiegne.

It could well be that the strong early pace Peace At Last has encountered in both his winning races is also a requirement for him.

The other horse I'd take out of the race is TAWHID (35) who moved well for a long way and looked the winner briefly when kicking on nearly a quarter of a mile from the finish.

Tawhid's jockey, Mikael Barzalona, felt he went for home too soon on his mount. But it looked to me like Tawhid simply didn't quite last the mile.

Tawhid did break his maiden over a mile. But he didn't seem to get home in the Craven and was caught when tiring late in another maiden the other time he went a mile. His big win came when he showed terrific pace to take the Horris Hill Stakes over seven furlongs. I'd like to see him cut back to that distance for the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. I'm not convinced he needs soft ground to produce his best. I reckon the cut back to seven furlongs would do the trick.

TABLE RONDE A SMART FILLY

TABLE RONDE (38) showed a very good turn of foot to win a strongly run Prix Volterra, a Listed race over a mile at Chantilly. She only needed to be nudged along with hands and heels to catch the leader then kick clear in the last half furlong or so.

To date Table Ronde has won all three of her starts. She is a fairly light framed, racy sort that looks built more for ten furlongs than a mile. Indeed her dam and pretty much everything on that side of her pedigree stayed a mile and a half.

Trainer Jean-Claude Rouget said after the race "She improves with each run. It is for horses like her, with a turn of foot like she has, that we do this job. I don’t regret not running her in the "Poule", as she was not yet ready to take on the best. You can’t rush horses. She didn’t run as a two-year-old as she had some small problems. She will run in the Prix de Sandringham if she comes out of this race well. She has not had a tough race but we do have to travel a lot to race in Paris. She is not tough enough for a race like the Coronation Stakes yet."

No doubt later on Table Ronde will be given the chance to run longer distances and step up to Group 1 company. Right now though I wouldn't want to oppose her in the Prix Sandringham even though it's only a mile.

I note with interest what Rouget says about being concerned about shipping Table Ronde a long way from her home base in the provinces. A lot of young fillies are poor travellers.



STYLE VENDOME DOES IT AGAIN

One major issue that needs addressing in horse-racing is the Anglo-Irish bias shown by the panel of handicappers who compile the World Thoroughbred Rankings and the Pattern Committee. Every year a disproportionate percentage of the racehorse population in Britain and Ireland are included in the World Thoroughbred Rankings which the Pattern Committee use as a guide. This isn't simply a source of irritation for fans in other racing nations. It can also have a major impact on British and Irish races.

This was shown last week by the Poule d'Essai des Poulains, a race we somewhat arrogantly refer to as 'the French 2000 Guineas'.

The Pattern Committee warned France Galop that it was thinking of downgrading the Poulains to a Group 2 contest in light of their low opinion of recent winners of the French Classic.

Italian horse racing has been devastated by a series of similar moves by the Pattern Committee which has stripped the country of many of their Group 1's. This has forced top Italian horses like Rakti, Falbrav, Gladiatorus and Electrocutionist to race overseas in recent years.

France Galop solved the problem by simply throwing money at it, bumping up the value of the Poulains to the point where it is now worth half as much again as the 2000 Guineas when you take account of the bonus French breds receive for winning it.

The result is that not a single French horse ran in this year's 2000 Guineas while the second biggest field to contest the Poulains since at least 1964 (as far back as I can trace) lined up at Longchamp.

This is a most unfortunate result. The meddling of the Pattern Committee has massively reduced the likelihood of any French colt running in the 2000 Guineas. Surely we need to encourage international competition in horse racing if we're ever going to pull the sport out of the downward financial trend it has been experiencing for so long in Britain and Ireland.

In any event STYLE VENDOME (40) won the race in good style while clocking a fast time, just as he had when winning the Prix Djebel a few weeks earlier. He was close up entering the straight, forged to the front inside the last furlong and always looked like holding on. His official margin of a neck looks closer to half a length in the photo finish print.

You can always find some evidence in any pedigree that suggests stamina. With Style Vendome it is the fact that his three parts brother Mirleft won over a mile and a half. However seeing that four of his five wins have been in sprints (one over just 5.5f) and that his sire and dam were both sprinters it seems unlikely that Style Vendome is going to stay more than a mile. His trainer Nicholas Clement says he will give some thought to the Prix du Jockey Club but is more likely to line up next in the St James's Palace Stakes. He should have a serious chance of stretching his winning run to six in that race.

Runner up DASTARHON (40) was rather readily outpaced by the winner in the last 75 yards and looks more of a ten furlong horse to me. Indeed his dam won a Group race over that distance and he himself only lost a nine and a half furlong contest in a photo on his debut. This being so it's surprising he is not entered in the Prix du Jockey Club.

Third placed INTELLO (40) was ten lengths behind in fourteenth place with three furlongs to run. He had to be angled out to find a run and took a couple of bumps in the process. However once he was in the clear and balanced with a furlong and a half left he gained so fast it looked like he'd been shot out of a cannon. His run fell short by only half a length.

It's obvious Intello needs to go back up in distance. So the Prix du Jockey Club looks the right target. He's such a racy, athletic sort I suspect the ten and a half furlongs of that race will be as far as he'll want to go. Trainer Andre Fabre echoed these sentiments but suggested they still might stretch him out to a mile and a half later if the horse looked like he'd get that far.

GALE FORCE TEN (39) picked up well to get beat under a length into fourth after getting briefly outpaced. The way he performed here off a searching early gallop suggests to me that he might just be able to get ten furlongs even though all six of his 2yo starts were over five or six. He's not entered in the St James's Palace Stakes, so I imagine his connections will be looking at the Prix Jean Prat next.

HAVANA GOLD (39) only had three behind him with three furlongs to run but gradually worked his way forwards until making a huge effort from a furlong and a half out. This saw him gain four lengths in just sixteen strides and briefly hit the front. But the effort told and he was fading quite quickly in the last 75 yards.

This run confirmed that Havana Gold can be competitive in Group 1 company. However it raised major doubts about his stamina. It now looks like a mile is his absolute maximum distance.

MORANDI (38) stayed on well to finish a close sixth, using his long stride to pick up seven lengths up the straight. This run shows he's definitely a middle distance horse and not a miler.

Back in eighth place we had GENGIS (37) who was nearly ten lengths behind with three furlongs left. He moved up very quickly to hit the front momentarily as they passed the furlong pole but then faded badly.

Gengis is a keen going sort who scored his final win at two last November over six furlongs. He's now tired quite badly in the closing stages of three runs over seven and eight furlongs. However he won a strongly run Prix de Fontainebleau over a mile. Perhaps he's best over a mile in a small field like he had there, which enables him to be held up for a sharp late burst. It's hard to say for sure.



FLOTILLA AND ESOTERIQUE ARE VERY SMART FILLIES

With a furlong to run in the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches Flotilla and Esoterique were merely upsides the leaders. But they were finishing to such effect that by the time they reached the line their advantage had expanded to four lengths.

FLOTILLA (40) had tracked the runner up throughout and finished just the strongest of the pair to win by a neck. The time she clocked was only nine hundredths of a second slower than the colts had gone in the Poulains.

There's no question that Flotilla is an unusually good winner of the French Classic. I rate her one of the top three year olds of either sex. She clearly appreciates a fast surface, having won the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf the only previous time she encountered such ground.

Judged on her physique, her pedigree and the way she finished so strongly at the end of a fast run mile suggests that Flotilla should stay the ten and a half furlongs of the Prix de Diane. I would be less sanguine about the mile and a half of the Vermeille and the Arc, but it certainly looks possible.

Runner up ESOTERIQUE (40) lost a couple of lengths at the start but looked set to win when she swept to the front. She was unlucky to come up against such a smart rival. She too is bred to get the longer distance of the Prix de Diane and has already won over nine and a quarter furlongs. However her pedigree and the pace she's shown suggests that the Diane trip is going to be her maximum.

If the re-match between these two fillies takes place in the Prix de Diane it will be one of the races of the season. It's hard to say whether it will be the brilliance of Esoterique or the stamina of Flotilla that will prevail.

It is worth noting that Henry Cecil's exceptional filly Hot Snap is also entered in the Prix de Diane. I rate her the only filly that would have a chance of beating the French duo.

Further back in the field TOPAZE BLACHE (32) had a dreadful time of things. She was caught very wide all the way through this twenty runner race. She just didn't have the pace to find her way to the rail and lost a lot of ground as a result. She's a big, strong, rangy sort that's built and bred for a mile and a half. When she gets the chance to run that far she could well prove top class based on her previous good form over inadequate distances.





TABLEAUX PULLS OFF RARE DOUBLE

With Coolmore winning all but one of the major Derby Trials run in Britain and Ireland so far it was almost inevitable that plans to run their French star TABLEAUX (30-pace adjusted 38) at Epsom have been shelved. However the Andre Fabre trained colt still kept his name in the news by pulling off a rare double to win the Prix Hocquart following his earlier success in the Prix Noialles - making it seven Derby Trial wins for Coolmore this season.

Seeing that he's a rangy, long striding sort that lacks acceleration, the slow early pace and sprint finish of the Prix Hocquart should have been all against Tableaux. But even with the last three furlongs being run in 11.59, 10.98 and 11.52 seconds Tableaux was able to grind his way into a narrow lead halfway up the straight and hang on in a head bobbing, three-way finish by a short head. As jockey Maxime Guyon said afterwards "He does not really have much pace but fights very hard. Today he has been extremely brave to win. "

Only seven horses have ever pulled off the Noialles-Hocquart double. Five of them went on to run in the Prix du Jockey Club and three won the big race (another ran second). However all those wins were achieved when the Prix du Jockey Club was run over a mile and a half.

