Tidal Bay

Well I would take Knowhere over Voy Plod Uselessedes anyday over 3m, and for that matter Old Woof and Exotic Dogger :)
 
Come on now Chris ~ that statement makes you look a bit silly. The horses you slag off have won seventeen graded chases between them.
 
Doesn't Knowhere, as likeable as he is, have over a stone to find with Exotic Dancer on Aintree form? Their careers so far would also suggest that Exotic Dancer is the more likely to improve for a run as well.
 
rorydelargy said:
Come on now Chris ~ that statement makes you look a bit silly. The horses you slag off have won seventeen graded chases between them.
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True, but Voy Por struggles to get 2m 4f, let alone 3m. Our Vic is another 2m 4f horse, but in my opinion holds a bit back. I actually think Knowhere will do better than Exotic this year and Exotic is one of those horses I just couldn't have.

They may as well hand the King George to Kauto now.
 
I can't say I massively fancy either Exotic Dancer or Our Vic to win the King George, especially the latter. On the other hand Voy Por Ustedes is at least interesting. He may not stay three miles, but it would be inaccurate to say he struggles to stay two and a half as his performances at the trip suggest that he's not only able to stay it well, but actually a fair bit better at that trip than two miles. Until the limit of his stamina is established, then he remains a serious contender.
 
rorydelargy said:
On the other hand Voy Por Ustedes is at least interesting..................Until the limit of his stamina is established, then he remains a serious contender.
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Can't have that at all, rory.

Even if he does stay 3m, Voy Por Ustedes will need to improve the best part of a stone on his very best ever form, to worry Kauto Star at Kempton.

He remains an almost-certain-to-be outstayed and outclassed contender. :D
 
Weither he can beat Kauto Star at Kempton is very doubtful, but take the Nicholls horse out of the race and he is one of the more interesting types.
 
Galileo said:
Weither he can beat Kauto Star at Kempton is very doubtful, but take the Nicholls horse out of the race and he is one of the more interesting types.
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Sorry, Gal, but until Kauto Star does come out of the race, Voy Por Ustedes remains utterly uninteresting, imo.

And even if KS did come out of the race, I would have no compunction whatsoever in fielding against him. Others already have better form credentials, and no stamina question marks.
 
Which horses have a better chance to place than VPU? Exotic Dancer is the obvious one (at his best) but aside from him VPU is right in the mix. I personally think he will relish every yard of Kempton's 3 mile test.
 
Our Vic has better form credentials, as well as Exotic dancer.

There is zero evidence that Voy Por Ustedes will stay 3m, and if I'm looking beyond Kauto, Exotic or OV, then I'd rather back Tidal Bay.

VPU as 9/2 second fave for the King George? Based on what exactly? One run against Master Minded?

LAY!!!
 
Grasshopper said:
Our Vic has better form credentials, as well as Exotic dancer.

There is zero evidence that Voy Por Ustedes will stay 3m, and if I'm looking beyond Kauto, Exotic or OV, then I'd rather back Tidal Bay.

VPU as 9/2 second fave for the King George? Based on what exactly? One run against Master Minded?

LAY!!!
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I only said he was "interesting"! :D
 
VPU looks very much as though he'll stay to me - and, tired line though it is, if he's going to get 3m, he's got more chance of getting it at Kempton than most other places.

I can't have for a second that VPU "struggles to get 2m4f", Chris - to me it is patently obvious that he is a far better animal over that trip. He looks as though he's been crying out for a step up in trip, especially when you watch his run in the Melling where he literally laughed at everything else in the race. You can forgive him the Old Roan, where a combination of weight and a bad jumping error took its toll.
 
Clearly the jury is out, Shads, but I'm not convinced by the argument that says "he looks like he'll stay 3m". He wasn't exactly finishing the Old Roan like a train, and at the weights, isn't even as good as Exotic Dancer at 2m4f. And it's well established that ED comes on for his first outing.

VPU might well 'stay' 3m - it's whether he can 'stay' it in the same parish as some of the established 3-milers that's the question. Would you want to take 9/2 to find out? I'd still want to oppose him at that price, if Kauto Star came out of the race.

I think he's as soft as shite myself. :D
 
No, I don't reckon I would back him at 9/2, especially to find out!

I was more taking issue with the ridiculous notion expressed that VPU "struggles" to stay 2m4f which is utter nonsense.
 
I personally feel VPU run at Aintree was more of an account of Master Minded making an error on landing when getting tired, and handing it on a plate to VPU, it was hardly a straight duel, I would personally not back VPU over 2m 4f, you say about the Old Roan but he was out on his limbs 2 out, regardless whether an error or lack of match fitness was accounted for, he was going noweher from 2 down. When he beat Master Minded, imo only one thing was proven, Master Minded is not the same horse over 2m 4f, and a serious mistake cost him dear.

I think Tidal Bay would eat him for breakfast in the Ryanair as well.

On all of VPU tries at 2m 4f, only 2 I know I think people are looking at his Aintree result too much, he beat a non stayer. His comeback run didn't suggest he was unfit, just unable to quicken when it mattered.

