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Royal Ascot 2020 | Handicappers Blog
24 Jun 20

North lords it over rivals in Prince of Wales’s Stakes
Lord North completed his journey from high-class handicapper to Group 1 winner with a convincing success in Wednesday’s Prince of Wales’s Stakes in a race where the figures stack up quite nicely, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill…

The rain came twenty-four hours too late for runner-up Addeybb and it was no great surprise to see him run a little below his current mark of 122, but the relativity between Barney Roy (pre-race 116) in third and Bangkok (114) in fifth gives a solid foundation on which to base the level of the race, suggesting that Lord North improved 8 lb on his pre-race figure of 116 to a new mark of 124.

That doesn’t quite match the 127 performances of the previous two winners, Crystal Ocean and Poet’s Word, but betters what the likes of Highland Reel (122, 2017), My Dream Boat (120, 2016) and Free Eagle (123, 2015) achieved, whilst matching the winning efforts of The Fugue (2014), Al Kazeem (2013) and So You Think (2012).

Such was the authority of his success and his current rate of improvement, I for one will be disappointed if he doesn’t step up again in the future.

In what was a memorable Royal meeting for John Gosden, Palace Pier took himself to the top of the three-year-old mile category with success in Saturday’s St James’s Palace Stakes. Again, this is a race that looks relatively easy to rate at present with Pinatubo (second) and Wichita (third) running very close to their 2000 Guineas form. On that occasion I had Wichita running to 118 and Pinatubo 116. In the St James’s Palace I have both running to 118, which means Palace Pier improved from 109 to 120 in winning his fourth race from as many starts.

That level is at the top end of recent St James’s Palace winners with 120 being bettered only by Galileo Gold’s 121 (2016) in the previous five renewals, and first 3 performances of 120/118/118 being the best since that same contest’s 121/118/117 during the same period.

Whilst he has run with a good deal of credit in both the 2000 Guineas and the St James’s Palace, it is clear Pinatubo is not showing the same level of form or dominance he displayed as a 2yo. As a result, I have dropped him to a new mark of 120 this week.

The success of Alpine Star thirty-five minutes earlier in the Coronation Stakes is possibly more difficult to rate with the same confidence. Without any doubt she deserves to be considered the best three-year-old filly over a mile in Europe at present, having beat Quadrilateral and Cloak of Spirits further on Saturday than Love did in the 1000 Guineas, but at what level is slightly harder to decide.

I have pencilled in a performance of 119 for Jessie Harrington’s filly but she could easily be at least 2 lb higher using any of the next four horses home as a guide. My doubts stem from the fact that runner-up Sharing had travelled from her native America for the race, whilst Alpine Star was also by far the freshest filly in the line-up as all of the other GB/Irish-trained fillies had run within the previous 13 days – not ideal for Group 1 fillies. My colleague in Ireland, Garry O’Gorman, also has doubts at this stage and has published at 117. Hopefully time will tell us how good she is.

Circus Maximus was one of last season’s leading three-year-old milers and he carried on where he left off with a hard fought victory in the Queen Anne. I had doubts over the apparent improved form (113) shown by Marie’s Diamond when winning at Newmarket previously but he proved it to be no fluke by finishing third here with a heap of 113/114 horses just behind him. As such, I have him reproducing his 113 and have Circus Maximus running to 120, with the progressive filly Terebellum running her best race yet (116) in splitting them.

The handicaps at Royal Ascot are always fiercely competitive and the results last week were largely satisfactory – with one exception!! I am always a little nervous about the Britannia handicap every year as it brings together a group of relatively unexposed three-year-olds and you never quite know what is lurking in the field. This year it was Khaloosy who sauntered home from a horse already due to go up 7 lb from the mark he ran off – as a result I have raised Roger Varian’s colt 17 lb to a new mark of 111 and he must surely head into Pattern race company now?

Gold Cup hat-trick for Stradivarius

Star stayer Stradivarius was simply majestic in landing his third Gold Cup in a row, matching the achievement of Sagaro who also landed a hat-trick of wins in the race in the mid-seventies, writes Matthew Tester…

Stradivarius had always given the impression that he only pulls out what is needed to win. Before this year’s Gold Cup he had won twelve Group races and eleven them had been by less than two lengths. Indeed, his two previous Gold Cup wins had been gained by a length or less. On soft ground that was thought not to be ideal, we were just hoping that nothing went wrong. But something went gloriously right as Stradivarius truly stamped his superiority this time around with a ten-length success.

Frankie had two long looks behind when rounding the bend into the straight, just making sure that nothing was going to catch them napping. Stradivarius strode up to the leader Nayef Road, strode clear of Nayef Road and that was the only horse at the finish who was within eighteen lengths of Stradivarius. It was a WOW moment that lit up this new season.

Nayef Road had finished third in last year’s St Leger and had already shown his well-being at the start of this campaign with a career-best performance when winning the Sagaro Stakes earlier in the month. Eight lengths behind him was Cross Counter, a solid 118 performer at his best. The other five beaten horses were each rated between 110 and 116 before the race. There is no reason to think that Nayef Road has run anything other than a blinder.

Stradivarius now gets a rating of 125. To put that in perspective, the World Thoroughbred Rankings have Yeats at a peak of 122 during a career in which he won an unprecedented four Gold Cups. Fingers crossed that Stradivarius returns to the Royal Meeting in similar form in 2021 when he bids to match that feat.