There's little doubt that Tableaux is going to be best suited by a mile and a half. So it was good to hear that will be the distance of his next race according to trainer Andre Fabre. He said "Tableaux is a real trier, he's got a big heart. I think he'll be saved now for the Grand Prix de Paris, a mile and a half will suit him well."

In the long run the obvious target for Tableaux has to be the Arc. Indeed his program from now on pretty much writes itself - Grand Prix de Paris, Prix Niel and then the Arc.

Runner up PARK REEL (30-pace adjusted 38) is rather an odd character. He has a strange, lolloping, lazy, half stumbling stride that makes it look like he can barely be bothered to pick up his legs. He also has an unusual head carriage in that he often tilts his head to the side. And all through the four races I've watched him in so far his ears go all over the place.

In this race Park Reel made the running and started the sprint for home as soon as they turned into the straight. But it looked like he wasn't giving matters his full attention or applying himself to the task with as much dedication as the winner. So for the sixth time in his last seven starts he ended up running second.

Third placed FESTIVE CHEER (30-pace adjusted 38) was two lengths down when the sprint for home began but was steadily closing in on the first two through the final furlong, losing by two short heads. Jockey Joseph O'Brien noted that "he has pace" after his maiden win on Dundalk's Polytrack. That was borne out by the way he was able to gain a couple of lengths despite such a wild sprint finish.

Aidan O'Brien now has so many other horses to call on for the Derby that I imagine Festive Cheer will be taking up his entry in the Prix du Jockey Club rather than going to Epsom. But whichever Classic he ends up in I'd give him a real shot of at least placing.

The other horse I'd take from the race is the Aga Khan's ZAIDIYN (28-pace adjusted 36). This ultra long striding sort is a half brother to the staying hurdler Zaidpour so it's not surprising he had trouble coping with the sprint finish. But he still closed on the leaders steadily through the final furlong despite only being nudged along with hands and heels. He finished last but only by three lengths.

I would think the Prix du Jockey Club will be a bit too short for Zaidiyn. But he'd be rather interesting if he took up his entry in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. The stiff track and longer distance of that race would suit him. Later on he'll be an interesting prospect for the St Leger or more likely the Prix Chaudenay, a race the Aga Khan has won four times since 2
 
IT'S TIME TO STOP THE TRAFFIC

One of the most memorable experiences I've ever had in racing was watching races for the first time in Hong Kong. It was striking just how careful the jockeys were to avoid hampering other runners. If they needed to change direction they would first take a very careful look back over their shoulder to see if they were likely to cross or hamper another runner. Then, just before they made their move, they would often look back again. In most of the races there was so little interference it seemed as if the horses were running in lanes.

The contrast with the amount of traffic problems I was used to seeing in British races was amazing.

I concede that most British racecourses are laid out on natural terrain. So they feature gradients that can unbalance horses more than the expensive, purpose-built tracks in Hong Kong. I also accept that British trainers would see the involvement of official vets in their everyday activities as intrusive, especially when it comes to deciding whether a horse is sound or fit enough to run as is the case in Hong Kong. And I can understand that the penalties meted out for riding infractions in Hong Kong would be regarded as draconian by most British jockeys.

However something surely needs to be done to stop the increase in interference in the top British Group 1 contests like last Saturday's Eclipse Stakes. The stats suggest that the official policy of penalising jockeys rather than disqualifying horses adopted a few years ago just isn't working. You can see this from the following chart which shows the percentage of British Group 1 runners earning form book comments suggesting they were denied a clear run since 1996 (e.g. 'hampered', 'switched', 'not clear run', 'bumped' etc).

years............G1 runners...hampered

1996-2001...1562.............189 (12.10%)

2002-2007...1987.............332 (16.71%)

2008-2013....1871............267 (19.62%)

In the Eclipse Stakes the stewards decided that the winner had badly hampered the third and that the runner up had interfered with the fourth. But the only action they took was to hand out a five day suspension to the winning jockey.


You can argue that in individual cases like this the British stewards took the correct decision. But it's hard to argue against the idea that their continuing lax policy on interference has led to jockeys being less careful about causing traffic problems - and that this has created an environment where incidents like those that blighted the Eclipse Stakes are more likely.

In this case there's little doubt that the seemingly irresistible attraction of Sandown's running rail drew the first two towards it and contributed to them hampering the other placed horses. However in the case of the winner AL KAZEEM (42) it's a little worrying to note that he's shifted his ground in three of his last five races. He's a top heavy sort that was off for nearly a year with a fractured pelvis before this season. So I can understand the concerns expressed by his trainer Roger Charlton about this being his third successive start on fast ground. His preference of resting the horse till the Autumn when the ground should be softer sounds a smart plan.

Al Kazeem went by the front running Mukhadram quite decisively before he squashed him against the fence a furlong out. So I think it's fair to say that he would still have won in a cleanly run race. He's now won three Group 1's in a row and has shown himself to be game, consistent and versatile. In a year when the three year olds that normally win the Arc seem a weak group he should have a solid chance of taking Europe's top race.

Runner up DECLARATION OF WAR (40) picked up well despite hanging towards the rail in the closing stages. And I can see how you could argue he might just have got up for second anyway had third placed Mukhadram not been so badly hampered.

In any event this run proved that Declaration Of War stays ten furlongs well. I can see the logic of cutting him back to a mile for the Sussex Stakes as there don't seem to be many smart milers around. However if he were mine I'd then be shipping him over to America to tackle to nine furlong Woodward Stakes on dirt on the last day of Saratoga's big meeting.

I know I've banged on repeatedly about what a good idea it would be to run Declaration Of War on dirt and shoot for the Breeders' Cup Classic. But I think it's worth repeating. After all his trainer, Aidan O'Brien is clearly keen to win the big American race as he's now run a dozen of his best horses in it. However none of them had already won twice on surfaces that would be called dirt in America as Declaration Of War has, and none of them had pedigrees so strongly tilted towards dirt either.

Third placed MUKHADRAM (41) would surely have finished second but for being squashed badly against the rail by the winner which forced his jockey to snatch him up sharply. So I'm rating him as having run second by around a length and a half. His ability to kick from the front three furlongs out and get his rivals in trouble was evident once more here. Only the winner was able to go with him when he set sail for home.

If he can recover in time from what was his third hard race in just over five weeks it would surely be a smart plan to supplement Mukhadram for the Grosser Dallmayr Preis on July 28th. He'd be awfully hard to catch there around Munich's tight turns and would have a major chance of scoring his first Group 1 win. Back in 2011 Durban Thunder showed the edge a useful front runner can enjoy in that race.

Fourth placed MARS (39) was flat to the boards when Mukhadram kicked for home but then stayed on quite well despite the runner up cutting across him in the closing stages.

It obviously makes sense to step Mars back up to a mile and a half. However I'm a bit dubious of his prospects of winning this weekend's Grand Prix de Paris. The problem with that race is it's run at Longchamp where the downhill penultimate furlong pretty much guarantees a sprint finish however fast the early pace may be. Seeing that Mars has a habit of hitting a flat spot in the closing stages of his races I'd think a more testing track would be to his advantage. In other words the King George would make more sense despite the tougher opposition.

Triple Group 1 winner PASTORIUS (33) ran well below his best. I don't think this was due to being crowded by The Fugue in the early stages. I also don't believe he was still feeling the after effects of an abortive trip to Singapore where he suffered from the humidity. My impression was that was physically fine but that something about the nature of the track disagreed with him. I say this because after his jockey dropped his hands about a furlong and a half out he saw that The Fugue was coming back to him so chased Pastorius along briefly to pass her. From being two and a half lengths behind her he was quickly a length ahead and did not finish tired.

Seeing that he also ran below form at Ascot in the Champion Stakes my tentative explanation is that Pastorius dislikes prolonged and steep uphill finishes.

THE FUGUE (32) looked to be going okay at the back of the field most of the way but found absolutely nothing when set down for her run two furlongs out. She tired badly in the closing stages to finish stone last. In fact she got so tired she began rolling around a little and was eased.

The Fugue apparently blew for half an hour after the race and scoped dirty. So perhaps she can bounce back to win a second successive Nassau Stakes in four weeks. However I wouldn't want to bet on her doing that after finishing so tired. I'd prefer to see her rested for at least six weeks.



AFSARE HAS A REAL SHOT IN THE ARLINGTON MILLION

Rail movements at British and Irish tracks drive me crazy. They make straightforward comparisons of race times impossible and invalidate the idea of assessing times against a standard based on past races run over the same course. The truth is that thanks to rail movements in Britain and Ireland every course is a new course every day, so setting standards based on past times is folly - unless you're dealing with races run on a straight course. Due to rail movements races vary from the advertised distance by an unknown amount.

For decades every other country on the planet has been moving the start backwards or forwards when the rails are moved to ensure the advertised distance is run. The only reason this isn't done in Britain and Ireland as far as I can see is sheer laziness.

I indulge in this rant because I think it would have been really nice to be able to directly compare the times of the Gala and Eclipse Stakes which were both run over ten furlongs at Sandown last week. This was made impossible by a false rail in the middle half mile of the Gala Stakes which forced the horses to race far away from the inner rail the Eclipse Stakes runners were able to run around the next day.

