Colin Phillips
At the Start
BOBS WORTH HAS A BIG CHANCE IN GOLD CUP
Last season was the strongest I can recall in the last couple of decades for novice chasers.
In a normal season there are only eight or ten novice chasers that earn ratings of 39 or more from me. Last season there were twenty one. Namely Al Ferof, Blackstairmountain, Bobs Worth, Bog Warrior, Champion Court, Cristal Bonus, Cue Card, Days Hotel, Flemenstar, For Non Stop, Grands Crus, Invictus, Last Instalment, Lucky William, Notus De La Tour, Peddlers Cross, Penny Max, Restless Harry, Sprinter Sacre, Silviniaco Conti, Sir Des Champs
This being so it's no surprise that six of the eight most valuable Grade 1 and Grade 2 chases run so far this season have fallen to one of those twenty one horses.
The latest success by this elite group came in the Hennessy Gold Cup with BOBS WORTH (42).
Bobs Worth stayed in touch and made significant ground from the fifteenth. He then engaged in a lengthy duel with old rival First Lieutenant almost all the way up the straight, finally beat him off then had to withstand a powerful late charge by Tidal Bay.
Making three separate big moves in a race is a sure sign of class, and it's nothing new for Bobs Worth.
Bobs Worth is a rather odd horse in that he rallies repeatedly in his races and seems to have almost bottomless reserves.
On reflection the best of his wins last season probably came at the Hennessy meeting last year in the Berkshire Novices Chase. In that race the brilliant Cue Card was allowed an uncontested lead and looked home and hosed in between the last two fences when kicking four lengths clear of Bobs Worth after the pair had engaged in a sustained duel that saw the pair pull 35 lengths clear of the rest. However Bobs Worth mounted one of his amazing rallies and pulled back the advantage on the run in with sheer class and stamina to get up by a short head.
The only other horse to finish in front of Cue Card over fences so far has been Sprinter Sacre. And he only managed the feat over two miles, a trip too short for Cue Card who was finishing like a train. Bobs Worth beat Cue Card over two and a half miles - which is close to ideal for Cue Card and on the short side for Bobs Worth.
Bobs Worth is best at jumping fences left handed according to trainer Nicky Henderson. This is why he's not running in the King George. Toss out his debut run and his two chase starts going right handed and Bobs Worth has won all his other eight starts.
Last season I was a little dismissive of Bobs Worth on one occasion, arguing that the reason he did so well was because he was jumping like an experienced chaser against novices. He seemed to have got the idea right away of putting in a short one or going long when needed. Most horses take several runs to do that. On reflection this is a good thing and I was daft to criticise Bobs Worth for jumping so well.
Bobs Worth is a good jumper. He's a Grade 1 winner. He has the stamina to rally repeatedly. And he's now won the best handicap chase of the season carrying 11-6.
Sixteen horses have previously won the Hennessy with 11-5 or more. Nine of the sixteen had either previously won the Cheltenham Gold Cup or went on to win it that season.
Clearly Bobs Worth has a major chance of winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The caveat is the other twenty horses on that list of smart novices from last season, notably the unbeaten Sir Des Champs.
Runner up TIDAL BAY (41) ran a really big race. As ever he was dropped right out and could be seen almost climbing in slow motion over a couple of the fences as he adopted his odd looking super-cautious method of getting from one side of a jump to the other.
It's easy to dismiss Tidal Bay when you're watching the early stages of a race as you see him clamber over a jump far behind the leaders. But he has almost bottomless stamina. So if the distance is long enough and the ground soft enough he's sure to start getting involved at the business end of proceedings, during which we've all seen him make up a ludicrous amount of ground.
Here Tidal Bay could be seen moving really well on the outside of the field turning in. He moved into third two out then mounted one of his patented late charges to catch First Lieutenant and then run away from that one as he tried to close the gap on the winner on the run in.
Tidal Bay has won three of the last five times the going stick has read 6.4 or lower. In his only other recent loss on such ground he was a fast finishing one and a quarter length second in the Betfair Chase. This run was just as good. Tidal Bay has lost the last seventeen times the going stick has read higher than 6.4.
It's a shame that Aintree is such a fast draining course because Tidal Bay would be as close to a good thing as you can get for the Grand National if he got his ground. Let's hope the ground comes right for him sometime this season as he deserves another big win in what looks likely to be his last season given his age. The big plus in this regard is that he's just as good over hurdles as fences which opens up more options.
Third placed FIRST LIEUTENANT (40) was always right up there, led seven out and then engaged in a long duel with Bobs Worth most of the way up the straight. He over jumped the third last massively with about a foot to spare but still only ceded best at the last. He wasn't subjected to an all out drive when his jockey saw he couldn't catch Tidal Bay who bounded past him on the run in and increased his advantage by half a length with every stride.
I was impressed with the way First Lieutenant ran here. The way he duelled for so long with Bobs Worth tells me he still has to rank as one of the best three mile chasers. And there's every chance he can do better as his trainer Mouse Morris insists he's better on faster ground in the Spring - something I'm inclined to agree with.