Third time lucky for Battaash

Battaash’s convincing success in the King’s Stand was the headline performance from the three Group 1 sprints at the meeting, writes Chris Nash…

Battaash didn’t have anything of Blue Point’s calibre to worry about in this year’s King’s Stand (runner-up to that rival in both 2018 and 2019) and he confirmed his status as the leading 5f horse around at present in winning by two and a quarter lengths. He pinged out of the stalls, was immediately hard on the bridle and proceeded to make all. Battaash won well and was much the best on the day without having to be at his dazzling best.

I have him running a figure of 120+, which is a little below his career high of 126 achieved in the Nunthorpe last year. That figure is backed up by the race standards and is also supported by the placed horses – Equilateral (112), Liberty Beach (109) and Tis Marvellous (109). He will almost certainly head to Goodwood next to attempt to win the King George Stakes for the fourth consecutive year. He will have to carry a penalty in that Group 2 contest but the speed favouring track suits him perfectly.

The 6f Commonwealth Cup for three-year-olds was won by Golden Horde, who passed the post one and a half lengths clear of the American-trained Kimari, with a further two and a half lengths back to Ventura Rebel in third. The margins between them at the line would suggest that the winner could be smart and I have rated it a career best for him at 118. That has Kimari running to 111, which is also a personal best for her, and Ventura Rebel at 107. The latter has run to that level previously and helps support my assessment of the race, as do historical standards which suggest a figure of 118-119 for the winner.

Golden Horde is lightly raced and showing progressive form, and may well be tasked with taking on the older sprinters in the July Cup next time out.

In that race he may meet several of the protagonists from the Diamond Jubilee Stakes. In a tight finish, Hello Youmzain hung on by a head to beat Dream of Dreams, with Sceptical just a neck further back in third. The first three arrived at Royal Ascot rated 118, 117 and 116 and would appear to have run to the pound with each other. Further confirmation of that was provided by the next two home, Khaadem and Speak In Colours, who were rated 114 and 110 respectively and have run very close to those figures as well. Rarely does form work out with such close alignment to the pre-race ratings.

Hello Youmzain won the Sprint Cup at Haydock last year and that will likely be a target again this time around, but connections suggested that he may well take his chance in the July Cup first.
 
Handicappers Blog | Red letter day for Teal and Fallon
14 Jul 20


Saturday was a memorable day for trainer Roger Teal and Cieren Fallon as Oxted’s win in the Darley July Cup gave both the trainer and jockey a first success at Group 1 level. Chris Nash assesses the performance…

The July Cup saw a clash of the two 6f Group 1 winners from Royal Ascot three weeks earlier – Golden Horde had won the Commonwealth Cup for three-year-olds and Hello Youmzain the Diamond Jubilee, and both had been given official ratings of 118 after those victories. They headed the market at 2/1 and 9/2 respectively but neither of them could match the performance of Oxted, who was having his first run at the highest level having skipped the Royal Meeting following his reappearance success in the Abernant

Oxted raced handy, led around two furlongs out and got home strongly to record a taking performance and confirm himself a highly progressive sprinter. The Irish-trained Sceptical followed the winner home at a distance of one and a quarter lengths and there was a further neck back to Golden Horde in third, with Khaadem and Hello Youmzain the next two home.

The last ten winners of the July Cup were given figures between 117 and 122 and applying race standards to this renewal suggests a figure in the range of 119-120 for the winner. I went with 120 for Oxted, not only because this form has a really solid look to it but also because he recorded a highly respectable time on what was officially good ground (good to soft in places). The last five renewals of this race had all been run on good to firm ground and his time of 69.59 secs is quicker than that achieved by U S Navy Flag (2018), Harry Angel (2017) and Limato (2016). Oxted had improved on each of his previous three starts (105, 109 & 112) and clearly did so again here. While another substantial step forward next time is probably unlikely, it is still possible that we haven’t yet seen the very best of him given his overall profile.

This assessment of the race has Sceptical running to his pre-race Irish rating of 116 and then figures of 115 for Golden Horde, 111 for Khaadem and 108 for Hello Youmzain. Those three all ran a bit below their pre-race ratings, but the trio had all run well at Royal Ascot so I left them unchanged after this race at 118, 114 and 118 respectively.

Ghaiyyath eclipses Enable

The 2020 Coral-Eclipse looked a strong race on paper beforehand and so it proved with Ghaiyyath once again showing that when he’s good, he’s very good, with the highest rated performance in the world so far this year, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill…

In fact, from a handicapping perspective it is an easy race to rate with all bar runner-up Enable (pre-race 128), running either to or very close to their pre-race ratings. Irish challenger Japan (third) stepped up on his reappearance effort at Royal Ascot and returned to the 122 level he achieved in both the Juddmonte International and Arc last season, suggesting that stablemate Magic Wand (fourth) improved a pound on her pre-race 115. Japanese mare Deirdre (fifth) was a pound off her best of 115 and Regal Reality (sixth) performed to his current mark of 116. All of this leads to a winning figure of 127 for Ghaiyyath, which puts him 2lb clear of Stradivarius at the top of the current list of the World’s Best Racehorse Rankings.

Connections were expecting Enable to need the run and in running to 119, I have her 3 lb below her winning performance in the race last year and 9 lb off her current rating of 128.

Back down at a mile, a new star appeared on the stage in the shape of Mohaather, who made up for his luckless run in the Queen Anne with a convincing success in the Betfred Summer Mile at Ascot on Saturday. For me, the key to the race is the performance of fifth-placed Urban Icon who held a decent position throughout and has never been better than 109 in ten previous starts. As such, I have Mohaather running to 120 and putting himself alongside Circus Maximus and Palace Pier at the head of the European milers at present.