By playing around for about an hour with the Turftrax sectional times and counting the number of strides horses took in the middle half mile I was able to conclude that the Gala Stakes winner MANDOUR (40) would have finished about two and a half lengths behind the Eclipse winner Al Kazeem if they'd run in the same race. If the races had been run over the same distance I'd have simply been able to glance at their times to know this.

Mandour takes a while to get rolling, as he showed last time when third in the Prix d'Ispahan. But he finishes really strongly once in full stride. He certainly did that on this occasion when running down the smart Afsare to win by almost a length.

Physically Mandour is rather reminiscent of his dam Mandesha. She was a medium-sized, very angular filly who had a similar turn of foot.

I was never sure that Mandesha really stayed a mile and a half until she went and won the Vermeille over that distance. That fact plus the way Mandour runs on so well tells me he should get 12 furlongs as well.

Most likely Mandour needs a pretty long homestraight to unwind his finishing effort. So unless he proves good enough to take the Arc (which I'm a little doubtful of at this stage) then his best chances of winning a Group 1 lie in the Canadian International or the Gran Premio del Jockey Club. With Italian racing still being in a mess and prize money payment uncertain it looks like the Canadian race is the most logical end of season target for Mandour.

When a horse has run as consistently as Mandour there's always a chance they'll be able to improve. I say this because a horse cannot meet optimal circumstances all the time. So one that's shown the same level of form several times in a row as Mandour has most likely met unfavourable circumstances on one of those occasions.

If Mandour is going to improve the very small amount needed to take a Group 1 my bet is it will be over a mile and a half, or perhaps on soft ground.

Runner up AFSARE (39) looked certain to win when cruising into the lead over a quarter of a mile from the finish. But he couldn't quite hold off the winner.

The thing with Afsare is that he is a ten furlong specialist that always seems to need his first two runs of the season (this was only his second following a ten month break). His form figures over ten furlongs after his first two starts of the season reads 11122. One of his second place finishes was in the Arlington Million to subsequent Breeders' Cup Turf winner Little Mike. The other was by a neck to multiple Group 1 placed Sri Putra.

Afsare is essentially one of those increasingly common UK performers that is targeted mainly at valuable foreign races. His UK runs are usually just preps. He's run in four different countries in his last seven starts. He was due to run in a fifth country before being withdrawn from the Cox Plate in Australia with a fetlock injury.

With this second run of the season under his belt Afsare should be able to hit the Arlington Million in peak form next time out. Last year Little Mike only beat him a length and a quarter. This year Little Mike won't be running so Afsare's chance of going better looks pretty big - unless wet weather arrives.

EXCESS KNOWLEDGE (39) ran a tremendous race for a three year old to chase home the two Group 1 placed older horses. He stayed on relentlessly all the way up the homestraight and looks to be crying out for a step up to a mile and a half.

As I write this Excess Knowledge is still entered in the Grand Prix de Paris over a mile and a half. If he took up his entry there I would not dismiss his chance slightly. Most likely the French race will come too soon and he will instead be running in the Great Voltigeur, the other race he holds an entry for. I'd be wary of opposing him at York on what I saw here.

Fourth placed DAVID LIVINGSTON (39) also stayed on really well and surely needs to go back up to a mile and a half. He’s by Galileo out of a half sister to High Chaparral, so his pedigree says the same thing.

This is not the first time David Livingston has shown real stamina. When he beat subsequent Group 1 winner Akeed Mofeed in the Beresford Stakes at two he set a pace that was rather too strong for the bottomless ground and then kept on gamely to score as he and everything else tired through the last three furlongs. In fact he ran 1m 3.7 seconds for the first five furlongs (12.7 seconds a furlong) and backed up to clock 42.5 seconds (14.1 seconds a furlong) for the last three furlongs. You rarely see a horse finish that slowly and still win outside of national hunt racing.

It seems clear that Mike de Kock has been able to revive the form of yet another Coolmore cast off in David Livingston. My suspicion is that he does so well with them because he selects those that lack acceleration. His training methods seem to inject a bit more pace into a horse, so he can turn around the form of a smart but one-paced horse.

No doubt we'll be seeing David Livingston at Meydan's next Spring. Meanwhile he'd be a slam dunk to win a normal Listed or Group 3 race in which he wasn't facing Group 1 horses as he was here.

Fifth placed VAN DER NEER (38) was in third till quite rapidly caught and passed by the third and fourth in the last 100 yards. My impression was that the uphill finish prevented him from showing the smart turn of foot that's been evident in his previous winning efforts.

In this regard it's interesting to note that on tracks without a steep uphill finish Van Der Neer has won three times out of four and run second in the Racing Post Trophy. This being so I'd expect to see improvement from Van Der Neer if he takes up his entries in the Meld Stakes or the Juddmonte International, both run on dead flat tracks.





HILLSTAR ONE OF THE TOP 3YO'S

HILLSTAR (40) improved significantly for the step up to a mile and a half to win a very good renewal of the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. He was pushed along from three furlongs out but kept on finding to come from second last place and pass horse after horse. He then ran down Battle Of Marengo in the final furlong in a tremendous display of raw stamina and class.

The obvious target for Hillstar now is the St Leger. After all he showed serious stamina here. In addition horses that finished close up in the King Edward VII Stakes have a tremendous record in the final Classic.

Since 1996 there have been eight renewals of the St Leger contested by one or more horses that reached the first four in the King Edward VII Stakes less than four lengths behind the winner. Eight times out of twelve the St Leger fell to such horses from a total of nineteen runners. This being so the 16-1 offered by the bookies against Hillstar taking the St Leger looks awfully generous.

Runner up BATTLE OF MARENGO (39) kicked clear but looked rather one paced. He just bobbed up and down on the same spot as the winner reeled him in.

Battle Of Marengo is rather too leggy to produce a serious turn of foot. And it's interesting to note that he's won all three Group races he's contested on yielding or softer ground but been made to look one paced both times he run in Group races on a faster surface. It could well be he needs cut in the ground to offset his lack of acceleration.

Third placed MUTASHADED (38) stayed on really well and looks another solid St Leger candidate. He hit a flat spot then began to gain again and was moving nicely at the finish. He didn't seem as organised as the winner and therefore should be able to improve on this. 16-1 about him for the St Leger is also very tempting.



GALE FORCE TEN NEARLY BLOWS IT

GALE FORCE TEN (39) kicked clear in the Jersey Stakes then idled and got headed before rallying to lead again late. My feeling is that he'd have won by a couple of lengths but for this.

If I'm right (and his trainer and jockey share my read of the race) then Gale Force Ten might well have clocked a Group 1 class time if he'd had more company.

Gale Force Ten clearly stays a mile well. And I still think he might just get ten furlongs. But he clearly has masses of pace, He showed that in this race and when clocking a blisteringly fast 21.86 seconds for the final quarter mile at Dundalk in April.

It makes sense to try Gale Force Ten in Group 1 company over six furlongs in the July Cup. He'd also be interesting in the Prix Maurice de Gheest over half a furlong more three weeks later. Most likely he's best on a fast surface.

Runner up MONTRIDGE (39) ran a big race. He's a heavy topped horse according to his trainer and therefore appreciates cut in the ground which he didn't have here. I don't think he'd be quite good enough to beat Style Vendome in the Prix Jean Prat, but if it rained I'd start to get interested. Most likely the best ting to do would be to rest him till the Autumn when he'll get his ground more often.

Third placed TAWHID (37) wandered across the track to race in isolation late which cannot have helped him. His trainer is convinced he's better on softer ground.

Last time out Tawhid got soft ground but didn't seem to quite last the mile when third in the German Guineas. It looks like he appreciated the cut back to seven furlongs here. He was awfully impressive when running away with the Horris Hill Stakes over seven furlongs last season. His long term target just has to be the Prix de la Foret, Europe's top seven furlong race and a contest often run on soft ground.



REMOTE LOOKS CLASSY

I liked the way REMOTE (39) sustained a big move all the way up the homestraight to run down the leaders and win the Group 3 Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot. He's a good-bodied, muscular, classy looking sort that might just be able to improve the couple of lengths a mile required to be competitive in Group 1 company.

Given Remote's physique and pedigree I'd say John Gosden is right to assert that he won't stay beyond the ten furlongs he won over at Royal Ascot. I also think he wouldn't do too well cutting back to a mile. This somewhat limits his immediate options. There's next month's Group 2 Prix Eugene Adam in France followed by the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d'Ornano in August or the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes in America around the same time.

Runner up SHIKARPOUR (38) followed Remote as he moved through the field and slowly gained half a length on him but never looked likely to get past. He has the same obvious targets as the winner. The one I would opt for is the Secretariat Stakes as he looks more likely to adapt to Arlington's tight turns and the likely sprint finish than the winner.

In this regard it is interesting to note that Shikarpour's trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre would have won with three Secretariat Stakes runners out of three if the photo had gone Ziyarid's way in 2011 and Shamdinan hadn't transferred out of his yard just before winning the race in 2007.

VAN DER NEER (38) was just outrun by the first two in the closing stages. But this was his best ever run. It looks clear that he improved for the step up to ten furlongs, but he’s such a pacey sort I wouldn't want to bet on him staying further. Indeed I see he's entered in the nine furlong Meld Stakes next month at Leopardstown. That would be a decent target for him.

Fourth placed SECRET NUMBER (37) stayed on really well and looked to be crying out for a step up to a mile and a half. This Godolphin colt's only future entries are in the Grand Prix de Paris and the Arc so his connections are clearly thinking along the same lines. I'd like to see him tackle the Grand Prix de Paris next. He probably won't be good enough but his performance should provide a clear guide for future plans.





