Desert Orchid
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Yes, I was going to say the tendency is for jockeys to play down performances or get their excuses in early (and officially) when they're beaten.
The thoughts of the handicappers.
- Thread starter Colin Phillips
- Start date
Maxbet
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Master Tommytucker raised to 157 for his 15L trouncing of Good Boy Bobby, was comfortably beaten by Al Dancer who gave him 6Lb. Al Dancer now looks to be sitting pretty on 154, having not been altered for his run in the Paddy Power.
Maybe the PP form needs to be recalculated DO
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Maxbet
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I think he could actually be Ryan Air material...Caspian caviar then put him away...don't see any sense in disappointing him....He was ridden quite aggressively to fight back in the PP...It would have to be acting worthy of an Oscar to convince the handicapper he was genuinely trying and to drop him...especially in light of Master Tommytucker's boosting.
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He could run in a Ryanair, but I can't see him placing in what is beginning to look like the deepest Ryanair since its inception.
I guarantee Elliott would win a Festival handicap with him if he were sent there right now.
I guarantee Elliott would win a Festival handicap with him if he were sent there right now.
Desert Orchid
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Not MY figures, Maxbet
I talked about how the handicapper would read the race, not how I read it myself!
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Maxbet
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Not MY figures, Maxbet
I talked about how the handicapper would read the race, not how I read it myself!
Am I right in thinking you rate the race higher?
Desert Orchid
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Maxbet
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You better believe it
Would you go lower?
No way
Perpetual
At the Start
Betfair hat-trick for Haydock specialist Bristol de Mai
24 Nov 20
As the heavens opened on Saturday morning ahead of the Grade 1 Betfair Lancashire Chase, there was a sense of inevitability about what was to unfold later in the day, writes Michael Harris…
Bristol de Mai saves his best form for Haydock and under his optimal conditions he put in a sure-footed performance to record his third victory in the Betfair. With last year’s winner Lostintranslation appearing in trouble a long way out as he struggled to cope with the more testing conditions twelve months on, it soon became a two-horse race and Bristol de Mai dug deep to see off a determined challenge from Clan des Obeaux. In terms of ratings, I have left Bristol de Mai on 169, the same figure he ran to when second last year in both the Betfair Chase and Cotswold Chase. Only Cyrname at 170 has bettered that rating so far this season.
Clan des Obeaux performed to 167 on the day but his rating remains unchanged on 171. This was a better performance than when he finished fourth (running to 161) in this race before a first King George success in 2018, and also an improvement on the 164 figure he ran to at Down Royal on his seasonal reappearance last year. He looks to be in great shape ahead of his bid to win a third King George, although this race was run in more testing conditions than he had previously encountered at this time of the year and it remains to be seen if that affects his next performance.
At Ascot, Imperial Aura continued his rise-up the ranks with an authoritative success in the Grade 2 Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase. It looked to be his sternest test to date but he passed with flying colours after a great round of jumping. Although the departure of Black Corton made his task easier, he saw off two good rivals with something in hand. Imperial Aura is now rated 163 which makes him the leading GB performer in the 2½m division so far this season. Open to further improvement given his overall profile, the Ryanair chase looks an obvious long-term aim.
2m hurdle scene hotting up
The Grade 1 Fighting Fifth hurdle – and the expected reappearance of Champion Hurdle winner Epatante – will feature in next week’s blog, but there were a couple of notable races in the 2m division at Cheltenham last Sunday, writes Andrew Mealor…
First up was the Unibet Greatwood Handicap. The race provided a competitive finish with little between the first six at the last before Irish raider The Shunter (+7 lb to 135) stayed on best up the hill to score by three lengths. Conditions were pretty gruelling for the final day of the November meeting (soft, heavy in places) and the emphasis on stamina definitely suited The Shunter who had landed a chase over 21f on his penultimate start.
Ballyandy (157) edged out Tegerek (135) for second and produced just about a career best in the process. Campaigned as a Champion Hurdle contender last season, his form is once again not far off the very best two-milers, and this was a second successive good effort in a notable handicap having finished second to Sceau Royal (158) in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las last month. That race is proving very strong form with Sceau Royal going on to land the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton by over seven lengths, whilst the third home, Buzz, hacked up in a handicap at Ascot last Friday, earning an 11 lb rise (to 148) in the process.