It would be possible to rate the performance higher but to my mind there are a few question marks over those closest to him – runner-up San Donato was having his first run for 14 months and ran just 2 lb off his current rating of 114, Duke of Hazzard (third) was missing the blinkers that had galvanized him last year and was coming off a poor reappearance in the Queen Anne, whilst Lord Glitters (fourth) has now failed to reproduce
his Queen Anne winning form of last year in five subsequent starts.

I am happy with Mohaather on 120 for the moment and he will be a worthy contender for the top mile prizes during the late summer and autumn.
 
Chrome shows his metal in thrilling St Leger
15 Sep 20

The Pertemps St Leger shows that tiny margins and moments make huge differences. After three minutes of battle, less than a quarter of a second separated the first four horses over the line, writes Matthew Tester…

Galileo Chrome gets a rating of 117 for winning a thrilling finish, the same rating given to Logician for winning last year. He is undefeated in four races in 2020, has improved with every run and looks well up to standard for a St Leger winner.

Berkshire Rocco earned a career-high 116 for finishing second. He got his revenge on Santiago (fourth here) who had beaten him in the Queens Vase, the pair of them that day more than eight lengths clear of the field. The Queen’s Vase has thrown up in recent years winners such as Stradivarius and Kew Gardens and has overall proved a wonderful nursery for top class horses since its distance was clipped in 2017 from 2m to 1m6f.

The eye-catcher of the race was Pyledriver who retains the 119 rating that he earned in the Great Voltigeur over two and a half furlongs shorter. There he beat Berkshire Rocco as well as Mogul, an impressive winner of the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp on Sunday.

Pyledriver missed out here by only about one fifth of a second but even so it was his courage that kept him in the fight as his stamina was stretched to its limit. He had every chance a furlong out but then became a bit wayward under pressure, a clear sign that Pyledriver was tiring as his stamina waned. He is still rated as the best horse in the St Leger according to his 12f form.

Stamina was also an issue for others down the field, including Hukum in fifth. His impressive win in the Geoffrey Free last month was over a furlong less and on ground with more give in it. I am still confident that there is more improvement to come from Hukum. We have him running to 112 in the Leger but his 114 handicap mark (achieved at Newbury) remains unchanged.

Champagne Stakes success for exciting Chindit

It seems to have taken an age for the two-year-old season to get going following this year’s delayed start but the autumn Group 1 races are shaping up nicely now. Not only have top-level races already been staged in France and Ireland, including two on the weekend just gone, but Doncaster’s St Leger meeting saw a couple of British-trained juveniles who need factoring into the equation for top honours in the coming weeks, writes Graeme Smith…

The market for the Bet365 Champagne Stakes was dominated by two of the year’s most exciting colts and, along with the Irish challenger State of Rest, the pair enhanced their standing as the front three drew some seven and a half lengths clear of the field. Both Chindit and Albasheer came there travelling beautifully with two furlongs to run, and while the more battle-hardened of the pair emerged victorious both colts look exciting prospects.

Chindit already had a listed success to his name from the Pat Eddery at Ascot, and the strength of that form gave me confidence in the principals’ efforts in the Champagne being as good as they seemed. Chindit’s rating increased by 8 lb to 115, and I gave the Pat Eddery a further retrospective rise. Albasheer has quickly proved himself smart and his opening mark is 112. That’s quite an achievement considering he barely turned a hair and probably didn’t learn much when winning at Doncaster in July on his only previous appearance.

I have State of Rest also improving to a mark of 112, though his official rating is a matter for the Irish handicapper. Incidentally, he looked more of a galloper than the first two to me and an increased test of stamina and/or more positive tactics may see him improve further.

The May Hill Stakes saw John Gosden roll the big dice with Indigo Girl just eleven days on from one of the most captivating debuts of the entire season and the sister to the Group 1 winner Journey found it well within her capabilities. Journey had looked potentially quirky early in her career and it was noticeable that Indigo Girl hung left and appeared to idle once in front, though that could easily just be greenness at this stage.

She’s well worth her place in the Fillies’ Mile. Incidentally, she currently figures on 107 and the median winning rating from the last five Fillies’ Miles sits at 114. The Marcel Boussac was also mooted, and while the 2018 renewal won by Lily’s Candle proved notably weak, the median winning rating for that race sits at 114 too.

Mention of the Bet365 Flying Scotsman all but guarantees repeated airings of the Frankel video, and while it’s hard to imagine any of this year’s crop scaling those heights it had the look of a deep listed race – two of the eleven had been placed in pattern company within the last month and New Mandate and Laneqash drew away in an excellent time.

This was a significant leap forward from New Mandate’s nursery success, acknowledging he’d appeared to have something in reserve that day, and at 108 he’s on the cusp of pattern-winning standard now – 110 has been enough to win the Somerville Tattersall Stakes in three of the last five years. He was notably brave as Laneqash (107) repeatedly hung into his path.

I’m A Believer

Elsewhere on the juvenile scene at Doncaster, the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes saw a close-fought finish between horses at opposite ends of the market, with Nigel Tinkler’s Ubettabelieveit narrowly prevailing over warm favourite Sacred, writes Adam Barnes…

A key feature of this contest was the field racing in two distinct groups, with Ubettabelieveit racing in the larger centre group, while Sacred had just two others for company on the near side. While the tight finish makes it difficult to argue that there was a definite bias as such, the visual impression was that Sacred wasn’t helped by having to make her move largely isolated, in contrast to the winner who enjoyed a nice trail into the final furlong in his larger group. Such was the closeness of the finish, the way the race panned out possibly made the difference on the day.