PACE AFFECTED THE PRINCE OF WALES

It is tricky to produce speed ratings when only a single race is run on a particular course. That was the case this year when the Prince Of Wales Stakes was the only race around a turn on the second day of Royal Ascot.

However it is clear from the Turftrax sectional times that although the final time was fast in the Prince Of Wales the early pace was not - thanks to the Coolmore pacemaker Windsor Palace being slowly away and not getting to the front.

The final two and a half furlongs at Royal Ascot is shared by the round and the straight course. And if you compare the final three furlongs of all the races on the second day you'll find that in the Prince Of Wales they went a good deal faster for the last three furlongs than in any other race - even the three furlong shorter Jersey Stakes.

The last three furlongs at Ascot rises ten yards which adds around 1.5 seconds to this part of the race.

In top class French middle distance races with sprint finishes you'll sometimes see some horses run the last three furlongs in 34 seconds or less. At Ascot that would equal 35.5 seconds or less for the last three furlongs. You can see from the Turftrax sectional times that several of the Prince Of Wales runners finished this fast:

The Fugue.........34.78

Al Kazeem.........34.97

Camelot.............35.32

Maxios...............35.44

Mukhadram........35.73

Miblish...............35.91

Afsare.................36.36

Side Glance.........36.51

Saint Baudolino...36.63

Red Cadeaux........36.7

Windsor Palace.....41.8

The problem with sprint finishes is that it's very hard for a horse to gain ground. If a horse is six lengths behind when the sprint begins it may be able to claw back a length or two but not the entire six lengths because it cannot go faster than a horse is physically capable of running - any more than a family car can go much faster than 120 miles and hour.

This being so I have to say AL KAZEEM (42) enjoyed an enormous advantage by being closest of the fancied runners to the rather ordinary gallop set by the runner up Mukhadram. This advantage was amplified when his jockey, James Doyle, shrewdly asked his mount to close the gap on Mukhadram before his rivals.

That said, Al Kazeem clocked a proper Group 1 time, demonstrating the ability only top class horses have of running a fast time off a slow pace.

If he hadn't gotten into all sorts of trouble on his three year old debut and three times run second to horses that put up Group 1 class performances Al Kazeem might well have won his last ten starts. He has improved with each year that he's raced and is clearly one of the best middle distance horses in Europe.

One of the big pluses for Al Kazeem is that this race and his last one, demonstrated that he has the ability to win Group 1 races off an ordinary early gallop. His ultimate target is the Arc de Triomphe, a race which often features a sprint finish. Meanwhile he looks a big player in the King George.

Runner up MUKHADRAM (42) is clearly tough to beat when he's handed a soft early lead. He showed this on his previous start in the Brigadier Gerard when quickening up for three furlongs to get his rivals in trouble before tiring in the final furlong. He did exactly the same thing here and very nearly held on.

It looks clear that ten furlongs is Mukhadram's maximum. He tired late, just like on this occasion and last time out, when fourth over ten furlongs at Royal Ascot last year and was cut back in distance for his next two starts.

It makes sense to take up Mukhadram's entry in the Eclipse Stakes as Sandown is a track that favours front runners. The concern is that Aidan O'Brien will surely adopt his highly successful policy of employing two front runners to ensure a strong pace for his entrants, several of which are mile and a half performers. This will have the added benefit of putting Mukhadram under pressure early.

However I don't think Mukhadram is a one dimensional front runner. The way he can accelerate in the three furlongs before the final one tells me could still run big if he's headed early and his run is simply delayed by a furlong.

Third placed THE FUGUE (39) finished fastest of all. She clearly retains her ability including the terrific acceleration that makes her so hard to beat. There's little doubt that she wasn't fully fit for this. She's going to be the one to beat in all the big fillies races around ten furlongs from now on, starting with the Nassau Stakes.

I would not give up on fourth placed CAMELOT (39). As I see it this run simply confirms that he needs a greater test of stamina. It could be that he will get the stamina test he needs if he's equipped with a couple of pacemakers in the Eclipse. More likely the mile and a half of the King George will be required.

Further back in the field RED CADEAUX (30) demonstrated that firm ground is no good to him especially over a distance this short.

The high class SAINT BAUDOLINO (29) was allowed to coast along in last place, perhaps because his jockey was seeking cover due to his mount throwing his head around when pulling against the slow early pace. The move proved a disaster as Saint Baudolino turned into the homestraight far behind. He quickly passed two horses but then couldn't gain further as the finishing sprint began in earnest. His jockey allowed him to come home in his own time in the last furlong.

I'd be looking for major improvement from Saint Baudolino next time, especially if he steps up to a mile and a half for the Princess Of Wales Stakes or the King George. He was probably the top three year old in France last year......
 
DECLARATION OF WAR WILL BE HARD TO BEAT

DECLARATION OF WAR (37-pace adjusted 41) won the Queen Anne Stakes in good style. Held up, he was always moving well but jockey Joseph O'Brien eventually had to force his way through a furlong out since a gap wasn't going to open. In doing so he was leaned on by the tiring Libranno and turned sideways for several strides as he tried to get past.

Once in the clear Declaration Of War kicked away to steadily open up an advatnage of three quarters of a length. He was given three cracks of the whip to make him pick up but he was visibly full of run crossing the line.

It now seems clear that Declaration Of War has needed his two seasonal debuts in Ireland. He has won his other six starts.

The two questions now up for debate are how much further Declaration could have won by with a clear run and whether the truly stays ten furlongs.

My thinking on the first issue is that Declaration Of War would have won by about two lengths if a gap had appeared. On the latter I still reckon Declaration Of War is just as good over ten furlongs.

I can see how could debate the issue of Declaration Of War's stamina. His sire was a top class dirt sprinter. And his dam's three wins (also on dirt) were over seven to eight and a half furlongs.

You could also argue away Declaration Of War's two wins over longer distances. When he won over ten furlongs on heavy ground at the Curragh the early pace was slow. He averaged 14.9 seconds for the first seven furlongs and 12.4 seconds for the last three. When he won over 1m 2f and 150 yards on Dundalk's Polytrack. He averaged 12.8 seconds a furlong up to three furlongs out before sprinting the last three furlongs in 33.6 seconds.

The thing is a horse doesn't win over ten furlongs in heavy ground or over nearly eleven furlongs on Polytrack without staying ten furlongs. In addition it's worth pointing out that three of Declaration Of War's five siblings have won over ten furlongs. These include his full brother War Correspondent who won a ten furlong race at Salon-de-Provence fifteen days before Royal Ascot in which the commentator twice referred to the strong gallop being set.

However I must concede from a strategic standpoint that it may well be easier to establish Declaration Of War as champion miler of Europe due to the rather weak looking opposition over eight furlongs. On the other hand there appear to be a lot of smart ten furlong performers around.

That said, a decision surely has to be made about whether to restrict Declaration Of War's upcoming races in an effort to keep him fresh enough for an assault on the Breeders' Cup Classic over ten furlongs.

In the past there has always been a question about whether the top European challengers for America's most valuable race could act on the dirt surface. With Declaration of War there is no such question. He has won on the sand surface at Pornichet and the Fibresand at Deauville which have basically the same physical properties as dirt. In addition the tight turns at Santa Anita will present him with no problems seeing that Pornichet's sand oval is just 1145 metres (less than six furlongs) in circumference.

I can see how you could argue that a horse cannot have the kind of speed acceleration Declaration Of War has shown and win a top race over ten furlongs on dirt - a surface that nullifies the advantage of horses with smart acceleration due to its slippery nature. But as I see it, the experiment just has to be tried. The horse is unbeaten on three different AW surfaces and in two tries over ten furlongs plus.

Runner up ALJAMAHEER (36 - pace adjusted 40) clearly didn't act on soft ground at Newbury. But he has won or been beaten under a length in six of his other seven starts and also finished a decent third in another Group 1. Normally I'd say he's not quite good enough to win a Group 1 but, as I've mentioned, there don't appear to be many smart milers around. So a top level win is not impossible if he's placed cleverly.

Third placed GABRIAL (36 - pace adjusted 40) was done for a turn of foot by the winner but still ran close and has now placed all three times he's run a mile in Group 1 company. If he encounters the softer ground he prefers he'd be very interesting in one of the top mile races.



DAWN APPROACH BOUNCES BACK

The St James's Palace Stakes won by DAWN APPROACH (39) was awfully messy. The winner and runner up Toronado received hefty bumps thanks to Glory Awaits swerving across the track in the closing stages. But they pulled clear to fight out the finish.

You have to admire the way Dawn Approach rallied to hold off Toronado. Clearly I was wrong to doubt him. He's back to the form which saw him become champion 2yo last year.

Dawn Approach will need to run a bit faster to win another Group 1. But the bump probably cost him two or three lengths here and he was earning ratings as big as 40 from me as a two year old. So there has to be a fair chance he'll be up to beating Farrh, Declaration Of War and whatever other threats emerge in the top mile races.

It was hard not to notice what a huge stride runner up TORONADO (39) has. He used it to get upsides the winner and very nearly prevail.

Toronado is so big and has such a long stride he wouldn't look out of place in a three mile steeplechase. Indeed his half brother Wan has won two steeplechases, including a 2m 5f Grade 3 Italian event in January.

Wan is by sprint sire Tagula. Toronado is by High Chapparal. So it's hard to argue that Toronado isn't bred to stay a good deal more than a mile. His big stride, his physique, his pedigree and the way he stayed on so strongly here all suggest he'd benefit from a step up in distance.

