The Will Place Thread

[Dingo Bingo]

I figured this might encourage more members to post a selection that they really can't see out of the places, rather than nailing themselves to a will win pick.
Doesn't need to be double figure odds, 7/2, or even 5/2 would be good enough, but 10/1+ great.
The thinking behind it, is that if you really can't see one out of the frame, then it has a fair chance of winning too. With that in mind, I thought we could (on certain days) amass enough of these selections collectively, to be worthy of EW doubles, trebles, fourfolds etc.
It's not a comp, so don't throw 9/2 shots in for the sake of it, as it'll only let other members down over a period. I urge members to be convinced of a place before posting, as you really fancy the win element and see it as value, but at worse it'll place (that kind of thing).
Will we all get a collective forum 4 or 5 fold by Christmas? It'll be easier than any one of us doing it on our own, that's my thinking behind it.

I have nothing for today. There's a 10/3 shot at Nottingham I've been looking at, but it's too risky for this thread imo, so won't post it.
I'm sure we're all going to take turns in posting the broken leg, but I'm also sure we'll be forgiven too.

Any views on the idea?

 

[Danny]

Other than it can only be a good idea as long as people give it the due care and attention that it needs. Tbh I did something years ago on Ohr that was a similar team effort to land a multiple but basically delegated 1 race on a Saturday to each member. The thinking was that if you just put a concentrated effort in on one race spend a few hours watching the replays going through every angle that you should be able to find something or at least have a better chance. Having half a dozen people put the time in I believe would of yielded results.

I think it fell down on a few people who either weren't really that clued up or people who were just putting any old thing up with out real reasoning or thought. There were 2 or 3 who gave it a real go and it was those same faces week in week out who were hitting the target whether win or place but basically they really had to be unlucky not to go close. I.e if it wasn't for luck they'd have never lost.

Hope it pans out better on here.

If you are genuinely trying to attempt a multiple it's better to try and organise a day and the people who'll commit to being involved as otherwise you'll get one post on a Monday another post one on a Wednesday etc.

 

[Ian_Davies]

There is a bit of an ongoing debate here about the number of threads generally on the forum.

But as someone who starts quite a few threads myself, I really don't have an issue with others doing the same.

I find the forum easy to navigate generally and if material doesn't interest me, I tend to swerve it silently rather than go on a thread to diss its concept - I say "tend," if I read what seems an obvious losing strategy to me I might say so and why before moving on.

I have no issues with this thread and I know some punters see a lot of value in the place part of bets, and like to combine them in each-way doubles and trebles, especially if they can get on with the likes of SkyBet, who offer extended places.

I'm not so sure myself there - punters pay a heavy price in terms of the compressed win odds and the extended place value itself can often be not that great, as a glance at the increasing number of extended place markets on "the machine" imo often attests.

Anyway, I think this thread is well worth a go and kudos to the OP for running it up the flagpole to see if anyone salutes it.

 

[Danny]

I 100% understand that re the places but I think the idea has to be aimed at finding the winners but those you think at worst will place. I think what Dingo is getting at is you dont want the sort of horse who you think has little chance of winning but could run into a place. The aim is looking for winners who you can't see being out of the frame.

 

[chaumi]

I'd say nice enough idea, Dingo. Worth monitoring.

I'll stretch it a bit and suggest that including thoughts around 'this is a big price but could well place' might be worth considering.

Example a 7 runner maiden, 4-9, 11-8, 8-1, 20-1, 50-1 and bigger.

If you can see question marks over the shorties, and have some good feeling for the 50-1 showing unexpectedly improved form, then sticking that 50-1 shot in an EW double or treble can contribute to a nice enough return.

Getting two or three into the frame on any one day at big odds is a task in itself ofc. But it happens. Clearly, getting one 50-1 shot in with two or three at lower odds appears more doable and would potentially - depending on staking over time - still give a payout worth having.

Potential drawback...most of us are posting thoughts about winners on specific race or meeting threads. Posting on this thread would mean duplication. Not sure everyone will do it, even when they 'strongly' fancy one to be in the frame.

But, like I said, would be interesting to monitor.

