The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)

[clivex]

He was on the bridle until the last and the ground was against him.

TNO isn't a top drawer two miler because he hasn't the pace to keep up in a championship event. P&C travels Harchibald like in contrast.

but kept up with a fast run Christmas hurdle against Mtoy who quite frankly he would have beaten but for the last. This stuff is exaggerated as it is about pandc now. Plenty of chs have gone to horses that were top level at 2m 4f too. Brave inca anyone? Hardy euse ace? Faugheen?

Its ts become a boring argument. I personally worry more about a horse not getting the hard run trip than the other way round

 

[Grasshopper]

If Tent has retained his ability then he can run all over the back of Faugheen. Now the ifs, he can settle, and say bring it on when push comes to shove. All are debatable.

MTOY has got no bottle - he would dog it against a stout yoke like Faugheen.

 

[EC1]

but kept up with a fast run Christmas hurdle against Mtoy who quite frankly he would have beaten but for the last. This stuff is exaggerated as it is about pandc now. Plenty of chs have gone to horses that were top level at 2m 4f too. Brave inca anyone? Hardy euse ace? Faugheen?

Its ts become a boring argument. I personally worry more about a horse not getting the hard run trip than the other way round

to be fair Clive,,unless the the horse starts to speak and actually says..don't ask me to win a CH again..i doubt you or the only other person on the planet..NTD..who thinks he will...you will just keep the blind faith...he's a World Hurdle horse ..always has been.

its a bit like the beef or salmon GC game..we used to play it every year..every year folk still thought he would win it..even when in racing terms the writing was on the wall from very early on

some people need too many examples before they can access a horse imo..this game don't really allow that..once it starts getting to years passing i think logic does have to take over

 

[clivex]

to be fair Clive,,unless the the horse starts to speak and actually says..don't ask me to win a CH again..i doubt you or the only other person on the planet..NTD..who thinks he will...you will just keep the blind faith...he's a World Hurdle horse ..always has been.

its a bit like the beef or salmon GC game..we used to play it every year..every year folk still thought he would win it..even when in racing terms the writing was on the wall from very early on

some people need too many examples before they can access a horse imo..this game don't really allow that..once it starts getting to years passing i think logic does have to take over

ill just for one more time state why your analysis is hopeless

he all but won a 2m hurdle at a sharp track against a 2 miler of the very best class. Probably the second best hurdle of the season. One run at a rate with a spread out field. There is no way that a horse unsuited to the distance can do that . Ok?


You analysis of his narrow defeat in the ch was down to the laughable claim that being hampered has no effect on a a horses run.

I backed johns spirit last week . Early good price too. He should have coasted home shouldn't he? I mean all "that energy he saved"

as as for now , never once have I claimed he should not go for world hurdle this season. Horses do go better for lomger distances as they age . Know that ?? And with faugheen about and weakish stayers field then it would make sense

but ultimately ntd knows the horse far better than anyone here will ever hope to do .

 

[EC1]

my analysis is hopeless..but its you that bets him to win Champion Hurdles..aye

again..you keep harping on about what he lost..have you actually watched the race since?..i did numerous times and he "lost" 2 lengths early doors...as usual you use an extreme example with JS to try and make a flawed point

anyone that blames a 2 length loss early in a 2 mile race for a defeat is just unwilling to accept they got it wrong imo..pocket chat

i'll use an extreme example same as you....how much ground did that one McCoy was on lose at Haydock that day?..when it pulled itself up..let the whole field pass it..and it still won..lost about 30+ lengths

as incredible as that McCoy one was..if it had lost 30 lengths coming into the straight..then it would have been a little difficult to pull it back..as it was..it happened early in the race so at least had time to make it back

what happened to TNO was way too early and slight in relation to a 2 mile race..it isn't worth using an excuse tbh

When NTD wins a CH with it..you can then say he knows the horse better than anyone else..until then..he's guessing like most folk do as watching it run round at home is a lot different to what a horse does in a race..we all see the races...we all take a view..mine is ..he isn't a CH horse..and i took that view a very long time ago without watching the horse gallop at home or tucking him up in bed every night

 

[Frankel]

MTOY has got no bottle - he would dog it against a stout yoke like Faugheen.