I recognise that Toronado's trainer Richard Hannon rarely runs his better horses beyond a mile and that he hasn't won a Group 1 race over further in twenty years. But he had hime entered up in the Prix Noailles and Prix du Jockey Club over ten and a half furlongs and Toronado is still in the Grand Prix de Paris over a mile and a half as well as the Eclipse. So Hannon has clearly been thinking about going loner with the horse.

Hannon says Toronado will now be rested. When he comes back I hope he's given a chance to run in a longer race.

Third placed MARS (36) met plenty of trouble in running and did well to finish strongly into third over a clearly inadequate distance. He's run one big race after another this season and will surely win something decent when stepped back up in distance.

Fourth placed MSHAWISH (35) was moving really well rounding the home turn ad dropped to 6-4 in running. But, as was the case in the Prix du Jockey Club and his second last start, he just bobbed up and down in the same spot and failed to pick up in the way that looked likely.

Earlier this season Mshawish looked something special at Saint-Cloud when earning a rating of 39 from me. That was on very soft ground. His three other outings have been on good or faster ground or on Polytrack and he's been chopped for speed in all of them. He's almost certainly one of the top three year olds but it does seem likely he needs soft ground to produce his best.



WAR COMMAND IS TOP CLASS

The way that WAR COMMAND (38) lengthened away from his fourteen rivals to take the Coventry Stakes by six lengths was most impressive. He's already shown that he stays longer so is an obvious candidate for all the big 2yo races from now on.

Normally you don't see a juvenile as fast as War Command till the last few months of the season. So it makes sense to take advantage of his dominance right now and shoot for Group 1 wins as early as possible in the Heinz and Prix Morny.



MOMENT IN TIME MAY PREFER GOING LEFT HANDED

MOMENT IN TIME (35-pace adjusted 38) did really well to run down a smart German raider that had been given a soft lead when taking the Group 3 Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock.

It's hard not to notice that Moment In Time has done best on left handed tracks. In fact she's won four of the six times she's run left handed and finished a close second in her two losses. On straight or right handed tracks she's only reached the first three once in five tires, and that was when she ran third in a five runner contest.

Moment In Time's trainer suggested she might well be raiding American races in future. All US tracks are left handed, so that may be a good idea. The trouble will be finding races that are long enough for the filly over there.

Runner up NYMPHEA (35-pace adjusted 38) looked to have done enough to win until the winner staged a strong late run. She's clearly useful and ran second in the Group 1 Preis der Diana (German Oaks) last year. Her rangy physique suggests that she's probably suited to the bigger, more galloping courses available outside Germany, so I'd expect to see her in more UK or French races.



ECLIPSE MAYBE A MORE LIKELY TARGET THAN IRISH DERBY FOR RULER OF THE WORLD

In recent years it has become common for the early stages of the Derby to be slowly run. That was certainly the case this year in a renewal won by RULER OF THE WORLD (35-pace adjusted 40).

Ruler Of The World is a remarkably tractable horse. I can recall being amazed by how relaxed he was when drawn really wide on his racecourse debut. He didn't pull like so many inexperienced horses do when seeing plenty of daylight. He allowed himself to be manouvered in a very relaxed way closer to the running rail.

It was the same story in the Derby. Ruler Of the World had no problem holding his line around the tight turns. He just ran exactly where and how his jockey asked. True he did roll down the counter camber when delivering his run up the straight. But most horses do that at Epsom when coming down the wide outside.

It's very hard to say just how good Ruler Of The World is at this stage. He won the Derby clearly by nearly two lengths and is still unbeaten.

My one concern at this stage is that Ruler Of The World's two big race wins have been at Chester and Epsom, two of the tightest courses in Europe. As a medium sized, rather nippy sort he handles tight turns really well. So I just wonder whether he'll be able to show the same form on a big, galloping course.

This question of immediate interest because Ruler Of The World's next race could well be the Irish Derby.

On the face of it this looks a smart idea when you look at the statistics for Derby winners running in the Irish Derby.

Since the Irish Derby's prize money was boosted massively in 1962 it has been contested by a total of 25 Epsom Derby winners. Fifteen of the 25 pulled off the Derby double, as you can see from their results below;

1962...Larkspur.........................................fourth

1964...Santa Claus....................................WON

1966...Charlettown...................................second

1968...Sir Ivor..........................................second

1969...Blakeney.......................................fourth

1970...Nijinsky........................................WON

1972...Roberto..........................................twelfth

1975...Grundy..........................................WON

1976...Empery.........................................second

1977...The Minstrel................................WON

1978...Shirley Heights............................WON

1979...Troy.............................................WON

1981...Shergar........................................WON

1983...Teenoso.......................................third

1986...Shahrastani..................................WON

1988...Kahyasi.......................................WON

1990...Quest For Fame..........................fifth

1991...Generous.....................................WON

1992...Dr Devious.................................second

1993...Commander in Chief..................WON

2000...Sinndar.......................................WON

2001...Galileo........................................WON

2002...High Chaparral............................WON

2004...North Light..................................second

2012...Camelot.......................................WON

These stats suggest Ruler Of The World has a 60% chance of following up his Epsom success with another Derby win at the Curragh. But I still wonder whether he will handle a big galloping track like the Curragh as well as Epsom.

It's also worth bearing in mind that although seven of the last ten Irish Derby winners ran at Epsom only one of them actually won the British race.

In addition I rather wonder whether Ruler Of The World will run in the Irish Derby. Seeing that he's by Galileo and has scored both big Group wins over a mile and a half I would have thought it necessary for him to target a big ten furlong race to secure his stud value. Five of the last seven Derby winners that ran again contested a ten furlong race on their very next start following the Derby. You wouldn't normally see such a dramatic cut back in distance with such frequency. It was surely only done with an eye on stud value. This being so I would not be at all surprised to see Ruler Of The World make his next start in the Eclipse rather than the Irish Derby.



The Eclipse is a pretty decent target for a horse that can handle tight turns. I say this because although Sandown is widely regarded as a galloping track the apex of the turn has been tight enough to unbalance many horses in the past - causing quite a few to actually slip up and fall when the surface has been wet.

Runner up LIBERTARIAN (34-pace adjusted 39) repeated his Dante performance in coming from far back to run on strongly in the closing stages. He is a really long striding sort that should appreciate the easier contours of the Curragh. He will surely also appreciate a longer distance and may just lack the push button acceleration need to win a Group 1 race over a middle distance.

Third placed GALILEO ROCK (34-pace adjusted 39) also has a very long stride. He was about a length and a half behind the leader all the way up the homestraight and looked one paced as those around him made progress. He's a three parts brother to the high class stayer Saddler's Rock. Most likely he needs longer than a mile and a half to show his best.

Fourth home in a bunch finish for the placings was BATTLE OF MARENGO (34-pace adjusted 39). He made much of the running before being cut down by the faster finishing winner and runner up. He clearly doesn't have tremendous acceleration. However I think he will probably prefer the more galloping track at the Curragh, so the Irish Derby is an obvious target for him. I'd not be keen on him cutting back in distance for the Eclipse or being asked to tackle the Grand Prix de Paris where acceleration is usually a deciding factor.

French raider OCOVANGO (34-pace adjusted 39) was repeatedly bumped and blocked in the closing stages but was beginning to pick up well when finally balanced after the rough passage towards the finish. Judged by trainer Andre Fabre's comments we won't be seeing him until Arc Trial day at Longchamp in September when he will be tackling the Prix Niel en route to the Arc.

The fact that Ocovango will be skipping the Grand Prix de Paris, most likely along with Intello makes me suspect that Fabre must be awfully keen on the prospects of their stablemate Tableaux winning the race.

Libertarian did sixth placed MARS (33-pace adjusted 38) no favours at all due to hanging in all the way up the straight. He bumped Mars pretty heavily three furlongs out, knocked Festive Cheer into him two furlongs out then swerved across him between there and a furlong out. All the while poor Richard Hughes was desperately trying to find an opening for Mars but was continually denied due to Libertarian's antics. When he finally got in the clear and balanced approaching the furlong marker he unwound a strong finishing effort to lose by just over three and a half lengths.

None of this was really Libertarian's fault. It was simply due to Epsom's notorious counter camber which causes so many horses to get unbalanced and roll down towards the running rail. My thinking is that on a normal type of track Mars would have gone close to winning - especially when you take into account the fact he was asked to come from last in a race which featured a sprint finish.

The question now is where does Mars go from here. Given the way he stayed on so well it looks logical to keep him to twelve furlongs. This makes the three obvious choices the Grand Prix de Paris, the Irish Derby and the King George. It's a tough choice. But seeing what a good target the Irish Derby is for Battle Of Marengo (and arguably Ruler Of The World) I'd be inclined to favour one of the other two races. And seeing how the King George is likely to attract some seriously fast older horses I'd be shooting for the French race.

Watching the video I noted that Jamie Spencer on German raider CHOPIN (33-pace adjusted 38) stopped riding him for the last 14 strides (about 120 yards). So I wasn't surprised to read the stewards asked him for an explanation. He said he'd stopped riding because the horse was short of room. My impression was that he may also have begun to run out of stamina.

Chopin is a racy, athletic looking horse that hadn't previously run beyond eight and a half furlongs. He'd shown tremendous acceleration in his earlier starts in Germany. If he comes back to England for the Eclipse Stakes over ten furlongs I'd be interested in his chances.

The hot favourite DAWN APPROACH (13-pace adjusted 20) pulled so hard early on that he was fly jumping. Kevin Manning had little choice but to allow him to stride on into an early lead. He soon ran out of stamina after turning in and finished last by 33 lengths.