 

[Dingo Bingo]

If you are genuinely trying to attempt a multiple it's better to try and organise a day and the people who'll commit to being involved as otherwise you'll get one post on a Monday another post one on a Wednesday etc.

I disagree with that. If there's one on a Wednesday and another on a Friday, then so be it. However, I think it'll be more frequent.

Assigning a day and different people a race each has two flaws. First, trying to force something that probably isn't there. Secondly, if I was assigned an 18 runner field at Newmarket on a Saturday, but I was interested in a couple of 10 runner HCP's at Thirsk, another at Hamilton and I was semi interested in race at Doncaster, the Newmarket race would be on the back burner and looked at only if I had time.

The aim is looking for winners who you can't see being out of the frame.

Yes, kind of. Just very sure to be in the thick of things would do and let lady luck see if it wins. Thinking something 'should' stay an extra furlong or 2, is obviously too risky. Taking a chance on the ground would also be too risky. So while X horse might offer great value in circumstances like that, as it could be considered a coin toss (it will or wont), it would be no good for the place aspect. Hence the 'Will Place' title.
As I said, if someone is pretty certain one will place, by default it should have a fair chance of winning and the multiple place returns should keep things OK when they occur. This needs to be a natural as when contribution, rather than trying to organise a task force. Everyone has their own forte too.

 

[Dingo Bingo]

I'll stretch it a bit and suggest that including thoughts around 'this is a big price but could well place' might be worth considering.

I'm not so sure. The 'could well place' kind of goes against the title of 'Will Place' and it becomes too confusing. People will start posting 25/1+ shots claiming the place aspect offers value, but it wouldn't should it sink a communal 4 fold with winners of 11/2, 3/1, 9/2 and 7's.

If the thread falls off the page, then one post will bring it back as a remider when people are posting their usual stuff. It was just an idea, if nobody bothers then it's dead and it can fade away.

 

[chaumi]

I agree, Dingo. I was just typing " Ignore my previous post, in hindsight it wouldn't be in keeping with the overall intent"

Edit** But might be an idea for a thread of it's own. We'll see.

 

[Slim]

Awful idea. Hope this helps.

 

[Dingo Bingo]

I used to run the odd EW double comp on Final Furlong and elsewhere with a prize bet of which any winnings would go to a charity of the winners choice.
It produced pretty good permutation multi bets for the first few days, but as it heated up, despertion would creep in to catch the leader and it became too confusing. RayH was always a solid performer, really solid.
That was asking for people to find a double each, every day for a week and I'm not suggesting that here.

I waffle, but I also recall once running an Exotic Triathlon which was fun, though took some dedicated daily record keeping.
Week 1 - 1 x RFC per day.
Week 2 - 1 x EW Double per day.
Week 3 - 1 x Win Trixie per day.
Not sure of the order, but they were definitely the exotics.

 

[Dingo Bingo]

Awful idea. Hope this helps.

No end.

 

[Slim]

Focus on backing winners.

 

[Dingo Bingo]

Focus on backing winners.

OK Boss.

 

[Slim]

Careful each-way punters are some of the worst punters I know. Yes, in theory you have an edge, but you end up betting in either the hardest races of the day or races where your selection isn't trying. I've a friend who runs a tipping service and only puts up careful each-way selections. I text him last night to remind him that I think he's an idiot.

I'm not being smart replying on this thread, I'm genuinely parting my experience and knowledge of making money betting. 'Will place' is a waste of time and energy. Focus on backing winners and you'll be an extraordinary better punter.

 

[barjon]

Whilst I basically agree with Slim I do find that quite often my notebook is second favourite behind a hot (odds-on) favourite at around three to one with the rest no better than around double that. In those cases I’m rock solid for a place, albeit that if I bet at all it’s for the win. An example in the 2:40 at Ponty yesterday:

W Gold Queen Kindly 1/2f
2. Sanaam 100/30
3. Kings Road Dandy 9/1
16/1 bar

I suppose if you rolled up the place portion in similar races in a multiple it’d be ok, but it would rely on enough such “rock solid” races being available.

 

[Dingo Bingo]

Careful each-way punters are some of the worst punters I know. Yes, in theory you have an edge, but you end up betting in either the hardest races of the day or races where your selection isn't trying.