Yep, which is kind of what I was hinting at. Unless in that year off he's had some SAS training to toughen the softy up.
He will though possibly at least make it appear turning for home that he's out for a hack thus making the poor in running punters counting the cost.

 

[clivex]

my analysis is hopeless..but its you that bets him to win Champion Hurdles..aye

again..you keep harping on about what he lost..have you actually watched the race since?..i did numerous times and he "lost" 2 lengths early doors...as usual you use an extreme example with JS to try and make a flawed point

anyone that blames a 2 length loss early in a 2 mile race for a defeat is just unwilling to accept they got it wrong imo..pocket chat

i'll use an extreme example same as you....how much ground did that one McCoy was on lose at Haydock that day?..when it pulled itself up..let the whole field pass it..and it still won..lost about 30+ lengths

as incredible as that McCoy one was..if it had lost 30 lengths coming into the straight..then it would have been a little difficult to pull it back..as it was..it happened early in the race so at least had time to make it back

what happened to TNO was way too early and slight in relation to a 2 mile race..it isn't worth using an excuse tbh

When NTD wins a CH with it..you can then say he knows the horse better than anyone else..until then..he's guessing like most folk do as watching it run round at home is a lot different to what a horse does in a race..we all see the races...we all take a view..mine is ..he isn't a CH horse..and i took that view a very long time ago without watching the horse gallop at home or tucking him up in bed every night

for christsake ec.. Wichita linesmans was an extreme example

does anyone seriously watch their horse badly hampered in a race and believe it makes no difference to their chance?

 

[marbler]

He is long odds-against to win the CH next March (and rightly so) but TNO could shorten up in the run-up if he could beat some decent opposition (Faugheen excluded).

Whilst EC1 is a fantastic contributor to this forum his views on those with different opinions on TNO are distasteful and based around a low common denominator which is, 'I was right and you was wrong so I'm better than you and therefore can you shut your hole or apologise please'..imo

 

[Grasshopper]

Forget the 2014 race. Surely the 2015 Champion Hurdle exposed TNO thoroughly, in terms of ability to win the race?

Simple fact is that, of all the principals in the 2015 event, he was the first off the bridle, because she lacks the tactical pace needed at the business-end. Beating trees and running MTOY to a sh-hd in an otherwise tin-pot Xmas Hurdle proves very little in the context of the Cheltenham race, and the likelihood is that NTD has absolutely no clue what else to do with him, if he has written off the staying events (stupid, in my view, but his and the owner's prerogative, I suppose).

Regardless, just because connections are aiming at the Champion, it does not improve his chances of winning it one iota. With Faugheen taking out almost 50% of the market, there simply have to be better options than TNO, if you really must oppose the jolly.

 

[clivex]

Bit tiresome too being told I stated something which I never came close to doing. Fwiw I barely backed him last time anyway given the impression faugheen had made beforehand.

four runners? Funny I thought there were six . The same as faugheens Christmas hurdle as it hapoens and unlike that one... One genuine rival

you can say it means nothing but then you can say that about every race up to Cheltenham cant you? You have to work with something ffs. There was absolutely no reason not to take a positive view of it at the time

 

[marbler]

With Faugheen taking out almost 50% of the market, there simply have to be better options than TNO, if you really must oppose the jolly.

I take the view the best option is backing TNO to beat one of the other principles in the trials as I could see there potentially being a bit of value in his price and personally I think there is one big race in him at some point (just not against Faugheen or in the CH).
I think it's plausible, but as you said based on the most important piece of form which was in March 2015 he can't win a CH.

 

[EC1]

Whilst EC1 is a fantastic contributor to this forum his views on those with different opinions on TNO are distasteful and based around a low common denominator which is, 'I was right and you was wrong so I'm better than you and therefore can you shut your hole or apologise please'..imo

if the only time you are going to respond to any of my posts is in the purposeful negative and filled with nonsense like the above and your sad post on the RP trophy thread..then don't bother. i argued my corner..others do the same..thats what the board is about..put me on ignore..i'm tired of reading your unnecessary rudeness

 

[reet hard]

but ultimately ntd knows the horse far better than anyone here will ever hope to do .

Also knows that TNO'll likely garner more prize money winning tinpot 2milers than cleaning up over further. Has as much chance of winning a CH as Grassy coming to his senses over MTOY.