It's very possible that First Lieutenant will lose the Lexus next time and his prep for the Gold Cup. This would mean he could enter the Gold Cup on a losing streak of nine races and be a very big price as a result. However I'd be wary of dismissing his chances in that race because he's run one big race after another, winning two Grade 1's and placing in five others in his relatively short career.
The race I like First Lieutenant for most of all is the Punchestown Gold Cup. He should get good ground for that race and he'll be fresher than most of his rivals because Mouse Morris plans on racing him sparingly till the Spring.
THE PACKAGE (38) ran a bit below his best to take fourth. I suspect he was still feeling the effects of his tough race against Michel Le Bon on his previous start just three weeks before. If he's given a break I can readily see him winning another valuable handicap.
FELTHAM STILL THE RIGHT TARGET FOR DYNASTE
It must be nerve wracking to train one of the best horses, especially when it's still lightly raced and you need to pretty much guess at what circumstances suit it best. You can easily be made to look a fool if you take a chance and run the horse in the wrong conditions.
That said, I think trainer David Pipe was guilty of being what I call an equine hypochondriac when speculating that his long held plan of running DYNASTE (40) in the Feltham Novices' Chase might be in question as some people have told him the horse jumps a little to the left.
I saw no evidence of this during Dynaste's easy win in the Grade 2 Berkshire Novices' Chase at Newbury. He jumped straight and well all the way when maintaining a strong gallop to score full of running in fast time.
Just to be sure I went back and looked at the old video of Dynaste beating the smart Organisateur at Taunton. Taunton is a tight right handed track and Dynaste had every chance to jump out to his left as he led all the way. But he jumped straight as a die there too and hugged Taunton's tight right-handed turns.
Yes Dynaste ran below his best at right-handed Ascot and Sandown. But that was at a time when he was setting too strong a pace to last home on such testing tracks. He wasn't reported to have jumped right in either of those two races or any others come to that.
Most horses have strides of 21-25 feet and there's a sweet spot of only around three to five feet from which it's best to launch themselves over a jump. So it often takes a while for an inexperienced horse to learn to shorten or lengthen their stride in the run up to an obstacle the right amount to ensure they take off from the correct point. Some horse's resort to running down a hurdle or fence to their left or right as a way of arriving at the correct take off point.
This habit is normally restricted to inexperienced novices. On the rare occasion that an experienced horse jumps this way they invariably only win on tracks that turn in the direction they jump - except in races well below their true class level. And to do that they need to be kept to the inner wing of the jump. Watch videos of Poquelin jumping left handed tracks or Captain Chris going right handed and you'll see what I mean.
Dynaste has shown no sign of this sort of behaviour, so I don't see any reason to be concerned about him being asked to jump right handed at Kempton in the Feltham. (Of course now he'll probably go and jump wildly left and lost at Kempton making me look silly.)
VALMARI (36) set a strong pace and jumped well till falling at the fourth last. Watching her jump I began to worry that she was cutting it a bit fine at many of the fences, pinging them at speed while launching herself at the last possible moment. It enabled he to gain ground but I had a horrible feeling she might be in trouble when she came under pressure. Sure enough when Dynaste moved up to press her between the fifth and fourth last she was prompted to speed up and run that section of the race 1.1 seconds faster than they went in the valuable chase for experienced chaser over the same trip. She couldn't quite jump at that speed when beginning to tire and crumpled on landing. I'm betting she’d have finished third and am rating her on that basis.
Horses that can set a strong pace and jump fast are often bests on tight tracks. In this regard it's interesting to note that Valmari has run two times on tracks 11 furlongs or less in circumference and won both times.
BIG BUCK'S AS GOOD AS EVER
BIG BUCK'S (41) had little more than a public exercise gallop when winning the Grade 2 Sportingbet Long Distance Hurdle for the fourth time. Rider Ruby Walsh was able to take five long look backs at his rivals from two out to see if there was any need to ask Big Buck's to break out of a canter. There was no need. Big Buck's was able to slow up to take a leisurely 3.6 seconds longer to get to the line from two out than in the other two hurdles on the card. I'm sure he could have run at least as fast in the closing stages as those other two winners if he'd been asked and I'm rating him on that basis.
This win stretched means that Big Buck's has now won all eighteen times he's run over the standard hurdles used at most British tracks. He doesn't seem anywhere near as good over fixed brush hurdles or fences, having won just five of his twenty tries over those stiffer types of jumps.
Then again it could simply be that all Big Buck's needs is a test of stamina, regardless of the kind of jumps he's facing. After all if he hadn't unseated at the last in the Hennessy he might well have won all twenty times he's run three miles or more.
The connections of Big Buck's were nearly tempted into trying him back over fixed brush hurdles at Haydock instead of running in this race. And a lot of his fans would like to see him given another try over fences. But it looks clear he'll be following his usual program this season as he builds up towards an attempt at winning his fifth World Hurdle. That is the Long Walk followed by the Cleeve Hurdle.
If Big Buck's cut back to two and a half miles he could get beat by Oscar Whisky. He might also get beat if he had to face Tidal Bay on really soft ground. But the only thing that realistically seems likely to beat him at this stage is old age.