Unless of course, they don't and they are trying.

Focus on backing winners and you'll be an extraordinary better punter.

Who'd have thunk it?

There's lots of ways to skin a cat. EW betting is fine. I could say exactly the same regarding backing shorties that seem 'good things'. There's a chance people will be lured into chasing loses, hefty loses, proverbial road to the poor house etc.

Each to their own, which is something you should realise. I wouldn't bet like you do, I just wouldn't do it. Lumping on 9/4 shots for a long term profit over the season. One point here and other couple there, losing runs at a minimum (hopefully). Not my cup of tea, but I understand some play that way. I find the safety net of a sensible EW bet keeps my losing runs to a minimum, while I also enjoy getting a similar return with a large priced winner, as I would lumping on shorties, pickign up the return and handign it back again, back and forth. I also find better value at the lower end of the market, margins just aren't as tight down there imho.

Obviously, I'm trying to find the winner, who isn't? If you think EW doubles and trebles are for mugs, you're missing a real treat, I can assure you of that.

I'm done discussing the subject. It's pointless, it's been done a thousdand times before. Same as WFA and all the other bollocks. I came up with an idea. Fancy one strongly enough that you're sure it'll place if it loses, then collectivley members could get regular place returns from the compunding place elements and hopefully the occassional pay day, which in theory should be easier to achieve than trying alone, or at least more frequent attempts at it. Someone might post a 1m6F runners, or a hurdler, neither of which I'd ever pick up on, because I would have looked at those races. The same will apply to others, some focusing on 2yo's, others on sprinters.

To be honest, I've lost interest. Post something, it gets rubbished. Has been the same with the clock, now EW betting.
I tell you something, Slim. If I'd made 2 points in 2 months I wouldn;t be running around the foprum proverbially shooting my load on everyones screens, in some kind of a "I'm a pro wankfest".

Shove it. I can do without all the shit, AGAIN.

 

[Slim]

That's some f$%^ing essay.

 

[Ian_Davies]

Unless of course, they don't and they are trying.


Who'd have thunk it?

There's lots of ways to skin a cat. EW betting is fine. I could say exactly the same regarding backing shorties that seem 'good things'. There's a chance people will be lured into chasing loses, hefty loses, proverbial road to the poor house etc.

Each to their own, which is something you should realise. I wouldn't bet like you do, I just wouldn't do it. Lumping on 9/4 shots for a long term profit over the season. One point here and other couple there, losing runs at a minimum (hopefully). Not my cup of tea, but I understand some play that way. I find the safety net of a sensible EW bet keeps my losing runs to a minimum, while I also enjoy getting a similar return with a large priced winner, as I would lumping on shorties, pickign up the return and handign it back again, back and forth. I also find better value at the lower end of the market, margins just aren't as tight down there imho.

Obviously, I'm trying to find the winner, who isn't? If you think EW doubles and trebles are for mugs, you're missing a real treat, I can assure you of that.

I'm done discussing the subject. It's pointless, it's been done a thousdand times before. Same as WFA and all the other bollocks. I came up with an idea. Fancy one strongly enough that you're sure it'll place if it loses, then collectivley members could get regular place returns from the compunding place elements and hopefully the occassional pay day, which in theory should be easier to achieve than trying alone, or at least more frequent attempts at it. Someone might post a 1m6F runners, or a hurdler, neither of which I'd ever pick up on, because I would have looked at those races. The same will apply to others, some focusing on 2yo's, others on sprinters.

To be honest, I've lost interest. Post something, it gets rubbished. Has been the same with the clock, now EW betting.
I tell you something, Slim. If I'd made 2 points in 2 months I wouldn;t be running around the foprum proverbially shooting my load on everyones screens, in some kind of a "I'm a pro wankfest".

Shove it. I can do without all the shit, AGAIN.

In all fairness, you did sound like you were asking for feedback and not all feedback is always positive.

Slim made some valid points IMO and tbh were elements of my own reply not somewhat diffident?

No reason imo to give the idea the bullet if you (and maybe others) think it has legs.

