Timeform Chasers and Hurdlers

With reference to C&H annuals - is the rating the highest they've achieved, or a more balanced view taken in retrospect at year's end?
 
Sorry Grasshopper, it is a C&H rating. He's the one horse of the top 3 that is potentially the most difficult to rate. I still think that QM form is potentially not worth a carrot. Personally, I suspect he's the one horse that gave his running that day yet he's 6/4 or something for the Champion Chase with people seeming not to remeber his Aintree run where he went from cruising to stuffed in a matter of strides.
 
I'm surprised at that DJ, as it is very much the view I hold about the Champion Chase. There were holes in the form of all of VPU, TM and Tamaribleu before the race, and it's a difficult performance to weigh-up.

I figured to err on the side of caution, but suspected TF might have given a rating in the 180's.
 
Andrew Hurley said:
With reference to C&H annuals - is the rating the highest they've achieved, or a more balanced view taken in retrospect at year's end?
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It's the highest they have achieved throughout the season. Each horse's rating and therefore each race is scrutinised again at the end of the season and some amendments are made, hence why in some cases a horse's black book rating can be different from it's annual rating.
 
It's certainly a plausable reason I agree, I just don't like putting horses that weaken as quickly as that down to a lack of stamina.
 
The frustrating thing about C&H is that they don`t put the ratings for the big races at the back of the Annual like they do for the Flat version.

TF have never rated Voy Por Ustedes has high as RPR`s have. He got 163 from the Halifax boys last year whereas the latter say he beat that figure three times during 2006/07 (twice he was given 167 finishing in front of Oneway)

Oneway was given 161 three times by RPR. Twice when behind Kauto in two runnings of the Tingle Creek on soft, once in that Queen Mother behind Moscow Flyer. Oneway was better on good and and good/soft than soft, it`s a conclusion you can`t help but make if you look at his overall form. Bottom line is the Tingle Creek that KS won from VPU and Oneway was hideously overrated, Moscow Flyer would have destroyed KS over two miles and yet RPR have the latter only three pounds behind him on those "Oneway" races that tie the animals together.

The key to Master Minded`s rating is how highly one rates VPU over two miles. RPR have him on 167+ for the QM and that is too high imo. I believe that Moscow Flyer was generally underrated by three or four pounds and Master Minded if rated 187 overrated by a similar margin.
 
davidjohnson said:
It's certainly a plausable reason I agree, I just don't like putting horses that weaken as quickly as that down to a lack of stamina.
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I think Master Minded does stay a little bit further than 2m (probably about 2m2f, which helped him win so well at Cheltenham in a race run at a ferocious pace) but they were going a fair rattle on faster ground at Aintree and he hit the second-last, which knocked the stuffing out of him.

Added to which, VPU on good/faster ground should never be ignored as he has an explosive leap in him, despite his lack of size. (The Ryanair should be interesting if he and Tidal Bay go for it.)

All in all, I don't think Master Minded was disgraced at Aintree and would probably have been closer but for that error.

I'll be the first to plead my ignorance of handicap ratings, but my speed ratings will stand their ground when the money is down!
 
I think that's a good point about MM and his ability to handle a little over 2m Redhead. I'm mystified why he is rated so highly on what is essentially just the one run, however good it was.

The compilers seem to have done their research and largely discounted KS's runs after his Ascot injury, as I'm very inclined to do, given information I've had about the end to his season (not to mention the evidence of my eyes)... I'd be surprised if KS is retired this year, whichever way his season goes - what makes you think it likely Sheikh?

I don't think it's possible on the one run where they have met, to make a definitive comparison between Denman and KS; and it's immensely frustrating that they won't meet again until the Gold Cup. If one of them is still feeling an injury again, for instance, we still won't "know" beyond all doubt - and I'd like to see them race each other at a flat course and poss a right handed one as well!
 
Grasshopper said:
Not at all. They are up there for debate - to be trashed or agreed with, at people's leisure. And I make no claim to their accuracy, or otherwise - it's merely my interpretation.