THE KNOXS SHOULD WIN A BIG HANDICAP CHASE
BLESS THE WINGS (39) won a valuable 2m 4f handicap chase at Newbury that deserved Garde 2 or 3 status in fast time. I can't say whether he would have held on had The Knoxs not tipped up when disputing the lead at the last. But Bless The Wings is clearly smart.
It seems that Bless The Wings does not get home soft or heavy and is best on galloping tracks. If two photos in hurdle races had gone his way he'd have won five of the six times he's run on galloping tracks when the ground was good to soft or faster. He's more than capable of winning another valuable chase.
THE KNOXS (39) took a crashing fall at the last and lay winded for some time. This is the fourth time in nine chase starts that he's fallen (I'm including his point to point runs). However he has twice returned to win on his run immediately after a fall, so I'm not too concerned that the accident will have dented his confidence.
Like quite a few dodgy jumpers The Knoxs seems best off a break. It also seems clear he's too keen going to last home on very stiff tracks. So far he's won seven of the eight times he's completed the course off breaks longer than five weeks on tracks where the homestraight rises less than thirty feet. So if he can avoid such tracks (Cheltenham, Sandown, Towcester) he's got to be interesting next time he comes into a race off a break longer than five weeks. His official rating understates his ability by around a stone if my numbers are right, so he should be a good bet to win a valuable handicap at some point this season.
Old MAHOGANY BLAZE (39) is one-paced and this explains why he's lost 25 in a row and scored only once in 33 pattern race starts. However he's a strong sort that's always looked like he'd appreciate longer than two miles, and now that he's older he finally seems to stay two and a half miles. In fact he has now run big races three of the last four times he's run two and a half miles plus. Here he nearly got up to win despite being hampered when The Knoxs fell right in front of him at the last. He rallied strongly and failed by only a neck.
Mahogany Blaze's official rating has gone down by thirteen pounds in the last couple of years but this run shows he's as good as ever. I can easily see him winning a valuable handicap chase soon and wouldn't be surprised if it was over three miles in something like the Racing Post Chase.
COUNTRYWIDE FLAME NEEDS TO RUN FASTER
COUNTRYWIDE FLAME (38) clocked only a Grade 3 class time by my reckoning to beat three rivals in a quite strongly run renewal of the Fighting Fifth Hurdle. He won with a fair bit in hand and can presumably run faster. But I would urge caution about his Champion Hurdle prospects on this showing.
I would bear in mind that since See You Then won the Champion Hurdle back in 1985 only one horse as young as Countrywide Flame has taken the big race even though 80 have tried.
Runner up CINDERS AND ASHES (37) was less than two lengths behind the winner jumping the last but was allowed to come home in his own time when it was clear he couldn't catch him. I'm rating him as a two length loser which seems fair to me. Nonetheless this was a bit below his best.
Cinders And Ashes is a bigger-bodied, stronger horse than the winner and will surely go chasing sooner rather than later. His trainer blamed the heavy ground for his defeat. But he won a Grade 2 on heavy ground last season. My feeling is that he probably just needed the run. This was certainly true last season when he improved significantly from his first to his second run.
WINGS OF SMOKE CAN WIN AGAIN
WINGS OF SMOKE (36) was sensibly held up off the very strong early pace when winning an ordinary class 3 handicap chase at Newbury in borderline Listed class time. He was moving easily and obviously going best from a mile out. He made a mistake at the last which made it more of a race on the run in but he was still going so well it didn't matter.
It looks like Wings Of Smoke does not get home on soft or heavy ground or on a stiff track. Otherwise at trips around two and a half miles his record shows three wins from three tries.
ARVIKA LIGEONNIARE IS TOP CLASS
ARVIKA LIGEONNIARE (42) ran almost impossibly fast for a novice when running away with the Grade 1 Drinmore novices chase over two and a half miles at Fairyhouse. He forced all his rivals into jumping errors when taking the first at a speed they found uncomfortable. Their riders all decided to let him go, probably believing he was running too fast to last home.
The speed Arkiva Ligeonniare was going can be seen from the fact that he got from the first to the fifth fence 6.1 seconds faster than they went in the valuable mares handicap chase over the same distance. By the eleventh fence he'd increased that advantage to 11.80 lengths and was a long way clear. He was given a breather at that point which allowed his rivals to close up and reduced his margin over the mares to 7.6 seconds. But he then kicked away again to stretch his edge over the mares to 13.2 seconds before tiring over the last three fences and stopping almost to a walk on the run in. However crossing the line his advantage over the mares was still a monstrous 10.1 seconds. And by then he'd run his rivals ragged and they were too exhausted to mount a challenge.
Arvika Ligeonniare wasn't fully bending his back over the jumps but made no serious errors, and at the speed he was going this was still very fast and accurate jumping for a novice. No doubt he will learn to bend his back over the jumps sometime soon.