It's tempting to say Dawn Approach failed to stay and just draw a line through this run seeing that he had previously won six out of six, including three Group 1's. The trouble is he clocked a really slow time winning the 2000 Guineas and the form of the race has worked out badly. Of the eight 2000 Guineas contestants to have run subsequently just one has reached the first three, and that was a weak third place finish in a moderate maiden race. If he were mine I'd be strongly inclined to retire Dawn Approach right now to protect his stud value. Further racing seems unlikely to add to his reputation.



GLOBETROTTING ST NICHOLAS ABBEY DESERVES MORE RESPECT

Globetrotters like ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (39-pace adjusted 43) don't seem to get the respect they deserve in Britain and Ireland. This, plus the fact that the race took place on Derby day, took the spotlight away from the horse's third successive win in the Coronation Cup.

St Nicholas Abbey kicked on a long way out and sustained a strong finishing burst all the way to the line off a rather ordinary early pace.

It does seem pretty clear now that St Nicholas Abbey needs a fast surface to produce his trademark acceleration. It also looks likely that he's better over a mile and a half than a mile and a quarter. However I can see how it would be very helpful to his stud value to gain another top level win over less than 12 furlongs to add to his 2yo success in the Racing Post Trophy. So I'm not too surprised three of his four future entries are in mile and a quarter contests.

The ten furlong race where I'd give St Nicholas Abbey the biggest chance is the Prince Of Wales' Stakes at Royal Ascot. My bet is Snow Fairy will need the run in that race if she lines up. That leaves only Farrh, Maxios and perhaps Al Kazeem as serious rivals. The connections of Maxios are talking about keeping him fresh for later targets and I'm not convinced Al Kazeem has the acceleration to beat St Nicholas Abbey even over ten furlongs. So that means he only may only have to get by old rival Farrh to win his first Group 1 over ten furlongs. If he does then I'd like to see him kept fresher for a third assault on the Breeders' Cup Turf than he was last year.

DUNADEN (37-pace adjusted 41) just couldn't cope with the pace of the winner in a near sprint finish. It does look like he needs the stronger early pace big fields tend to generate. He has won five of the eight times he's run in pattern races with more than a dozen runners but only one time out of twelve in smaller fields.

The big plan now for Dunaden is the Arc by way of the Prix Foy. I wouldn't discount his chances of winning the big race. After all, if two short head photos had gone his way Dunaden would have won all four times he's run a mile and a half or more at Longchamp. In his only start over a shorter distance at Longchamp he ran a close third in a very good renewal of the Group 1 Prix Ganay, where he was picking up really strongly at the finish.

THISTLE BIRD HARD TO BEAT AROUND A TURN

THISTLE BIRD (38) seems to pull too hard to last home on a straight course or over distances longer than eight and a half furlongs. But if one photo in a Group 2 against colts had gone her way she would have won all seven times she's run around a turn on turf at trips short of nine furlongs.

Her latest success came in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes on Oaks day at Epsom. She picked up strongly off a good gallop to win by nearly a length.

The plan now is apparently to run Thistle Bird once more up the straight at Royal Ascot. Her trainer also suggests she may be stepped up again to longer distances later on. Neither option seems a good idea judged on her record. My ratings suggests that around a turn she'd have a real shot of winning a Group 1 against fillies over a mile.



CLOCK SAYS OAKS WAS A VERY WEAK RACE

I would be wary of betting any horse that ran in the Oaks as there's just now way I can find to suggest the winner TALENT (34) put up anything close to a Group 1 class performance. Even being over-generous with interpreting the sectional and final times produces a rating below pattern class for the winner.

I concede that Talent ran away with the race despite meeting traffic trouble. Perhaps she'll prove capable of winning again at the top level. But there's surely got to be something better running in the Irish Oaks.

DISCLAIMER NOT NECESSARY FOR THIS WIN

DISCLAIMER (37) made it four wins in four tries beyond a mile when taking a two runner renewal of the Cocked Hat Stakes. He looked in trouble when Contributer went by him with a furlong and a half to run but then rallied strongly to kick clear again by two and a half lengths.

I'm not sure I buy the idea that Contributer idled. My ratings say Disclaimer ran a solid pattern class time. He could well be better than I've been able to rate him and should have no trouble staying a mile and a half.
 
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NOT A GREAT IRISH DERBY

TRADING LEATHER (39) ground out a solid win in the Irish Derby. He sat about ten lengths off the tearaway leader in third, closed up from half a mile out and slowly asserted under pressure after taking the lead about a furlong and a half from the finish.

It would have been hard for any horse to look impressive due to the fierce early pace. This caused the field to finish the last three furlongs around 1.8 seconds slower than they did in the maiden on similar ground the previous day and 0.95 of a second slower than in the truly run two mile handicap on the same card.

Basically it was a long hard slog in the closing stages and Trading Leather proved he stays a mile and a half really well.

I concede it's hard to assess race times at the Curragh as there are so many different tracks used on any given day it's hard to find a decent basis for comparison. And if you look at raw times you could argue this was an exceptionally fast performance as Trading Leather ran only seven hundredths of a second off the course record held jointly by the very smart Galileo. The thing is that the other joint record holder is Shawanda, a useful dual Group 1 winner but not a real superstar. My read of the numbers is that Trading Leather will struggle in Group 1 races against older horses on this run and his previous ones.

Runner up GALILEO ROCK (38) was under pressure a long way out but kept on responding. The more I see of him the more I think he wants to go up in distance. He'll surely improve over two miles plus next year.

The unlucky horse of the race was third placed FESTIVE CHEER (37). He was held up in last place but moved up threateningly until cut off when his jockey went for a gap down the inside. The tiring leader Cap O'Rushes rolled over towards the rail, forcing him to be taken up. Festive Cheer was switched violently to the outside for another shot at the leaders and picked up well but far too late. You can argue he would have won but my thinking is he'd have run second.

Festive Cheer showed he can produce a serious finishing kick off a moderate early pace when winning his maiden at Dundalk and when getting beat only a head by dual Derby trial winner Tableaux in France. His powers of acceleration probably make him the best long term prospect to take from this race. The fact that he could go so close in a race run to suit grinders says a lot for his class and versatility. His run also boosts the form of Coolmore's French colt Tableaux who is due to run in the Grand Prix de Paris on the 13th of July.

The big disappointment of the race was Derby winner RULER OF THE WORLD (34) who failed to make much headway in the closing stages, getting beat ten lengths into fifth.

I suggested after the Derby that since Ruler Of The World is such a nippy, agile horse he might prefer tracks like Epsom and Chester where he's scored his two big wins. That now shapes up as the best explanation for his sub par run here. But he was sweating up before the race, so he may simply have been feeling his hard race at Epsom.



ERNEST HEMINGWAY SHAPING UP AS THE TOP STAYER

ERNEST HEMMINGWAY (40) has earned big write ups from me on two of his most recent three starts before the Curragh Cup. So I was pleased to see him stroll away with the race in such emphatic fashion.

With just a quarter mile to run victory hardly looked a foregone conclusion. Ernest Hemmingway was disputing fifth place three lengths behind the leader and being rowed along. But suddenly he lengthened and cruised by his rivals very quickly to run away with a five length win from last year's Irish St Leger winner Royal Diamond.. He passed the post full of running and clocked the fastest time run over 1m 6f at the Curragh in twenty years.

The amazing pace Ernest Hemingway showed when making the running in last year's Arc on unsuitably heavy ground tells me he's not just a stayer. So I'd like to see him given a shot at a big middle distance prize sometime. Meanwhile he looks the best stayer in training and you'd have to be very brave to bet against him whenever he gets the fast surface he seems to need.



SUDIRMAN LOOKS SMART

I liked the way SUDIRMAN (23 - pace adjusted 37) picked up to win the sprint finish for the Railway Stakes. They'd gone a bit slow early, as is often the case in two year old races. But they were really flying over the last three furlongs which I clocked in 32.75 seconds.

Given the pace they were travelling it was impressive that Sudirman was always moving a bit better than his rivals and moved through smoothly to score by half a length.

Sudirman is a well balanced, medium sized colt with a fast ground action that has the build of a miler. The plan was to step him up to seven furlongs at Goodwood but now he's won a Group 2 it sounds like his connections want to go up to Group 1 company and stay there. That would probably mean the Phoenix Stakes or the Prix Morny followed by the National Stakes and the Dewhurst.

It would probably be better to step Sudirman up to seven furlongs right away. But the Phoenix Stakes often features a good early pace, so it could well provide the greater test of stamina that looks likely to suit Sudirman.

In any event Sudirman looks a Group 1 prospect if my ratings are any guide.

Runner up BIG TIME (22 - pace adjusted 36) is a mature, muscular, good bodied sort. He disputed the lead all the way and responded so strongly to the winner's challenge that he pulled well clear of the rest. The race I'd like to see him go for is the Prix Morny.

COACH HOUSE (17 - pace adjusted 31) ran out of puff in the last furlong and was allowed to come home in his own time. It could be he didn't stay the sixth furlong.





BURN THE BOATS COULD WELL BE GROUP CLASS

I really liked the way BURN THE BOATS (37) asserted in the closing stages of the valuable Paddy Power Sprint on the Irish Derby card. He looked to have a bit in hand to me.

Burn The Boats won a claiming maiden over a mile back in January on Dundalk's Polytrack but looks more of a sprinter judged by this run. I'm rather interested in his chances of his taking another valuable sprint handicap, the International Stakes at Ascot and see him as a potential Group winner.