Such speculation aside, this was still clearly an improved performance from Ubettabelieveit, who appreciated the return to the minimum trip after racing too keenly over 6f on his previous outing. He’s now 3-3 when encountering 5f on a sound surface.

In terms of the level of the race, Ubettabelieveit is now rated 108 (up from 101), which is towards the lower end of the range pointed to by historical standards. It’s worth noting that the time of the race was distinctly moderate, though that was at least partly due to the early pace being slower than par. The proximity of rank-outsider Burning Cash in fourth also raises a slight question mark over the form, though he’s given full credit for this much-improved effort for now, with his rating leaping from 80 to 103. Although Sacred didn’t quite match the form of her Lowther Stakes second, she remains on 108.
 
Including some jumps comment for the first time this season...

Clean sweep for the O’Briens in the Dewhurst
13 Oct 20

You have to go all the way back to 2013 to find the last Darley Dewhurst winner that wasn’t crowned European Champion Two-Year-Old, but in the aftermath of last weekend’s renewal it may be that this year’s title is still up for grabs, writes Graeme Smith…

The fact that this year’s race attracted by far the biggest field since Beethoven beat 14 rivals in 2009 underlined the view that things were all to play for. In event, as is often the case, a couple of Aidan O’Brien-trained colts rose to the occasion as they reversed National Stakes running with Joseph O’Brien’s Thunder Moon, and for the time being at least St Mark’s Basilica sits at the top of the class. His official rating is a matter for the Irish handicapper until the European 2yo Rankings are discussed but my personal view at this stage is that he ran to a figure of 120. The average winning Dewhurst performance from the previous 5 years is 123, and 120 would have been good enough to be crowned Champion juvenile only twice since Grand Lodge achieved that figure in 1993.

St Mark’s Basilica is a half-brother to the 2018 Vertem Futurity and 2019 2000 Guineas winner Magna Grecia and shapes as though he’ll stay 1m himself, but he could well be given more to think about at that trip by his stablemate Wembley. Ryan Moore’s mount got himself into an unpromising position having been slowly away and taken a long time to warm up. Pencilled in at 118, he’d be a very interesting runner if aimed at the Vertem later this month, though his stable will likely have a host of other possibles for that race of course, including the exciting High Definition.

Thunder Moon had shown a good turn of foot when winning a messy National Stakes at the Curragh and he travelled just about best entering the last 2f only to come up at least a couple of pounds short of that performance at 114. The best of the British-trained colts was Devilwala in fourth. He raised his game significantly upped from 6f on his first outing since changing trainer, though whether his position front running against the rail played a part in that remains to be seen.

The Emirates Autumn Stakes has become a serious springboard to better things in recent seasons, with Ghaiyyath and Persian King both on the roll of honour, and One Ruler produced a smart performance in coming home almost two lengths clear of Van Gogh. It’s fair to say the Godolphin-owned colt got a clearer run at things than some, but he nevertheless ran to a figure of 111 and is clearly progressing fast. Incidentally, the listed Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster that One Ruler finished third in on his previous start is looking better by the week – the winner New Mandate was raised to 112 after following up in the Royal Lodge a fortnight ago and runner-up Laneqash has now had his rating raised by 4 lb to 111 collaterally.

Van Gogh looked well suited by the return to 1m in second, getting back to the form he’d shown when chasing home Cadillac in a Group 2 at Leopardstown, and he might have done slightly better still but for having to work to his right to make his run. Megallan’s poor luck was more obvious though, and he’d surely have finished third at worst but for being shuffled right back behind the weakening front runner Qaader. He’s duly been rated third best at 105.

If there was an edge in racing against the rail that would certainly have helped Lone Eagle, who made all in the Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes, but it was hard not to be impressed by his performance either way. My hand-timed sectionals say it was a searching pace he forced. Having first seen Fabilis off, he found plenty to then turn away Recovery Run before galloping on to win by a length and three-quarters and seven lengths.

The Zetland Stakes has had a lot of support in recent years as part of the initiative to promote staying horses and with Group 1 winners Wings of Eagles (finished only fourth), Kew Gardens and Coronet having emerged from the race, it’s clearly reaping dividends. Lone Eagle is a son of Galileo who was bought for 500,000 gns as a yearling. Currently rated 110, he too looks an exciting prospect.

Fillies took centre stage at Newmarket on Friday and the Joseph O’Brien-trained Pretty Gorgeous avenged her Moyglare defeat at the hands of old rival Shale in the Bet365 Fillies’ Mile. In a race run with negative closing sectionals, it became hard work for Pretty Gorgeous as she held on by half a length from the May Hill winner Indigo Girl, but going into the Dip she’d promised to win by a fair bit further having taken over smoothly. In hindsight, she’d shown a lot of speed when eroding Shale’s advantage in the Moyglare before being outstayed and it could be that playing her slightly later will bring even more out of her.

Again, as Pretty Gorgeous is trained in Ireland her official rating is a matter for the Irish handicapper, but I have her pencilled in at 113 in the Fillies’ Mile. Incidentally, even though her score with Shale stands at two apiece from their meetings, my personal view is that Pretty Gorgeous’ two-and-a-half- length defeat of that rival in the Debutante (with Mother Earth the same distance back in third) is about as good a performance in the staying fillies’ division as there’s been all year (I have that at 114). Campanelle also rates around 114 courtesy of her 6f Morny success. That figure would be the joint-lowest for a champion 2yo filly this century were things to finish like that.