Sceau Royal holds an entry in the Fighting Fifth, and he along with 2019 winner Cornerstone Lad (159) and Silver Streak (158) will hopefully provide some notable opposition to Epatante at Gosforth Park next weekend.
Thirty-five minutes after the Greatwood, For Pleasure (145) put an errant display on his previous start firmly behind him when landing the Grade 2 Sky Bet Supreme Trial Sharp Novices’ Hurdle. Having almost run off the track at Kempton last month, For Pleasure was clearly much happier back on a left-handed course and he soon raced in a big lead as usual. Of the remaining five runners, only favourite Third Time Lucki (140) managed to make headway from three out to chase the winner. He got within two to three lengths at the last but For Pleasure pulled out more on the run-in despite wandering. Other leading novices may have more scope for improvement as the season progresses but For Pleasure has done plenty already, having improved in the region of 40 lbs since landing his first success off a mark of 107 back in July.
24 Nov 20
As the heavens opened on Saturday morning ahead of the Grade 1 Betfair Lancashire Chase, there was a sense of inevitability about what was to unfold later in the day, writes Michael Harris…
Bristol de Mai saves his best form for Haydock and under his optimal conditions he put in a sure-footed performance to record his third victory in the Betfair. With last year’s winner Lostintranslation appearing in trouble a long way out as he struggled to cope with the more testing conditions twelve months on, it soon became a two-horse race and Bristol de Mai dug deep to see off a determined challenge from Clan des Obeaux. In terms of ratings, I have left Bristol de Mai on 169, the same figure he ran to when second last year in both the Betfair Chase and Cotswold Chase. Only Cyrname at 170 has bettered that rating so far this season.
Clan des Obeaux performed to 167 on the day but his rating remains unchanged on 171. This was a better performance than when he finished fourth (running to 161) in this race before a first King George success in 2018, and also an improvement on the 164 figure he ran to at Down Royal on his seasonal reappearance last year. He looks to be in great shape ahead of his bid to win a third King George, although this race was run in more testing conditions than he had previously encountered at this time of the year and it remains to be seen if that affects his next performance.
At Ascot, Imperial Aura continued his rise-up the ranks with an authoritative success in the Grade 2 Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase. It looked to be his sternest test to date but he passed with flying colours after a great round of jumping. Although the departure of Black Corton made his task easier, he saw off two good rivals with something in hand. Imperial Aura is now rated 163 which makes him the leading GB performer in the 2½m division so far this season. Open to further improvement given his overall profile, the Ryanair chase looks an obvious long-term aim.
2m hurdle scene hotting up
The Grade 1 Fighting Fifth hurdle – and the expected reappearance of Champion Hurdle winner Epatante – will feature in next week’s blog, but there were a couple of notable races in the 2m division at Cheltenham last Sunday, writes Andrew Mealor…
First up was the Unibet Greatwood Handicap. The race provided a competitive finish with little between the first six at the last before Irish raider The Shunter (+7 lb to 135) stayed on best up the hill to score by three lengths. Conditions were pretty gruelling for the final day of the November meeting (soft, heavy in places) and the emphasis on stamina definitely suited The Shunter who had landed a chase over 21f on his penultimate start.
Ballyandy (157) edged out Tegerek (135) for second and produced just about a career best in the process. Campaigned as a Champion Hurdle contender last season, his form is once again not far off the very best two-milers, and this was a second successive good effort in a notable handicap having finished second to Sceau Royal (158) in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las last month. That race is proving very strong form with Sceau Royal going on to land the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton by over seven lengths, whilst the third home, Buzz, hacked up in a handicap at Ascot last Friday, earning an 11 lb rise (to 148) in the process.
Sceau Royal holds an entry in the Fighting Fifth, and he along with 2019 winner Cornerstone Lad (159) and Silver Streak (158) will hopefully provide some notable opposition to Epatante at Gosforth Park next weekend.