Arvika Ligeonniare is a strong, deep chested sort. He looks built to be a two and a half mile specialist but I could see him getting three miles (indeed he was fourth of nineteen in the Albert Bartlett over three miles last season). His pedigree points the same way too. His sire was unbeaten in three tries over jumps in France at around two and a quarter miles and his dam's best previous foal by far was Darastan who won the top steeplechase at France's second biggest jumps track Enghien, the Group 2 Grand Steeplechase d'Enghien over 3m 1f.
However a lot of Arkle winners later prove best over two and a half miles or longer. So I'm not averse to the idea of cutting back Arvika Ligeonniare to two miles next time for the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Indeed the speed he showed here suggests that the shorter trip might well be a benefit to him at this stage.
The one caveat I would add is that Arvika Ligeonniare must take a lot out of himself by running so hard. So I'd be rather confident that, like many short distance chasers, he will prove best on his first two starts of the season and then with breaks of at least five weeks between his completed starts thereafter. His only loss over jumps at less than three miles since leaving France came the one time he wasn't fresh in this way.
In this regard I have to say I'm a little concerned at the post race comment by Willie Mullins about future plans for Arvika Ligeonniare. He said "I will keep running him as much as I can, and get all the experience I can into him." If that entails running the horse back again less than five weeks after his next start I'd be inclined to bet against him. But if he pitches up at Cheltenham off a five week plus break I'd be wary of betting against him in the Arkle. He ran faster here than most winners of that race.
Runner up DEDIGOUT (38) managed to close up briefly to within four and a half lengths of the winner when he took a breather four out. He mounted another effort after the winner had stretched away again to cut the margin to around six lengths by two out. He ended up eleven lengths behind but twenty lengths clear of the rest.
If he hadn't bumped into a brilliant rival here Dedigout would have won six of his seven hurdle and chase starts under rules, with his only loss being a good third in a G2 hurdle to the smart Monksland. He's fast enough to beat most novice chasers at two and a half miles and has shown that he gets longer too.
NOTHING WRONG WITH JEZKI
JEZKI (39) clocked a good time when winning the Grade 1 Royal Bond Hurdle at Fairyhouse. He over jumped the first four flights, a problem he's exhibited in the past, but jumped much more cleanly over the last six. He challenged the front running Champagne Fever approaching for last and did his rival for a turn of foot.
Eleven previous Royal Bond winners have gone on to run in novice hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival. Three of the eleven won - Istabraq, Like-A-Butterfly and Hardy Eustace. Jezki has a long way to go before he can match that smart trio but clearly has a solid chance in the Supreme Novices.
Runner up CHAMPAGNE FEVER (38) set a strong pace but could not match the winner's finishing speed. He rallied however and the planned step up in distance does look a good idea. He does look built for longer trips and should be able to jump a fence in time.
Third placed ZUSKA (38) moved well rounding the home turn and closed all the way up the straight while showing a low head carriage. She won a Grade 3 over 5f longer last time. he has a fast ground action and if she hadn’t hung and made mistake 2 out when beaten 3/4 of a length one time she'd be unbeaten in four starts on good or faster ground. Back over two and a half miles, especially on faster ground, I can see her beating the boys in a top novice hurdle.
ZAIDPOUR HARD TO BEAT IN SMALL FIELDS
The Grade 1 Hatton's Grace Hurdle developed into a tactical affair due to a moderate pace for the first seven furlongs. This clearly suited ZAIDPOUR (38) who came through to lead when Voler La Vedette folded approaching the last and kicked nearly three lengths clear by the line.
Zaidpour has now won six of the eight times he's run in single figure fields over hurdles. In his two losses with nine or less runners he was second by a neck to First Lieutenant and second to Hurricane Fly - both times in Grade 1 contests. Since winning a maiden hurdle in a big field he's lost all five times he's run over timber in fields of ten or more.
Zaidpour can run a bit faster than he had to here. But I can't see him as a realistic threat to Big Buck's in the World Hurdle.
MONKSLAND (37) was held up in last place and tried to run down the winner from the last but made no inroads. He too can run a bit faster than this and did so when encountering a stronger early gallop last season.
The big disappointment of the race was VOLER LA VEDETTE (36) who came through to lead two out travelling like a winner then failed to sustain her effort. Her jockey reported she made a breathing noise. This surely explains why this smart mare has run below her best on both her starts this season. A breathing operation is scheduled for her.
MIDNIGHT GAME SHOULD BE COMPETITIVE IN GRADED COMPANY
MIDNIGHT GAME (36) clocked a Listed class time winning a good conditions hurdle at Fairyhouse. And it looked clear he could have run faster. He was simply cruising along from a mile out and easily made up the five length deficit on the four leaders approaching the turn and running into the straight. In fact his rider sat stock still as he moved forward and didn't ask him for an effort till jumping the last. Once shaken up he rapidly powered away from his rivals to score by seven lengths, full of running.
Last season Midnight Game earned the same rating from me when taking a novice hurdle but got beat 18 lengths plus the three times he tackled Graded company. However trainer Willie Mullins says he is a stronger horse this year, so I'm hopeful he can do better this time around when he's stepped up in class.
Midnight Game is a good moving horse so I'm inclined to agree with Willie Mullins who says he should do better on faster ground. The way he pinged a few of the hurdles at speed was impressive too.
