Timeform Chasers and Hurdlers

I'd agree Twist Magic never seemed to be the same after Sandown.

Did someone on here mention the possibility of a breathing problem?
 
rorydelargy said:
In those circumstances, it's correct to rate Master Minded above Kauto Star and Kauto Star above Denman in the season just past, but it would be wrong to infer from that that Denman is inferior to his stablemates ~ merely that they produced individual performances which were of slightly greater merit on the day. I hope that makes sense.
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For the most part it does. You mentioned though that in order for a horse to receive a rating on an individual run, it must be deemed capable of producing similar form. Would that not indicate that a horse with a higher rating is believed to be capable of producing a higher level of form than one with a lower rating (thus making Master Minded theoretically superior to Denman.

Of course I note the word "similar" which probably accounts for a couple of pounds. Ratings are subjective of course (and not my area of expertise either!). My primary hesitation about using them alone is that they make very little allowance for consistency (or lack thereof, as the case may be).
 
trackside528 said:
For the most part it does. You mentioned though that in order for a horse to receive a rating on an individual run, it must be deemed capable of producing similar form. Would that not indicate that a horse with a higher rating is believed to be capable of producing a higher level of form than one with a lower rating (thus making Master Minded theoretically superior to Denman.
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Not necessarily; it simply means that Master Minded has put up a performance which has rated slightly higher than the best performance put up by Denman. It makes no statement about whether he will continue to post better figures, although the expectation is that he should be able to repeat the level of form given similar circumstances. It's likely that both will improve again, but it's also possible that either of them may regress for reasons unknown. Ratings aren't meant to be the be all and end all, but merely a starting point and Timeform would be the last people to suggest that their top rated horse in every race is the most likely winner, although that is often the case.

For example, Denman's most impressive performance visually was his destruction of the Gold Cup field but it won't rate at his best performance in terms of form. The reason for that is that he didn't run the race in a manner conducive to producing his optimum performance, getting palpably tired from the 2nd last after his exertions on the second circuit, but that display marked him down as truly exceptional, jumping brilliantly and covering the middle part of the race faster than specialist two milers in the Grand Annual. The problem in rating that is that there has to be a collateral assessment of the final performance which ties in to the distance he beat the placed horses by. Impressive though Master Minded's win in the QM was, it was Denman's run which left the deepest impression, even though it achieved a lower rating. I've rambled around the point a bit, but I hope this makes some sense.
 
rorydelargy said:
Not necessarily; it simply means that Master Minded has put up a performance which has rated slightly higher than the best performance put up by Denman.

For example, Denman's most impressive performance visually was his destruction of the Gold Cup field but it won't rate at his best performance in terms of form.
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Debman`s 180 performance was in the Hennessey. Timeform`s opinion is that Master Minded `s run in the QM was of a similar level to Denman`s in the Gold Cup.
 
Andrew Hurley said:
Did someone on here mention the possibility of a breathing problem?
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He wore a tongue tie at Punchestown for the first time in over 2 years, but Paul Nicholls has said several times that his biggest problem is with soft ground. He won the Tingle Creek from another horse who doesn't give his best on soft.
 
172 Exotic Dancer
170 Neptune Collonges
170 Our Vic (no squiggle this year)
170 Voy Por Ustedes
169 Halcon Genelardais
166 Racing Demon
166 The Listener
 
rorydelargy said:
Not necessarily; it simply means that Master Minded has put up a performance which has rated slightly higher than the best performance put up by Denman. It makes no statement about whether he will continue to post better figures, although the expectation is that he should be able to repeat the level of form given similar circumstances. It's likely that both will improve again, but it's also possible that either of them may regress for reasons unknown. Ratings aren't meant to be the be all and end all, but merely a starting point and Timeform would be the last people to suggest that their top rated horse in every race is the most likely winner, although that is often the case.

For example, Denman's most impressive performance visually was his destruction of the Gold Cup field but it won't rate at his best performance in terms of form. The reason for that is that he didn't run the race in a manner conducive to producing his optimum performance, getting palpably tired from the 2nd last after his exertions on the second circuit, but that display marked him down as truly exceptional, jumping brilliantly and covering the middle part of the race faster than specialist two milers in the Grand Annual. The problem in rating that is that there has to be a collateral assessment of the final performance which ties in to the distance he beat the placed horses by. Impressive though Master Minded's win in the QM was, it was Denman's run which left the deepest impression, even though it achieved a lower rating. I've rambled around the point a bit, but I hope this makes some sense.
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Fair enough. I would dispute the point that Denman didn't run the race "conducive to his best performance" merely because he was fairly well knackered crossing the line; afterall, it was a similar story in the Henessy (Sam Thomas even gave him a totally unnecesary smack virtually as they were crossing the line for good measure IIR).
 
Yeah ... all right ... computer doing funny things last night and posted twice 'cos first didn't show.

Thanks for the answer Grasshopper.

Thanks for the answer Grasshopper.:p
 
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