Thirty-five minutes after the Greatwood, For Pleasure (145) put an errant display on his previous start firmly behind him when landing the Grade 2 Sky Bet Supreme Trial Sharp Novices’ Hurdle. Having almost run off the track at Kempton last month, For Pleasure was clearly much happier back on a left-handed course and he soon raced in a big lead as usual. Of the remaining five runners, only favourite Third Time Lucki (140) managed to make headway from three out to chase the winner. He got within two to three lengths at the last but For Pleasure pulled out more on the run-in despite wandering. Other leading novices may have more scope for improvement as the season progresses but For Pleasure has done plenty already, having improved in the region of 40 lbs since landing his first success off a mark of 107 back in July.
Perpetual
At the Start
Cap Peaks!
01 Dec 20
Cloth Cap became the lowest rated winner ‘going in’ of The Ladbroke Trophy since 1999, writes Martin Greenwood…
Ever Blessed won the last edition of the race in the ‘90s, rated 136 and carrying ten stone. Just over 20 years later Cloth Cap replicated those exact weights and became the first winner to carry bottom weight since Diamond Harry in 2004. However, Diamond Harry was running off a mark of 156 that day, and scored by one and a quarter lengths, while Ever Blessed put three and a half lengths between himself and the second back in 1999. Cloth Cap demolished those winning distances, coming home ten lengths clear – easing down – in impressive style and turned what looked an incredibly competitive race (and market) into a procession.
Sporting cheekpieces for the first time, Cloth Cap jumped his rivals silly and made all, pulling right away from the last while the rest cried enough. It seemed best to race prominently given the runner-up, Aye Right, chased him all the way, confirming his good run in the Charlie Hall was no fluke, while the third, The Conditional, was also never far off the pace.
There is now talk of Cloth Cap being aimed at the Grand National and his new mark of 147 would almost certainly get him in the race at the bottom of the weights. Given his favoured decent ground, a bold show could be expected, especially if he jumps as beautifully as he did at Newbury.
Fighting Fifth cruise for Epatante
Some of the gloss was taken off the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle with a notable non-runner (2019 winner Cornerstone Lad, rated 159) and two early departures, but it was still a taking performance from reigning Champion Hurdler Epatante, writes Andrew Mealor…
The early departures of Not So Sleepy (142) and Silver Streak (158, carried out by the riderless Not So Sleepy at the second) left odds-on Epatante (162) with just three rivals to beat, and in reality the in-form Sceau Royal looked her only realistic danger on paper. He came in with a rating of 158 after wins in the Welsh Champion Hurdle and Elite Hurdle, but even that form left with plenty to find with the Nicky Henderson-trained mare on these terms, rated 4 lb her inferior and having to concede the 7 lb sex allowance.
Small-field races can often be tricky to assess but the result of the Fighting Fifth was more or less as could have been expected given the pre-race ratings. In fact, so straightforward was the result that I didn’t need to adjust the handicap marks for any of the runners after the race.
The confidently-ridden Epatante was still cruising at the last around a length behind Sceau Royal and breezed past on the run-in to score by a very easy four and a quarter lengths, with a further seven lengths back to the two outsiders, Ribble Valley (147) and Voix du Reve (145).
In truth, the Fighting Fifth didn’t tell us anything new about Epatante, who has tasted defeat just once from seven outings over hurdles (when disappointing as favourite in the mares’ novice at Cheltenham in 2019), but events so far this season in the division have certainly cemented her standing as the best 2m hurdler around currently. Ireland’s principal early-season 2m hurdle race, the Morgiana, went to Supreme runner-up Abacadabras, but he only just held off Saint Roi (who was possibly unlucky) and Jason The Militant in a messy finish. That trio will need to improve to challenge Epatante in the big one. She heads to Kempton for the Christmas Hurdle next, but before that the pretenders to her crown have a chance to stake their claims in the Grade 2 International Hurdle at Cheltenham, which may feature the reappearance of last season’s top juvenile Goshen (156).
Thyme Hill stakes his claim for staying honours
The Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle was billed as the race of the season thus far and it didn’t disappoint, writes Gordan Markham…
The ten-strong field (the biggest in the race this century) included the last two winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle, Paisley Park and Lisnagar Oscar, up against potential rising stars Thyme Hill and Persian War winner McFabulous.
