The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)

Ah the Champion Hurdle thread
Everything's feels right when the Champipn Hurdle thread is running :)
TNO won't be winning the CH, I for one think he will be all out to win today
 
come on lads..i said 12+ month ago TNO were no CH hoss..to say it now is stating the bleedin obvious:)

there will still be some though........just don't..he aint' got 2m championship gears..never has had
 
Faugheen is unbeatable based on the established and emerging talent, and the fact Douvan appears to be going novice-chasing.

In the expectation that only injury can stop him, I've had a few small bites at Quick Jack at 140+, as one who is still unexposed relative to most likely candidates, and who may be able to improve his way into CH calculations if it was a bad race.....but Faughen wins, if turning-up fit and well.
 
Rather you than me with that bet Grass
Peace & Co is exciting,But yes of course Faugheen wins if fit and well
 
Faugheen is of course the likely winner. Arctic Fire for sure would have ran him close if there was more pace on. He would be reliant on that though to trouble the fav.
 
Grasshopper said:
Quick Jack at 140+, as one who is still unexposed relative to most likely candidates, and who may be able to improve his way into CH calculations if it was a bad race.....but Faughen wins, if turning-up fit and well.
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even without Faugheen this won't be nowhere near as weak CH as `07 or `13 renewals having Nichols Canyon, Arctic Fire, Hargam, Top Notch & MTOY involved in it. If you add on top of this Faugheen and the best juvenile hurdle in like 20 years in P&C then its surely going to be a vintage renewal. Quick Jack would be good to relate with flat form being only 3/4 len. behind Trip to Paris(who just got into 2nd down under in the Caulfield Cup) and beat Max Dynamite by 2 len. giving him 3 lbs.. but that form will not be enough in open grade 1 hurdle races, especially in the CH assuming he'll be entered there.
 
Peace and Co if reports are correct... could pick Faugheen up and carry him.

Rated higher by NJH than SYT and in a different league to MTOY he will surely win the CH?
 
Aughex said:
even without Faugheen this won't be nowhere near as weak CH as `07 or `13 renewals having Nichols Canyon, Arctic Fire, Hargam, Top Notch & MTOY involved in it. If you add on top of this Faugheen and the best juvenile hurdle in like 20 years in P&C then its surely going to be a vintage renewal. Quick Jack would be good to relate with flat form being only 3/4 len. behind Trip to Paris(who just got into 2nd down under in the Caulfield Cup) and beat Max Dynamite by 2 len. giving him 3 lbs.. but that form will not be enough in open grade 1 hurdle races, especially in the CH assuming he'll be entered there.
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The best JH in 20 years......miss Cheltenham did you?
 
Aughex said:
even without Faugheen this won't be nowhere near as weak CH as `07 or `13 renewals having Nichols Canyon, Arctic Fire, Hargam, Top Notch & MTOY involved in it. If you add on top of this Faugheen and the best juvenile hurdle in like 20 years in P&C then its surely going to be a vintage renewal. Quick Jack would be good to relate with flat form being only 3/4 len. behind Trip to Paris(who just got into 2nd down under in the Caulfield Cup) and beat Max Dynamite by 2 len. giving him 3 lbs.. but that form will not be enough in open grade 1 hurdle races, especially in the CH assuming he'll be entered there.
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All doubts are obviously reflected in the prices I've taken.
 
Tanlic said:
The best JH in 20 years......miss Cheltenham did you?
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Ground favoured Top Notch and P&C was only fully asked for efforts after last hurdle. He is the best juvenile for at least 20 years and he'll be the reason why Faugheen will be forced to run and reach an 180+ rating, hopefully.
 
Aughex said:
Ground favoured Top Notch and P&C was only fully asked for efforts after last hurdle. He is the best juvenile for at least 20 years and he'll be the reason why Faugheen will be forced to run and reach an 180+ rating, hopefully.
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P&C was alright..nowhere near the performance that Our Conor put in though imo..P&C looks to me like will need further to show best as well. I don't see him as CH winner
 
Thing is with TNO, he's out there already performing, and he has options of the World Hurdle or the 2 1/2 mile hurdle as well.
 
FWIW, Timeform rate P&C 161P in Chasers & Hurders. His awarded mark is short of what Our Conor (h165p) and Jair Du Cochet (h163) were given in their juvenile seasons, but Timeform strongly express in the essay that they expect there to be plenty more to come.

Mind you, they said that about Our Conor too.
 
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EC1 said:
P&C was alright..nowhere near the performance that Our Conor put in though imo..P&C looks to me like will need further to show best as well. I don't see him as CH winner
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Our Conor was impressive that day but he beat trees and the 2 main opponents in Diakali and Rolling Star failed to give their true runnings, the former only 5 len. behind him lto and the latter pulled too hard for his own good and ran no sort of race. P&C even though not very flashy if you take out the previously undefeated Top Notch and a very good horse in Hargam he's ahead of the subsequently Aintree juvenile runner-up Devilment by the same 15 lengths that Our Conor was ahead of Far West who's not in the same league as Devilment or Petite Parisienne who was 7 lengths back.

Much stronger form and maybe if he'll meet Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle we'll get that 180+ rating then because after that Mullins will again give Faugheen a 3 months break(as per Patrick's latest podcast on Final furlong) which means he'll again come unfit to race at Chelt and will rely on his class to get him through, at least on Boxing day Faugheen will be fit to achieve that high rating against a horse like P&C.
 
You can't really tell how good juveniles are, until they've raced outside their own age-group, and Aintree juvenile form is generally for treating with a degree of caution.
 
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Grasshopper said:
FWIW, Timeform rate P&C 161P in Chasers & Hurders. His awarded mark is short of what Our Conor (h165p) and Jair Du Cochet (h163) were given in their juvenile seasons, but Timeform strongly express in the essay that they expect there to be plenty more to come.

Mind you, they said that about Our Conor too.
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I usually trust & rely on TF ratings, but only in handicaps. In higher rated races they tend to exaggerate their ratings for commercial reasons or decrease ratings based on unknown factors. For instance they rated Faugheen performance in his Punchestown CH only 160 and by doing that they made 2 incredible assumptions, 1. that AF ran 20 lbs below what he ran at Chelt and Leop in the CHs(why they think that AF regressed so much is an big unknown), 2. that Tiger Roll underperformed to his lowest mark since his maiden win(why they think TR regressed so much is an unknown and they don't provide any explanation)

On Flat they're doing this commercial thing even more blatantly, an example at the highest level would be American Pharoah which they rated 136+ in the Haskell stakes and their reason was that he was eased down alot in the last furlong, after me and others made this observation on public domain and AP subsequently got beat they lowered that to 134+ and now I see its at 130+ with his master rating at 134. Compare this shamble with the way they looked at Frankel's rating in the Juddmonte, when it was clear that the horse wasn't asked for full extent and they came out with an 145+ rating and they said that they never add pounds to ratings even on visual impression but that they thought he could've ran to the same 147 that he did in the QA. So for Frankel they couldn't make an assumption for adding 2 pounds based on purely visual imp. but with horses like American Pharoah rated around 130 they can? Why? My guess like I've said above is for commercial reasons.
 
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If you take it as a gimme that Faugheen goes to kempton, where will Henderson send his lot for a prep.

i heard what PM had to say about Faugheen prep but no reason he couldn't take in a prep before March
 
Whatever happens, we'll have a good yardstick in Faugheen who beat previous winners last year and an improving horse in Arctic Fire. If Peace and Co does beat him, he'll certainly be decent.
 
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