ABBAYE THE RIGHT TARGET FOR SLADE POWER

With two furlongs to run in the Group 3 Sapphire Stakes SLADE POWER (31 - pace adjusted 39) was moving so much better than his rivals it looked like he might win by a big margin. He still won nicely and my suspicion is he could have run a bit quicker if his jockey had been able to delay his run even longer. His hand was perhaps a bit forced by the fact his mount was going so well.

It looks like Slade Power is one of those horses that's best suited by a small field. To date he's won all four times he's run five or six furlongs in fields of ten or less but lost all three times he's run in bigger fields since his maiden win.

If I'm right about this then I suspect the reason is Slade Power dislikes the scorching early gallop invariably generated by the cavalry charge of sprinters in a big field. That makes top French sprints look an attractive option as they rarely go that fast early, however big the field. If he were mine I'd be targeting the Abbaye by way of the Prix du Petit Couvert.



FLYING THE FLAG CAN PROBABLY IMPROVE

FLYING THE FLAG (37) clocked a decent time to win the Group 3 International Stakes over ten furlongs at the Curragh. He's run just as fast twice before this season in the Irish Guineas and the Derby, and is a few lengths off top class on his form to date. But I think he's worth keeping an eye on due to the way he ran.

Flying The Flag is a rather gangly, immature sort that still runs in a somewhat awkward manner. His head carriage was rather high as he stretched away in the closing stages. So there's scope for him to improve by maturing both mentally and physically. In addition his final time may have been hurt slightly by the early pace which was possibly a little too strong.

Most likely Flying The Flag will continue to be a Group 3 horse this season. But he could well improve if he's kept in training next year. And right now he will be interesting in any race when he gets the combination of ten furlongs and fast ground that trainer Aidan O'Brien says he prefers.

MOST IMPROVED (27) got beat over ten lengths into third but almost certainly needed the run, his first for O'Brien, off a lengthy break. He's grown into a good-bodied, muscular, classy sort and moved well for quite a way. However there were two points in the race, once just after the start and again just after halfway, where the two leaders slipped away from him. He pulled back the gap both times before tiring in the closing stages.

At this stage it's premature to say that Most Improved doesn't stay ten furlongs. But big-bodied, muscular sorts like him tend to prefer shorter distances. So I imagine this is what Aidan O'Brien had in mind when he said after the race "we'll sharpen him up now".

Judged by his record Most Improved is probably best with a fairly recent run on fastish ground over a mile. He won the St James's Palace Stakes in these circumstances last year in fast time and would be interesting in another top level mile race, the Sussex Stakes, providing he can bounce back to his best by taking the seven furlong Minstrel Stakes next time.

MOONLIGHT CLOUD AN AMAZINGLY GOOD SPRINTER

I've previously noted the amazingly fast leg speed shown by MOONLIGHT CLOUD (40) when she accelerates. She showed this once more when hosing up in the Prix de la Porte Maillot at Longchamp on her seasonal debut. With 300 metres to run she was running ninth of the ten starters. But her legs then became a near blur as jockey Thierry Jarnet asked her to move. She took just 22 incredibly quick strides to catch the leader and rapidly went away to win easily.

Moonlight Cloud has won over a mile in last year's Prix du Moulin. But that was only a four runner contest where the field took a pedestrian 40.28 seconds to run the first three furlongs before sprinting the last five furlongs in 56.62 seconds. She's failed to reach the first three the other three times she's been asked to run a mile.

The other obvious pattern in Moonlight Cloud's form is that so far she has failed to hold her form after September. She's run unplaced all three times she's raced in October or later.

However over seven furlongs or less earlier in the year Moonlight Cloud's record is sensational. She would have won ten of her eleven starts in these circumstances if that short head photo against the mighty Black Caviar had gone her way.

A third successive win in the Prix Maurice de Gheest looks pretty much a slam dunk for Moonlight Cloud. But I'm more dubious about her prospects of taking the Marois over a mile seven days later.



INTELLO WINS OVER A MILE, BUT IS IT HIS DISTANCE?

INTELLO (28 - pace adjusted 38) won the Group 3 Prix Messidor in decent style, but he didn't look too impressive in the sprint finish. And my interpretation of the sectional times suggest it was just a Group 3 class performance. So I'm inclined to think he's not going to be able to score a Group 1 win over the distance when he tackles the Marois next time. He still looks more of a ten furlong performer to me.

If he were mine I'd be forgetting about races over a mile or a mile and a half and focus on ten furlong races with Intello. I can see the logic of going longer or shorter as the only ten furlong Group 1 races available from now on are run outside France. But I think the negatives of travelling with a three year old are outweighed by those of running him over too short or too long a distance.

The big plus is that right now there is a very easy Group 1 or rather Grade 1 for him to win over ten furlongs in next month's Secretariat Stakes at Arlington Park in Chicago. Intello would be a good thing to take that.

KING GEORGE AT THE MERCY OF CIRRUS DES AIGLES

Last December in Hong Kong a colleague handed me a photo of CIRRUS DES AIGLES (39) being unloaded from his shipping container after flying in for the Hong Kong Cup. As he handed it over he asked whether a horse that looked like that could possibly be in good enough shape to win one of the world's top races.

I was amazed to see how emaciated Cirrus Des Aigles looked in the photo. His ribs were sticking out and showing up sharply in the sunlight. He'd clearly lost a lot of condition on the journey over. Very soon after he was withdrawn from the race, having pulled a ligament.

I think that photo explains why Cirrus Des Aigles has run unplaced all four times he's run in the Far East. He coped with the relatively short journey to the United Arab Emirates to win the Dubai Sheema Classic but may well have fretted away valuable condition on those four marathon hauls to Hong Kong and Japan.

Trainer Corrine Barande-Barbe warned before his comeback in last Sunday's Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud that Cirrus Des Aigles would need the run. This is the norm for him.

Previously I had thought that Cirrus Des Aigles needed a run within the past 31 days to produce his best. But his win in last year's Prix Dollar showed that it's simply on his seasonal debut that he's unfit. His apparent dislike of travelling long distances explains a couple of his flops better.

In the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud Cirrus Des Aigles was a little keen early on, as horses often are off a long break. But he still managed to pull off his trademark trick of starting his home run rounding the home turn - something very few horses can do. He kicked into a two length lead as the pacemaker fell away about half a mile out and set sail for home. He was soon joined by the eventual winner Novellist and the pair engaged in a lengthy duel all the way up to the furlong marker before Cirrus Des Aigles' fitness seemed to give out. He ended up running a close fifth.

The strong pace and the way he ran should ensure this run brings Cirrus des Aigles on a lot. This was confirmed the next day when Corrine Barande-Barbe reported "He is great this morning. He rolled in his box, went for a walk and was standing up on his back legs and fighting. Races seem to give him a lot of energy."

She added "There was no pace at the beginning of the race. The German pacemaker (Lateran Accord) had to be ridden to go to the front and Cirrus was too concerned with what he was doing and could never get into the right rhythm. It was also his first run over the distance in over a year - since he won the Dubai Sheema Classic. I didn't have much choice as if I had run him over a much shorter distance, it would not have been the right preparation for the King George. The King George is still the plan. I think he will improve a lot for the run and he will make a few steps between now and then. He will be in much better condition at Ascot."

The ante-post favourite for the King George is St Nicholas Abbey. But though he's run well at Ascot he's actually lost all eight times he's run around tracks bigger than a mile and a half in circumference since his 2yo days.

The other two top class horses that might make the line up at Ascot are the Germans Pastorius and Novellist. But Pastorius is also entered the next day in a German race over ten furlongs which may well be his best distance. And Novellist has just had a hard race to win the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. Seeing that his objective is the Arc I think they may well now give Novellist a break to ensure he stays fresh.

As I see it the King George is at the mercy of Cirrus des Aigles. In his absence he lost his title as Europe's all time leading money earner to Dunaden and St Nicholas Abbey. But he has a great chance of getting it back and justifying his status as the world's highest rated horse on official figures in the King George.

NOVELLIST (42) won the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud in good style, picking up well off the strong pace set by his stablemate to engage in that lengthy duel with Cirrus Des Aigles and then hold off the strong finishing Dunaden.

Novellist is an athletic, classy looking performer that can produce a very good turn of foot. He looked set to become Europe's top three year old after winning the Union Rennen impressively last year. But he then got beat half a length by Pastorius in the German Derby and ran even worse when fourth in the Grosser Preis von Baden.

Trainer Andreas Wohler has an explanation for those two losses - the only defeats in Novellist's nine race career to date:

"Last year, he was not quite himself in the Derby, and the Grosser Preis von Baden was a strangely run race after which he had an allergy the next day." He added "He finished the season well, and I was very pleased with his comeback run. We will consider the King George if he is well and later on, the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is the target."

Most likely the lengthy duel with Cirrus Des Aigles in a fast run race will take a while to recover from. So I rather doubt that we'll be seeing Novellist run in the King George. There are so many big international races he could win in the last three months of the year that it makes little sense jeopardising his chances for the sake of a single contest he might win in four week's time. Surely he'll now be rested.

Runner up DUNADEN (41) probably benefited from the efforts of Novellist's pacemaker even more than the winner as the strong pace clearly brought his great stamina into play. He was picking up really strongly in the final furlong after twice bumping with Pirika earlier in the straight. He's much bigger than Pirika and the bumps did not seem to cost him much ground.