Following a prolonged wait at the start with apparently no willing front runner, the pace was steady for the first mile or so, and that may have suited some more than others. At the business end the three main protagonists in the market were virtually in a line jumping the last, producing a good finish.
Thyme Hill was slotted into an ideal position on his first step out of novice company. He always looked like holding his challengers at bay from the last, appearing to have more tactical speed than some of his rivals in a muddling contest. Thyme Hill is now rated 160 (+ 9lb) and is clearly an improving hurdler with the likelihood of more to come given this was only his fifth start over obstacles. The Stayers’ Hurdle is the obvious long-term target, and he now vies for favouritism for that race with Paisley Park.
The latter was on a retrieval mission following his below par effort in last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle (when suffering from an irregular heartbeat) and this performance was much more in keeping with his previous form. He had to concede 3 lb to Thyme Hill in this Grade 2 contest and comes out of the race with plenty of credit, performing to 161 on the day in a race which possibly didn’t suit him quite as well as the winner. A mark of 165 still leaves him as the one to beat in the division.
McFabulous lost nothing in defeat on his first start in open company, holding every chance jumping two out before his run levelled off from the last on his first start over 3m. His rating has risen to 154 (+ 1lb).
Lisnagar Oscar (159, -1 lb) had the benefit of a run (fourth in the West Yorkshire Hurdle) but became readily outpaced from two out. He looks ideally suited by an out and out stamina test and will no doubt have his say come March given that race should be run more in his favour.
All roads will lead to Cheltenham for the majority of these but Ascot’s Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle (won in 2019 by Paisley Park) is only three weeks away, and that race could see a quick rematch between several, including the front two.
01 Dec 20
Cloth Cap became the lowest rated winner ‘going in’ of The Ladbroke Trophy since 1999, writes Martin Greenwood…
Ever Blessed won the last edition of the race in the ‘90s, rated 136 and carrying ten stone. Just over 20 years later Cloth Cap replicated those exact weights and became the first winner to carry bottom weight since Diamond Harry in 2004. However, Diamond Harry was running off a mark of 156 that day, and scored by one and a quarter lengths, while Ever Blessed put three and a half lengths between himself and the second back in 1999. Cloth Cap demolished those winning distances, coming home ten lengths clear – easing down – in impressive style and turned what looked an incredibly competitive race (and market) into a procession.
Sporting cheekpieces for the first time, Cloth Cap jumped his rivals silly and made all, pulling right away from the last while the rest cried enough. It seemed best to race prominently given the runner-up, Aye Right, chased him all the way, confirming his good run in the Charlie Hall was no fluke, while the third, The Conditional, was also never far off the pace.
There is now talk of Cloth Cap being aimed at the Grand National and his new mark of 147 would almost certainly get him in the race at the bottom of the weights. Given his favoured decent ground, a bold show could be expected, especially if he jumps as beautifully as he did at Newbury.
Fighting Fifth cruise for Epatante
Some of the gloss was taken off the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle with a notable non-runner (2019 winner Cornerstone Lad, rated 159) and two early departures, but it was still a taking performance from reigning Champion Hurdler Epatante, writes Andrew Mealor…
The early departures of Not So Sleepy (142) and Silver Streak (158, carried out by the riderless Not So Sleepy at the second) left odds-on Epatante (162) with just three rivals to beat, and in reality the in-form Sceau Royal looked her only realistic danger on paper. He came in with a rating of 158 after wins in the Welsh Champion Hurdle and Elite Hurdle, but even that form left with plenty to find with the Nicky Henderson-trained mare on these terms, rated 4 lb her inferior and having to concede the 7 lb sex allowance.
Small-field races can often be tricky to assess but the result of the Fighting Fifth was more or less as could have been expected given the pre-race ratings. In fact, so straightforward was the result that I didn’t need to adjust the handicap marks for any of the runners after the race.
The confidently-ridden Epatante was still cruising at the last around a length behind Sceau Royal and breezed past on the run-in to score by a very easy four and a quarter lengths, with a further seven lengths back to the two outsiders, Ribble Valley (147) and Voix du Reve (145).