Indigo Girl and Dubai Fountain had finished first and second in the May Hill at Doncaster and both raised their game further in the face of a more exacting test of stamina. Indigo Girl now rates at 112 (from 107) while Dubai Fountain’s 110 performance arguably deserves a special mention given she raced closer to the pace than the other principals. The form of the Godolphin Lifetime Care Oh So Sharp Stakes looks some way short of the top fillies at present but that’s not to knock Saffron Beach at all.

Her 101 performance when holding off Thank You Next by half a length reads well considering she’d made her debut less than a fortnight earlier. Jane Chapple-Hyam mentioned a possible trip to Keeneland for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf for her later this autumn, though she’ll likely have to improve at least 7 lb more to finish in the first three there.

McFabulous sparkles in NH curtain raiser

Chepstow’s two-day October fixture signals the start of the core National Hunt season and we got an early look at one of the potential stars of the new campaign as McFabulous dispatched his rivals with ease in the Grade 2 Unibet Persian War Novices’ Hurdle, writes Andrew Mealor…


Five of the seven runners in the Persian War were second-season novices, taking advantage of the rule that allows horses who gain their first success over hurdles in the later months of the previous campaign to retain their novice status in the early part of the new season. That timeslot has been extended this season due to Covid-19 and the change was very much to the benefit of McFabulous who qualified by just a few days having gained his first win on the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] February. That success was followed by a resounding win in the rearranged EBF Final at Kempton just before lockdown, and that form made him the one to beat in the Persian War, even under a 3-lb penalty.

Sent off at 6/4-on in a field of seven, backers of McFabulous never had a moments worry as he travelled strongly to the front three out and barely had to get out of second gear to win by an eased-down three lengths from Courtandbould, who was in turn four lengths clear of One For The Team in third. Historical standards suggest a figure in the mid-140s but the likelihood is that McFabulous is an above-average Persian War winner and I have taken a higher view of proceedings. His new rating of 153 (which includes extra credit for the amount he appeared to have in hand over and above the bare result) is the highest achieved in the race since another Paul Nicholls-trained winner, Silviniaco Conti (also 153), in 2010. The success of McFabulous enhanced an already impressive record in the race for the Ditcheat handler who has now saddled eight Persian War winners in total, including three of the last five.

McFabulous’ novice status expires at the end of November, though connections have loftier plans for him in any case, with a campaign centred around a crack at the Stayers’ Hurdle on the agenda. Newbury’s Long Distance Hurdle is likely to be his next port of call. That race will be a sterner test, both in terms of stamina and ability – 159 is the average winning rating over the last five years- but given the impression McFabulous created at Chepstow, the likelihood is that he can rate higher when opportunity allows. Courtandbould (141 from 135) has quickly developed into a useful novice, having made his hurdling debut only in July, and he stuck to his guns admirably in second, especially as he was a bit keen early on. He holds an entry in the 2m listed novice at Kempton this weekend, though beyond that connections may have an eye on the 21f Hyde Novice’s Hurdle at Cheltenham next month, a race the yard won with Coolanly in 2018. That Grade 2 event could also well be a target for One For The Team (remains on 140) before his novice status runs out at the end of November. His progressive form in handicaps last season – including a fourteen length win on his final start – came over 3m, and this was a highly respectable return over a trip that was probably sharp enough for him.
 
Qipco British Champions Day reflections
20 Oct 20

Ground conditions undoubtedly played a major role in the results on Champions Day, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill…

That point was highlighted in the two championship races I assessed, the QEII and the Champion Stakes, where a combined total of 18 of the 24 runners (75%) ran below their pre-race marks.

The QEII is the more difficult of the two to rate with confidence at this stage and this is reflected in the figures submitted by my colleagues on the World Rankings Committee where there are currently three different levels on the race. At this stage (hopefully there may be further evidence forthcoming before the end of the year as to the worth of the form) I have taken the view that soft-ground loving winner The Revenant has reproduced his pre-race mark of 119, runner-up Roseman (a convincing winner on heavy ground at Newmarket at the end of last year) has improved from 114 to 118, Palace Pier (third, pre-race 126) just hasn’t run his race and surprise package Sir Busker, who has been beaten in his last four handicaps off marks ranging from 102 to 111, has run to the latter rating despite hanging left to the rail.

This level suggests that Veracious in fifth has run to 106, 2 lb below the mark I had her running to under similar conditions last year when fourth in the race, which is no great surprise as she doesn’t appear to be quite the same filly this season. From a historical perspective, a performance of 119 also leaves The Revenant a pound behind King of Change who beat him convincingly enough in last year’s renewal.

The Champion Stakes looks a little more straightforward to assess despite the fact that leading candidates Mishriff (121), Japan (121) and Lord North (123) trailed home in the last three places in the ten-runner field. Soft ground specialists Addeybb and Skalleti fought out the finish, producing career bests for both. I have raised Addeybb 3lbs to a new mark of 125, whilst the progressive runner-up improves from 116 to 121. It was unfortunate that Magical (third, 121) didn’t really get the run of the race and finished best of all in running the fastest final furlong. I suspect she would have finished second had things dropped more kindly for her but doubt she would have beaten the deserved winner.