Now Dunaden will be rested and brought back for the Arc, presumably by way of the Prix Foy.

I continue to think Dunaden has a serious chance of taking the Arc. He seems to up his game every time he runs at Longchamp and the rough and tumble of big fields appears to suit him very well (as evidenced by the way he came out best in the barging match with Pirika here). If he loses the Prix Foy (which seems likely given the probable small field and slow early pace) he will enter the Arc with just one win in his last dozen starts. As a result he could well start at a huge price despite his fine international record.

Third placed HAYA LANDA (40) deserves a mention as she ran a fast time. But, as ever, she lacked the pace to win at this level. She's finished fourth in the Arc and the Prix de Diane and now run third in another Group 1 but has now lost all seventeen pattern races she's contested.

It is fascinating the difference a slight lack of acceleration can make in top class races, especially in France where short homestraights and sprint finishes are the norm. Haya Landa has now run second by less than a length in four pattern races and always seems to find at least one to do her for a turn of foot.

Perhaps the thing to do is to follow the example of Alain de Royer-Dupre who brought the similarly one paced Shareta to Britain to end her long losing streak by taking the Yorkshire Oaks last year. That race could be a decent option but an even better one would be the Qipco British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes in October. The steep uphill finish and likely soft ground might well offset Haya Land's lack of acceleration enough to produce her first ever pattern success.



TREVE IMPRESSES IN PRIX DE DIANE

I confess I didn't analyse the Prix de Diane. I thought it was simply a matter of deciding whether Flotilla or Esoterique, the 1-2 in the Pouliches was the most likely stayer. As it turned out neither of them got home. The race was won by TREVE (39) impressed with the way she powered clear of her rivals off a strong early pace.

Treve looks sure to stay the mile and a half of the Vermeille and the Arc. She's unbeaten in three starts and may well be able to run even faster than she did here. Though I have to say there are some very smart three year old colts in France this year plus Ivanhowe over in Germany. So I doubt Treve will be good enough for the Arc even if she takes the Vermeille.



PILOTE FLIES HOME

PILOTE (38) clocked a fast time to win a strongly run renewal of the Listed Prix Matchem at Maisons-Laffitte. He is a well proportioned, racy, athletic sort that looks built for a turn of foot and also longer than the nine furlongs he tackled here. He raced on the outside, moving smoothly as he disputed second race early then kicked on soon after turning in. He looked to face a serious challenge when runner up Onedargent quickened up smartly from the rear to nearly come alongside. But Pilote kept going so strongly he was able to clear away to score by three lengths while simply being pushed along with hands and heels.

Pilote has lost only twice in his last six starts. One of his losses came when he was a strong finishing second to the promising Mutin (who is unbeaten in four starts). His other defeat was a close and strong finishing fourth in the Prix de Fontainebleau, the top French trial for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000).

This was Pilote's first run beyond a mile and he clearly appreciated the step up in distance and the strong pace. I have no doubt that he will stay ten furlongs and there has to be a decent chance he'll stay a mile and a half judged by his physique and pedigree (his dam was a dual Group winner over a mile and a half). He is in the Grand Prix de Paris but I imagine trainer Andre Fabre won't want to jump him up radically in distance and class for that race. I'd expect to see Pilote tackle a ten furlong Group race next time.



CHAMPION STAKES THE LOGICAL TARGET FOR INTELLO

INTELLO (41) picked up really well off a strong pace to win the Prix du Jockey Club clearly in fast time. The run establishes him as the best three year old we've seen so far in Europe.

Trainer Andre Fabre now faces a difficult choice about what future races to run Intello in.

The normal plan with a top French three year old is to stick to French racing in the second half of the season. The trouble is if Intello does this he will be faced with the choice of going back down to a mile or up to a mile and a half.

Fabre tried going back to a mile with his 2010 Prix du Jockey Club winner Lope de Vega and that didn't work out well.

On the other hand no Prix du Jockey Club winner has gone on to win a Group 1 over a mile and a half since the race was cut back to ten and a half furlongs in 2005. These days the race seems to suit out and out mile and a quarter specialists.

Intello is rather too leggy and racy to be an obvious mile and a half horse. And the pace and acceleration he's shown suggests he's inherited the speed from the dam's side of his pedigree at least as much as the stamina of his sire Galileo.

Andre Fabre has previously expressed doubts about Intello's ability to stay a mile and a half. And he is one of those rare trainers who insists on deciding exactly which races his charges run in. As co-owner Gerard Wertheimer said after the race "As for the future, that's up to the trainer. Each to their own job."

Seeing that Fabre already has two good three year olds for the Arc in Ocovango and Tableaux I find it hard to believe he'll run Intello as well.

The logical choice for Intello is surely the Champion Stakes over ten furlongs.

French horses have an amazing record in the Champion Stakes, almost certainly because they are fresher than their British and Irish counterparts due to the mid season break most of them are given.

French horses have contested 23 of the last 36 renewals of the Champion Stakes and won 12 of them from a total of 36 runners. If you'd bet all the French raiders you'd have made a huge profit.

I imagine Intello will now be rested over the Summer and brought back for the end of the season. He'll have to drop down to Group 3 company for the Prix du Prince d'Orange in late September if he is to remain at ten furlongs and prep for the Champion Stakes. So perhaps Fabre will take another shot over a mile with him after all in the Prix du Moulin. I'd be surprised if he stepped him up to a mile and a half.

The burst of acceleration Intello showed to kick clear a furlong and a half out initially caught runner up MORANDI (40) flat footed. But the grey stayed on again in great style through the last furlong to pull back a length of the three length lead the winner had opened up.

This was Morandi's best ever run. The earlier experiments over a mile were clearly a mistake. He deserves a shot at the Grand Prix de Paris now to see if he can improve further over a mile and a half.

Third placed SKY HUNTER (40) was only a neck behind the winner with a furlong and a half to run. But the winner's acceleration had him floundering even more than Morandi. Unlike Morandi he failed to pick up again. Indeed his stride was shortening inside the final furlong. So even though he's by a Derby winner out of a dam who stayed a mile and three quarters I'm a bit wary of his prospects of staying a mile and a half.

Fourth placed MSHAWISH (38) was always close up. He kept on well enough but looks the least likely of the principals to stay a mile and a half. In fact he's entered in the St James's Palace and Sussex Stakes over a mile. Seeing that his best run on my ratings came over that distance it might well be a good idea to cut him back in trip.

SHIKAPOUR (38) stayed on steadily up the straight and headed Mshawish for fourth one stride past the line. He looks a logical Grand Prix de Paris candidate off this run as he's stoutly bred and won his only previous start (a hot Longchamp maiden) over eleven furlongs.

British raider WILLIE THE WHIPPER (37) turned into the homestraight in a distant eighteenth position. He was still eight lengths down with just a furlong and a half to run. But he was finishing like a train and cut the deficit to 4.6 lengths by the finish,

Since the Prix du Jockey Club was cut back to 10.5 furlongs in 2005 five of the seven Grand Prix de Paris winners prepped in the race. None reached the first three but three of them finished very strongly just like Willie The Whipper did here.

Willie The Whipper stayed on well to finish second on heavy ground to Morandi in the ten furlong Criterium de Saint Cloud in Group 1 company at two. So clearly stamina is his strong suit.

If he were mine I'd be taking up Willie The Whipper's entry in the Grand Prix de Paris. It will probably turn out to be a stronger race than his alternative targets of the Irish or German Derbies. But the deciding factor for me is that the Grand Prix de Paris tends to feature a stronger early pace than the other two races and would therefore bring his stamina into play more.



MAXIOS SHOWS THAT TURN OF FOOT AGAIN

There are few middle distance performers with a better turn of foot than MAXIOS (41). And he used it to escape being boxed in and then catch Planteur in the Prix d'Ispahan.

Maxios blanked as a three year old but has shown top class form in almost all his other starts.

There remains a doubt over whether Maxios truly stays a mile and a half. This is reflected in his upcoming entries in the Prince Of Wales, Eclipse and Arlington Million. However I'd have little concern about him getting the distance in the Breeders' Cup Turf around Santa Anita's ultra-tight downhill turf course. So it will be interesting if he skips the Arc and is targeted at the big American race instead. Meanwhile he's going to be tough to beat in any European ten furlong race he contests.

Runner up PLANTEUR (41) couldn't quite contain the winner in the closing stages but ran another fine race. The question now is whether he can hold his form.

Planteur had a very hard race when just losing an exceptionally fast renewal of the Prix Niel as a three year old. Since then he has run unplaced all six times he's run after May. If he were mine I'd give him a long break until September and bring him back fresh for one or two of the big international prizes run towards the end of the year.

Third placed MANDOUR (40) was only sixth passing the furlong pole but finished strongest of all to go down by just over a length. This lightly raced four year old is clearly very useful.

That admirable front runner DON BOSCO (39) ran his usual honest race. He doesn't seem quite good enough to win at the top level but always seems able to get within about three lengths of the winner. In fact he's been beaten three and a quarter lengths or less in 23 of his last 26 starts.

ZINBAA (38) is now eight years old but is still smart. He's won three of the last four times he's run a mile on soft or heavy ground following a recent run.



BEAUTY PARLOUR (38) ran only a length per mile below her best on my ratings. She picked up pretty well despite being given an easy time of things in the last half furlong. She's not really capable of beating males if my ratings are any guide. And she's almost certainly better over ten furlongs plus than she is over eight or nine furlongs. She's still capable of winning another Group 1 against her own sex if she gets a bit of cut in the ground and a long enough distance.
 
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