Previously in extended 2m races, he struggled in the Game Spirit and had no more to give from 2 out. Plus in a stratford novice once, he failed to pick up having travelled really well over 2m 1f in testing conditions.

I would happily lay him in the win and place for a King George, he won't stay and if he is fav for either the Ryanair or the Mumm Melling next year then for me he rates a massive lay. Not trying to aftertime but I laid him win and place on Sunday, mind u I done my brains on the Nicholls horse so it don't matter. I just think he is one of those horses who looks as if he wants further but doesnt stay further, watch the final 3 fences of his April win, its more Master Minded stopping than him going away, his stride wasn't exactly toe pointing late on and whilst clear Choc was ratehr stick happy suggesting he was easing up, had Master Minded not been eased right down, he would have only won 7 or 8 lengths, not the exagerated 18L, and given Master Minded was walking from 2 out, 8L for me suggests he outstayed MM but was hardly finishing as if he could go miles further.
 
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This the same race that Jonjo used for Exotic Dancer prior to winning the PP a couple of years back?

Albertas Run for the Hennessy?
 
Strange that Chris, I was at Aintree for the Melling and I seem to remember there being 6 runners, not just the two. You cannot possibly not stay the trip and beat a field like that with so much ease - since you're so desperate to take MM out of the equation, that would leave VPU beating Tamarinbleu and the rest of the field by thirty six lengths and upwards. You don't do that by not staying.

As for the Old Roan, the animal was giving weight away all round - tell me, is it a disgrace to be beaten by less than 5l by a Pillar Chase winner to whom you are giving away 19lbs, on your first run of the season (the last two seasons he has stripped considerably fitter on his second run of the season, having disappointed on his debut) and having made a jumping error three out? DOes that scream that he doesn't stay? Of course it doesn't.

None of your assertions as to why he apparently doesn't stay 2m4f hold any water I'm afraid. The evidence so far suggests that the opposite is in fact true.
 
Let's clarify: I don't believe that Voy Por Ustedes will win the King George. I'm merely defending his race record and ability to stay twenty furlongs. There must be a way of measuring whether a performance is flattering to the winner rather than just second guessing the opposition. Oh, we do ~ it's called a stopwatch. I'm not a blind fan of speed ratings but a horse who doesn't stay the trip cannot put up an exceptional performance on the clock as long as the clock is reliable. Voy Por Ustedes had Master Minded off the bridle when that one made his infamous mistake (incidentally, the mistake that VPU made at the same fence last Sunday was more serious in my opinion) and galloped on to go ten lengths clear before Ruby stopped riding the runner up. The time was 4 minutes and 58 seconds which is several seconds faster than Moscow Flyer managed and got a RP Topspeed figure of 181 which is almost frightening.

Citing occasions where VPU has been beaten over trips in excess 2 miles as if they make any statement about his stamina is bizarre. Just because horse X wins a race, doesn't mean that his opponents didn't stay. Of course VPU struggled somewhat in the Game Spirit as he was trying to give six pounds to Master Minded, and of course he struggled to get within five lengths of Knowhere in the Old Roan as he was conceding over a stone to that horse. Remember also that he was comprehensively beaten first time up last year by the machine that is Kalca Mome. Perhaps he isn't quite so effective on soft ground?
 
Lee Mottershead​



PAUL NICHOLLS on Monday aired his admiration for rising star Tidal Bay, but warned that the Arkle Trophy winner would have "a mountain to climb" if pitted against the trainer's Master Minded or Kauto Star over the coming weeks.

An easy Sunday reappearance success prompted bookmakers to cut the Howard Johnson-trained Tidal Bay for both the Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase - for which he is as short as 4-1 second favourite behind title-holder Master Minded - and the Stan James King George VI Chase, whose 2006 and 2007 winner Kauto Star now universally trades at odds-on.

However, Nicholls, speaking at the launch of Sandown's jumps season, will not be frightened should Tidal Bay tackle Master Minded in next month's Tingle Creek Chase, to be backed for the first time by the Champion Chase sponsor.

Nicholls said: "If you look at the horses Tidal Bay beat yesterday, he has got a mountain to climb to beat horses like Kauto Star and Master Minded.
"Howard would have been pleased with him yesterday, and like with Kauto Star on Saturday, it doesn't matter what you beat first time out, you just want to get round and be safe and sound.

"If Tidal Bay runs in the Tingle Creek he has got a long way to climb, and it's the same for the King George.

"He is clearly a highly talented horse and we did try to buy him a few years ago, but Howard obviously offered more. Where he goes I wouldn't know, but even if he went to the Peterborough Chase I would not mind taking him on there now that I know Noland can breathe."

Nicholls added: "We can get them ready at home and Master Minded will be spot-on for the Tingle Creek. Twist Magic and Natal could also end up there, and Takeroc as well with a bit of luck."
 
I'm beginning to get pissed off with the inability of anyone at the RP (and elsewhere) to have an opinion about anything NH related without phoning Paul Nicholls first. Haven't they heard of the friggin' form book? Lee Mottershead in particular is an abject embarrassment in this department. The Post did a video panel for last week's Scoop6 which inexplicably included Persian Punch's biggest fan and I don't think he suggested a single horse who hit the frame. He does love his mum though.
 
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