Sprint glory for progressive Glen Shiel

Whilst Battaash has again firmly stamped himself the outstanding 5f sprinter this season, the 6f division has had a much more open look to it, writes Stewart Copeland…

The Group 1 Qipco British Champions Sprint was realistically the final chance for the contenders to firmly stake their claim to be the top player in that division, but it was not to be. Instead it produced the fifth different winner at that level in Britain this season (sixth when the Prix Maurice de Gheest in France is included).

Oxted and Dream of Dreams lined up with the most pressing claims to bolster their case to head the division, being the only two in the sixteen-strong field successful over 6f at Group 1 level this season. They both came into the race rated 120, courtesy of Oxted’s win in Newmarket’s July Cup and Dream of Dreams success in the Sprint Cup at Haydock.

However, both were usurped on the day by the six-year-old gelding Glen Shiel, who has been a revelation this season since being dropped back to 6f. It was not just a first success for him at Group 1 level, but also landmark victory for his jockey Hollie Doyle and trainer Archie Watson.

Glen Shiel produced a gutsy front running effort at Ascot, rallying gamely after being headed by Oxted over a furlong out. This success firmly franked the much-improved form he produced when runner-up to Dream of Dreams in the Sprint Cup, with both performances now rated at 117.

At the line his closest challenger, a mere nose behind, was the admirable and evergreen veteran Brando. His form this season had been somewhat underwhelming by the standards he had set previously, but he was back to his best at Ascot. That means a rating of 116, the fifth year in a row he has achieved that standard, which speaks volumes for his toughness and enthusiasm for the game.

As for Oxted and Dream of Dreams, both arguably raced too freely – particularly the latter – and it’s fair to conclude that helped neither get home in the testing conditions. They both remain on 120, and with Space Blues also achieving that figure in the Prix Maurice de Gheest, it remains very tight at the top in the 6f division in Europe this year.

Trueshan relishes staying test in Long Distance Cup

In handicapping there is no such thing as being right. There is only being reasonable on the evidence available at the time, writes Matthew Tester…

The Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup is a great example of this as there is so little solid foundation on which to build the ratings. Trueshan was rated 109 pre-race but could reasonably now be as high as 123, or even 127, having won by a wide margin. But how likely is it that for one run on deep ground he is suddenly one of the all-time great stayers?

The first four were each stepping up significantly in trip. Trueshan seemed to relish it but perhaps Fujaira Prince in third did not as he came back to the chasing pack in the final furlong. Search For A Song finished well from the back for second, but she beat Fujaira Prince and Sovereign less easily here than when they all met in the Irish St Leger last month. Morando in fourth had been rated as high as 118 in the past but hadn’t run to more than 109 in his three previous starts this year. Fifth-placed Sovereign’s only highly rated run this year had been when second to Enable in the King George; but it was only a three-runner race and Japan in third clearly had an off day. So, as you can see, there is not an obvious solid starting point when it comes to rating the Long Distance Cup.

Mathematically, Trueshan could have run as high as 127 going through the rating and the weight of Search For A Song (116 in Ireland), but that definitely feels like too big a leap of faith at this stage. For the moment, I have taken the position that Morando has run to the same level as his recent performances. That brings Trueshan a 9lbs rise in the ratings to 118. It is one pound below what Kew Gardens earned last year but ahead of the two winning performances before that – Stradivarius and Order Of St George. It makes Trueshan a real contender for the stayers’ crown next year as long as he can reproduce this form on less deep ground.

On his day Stradivarius is the best stayer we have seen for many years. This was clearly not his day, however. Nor was it his day in the Arc. Both races were run on ground more testing than the going on which he won any of his three Ascot Gold Cups. I am delighted that he stays in training and will have the opportunity to put things right next season, when I am confident that his programme will be aimed at staying races (three of his five previous starts had been over 12f). His rating is unchanged at 125.

Twelve months ago, we were looking forward to a season of rematches between Stradivarius and Kew Gardens who had beat him by a nose in this race last year. Kew Gardens never ran again and has been retired. Now Stradivarius stays in training we are looking forward to 2021 clashes with Trueshan. Bring it on.
 
At the line his closest challenger, a mere nose behind, was the admirable and evergreen veteran Brando. His form this season had been somewhat underwhelming by the standards he had set previously, but he was back to his best at Ascot. That means a rating of 116, the fifth year in a row he has achieved that standard, which speaks volumes for his toughness and enthusiasm for the game.

As for Oxted and Dream of Dreams, both arguably raced too freely – particularly the latter – and it’s fair to conclude that helped neither get home in the testing conditions. They both remain on 120, and with Space Blues also achieving that figure in the Prix Maurice de Gheest, it remains very tight at the top in the 6f division in Europe this year.
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So, Brando went into the race off 107, and came out of it at 116.:) You couldn't make it up - unless it's part of the job to do so.
Also, Dream Of Dreams is a speed horse, and couldn't produce his turn of foot on that ground
 
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I haven't got round to rating the meeting. Maybe if I get a quiet day or two in November I might look back at it but my immediate instinct is to dismiss the vast majority of the form on account of the ground.

I know Simon Rowlands is offering evidence that it wasn't any worse than in previous years but it might be that fewer horses than in those years acted in it this time.

I think Tom Marquand summed things up nicely when he talked about Addeybb (sp?) going through it like it was good ground. I think Doyle said something similar about Trueshan. I think the impressive winners were the only ones not to be inconvenienced by it.

You also wonder how Trueshan didn't win the Ebor after that performance.