Last season was the strongest I can recall in the last couple of decades for novice chasers.
In a normal season there are only eight or ten novice chasers that earn ratings of 39 or more from me. Last season there were twenty one. Namely Al Ferof, Blackstairmountain, Bobs Worth, Bog Warrior, Champion Court, Cristal Bonus, Cue Card, Days Hotel, Flemenstar, For Non Stop, Grands Crus, Invictus, Last Instalment, Lucky William, Notus De La Tour, Peddlers Cross, Penny Max, Restless Harry, Sprinter Sacre, Silviniaco Conti, Sir Des Champs
This being so it's no surprise that six of the eight most valuable Grade 1 and Grade 2 chases run so far this season have fallen to one of those twenty one horses.
The latest success by this elite group came in the Hennessy Gold Cup with BOBS WORTH (42).
Bobs Worth stayed in touch and made significant ground from the fifteenth. He then engaged in a lengthy duel with old rival First Lieutenant almost all the way up the straight, finally beat him off then had to withstand a powerful late charge by Tidal Bay.
Making three separate big moves in a race is a sure sign of class, and it's nothing new for Bobs Worth.
Bobs Worth is a rather odd horse in that he rallies repeatedly in his races and seems to have almost bottomless reserves.
On reflection the best of his wins last season probably came at the Hennessy meeting last year in the Berkshire Novices Chase. In that race the brilliant Cue Card was allowed an uncontested lead and looked home and hosed in between the last two fences when kicking four lengths clear of Bobs Worth after the pair had engaged in a sustained duel that saw the pair pull 35 lengths clear of the rest. However Bobs Worth mounted one of his amazing rallies and pulled back the advantage on the run in with sheer class and stamina to get up by a short head.
The only other horse to finish in front of Cue Card over fences so far has been Sprinter Sacre. And he only managed the feat over two miles, a trip too short for Cue Card who was finishing like a train. Bobs Worth beat Cue Card over two and a half miles - which is close to ideal for Cue Card and on the short side for Bobs Worth.
Bobs Worth is best at jumping fences left handed according to trainer Nicky Henderson. This is why he's not running in the King George. Toss out his debut run and his two chase starts going right handed and Bobs Worth has won all his other eight starts.
Last season I was a little dismissive of Bobs Worth on one occasion, arguing that the reason he did so well was because he was jumping like an experienced chaser against novices. He seemed to have got the idea right away of putting in a short one or going long when needed. Most horses take several runs to do that. On reflection this is a good thing and I was daft to criticise Bobs Worth for jumping so well.
Bobs Worth is a good jumper. He's a Grade 1 winner. He has the stamina to rally repeatedly. And he's now won the best handicap chase of the season carrying 11-6.
Sixteen horses have previously won the Hennessy with 11-5 or more. Nine of the sixteen had either previously won the Cheltenham Gold Cup or went on to win it that season.
Clearly Bobs Worth has a major chance of winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The caveat is the other twenty horses on that list of smart novices from last season, notably the unbeaten Sir Des Champs.
Runner up TIDAL BAY (41) ran a really big race. As ever he was dropped right out and could be seen almost climbing in slow motion over a couple of the fences as he adopted his odd looking super-cautious method of getting from one side of a jump to the other.
It's easy to dismiss Tidal Bay when you're watching the early stages of a race as you see him clamber over a jump far behind the leaders. But he has almost bottomless stamina. So if the distance is long enough and the ground soft enough he's sure to start getting involved at the business end of proceedings, during which we've all seen him make up a ludicrous amount of ground.
Here Tidal Bay could be seen moving really well on the outside of the field turning in. He moved into third two out then mounted one of his patented late charges to catch First Lieutenant and then run away from that one as he tried to close the gap on the winner on the run in.
Tidal Bay has won three of the last five times the going stick has read 6.4 or lower. In his only other recent loss on such ground he was a fast finishing one and a quarter length second in the Betfair Chase. This run was just as good. Tidal Bay has lost the last seventeen times the going stick has read higher than 6.4.
It's a shame that Aintree is such a fast draining course because Tidal Bay would be as close to a good thing as you can get for the Grand National if he got his ground. Let's hope the ground comes right for him sometime this season as he deserves another big win in what looks likely to be his last season given his age. The big plus in this regard is that he's just as good over hurdles as fences which opens up more options.
Third placed FIRST LIEUTENANT (40) was always right up there, led seven out and then engaged in a long duel with Bobs Worth most of the way up the straight. He over jumped the third last massively with about a foot to spare but still only ceded best at the last. He wasn't subjected to an all out drive when his jockey saw he couldn't catch Tidal Bay who bounded past him on the run in and increased his advantage by half a length with every stride.
I was impressed with the way First Lieutenant ran here. The way he duelled for so long with Bobs Worth tells me he still has to rank as one of the best three mile chasers. And there's every chance he can do better as his trainer Mouse Morris insists he's better on faster ground in the Spring - something I'm inclined to agree with.