 

[Danny]

I'd say this in response to that Ian is that although feedback isnt always positive Slim being Slim is always blunt ( As point blank would suggest) in a way that some people not myself as im used to him but in some ways comes across as completely disrespectful.

Having seen Chris operate from years gone by he's one of the shrewdest and at one time I don't know if it's still the case but hardest working most committed punters you'd of ever found in the game. He's always been helpful to people who dont understand as much as he does. Also tried to work in groups with people whove let him down by showing half the commitment he did. He's also been around a lot longer than Slim and I'd hazard a guess made more money long term that might not be the case as I know Slim was a big hitter at one point. That aside when the first response to someone like Dingo is awful idea! its probably not the correct response as he probably understands a lot that other people dont and it certainly comes across disrespectful.

I used to be as blunt as Slim with people and certainly liked to tell people the truth even if it was painful to the point where it could be offensive. Someone older and wiser gave me some advice. He said telling hard truths to people was fine but when doing it you should doing it like you're serving them dinner not like you're throwing a wet towel in their face.

The main point is we've got a group of real good punters coming along here a bit of respect amongst each other even if differing in views probably see more benefit for everyone. Can't have enough good minds even if they dont all think the same.

I await the Slim standard "Gaylord"response.

 

[Slim]

I don't understand why people get so upset with me when I've perfectly articulated my disagreement with each-way betting as a strategy. I don't expect people to agree with me — in fact, some very good form judges disagree with me. Disagreement is good; someone, somewhere, will learn something. What I’ve no time for is people throwing their toys out of the cot and attacking my character rather than engaging with the point I’m making.

 

[Danny]

Yeah in fairness you did articulate your argument well after initially saying awful idea hope this helps. Perhaps skip the initial response Slim

 

[pawras]

fk me some people would start a fight in an empty room if they could

I would say it's worthwhile looking for place bets in a race when looking to place combo exactas or trifectas

 

[chaumi]

Well I'd still liked to have seen how this panned out. I can see scenarios where it might have given a positive return, especially given the quality of thoughts around individual runners that are regularly seen on the forum.



So, the point we're at could be stated as...

Thanks to those against it for stating their thoughts so eloquently. We wanted to hear those, yeah that was asked for. You definitely have valid points, but equally there are other ways of looking at it. Clearly, you don't have to read, and you can steer clear from now on.

But an alternative way of saying it (slightly more in keeping with the ways that some people seem to want to respond to others, however that's 'just their way') is...

Thanks for your eloquent and insightful feedback and thoughts. Now feel free to f%*& off, you don't need to have any further interaction with this thread.

 

[The Fortune Teller]

I figured this might encourage more members to post a selection that they really can't see out of the places, rather than nailing themselves to a will win pick.
Doesn't need to be double figure odds, 7/2, or even 5/2 would be good enough, but 10/1+ great.
The thinking behind it, is that if you really can't see one out of the frame, then it has a fair chance of winning too. With that in mind, I thought we could (on certain days) amass enough of these selections collectively, to be worthy of EW doubles, trebles, fourfolds etc.
It's not a comp, so don't throw 9/2 shots in for the sake of it, as it'll only let other members down over a period. I urge members to be convinced of a place before posting, as you really fancy the win element and see it as value, but at worse it'll place (that kind of thing).
Will we all get a collective forum 4 or 5 fold by Christmas? It'll be easier than any one of us doing it on our own, that's my thinking behind it.

I have nothing for today. There's a 10/3 shot at Nottingham I've been looking at, but it's too risky for this thread imo, so won't post it.
I'm sure we're all going to take turns in posting the broken leg, but I'm also sure we'll be forgiven too.

Any views on the idea?

The worst thing you did was asking for any views on the idea.

It's an interesting thread, and those that want to read and take part will do so. End of.

Keep it simple.

The phillosophy of successful betting only ever goes so far, results are much more important.

 

[Len Madeiros]

I like ew bets, and we can all spot the “bad each ways”, which can be profitable, esp in accumulators. But even I’ve learned to bury the bet in a Yankee/ Canadian, rather than a straight acca.

Each to their own. My betting is a hobby, never a source of additional income. I’ve learnt to lose over the years. Sustaining sustainable losses is my mantra. A big win is just a bonus.