I watched the sprint again the other day. Oxted was definitely slowing down in the last 100 yards and Glen Shiel kept on at his own pace. Brando, as I suggested in the longshot thread, has always had a decent run in him despite basically disappointing since being very unlucky not to have run at least second in the July Cup. He could have won just about any race he's contested all season on the basis of this performance and was the only one to make ground from the second half of the pack. Whether he'll ever reproduce it again is another matter but no doubt I'll take the bait at some point next season.

Like I say, my gut says don't set much store by the day's form until we get similar ground again.
 
viking said:
Timeform write up from Cheltenham

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/ios-app/185794?
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I think that will greatly (and pleasantly) surprise Nicholls and the owner. Basically it means any top 3m-3m1f handicap is Frodon's for the taking, especially back at Cheltenham but any course really where good jumping is rewarded.

Edit - just realised we're talking Timeform and not the official handicapper whose new mark for Frodon we'll know in the morning. I reckon he'll go up at least 7lbs.
 
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Frodon has gone up 5lbs, which seems fair enough to me.

He has given 17lbs and a 1½-length beating (value for more because I thought he was idling in the lasts 50 yards but call it a pound for now) to West Approach in a race in which the latter got the perfect scenario to play to his quirks, being smuggled into it off a good pace.

The last time West Approach got that was in the good 3¼ mile handicap here last December when, off 150, he was involved in the exciting finish with Cogry (on his A-game), Rock The Kasbah and Singlefarmpayment, the group 15 lengths clear of the 3/1f, the JP-pwned Onefortheroadtom.

I had West Approach on 156 for that and he probably reproduced it the other day. That would put Frodon on 174 and my ratings are on average for handicappers 5lbs higher than ORs.

Curiously enough, on RPRs he was half a stone shy of his career best, contrary to what Nicholls was saying on Saturday. He was awarded 170 for Saturday on RPRs whereas his career best before that had been the 177 for hacking up here in January 2018 over 2m5f by over 17 lengths from Shantou Flyer in the valuable Grade 3 handicap for which he was raised 10lbs to 164.

He then, in December of that year, went up to 169 for giving Cepage a 22lbs beating in the Caspian Caviar (the Massey-Ferguson to me) ahead of his wins in the Cotswolds Chase and Ryanair for which races he remained on 169.

It looks like the handicapper has taken the view that he can't raise Frodon beyond that first time up when the trainer had said he'd improve for the run and it will be interesting to see how he justifies his rating if and when his blog appears.

My gut says it should be higher. West Approach is very capable on his day and the third was very strongly fancied while the fourth was in form and went off at 4/1f.

I suppose it offers an interesting debate for younger form students. Do you take form at face value pound for pound or do you try to evaluate the effect of how a race pans out tactically in arriving at your ratings?

If you take the latter view then the third and fourth have been over-rated by running in weaker races and have been 'found out' by the class of the two top-weights. If you take the former then you should be rating Frodon some way higher than 169.
 
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Frodon's a funny one and I did lay him on Saturday because I had him down as a dubious stayer based on the way he crawled home in the Cotswold. He is a 170 beast ratings wise but put him in a race over c/d with quality animals rated similar - Santini and the like. He'd have no chance.
 
Euronymous said:
Frodon's a funny one and I did lay him on Saturday because I had him down as a dubious stayer based on the way he crawled home in the Cotswold. He is a 170 beast ratings wise but put him in a race over c/d with quality animals rated similar - Santini and the like. He'd have no chance.
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I agree with this

He can justifiably run to a number but there will be others in the very top class races on a similar mark who are capable of pushing beyond Frodon's ceiling

They won't but could save him for Aintree, PFN has already stated he'll be sending CDO to Punchestown for that Gold Cup
 
Euronymous said:
Frodon's a funny one and I did lay him on Saturday because I had him down as a dubious stayer based on the way he crawled home in the Cotswold.
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I vaguely recall a forum discussion at the time but can't remember if you and I exchanged differing views at the time but I felt Frodon stayed really well that day, idling after going clear and picking up again at the line as Elegant Escape closed in on him. I'm not convinced that was a slow finish either as Frodon wasn't ridden over-vigorously in the final mile and Elegant Escape proved he was a strong stayer in the Welsh National the time before. Frodon was entirely entitled to win that day if he stayed but I didn't back him because I wasn't sure. Instead I backed him ante-post NRNB for both the Gold Cup (33/1) and Ryanair (12/1) safe (in my own mind) that he'd at least place in the former if he stayed and could win the latter if he didn't. I think he's now proved that he does stay.

Euronymous said:
[Frodon] is a 170 beast ratings wise but put him in a race over c/d with quality animals rated similar - Santini and the like. He'd have no chance.
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I think this is an issue worth debating from a handicapping point of view. I'm not saying I disagree but it highlights the possible anomalies of ratings.

If the likes of Frodon, Santini, Al Boum Photo etc are rated within a pound or two of each other, should we be concluding that he would have "no chance". Deep down I probably agree but that's probably because I think Santini in particular can prove much better than his current rating whereas ratings merely reflect measurable performances.

Again, something for younger form students to consider.
 
It’s an interesting debate. I think FRODON is entitled to dine at the top table so I don’t think he’s without chance, particularly since his jumping is so good. That said, there’s a world of difference between bossing around lesser lights and running a race just as you want to and competing against a field full of horses as good if not better than you are. With relentless front running his primary strength he is unlikely to be able to set a pace that has those others in trouble and I think he will be vulnerable to the stronger finishers. On the plus side his jumping must be about the best in the field and that might just set him up to hang on.
 