It's very possible that First Lieutenant will lose the Lexus next time and his prep for the Gold Cup. This would mean he could enter the Gold Cup on a losing streak of nine races and be a very big price as a result. However I'd be wary of dismissing his chances in that race because he's run one big race after another, winning two Grade 1's and placing in five others in his relatively short career.
The race I like First Lieutenant for most of all is the Punchestown Gold Cup. He should get good ground for that race and he'll be fresher than most of his rivals because Mouse Morris plans on racing him sparingly till the Spring.
THE PACKAGE (38) ran a bit below his best to take fourth. I suspect he was still feeling the effects of his tough race against Michel Le Bon on his previous start just three weeks before. If he's given a break I can readily see him winning another valuable handicap.
FELTHAM STILL THE RIGHT TARGET FOR DYNASTE
It must be nerve wracking to train one of the best horses, especially when it's still lightly raced and you need to pretty much guess at what circumstances suit it best. You can easily be made to look a fool if you take a chance and run the horse in the wrong conditions.
That said, I think trainer David Pipe was guilty of being what I call an equine hypochondriac when speculating that his long held plan of running DYNASTE (40) in the Feltham Novices' Chase might be in question as some people have told him the horse jumps a little to the left.
I saw no evidence of this during Dynaste's easy win in the Grade 2 Berkshire Novices' Chase at Newbury. He jumped straight and well all the way when maintaining a strong gallop to score full of running in fast time.
Just to be sure I went back and looked at the old video of Dynaste beating the smart Organisateur at Taunton. Taunton is a tight right handed track and Dynaste had every chance to jump out to his left as he led all the way. But he jumped straight as a die there too and hugged Taunton's tight right-handed turns.
Yes Dynaste ran below his best at right-handed Ascot and Sandown. But that was at a time when he was setting too strong a pace to last home on such testing tracks. He wasn't reported to have jumped right in either of those two races or any others come to that.
Most horses have strides of 21-25 feet and there's a sweet spot of only around three to five feet from which it's best to launch themselves over a jump. So it often takes a while for an inexperienced horse to learn to shorten or lengthen their stride in the run up to an obstacle the right amount to ensure they take off from the correct point. Some horse's resort to running down a hurdle or fence to their left or right as a way of arriving at the correct take off point.
This habit is normally restricted to inexperienced novices. On the rare occasion that an experienced horse jumps this way they invariably only win on tracks that turn in the direction they jump - except in races well below their true class level. And to do that they need to be kept to the inner wing of the jump. Watch videos of Poquelin jumping left handed tracks or Captain Chris going right handed and you'll see what I mean.
Dynaste has shown no sign of this sort of behaviour, so I don't see any reason to be concerned about him being asked to jump right handed at Kempton in the Feltham. (Of course now he'll probably go and jump wildly left and lost at Kempton making me look silly.)
VALMARI (36) set a strong pace and jumped well till falling at the fourth last. Watching her jump I began to worry that she was cutting it a bit fine at many of the fences, pinging them at speed while launching herself at the last possible moment. It enabled he to gain ground but I had a horrible feeling she might be in trouble when she came under pressure. Sure enough when Dynaste moved up to press her between the fifth and fourth last she was prompted to speed up and run that section of the race 1.1 seconds faster than they went in the valuable chase for experienced chaser over the same trip. She couldn't quite jump at that speed when beginning to tire and crumpled on landing. I'm betting she’d have finished third and am rating her on that basis.
Horses that can set a strong pace and jump fast are often bests on tight tracks. In this regard it's interesting to note that Valmari has run two times on tracks 11 furlongs or less in circumference and won both times.
BIG BUCK'S AS GOOD AS EVER
BIG BUCK'S (41) had little more than a public exercise gallop when winning the Grade 2 Sportingbet Long Distance Hurdle for the fourth time. Rider Ruby Walsh was able to take five long look backs at his rivals from two out to see if there was any need to ask Big Buck's to break out of a canter. There was no need. Big Buck's was able to slow up to take a leisurely 3.6 seconds longer to get to the line from two out than in the other two hurdles on the card. I'm sure he could have run at least as fast in the closing stages as those other two winners if he'd been asked and I'm rating him on that basis.
This win stretched means that Big Buck's has now won all eighteen times he's run over the standard hurdles used at most British tracks. He doesn't seem anywhere near as good over fixed brush hurdles or fences, having won just five of his twenty tries over those stiffer types of jumps.
Then again it could simply be that all Big Buck's needs is a test of stamina, regardless of the kind of jumps he's facing. After all if he hadn't unseated at the last in the Hennessy he might well have won all twenty times he's run three miles or more.
The connections of Big Buck's were nearly tempted into trying him back over fixed brush hurdles at Haydock instead of running in this race. And a lot of his fans would like to see him given another try over fences. But it looks clear he'll be following his usual program this season as he builds up towards an attempt at winning his fifth World Hurdle. That is the Long Walk followed by the Cleeve Hurdle.
If Big Buck's cut back to two and a half miles he could get beat by Oscar Whisky. He might also get beat if he had to face Tidal Bay on really soft ground. But the only thing that realistically seems likely to beat him at this stage is old age.