 

[Digger]

No need guys... can we please not have threads falling into this handbag crap again. Its NH and we don't need any of this pish. Marble go to your room. EC1 you are older and should know better.

 

[EC1]

i'm here to debate the horses Digger..you will have no pish from me..there was no need for that post he made though..and if he aimed it at anyone else on here they would also have responded....my contributions to this thread through the years have aided its cause imo..no reason for that to change

i appreciate your sentiments though..lets just talk horses..good name for a forum that

 

[granger]

right

different angle

But of all the horses who are likely to run in the CH come March, who do you think is most likely to go novice chasing in 2016/2017

I am delighted to see Kitten Rock going over the big obstacles this term, hoped during last years CH, that he would

 

[Smarty72]

Not sure if entering this debate about TNO is safe but hey here's my view.

TNO has run twice already in the Champion Hurdle finishing 3rd in 2014 and 5th in 2015. Going for another attempt in 2016. But who has won there 1st Champion Hurdle at the 3rd attempt, no one in recent times! Is the TNO capable of winning, IMO no! Capable of a good performance, IMO yes! But does not look a likely winner! Rich pickings to be had on the way and would be no surprise if he makes Cheltenham unbeaten the same as last year.

Difficult to look beyond last years Impressive winner but absolutely no value in backing this far out unless putting in multiples.

Will be looking for an each way alternative at a decent price to the favourite and All Yours is an early fancy at big prices but will wait for the Greatwood Hurdle before making a decision.

 

[Digger]

TNO is only highly rated coz he has had almost nothing to beat in England in the past few years. He should be trained with other races in mind.

 

[Len Madeiros]

TNO is only highly rated coz he has had almost nothing to beat in England in the past few years. He should be trained with other races in mind.

So, what do we think might happen this year? Is Peace and Co likely to start beating England's best 2-miler, or - and we shouldn't forget this - will TNO be a better horse now that his back issues are sorted?

 

[Digger]

Peace and Co, MTOY, Top Notch. (Wish I could find a few that aren't with Hendo!) Im in the MTPY ew camp. At 25s he would seem the obvious bet.

 

[Grasshopper]

Also knows that TNO'll likely garner more prize money winning tinpot 2milers than cleaning up over further. Has as much chance of winning a CH as Grassy coming to his senses over MTOY.

Still clinging onto that candle, reet? How many times does this one need to tuck-in like a scaredy-cat before you'll give-up on this "He just needs to settle" argument??

 

[clivex]

Not sure if entering this debate about TNO is safe but hey here's my view.

TNO has run twice already in the Champion Hurdle finishing 3rd in 2014 and 5th in 2015. Going for another attempt in 2016. But who has won there 1st Champion Hurdle at the 3rd attempt, no one in recent times! Is the TNO capable of winning, IMO no! Capable of a good performance, IMO yes! But does not look a likely winner! Rich pickings to be had on the way and would be no surprise if he makes Cheltenham unbeaten the same as last year.

Difficult to look beyond last years Impressive winner but absolutely no value in backing this far out unless putting in multiples.

Will be looking for an each way alternative at a decent price to the favourite and All Yours is an early fancy at big prices but will wait for the Greatwood Hurdle before making a decision.

I think ink what doesn't make sense to me is that he is capable of a "good performance" which he is of course and yet "cannot win" . Impossible etc

not just you but right across the forum.

Does anyone-here actually watch racing or is it all spreadsheets? I sense not

unless a horse is absolutely 100% unsuited by the race and conditions, which is clearly not the case, then there is a chance. It is not i"impossible" . Does it need stating that anything can happen? A Mullins horse goes backwards (not unknown) and perhaps a horse or two gets hampered.. .. It's jump racing

thats why we have odds isn't it?

 

[Colin Phillips]

Yep!

 

[Digger]

OK - So if the Irish don't bring any over, and NJH yard get a terrible bug in march... he might then have a wee chance.

 

[Aughex]

TNO has excuses for last 2 CH's so until he'll get overthrown in England by P&C or others then he should target the CH again. WH is not a guarantee either as last year winner was very good and some good stayers novices are coming along this season. I would say that the Aintree Hurdle is the race but he only beat ROR and Diakali by a whisker, so not many options for him unfortunately..