And in my own defence, I did answer Galileo's question - I merely found the phrasing somewhat dismissive, hence my response (with added emoticon, to soften the blow).

I hope this reply meets with your approval. Feel free to post your own ratings at any stage.

Relax - I'm just kidding.
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No offence was meant nor hopefully taken. I think Euro summed things up nicely regarding MM rating.
 
I am surprised Kauto Star's connections dont "track" Denman down. Leopardstown would be a very fair track to both.
 
I had the same thought last night! If Kauto was in the same form as last year's KG or Ascot Chase, I think he'd beat Denman over 3m at any track in UK or Ireland.
 
Galileo said:
I am surprised Kauto Star's connections dont "track" Denman down. Leopardstown would be a very fair track to both.
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Good idea - Lewis should issue a challenge, there´s no way Findlay would turn it down given he think´s he owns Pegasus - 3m at Leopardstown at Christmas :)
 
Andrew Hurley said:
I had the same thought last night! If Kauto was in the same form as last year's KG or Ascot Chase, I think he'd beat Denman over 3m at any track in UK or Ireland.
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It`d have to be on a flat track for me. Newbury would be the ultimate as Denman is excellent there.

I agree with you on principal, but I have a sneaky feeling that the big boy will be even better this year and would edge it, unless the ground was no softer than good.
 
Headstrong said:
I think that's a good point about MM and his ability to handle a little over 2m Redhead. I'm mystified why he is rated so highly on what is essentially just the one run, however good it was.

The compilers seem to have done their research and largely discounted KS's runs after his Ascot injury, as I'm very inclined to do, given information I've had about the end to his season (not to mention the evidence of my eyes)
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Just to clarify something about ratings, although it has been mentioned earlier.

Timeform (and other ratings services) rate horses according to the best performances a horse has produced as long as that rating is held to be reliable and the horse is deemed still capable of similar form ~ they don't take averages or downgrade the rating if subsequent performances are less impressive. It is only if subsequent events suggest that the form of a particular race is not as strong as was suggested at the time that a rating will be downgraded. It's also likely that a horse's rating will be similarly downgraded if in subsequent runs it appears to have lost a degree of its earlier ability.

In those circumstances, it's correct to rate Master Minded above Kauto Star and Kauto Star above Denman in the season just past, but it would be wrong to infer from that that Denman is inferior to his stablemates ~ merely that they produced individual performances which were of slightly greater merit on the day. I hope that makes sense.

With regards to the terms "p" and "+" as used by Timeform, a "p" suggests that the horse in question may have performed up to his current best, but that said horse has the ability to develop physically and/or mentally to produce a higher rating in the future. A "+" suggests that the performance can be bettered because the horse in question had something in reserve, being not fully extended to win or having been unable to show its full worth given the way a race was run. It's possible that both situations may be true, but both symbols cannot be used together.
 
rorydelargy said:
In those circumstances, it's correct to rate Master Minded above Kauto Star and Kauto Star above Denman in the season just past
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Only if you take the view that VPU deserves a rating near 170. It`s easier to go OTT on wide margin winners. If Azertyuiop or Well Chief in their pomp had been up against Master Minded`s field in March you`d have had a very similar outcome, and neither of those two were rated over 182.
 
Euro,

I say correct, but I mean technically correct as I accept that ratings are a subjective business; I also believe that Master Minded is probably overrated, but it's also difficult to downgrade his CC performance, given how he pulverised his field. We'll learn a lot more this season.
 
Let's not forget that Schindler's Hunt came out of that Champion Chase and won a big Graded handicap off a big-weight at Fairyhouse, before a decent run in the Punchestown version.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Let's not forget that Schindler's Hunt came out of that Champion Chase and won a big Graded handicap off a big-weight at Fairyhouse, before a decent run in the Punchestown version.
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3l behind Twist Magic who finished 16l behind him at Cheltenham.
 
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