THE KNOXS SHOULD WIN A BIG HANDICAP CHASE
BLESS THE WINGS (39) won a valuable 2m 4f handicap chase at Newbury that deserved Garde 2 or 3 status in fast time. I can't say whether he would have held on had The Knoxs not tipped up when disputing the lead at the last. But Bless The Wings is clearly smart.
It seems that Bless The Wings does not get home soft or heavy and is best on galloping tracks. If two photos in hurdle races had gone his way he'd have won five of the six times he's run on galloping tracks when the ground was good to soft or faster. He's more than capable of winning another valuable chase.
THE KNOXS (39) took a crashing fall at the last and lay winded for some time. This is the fourth time in nine chase starts that he's fallen (I'm including his point to point runs). However he has twice returned to win on his run immediately after a fall, so I'm not too concerned that the accident will have dented his confidence.
Like quite a few dodgy jumpers The Knoxs seems best off a break. It also seems clear he's too keen going to last home on very stiff tracks. So far he's won seven of the eight times he's completed the course off breaks longer than five weeks on tracks where the homestraight rises less than thirty feet. So if he can avoid such tracks (Cheltenham, Sandown, Towcester) he's got to be interesting next time he comes into a race off a break longer than five weeks. His official rating understates his ability by around a stone if my numbers are right, so he should be a good bet to win a valuable handicap at some point this season.
Old MAHOGANY BLAZE (39) is one-paced and this explains why he's lost 25 in a row and scored only once in 33 pattern race starts. However he's a strong sort that's always looked like he'd appreciate longer than two miles, and now that he's older he finally seems to stay two and a half miles. In fact he has now run big races three of the last four times he's run two and a half miles plus. Here he nearly got up to win despite being hampered when The Knoxs fell right in front of him at the last. He rallied strongly and failed by only a neck.
Mahogany Blaze's official rating has gone down by thirteen pounds in the last couple of years but this run shows he's as good as ever. I can easily see him winning a valuable handicap chase soon and wouldn't be surprised if it was over three miles in something like the Racing Post Chase.
COUNTRYWIDE FLAME NEEDS TO RUN FASTER
COUNTRYWIDE FLAME (38) clocked only a Grade 3 class time by my reckoning to beat three rivals in a quite strongly run renewal of the Fighting Fifth Hurdle. He won with a fair bit in hand and can presumably run faster. But I would urge caution about his Champion Hurdle prospects on this showing.
I would bear in mind that since See You Then won the Champion Hurdle back in 1985 only one horse as young as Countrywide Flame has taken the big race even though 80 have tried.
Runner up CINDERS AND ASHES (37) was less than two lengths behind the winner jumping the last but was allowed to come home in his own time when it was clear he couldn't catch him. I'm rating him as a two length loser which seems fair to me. Nonetheless this was a bit below his best.
Cinders And Ashes is a bigger-bodied, stronger horse than the winner and will surely go chasing sooner rather than later. His trainer blamed the heavy ground for his defeat. But he won a Grade 2 on heavy ground last season. My feeling is that he probably just needed the run. This was certainly true last season when he improved significantly from his first to his second run.
WINGS OF SMOKE CAN WIN AGAIN
WINGS OF SMOKE (36) was sensibly held up off the very strong early pace when winning an ordinary class 3 handicap chase at Newbury in borderline Listed class time. He was moving easily and obviously going best from a mile out. He made a mistake at the last which made it more of a race on the run in but he was still going so well it didn't matter.
It looks like Wings Of Smoke does not get home on soft or heavy ground or on a stiff track. Otherwise at trips around two and a half miles his record shows three wins from three tries.
ARVIKA LIGEONNIARE IS TOP CLASS
ARVIKA LIGEONNIARE (42) ran almost impossibly fast for a novice when running away with the Grade 1 Drinmore novices chase over two and a half miles at Fairyhouse. He forced all his rivals into jumping errors when taking the first at a speed they found uncomfortable. Their riders all decided to let him go, probably believing he was running too fast to last home.
The speed Arkiva Ligeonniare was going can be seen from the fact that he got from the first to the fifth fence 6.1 seconds faster than they went in the valuable mares handicap chase over the same distance. By the eleventh fence he'd increased that advantage to 11.80 lengths and was a long way clear. He was given a breather at that point which allowed his rivals to close up and reduced his margin over the mares to 7.6 seconds. But he then kicked away again to stretch his edge over the mares to 13.2 seconds before tiring over the last three fences and stopping almost to a walk on the run in. However crossing the line his advantage over the mares was still a monstrous 10.1 seconds. And by then he'd run his rivals ragged and they were too exhausted to mount a challenge.
Arvika Ligeonniare wasn't fully bending his back over the jumps but made no serious errors, and at the speed he was going this was still very fast and accurate jumping for a novice. No doubt he will learn to bend his back over the jumps sometime soon.
Arvika Ligeonniare is a strong, deep chested sort. He looks built to be a two and a half mile specialist but I could see him getting three miles (indeed he was fourth of nineteen in the Albert Bartlett over three miles last season). His pedigree points the same way too. His sire was unbeaten in three tries over jumps in France at around two and a quarter miles and his dam's best previous foal by far was Darastan who won the top steeplechase at France's second biggest jumps track Enghien, the Group 2 Grand Steeplechase d'Enghien over 3m 1f.