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reet hard said:
So, Brando went into the race off 107, and came out of it at 116.:) You couldn't make it up - unless it's part of the job to do so.
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I'd consider his 116 laughable and will be thotoughly tested tomorrow. He's supposedly 5lb superior to Dakota Gold, yet receives 5 here. DG beat him around that number of lengths, last time they met, and I'd expect similar here.
 
reet hard said:
I'd consider his 116 laughable and will be thotoughly tested tomorrow. He's supposedly 5lb superior to Dakota Gold, yet receives 5 here. DG beat him around that number of lengths, last time they met, and I'd expect similar here.
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Methinks the OH should have another look.:lol:
 
Pretty short Open meeting update:


Cheltenham glory for game Coole Cody
17 Nov 20

The Grade 3 Paddy Power Gold Cup is the highlight of Cheltenham’s November meeting and this year’s renewal looked fiercely competitive, writes Michael Harris…
There was a good gallop set by the race-fit Coole Cody and he took the prize with a game effort after surviving an early jumping scare. He had an interesting profile coming into the race owing to the provision in place regarding performances in novice chases. Beaten horses in weight-for-age novice chases of class 2 and below cannot have their ratings increased by the handicapper, provided the horse in question has had at least four previous runs over obstacles (hurdles or fences). On Coole Cody’s previous start he had finished a close second behind the 145-rated Southfield Stone in a novice at Cheltenham’s October meeting. That performance looked worth a figure of 142 at the time but his handicap mark remained unchanged on 137, which is the mark he ran off in the Paddy Power. Coole Cody is now up to 143 (+ 6 lb) on the back of his three-and-a-quarter length success over Spiritofthegames, which is very close to his peak hurdle performance of 145 (achieved at this corresponding meeting in 2017).

Spiritofthegames has a remarkable record in Cheltenham handicaps and this was a third second place finish in his last four starts in notable handicaps at the track. He had been beaten off 149 on his previous two starts and I have left his rating unchanged on 148. Al Dancer (remains on 154) has stepped up in trip this season having been campaigned over 2m as a novice and he was staying on up the hill. This was a good run on his first handicap chase start and he shaped like an even sterner stamina test may suit.

Elsewhere in the chasing division, Protektorat put up one of the best novice performances so far this season with a bold jumping display at Cheltenham on Friday. In beating the aforementioned Southfield Stone by 17L, he is now rated 154 and looks set to compete in the top novice races later in the season.

Juveniles taking shape

It’s still very early days as far as the juvenile hurdlers are concerned but the Gordon Elliott-trained Duffle Coat has certainly done his best to lay down an early marker at the top of the division having landed both of the notable early-season juveniles on this side of the Irish Sea, writes Andrew Mealor…

In truth, Saturday’s Grade 2 JCB Prestbury Hurdle wasn’t quite as informative as it might have been with favourite Hell Red (135) clearly not giving his running (pulled up before the last and reported to have made a respiratory noise), though the penalised Duffle Coat still produced an up-to-scratch performance for the race in defeating Adagio by five lengths.

A feature of the Prestbury was the strong pace set by Cabot Cliffs (125) and that very much seemed to suit Duffle Coat who was being nudged along in rear at the top of the hill. He responded generously to pressure to get on top after the last and ultimately score going away. Historical averages and standards point to a figure around the 140 mark for Duffle Coat, and that level also ties in with some of the form already shown by the beaten horses, notably Adagio (130) who had impressed when scoring by seven and a half lengths on his hurdling debut at Warwick just eight days prior.

Third-placed Balko Saint (126) is a potential fly in the ointment having coming into the rated just 113 after a brace of seconds at Newton Abbot and Fontwell, though the latter race in particular was difficult to rate at the time (just four runners, form boosted since) and had probably been undercooked in hindsight.

Unbeaten in four runs, it’s no surprise to see Duffle Coat prominent in the early betting for the Triumph hurdle. The Festival is still a long way off – the last three Triumph Hurdle winners hadn’t even jumped a hurdle in public at this stage of the season – but recent winners of this race do have a creditable record in the big one. Allmankind (2019) and Apple’s Shakira (2018) both made the frame (third and fourth respectively), whilst 2016 winner Defi Du Seuil went on to win a further five races in a stellar juvenile campaign, including completing the Cheltenham-Aintree double.
 
Perpetual said:
Beaten horses in weight-for-age novice chases of class 2 and below cannot have their ratings increased by the handicapper, provided the horse in question has had at least four previous runs over obstacles (hurdles or fences). On Coole Cody’s previous start he had finished a close second behind the 145-rated Southfield Stone in a novice at Cheltenham’s October meeting. That performance looked worth a figure of 142 at the time but his handicap mark remained unchanged on 137, which is the mark he ran off in the Paddy Power.
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The very reason it was on my radar. Watch out for more of these types through the season.
 
Can I ask a silly question? Every one needs once a week at least :) Miss Thicky here again.
Does/do the handicapper(s) take into account jockey comments when assessing/re-assessing a mark?
BBB has been put up 2lbs for finishing second last week whilst losing a shoe ( which he really struggles with - has happened before) and REALLY hated the ground round the back of the course over which it was "hard going", or are they not privy to them. or if they are , they don't take into account?
Thank you.
 
I really don't think they would allow themselves to take jockey comments into account. It would be a dangerous path to start going down.
 
Yet trainers still talk their horses down when they run well. My answer is consciously no, but the power of suggestion may help sometimes.
 
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