In truth, the Fighting Fifth didn’t tell us anything new about Epatante, who has tasted defeat just once from seven outings over hurdles (when disappointing as favourite in the mares’ novice at Cheltenham in 2019), but events so far this season in the division have certainly cemented her standing as the best 2m hurdler around currently. Ireland’s principal early-season 2m hurdle race, the Morgiana, went to Supreme runner-up Abacadabras, but he only just held off Saint Roi (who was possibly unlucky) and Jason The Militant in a messy finish. That trio will need to improve to challenge Epatante in the big one. She heads to Kempton for the Christmas Hurdle next, but before that the pretenders to her crown have a chance to stake their claims in the Grade 2 International Hurdle at Cheltenham, which may feature the reappearance of last season’s top juvenile Goshen (156).
Thyme Hill stakes his claim for staying honours
The Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle was billed as the race of the season thus far and it didn’t disappoint, writes Gordan Markham…
The ten-strong field (the biggest in the race this century) included the last two winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle, Paisley Park and Lisnagar Oscar, up against potential rising stars Thyme Hill and Persian War winner McFabulous.
Following a prolonged wait at the start with apparently no willing front runner, the pace was steady for the first mile or so, and that may have suited some more than others. At the business end the three main protagonists in the market were virtually in a line jumping the last, producing a good finish.
Thyme Hill was slotted into an ideal position on his first step out of novice company. He always looked like holding his challengers at bay from the last, appearing to have more tactical speed than some of his rivals in a muddling contest. Thyme Hill is now rated 160 (+ 9lb) and is clearly an improving hurdler with the likelihood of more to come given this was only his fifth start over obstacles. The Stayers’ Hurdle is the obvious long-term target, and he now vies for favouritism for that race with Paisley Park.
The latter was on a retrieval mission following his below par effort in last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle (when suffering from an irregular heartbeat) and this performance was much more in keeping with his previous form. He had to concede 3 lb to Thyme Hill in this Grade 2 contest and comes out of the race with plenty of credit, performing to 161 on the day in a race which possibly didn’t suit him quite as well as the winner. A mark of 165 still leaves him as the one to beat in the division.
McFabulous lost nothing in defeat on his first start in open company, holding every chance jumping two out before his run levelled off from the last on his first start over 3m. His rating has risen to 154 (+ 1lb).
Lisnagar Oscar (159, -1 lb) had the benefit of a run (fourth in the West Yorkshire Hurdle) but became readily outpaced from two out. He looks ideally suited by an out and out stamina test and will no doubt have his say come March given that race should be run more in his favour.
All roads will lead to Cheltenham for the majority of these but Ascot’s Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle (won in 2019 by Paisley Park) is only three weeks away, and that race could see a quick rematch between several, including the front two.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I'm not sure what you can expect the handicappers to do, DJ.
VLR has won a competitive (beforehand) handicap by a very wide margin and LVL has beaten seemingly superior horses who appeared to run their race.
This is where the handicappers give form students a chance. We now know we can rule VLR out of any handicaps for a while but LVL's race needs a wee bit more research to see if he has genuinely improved or whether the others under-performed.
VLR has won a competitive (beforehand) handicap by a very wide margin and LVL has beaten seemingly superior horses who appeared to run their race.
This is where the handicappers give form students a chance. We now know we can rule VLR out of any handicaps for a while but LVL's race needs a wee bit more research to see if he has genuinely improved or whether the others under-performed.
barjon
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K
Since LVR is one of the horses Hemmings retained after his dispersal he is clearly one well thought of which favours improvement?
Since LVR is one of the horses Hemmings retained after his dispersal he is clearly one well thought of which favours improvement?
Maxbet
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Santini and Native River both ran below (6 to 8Lb) their form, the winner has improved, He did win the Rowland Merrick in a canter carrying top weight and has run to a similar mark here... of the three, he seemed to relish the conditions whilst the other two, you could plainly see that they were not enjoying themselves!
Regarding Santini, I think Hendo is frightened he'll bust this horse just getting him fit...hence the kid gloves..