However a lot of Arkle winners later prove best over two and a half miles or longer. So I'm not averse to the idea of cutting back Arvika Ligeonniare to two miles next time for the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Indeed the speed he showed here suggests that the shorter trip might well be a benefit to him at this stage.
The one caveat I would add is that Arvika Ligeonniare must take a lot out of himself by running so hard. So I'd be rather confident that, like many short distance chasers, he will prove best on his first two starts of the season and then with breaks of at least five weeks between his completed starts thereafter. His only loss over jumps at less than three miles since leaving France came the one time he wasn't fresh in this way.
In this regard I have to say I'm a little concerned at the post race comment by Willie Mullins about future plans for Arvika Ligeonniare. He said "I will keep running him as much as I can, and get all the experience I can into him." If that entails running the horse back again less than five weeks after his next start I'd be inclined to bet against him. But if he pitches up at Cheltenham off a five week plus break I'd be wary of betting against him in the Arkle. He ran faster here than most winners of that race.
Runner up DEDIGOUT (38) managed to close up briefly to within four and a half lengths of the winner when he took a breather four out. He mounted another effort after the winner had stretched away again to cut the margin to around six lengths by two out. He ended up eleven lengths behind but twenty lengths clear of the rest.
If he hadn't bumped into a brilliant rival here Dedigout would have won six of his seven hurdle and chase starts under rules, with his only loss being a good third in a G2 hurdle to the smart Monksland. He's fast enough to beat most novice chasers at two and a half miles and has shown that he gets longer too.
NOTHING WRONG WITH JEZKI
JEZKI (39) clocked a good time when winning the Grade 1 Royal Bond Hurdle at Fairyhouse. He over jumped the first four flights, a problem he's exhibited in the past, but jumped much more cleanly over the last six. He challenged the front running Champagne Fever approaching for last and did his rival for a turn of foot.
Eleven previous Royal Bond winners have gone on to run in novice hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival. Three of the eleven won - Istabraq, Like-A-Butterfly and Hardy Eustace. Jezki has a long way to go before he can match that smart trio but clearly has a solid chance in the Supreme Novices.
Runner up CHAMPAGNE FEVER (38) set a strong pace but could not match the winner's finishing speed. He rallied however and the planned step up in distance does look a good idea. He does look built for longer trips and should be able to jump a fence in time.
Third placed ZUSKA (38) moved well rounding the home turn and closed all the way up the straight while showing a low head carriage. She won a Grade 3 over 5f longer last time. he has a fast ground action and if she hadn’t hung and made mistake 2 out when beaten 3/4 of a length one time she'd be unbeaten in four starts on good or faster ground. Back over two and a half miles, especially on faster ground, I can see her beating the boys in a top novice hurdle.
ZAIDPOUR HARD TO BEAT IN SMALL FIELDS
The Grade 1 Hatton's Grace Hurdle developed into a tactical affair due to a moderate pace for the first seven furlongs. This clearly suited ZAIDPOUR (38) who came through to lead when Voler La Vedette folded approaching the last and kicked nearly three lengths clear by the line.
Zaidpour has now won six of the eight times he's run in single figure fields over hurdles. In his two losses with nine or less runners he was second by a neck to First Lieutenant and second to Hurricane Fly - both times in Grade 1 contests. Since winning a maiden hurdle in a big field he's lost all five times he's run over timber in fields of ten or more.
Zaidpour can run a bit faster than he had to here. But I can't see him as a realistic threat to Big Buck's in the World Hurdle.
MONKSLAND (37) was held up in last place and tried to run down the winner from the last but made no inroads. He too can run a bit faster than this and did so when encountering a stronger early gallop last season.
The big disappointment of the race was VOLER LA VEDETTE (36) who came through to lead two out travelling like a winner then failed to sustain her effort. Her jockey reported she made a breathing noise. This surely explains why this smart mare has run below her best on both her starts this season. A breathing operation is scheduled for her.
MIDNIGHT GAME SHOULD BE COMPETITIVE IN GRADED COMPANY
MIDNIGHT GAME (36) clocked a Listed class time winning a good conditions hurdle at Fairyhouse. And it looked clear he could have run faster. He was simply cruising along from a mile out and easily made up the five length deficit on the four leaders approaching the turn and running into the straight. In fact his rider sat stock still as he moved forward and didn't ask him for an effort till jumping the last. Once shaken up he rapidly powered away from his rivals to score by seven lengths, full of running.
Last season Midnight Game earned the same rating from me when taking a novice hurdle but got beat 18 lengths plus the three times he tackled Graded company. However trainer Willie Mullins says he is a stronger horse this year, so I'm hopeful he can do better this time around when he's stepped up in class.
Midnight Game is a good moving horse so I'm inclined to agree with Willie Mullins who says he should do better on faster ground. The way he pinged a few of the hurdles at speed was impressive too.