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Desert Orchid
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It will be very interesting to see how the handicapper reacts to Chatham Street Lad's win today.
A very tight looking handicap beforehand has been shot to pieces with margins the like of which you might expect in a heavy-ground Midlands National.
I imagine a minimum of 15lbs will be the hike (which would take him up to 156) but he looked better than a handicapper. He looked more like a mid-160s animal to me.
Take him out of the equation and Midnight Shadow would have been a deeply impressive winner in his own right, probably looking like a 12lbs hike would be not unreasonable so anything less than a 5lbs rise would make him attractively handicapped going forward.
We'll see...
A very tight looking handicap beforehand has been shot to pieces with margins the like of which you might expect in a heavy-ground Midlands National.
I imagine a minimum of 15lbs will be the hike (which would take him up to 156) but he looked better than a handicapper. He looked more like a mid-160s animal to me.
Take him out of the equation and Midnight Shadow would have been a deeply impressive winner in his own right, probably looking like a 12lbs hike would be not unreasonable so anything less than a 5lbs rise would make him attractively handicapped going forward.
We'll see...
Indeed. However, If he were mine I'd be tempted to see what the handicapper does and target another handicap, even off a much higher mark.
He'd take all the beating in another handicap at present, and I'd just be a bit reluctant to take on a much more experienced horse like Imperial Aura.... but what do I know lol.
Out of curiosity what's the right handicap for him at the festival, I think its the Brown Advisory plate over 2M5F isn't it?
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Maxbet
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Unbeaten in handicaps!
As long as it's not the RSA! I see Hills price him at 16s for that.
Absolutely spot on.
Desert Orchid
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New ORs, for those interested:
Shan Blue 152 (no change)
Silver Streak 163 (+5)
Epatante 161 (-1)
Frodon 169 (+1)
Waiting Patiently 167 (+4)
Shan Blue 152 (no change)
Silver Streak 163 (+5)
Epatante 161 (-1)
Frodon 169 (+1)
Waiting Patiently 167 (+4)
Kevin Blake has posted some interesting thoughts on his attheraces blog on the national hunt programme. His solution is for far less condition races in order to prevent too many small runner fields with short priced favourites and force the best horses to meet more often. I agree on what the problem is and think the solution lies in not only converting several races (back) to handicaps and using this prize money better, but also changing the nature of these top grade handicaps.
Instead of trying to give every horse the same chance of winning (which isn't what is being achieved anyway), why not give the better horses an advantage but one that is diminished compared to condition races.
Put more money into the top handicaps (as well as boosting a series of 0-140 handicaps a bit as a consolation for lesser horses) and then for every 3 pounds over a 140 rating for chases (130 for hurdles) a horse carries 2 extra pounds on raceday.
So a 170 rated chaser would run off an effective mark of 160 in handicaps. The historic races such as the Tingle Creek, King George and Gold Cup would remain level weights but many others such as the 2m January Ascot chase (Clarence House/Victor Chandler) would be handicaps with significant prize money, which combined with the new method of handicapping would hopefully give us some compelling races.
My full plan is more detailed but that is the bare bones of it and i think it would be a massive improvement on the status quo in terms of the spectacle whilst also rewarding the best horses appropriately such that the sales side of the industry remains viable.
What do people think?
Instead of trying to give every horse the same chance of winning (which isn't what is being achieved anyway), why not give the better horses an advantage but one that is diminished compared to condition races.
Put more money into the top handicaps (as well as boosting a series of 0-140 handicaps a bit as a consolation for lesser horses) and then for every 3 pounds over a 140 rating for chases (130 for hurdles) a horse carries 2 extra pounds on raceday.
So a 170 rated chaser would run off an effective mark of 160 in handicaps. The historic races such as the Tingle Creek, King George and Gold Cup would remain level weights but many others such as the 2m January Ascot chase (Clarence House/Victor Chandler) would be handicaps with significant prize money, which combined with the new method of handicapping would hopefully give us some compelling races.
My full plan is more detailed but that is the bare bones of it and i think it would be a massive improvement on the status quo in terms of the spectacle whilst also rewarding the best horses appropriately such that the sales side of the industry remains viable.
What do people think?