Tom Queally

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EC1 said:
his figures say he is no better or worse than any other jockey

his UK figures since April read

45/332

the odds suggested he should win 47 races..an A/E of 0.96

not seeing a problem tbh..except that his poor rides seem to get highlighted more than others

all jockeys f00k races up at some point..all of them
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Love when people banish a myth with stasticial evidence!
 
I took careful note of Dettori's rides on his comeback. It was soon obvious that trainers were simply asking him to weigh up the ones they booked him for or just oblige him in his need to get some race practice in. Apart from the one or two trainers who genuinely supported him from the off, it's only been in the last few weeks they've started offering him more serious rides, pretty much coinciding with his appointment to Toronado's owner.

He was a definite negative for me until recently, apart from when riding for certain trainers. Lately he's becoming a positive again.

OK, he can be a d1ckhead at times but at his best he's better than anyone else around.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I took careful note of Dettori's rides on his comeback. It was soon obvious that trainers were simply asking him to weigh up the ones they booked him for or just oblige him in his need to get some race practice in. Apart from the one or two trainers who genuinely supported him from the off, it's only been in the last few weeks they've started offering him more serious rides, pretty much coinciding with his appointment to Toronado's owner.

He was a definite negative for me until recently, apart from when riding for certain trainers. Lately he's becoming a positive again.

OK, he can be a d1ckhead at times but at his best he's better than anyone else around.
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the AE is measured against the odds though...and the odds are overall the best reflection of a horse's chance...that can also be demonstrated easily by looking at a serious of results ...2/1 shots win as expected..5/1 shots wins as expected...the market is the most powerful stat in horse racing

its very easy to say.. he rode no hopers..he didn't in reality or the odds would have reflected that...its very easy to say Queally is poor..he isn't..in fact this season he is riding better than Hughes when you actually weigh up the actual market chance his mounts have had
 
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Wouldn't be sure that the price of a horse has any real relevance to how well they were ridden. Applying the same criterion to the Ebor would see Moore and Spencer as the worst jockeys in the race, and Seb Sanders the best.
Wasn't knocking Queally btw; merely pointing out that his "beautifully timed run" came after he'd been fighting for a gap for a furlong and a half. :)
 
EC1 said:
its very easy to say.. he rode no hopers..he didn't in reality or the odds would have reflected that...
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Not in this case. He's Frankie Dettori, the best thing to hit British racing in a generation. When he came back after his ban punters were willing him to win and were overbetting his horses relative to their chances.

The stats you quote have their use and in the big scheme of things probably paint a reasonably fair picture but I know what I see with my own eyes. Spencer is hopeless most of the time. Whether that's through riding to instructions designed to lose or misjudgment on his part I don't know but he's very often a serious negative for me when I'm weighing what what to back, even more so than Queally.

If I'm being truthful, it's because I think Spencer is a lot more bent than Queally.
 
reet hard said:
Wouldn't be sure that the price of a horse has any real relevance to how well they were ridden. Applying the same criterion to the Ebor would see Moore and Spencer as the worst jockeys in the race, and Seb Sanders the best.
Wasn't knocking Queally btw; merely pointing out that his "beautifully timed run" came after he'd been fighting for a gap for a furlong and a half. :)
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its not to be taken in isolation though..same as every fav doesn't perform to its odds in every race..the figures are taken over a period of time where we know that each odds band wins as it should

if a jockey is riding poorly the figures will show it..as with Dettori...not possible to judge on one ride though

i'd say each month you can take the figures and get a good idea of who has ridden well or not using the odds
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not in this case. He's Frankie Dettori, the best thing to hit British racing in a generation. When he came back after his ban punters were willing him to win and were overbetting his horses relative to their chances.

The stats you quote have their use and in the big scheme of things probably paint a reasonably fair picture but I know what I see with my own eyes. Spencer is hopeless most of the time. Whether that's through riding to instructions designed to lose or misjudgment on his part I don't know but he's very often a serious negative for me when I'm weighing what what to back, even more so than Queally.

If I'm being truthful, it's because I think Spencer is a lot more bent than Queally.
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but Spencer shows as being below par with the figures?...a par figure is something like 0.90 to 1.00.......0.75 for Spencer shows he has not won as often as he should
 
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simmo said:
EC1 - Out of interest - how does the calculation cope with long priced winners - does it skew the figure at all?
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i'll just add..all the figures are taken from Flatstats site

i would say they cope pretty well with them...of course you have the fact that 33/1 shots are probably 50/1 shots in reality..which would skew someone's figures a bit if thats all they rode

name me anything thats 100% in racing..except Slim being number one of course:)

i've never seen anyone yet come up with a better way of measuring it tbh..more reliable than lampooning a jock thats just lost on one you have bet on anyway:)...then ignoring his 20 previous good rides and judging him on a ride that hurts in the pocket sort of thing
 
EC1 said:
i'll just add..all the figures are taken from Flatstats site

i would say they cope pretty well with them...of course you have the fact that 33/1 shots are probably 50/1 shots in reality..which would skew someone's figures a bit if thats all they rode

name me anything thats 100% in racing..except Slim being number one of course:)

i've never seen anyone yet come up with a better way of measuring it tbh..more reliable than lampooning a jock thats just lost on one you have bet on anyway:)...then ignoring his 20 previous good rides and judging him on a ride that hurts in the pocket sort of thing
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I'm sure we had this conversation before but if there was a way to incorporate the Betfair SP into those stats it would be very robust. It may also point out jockeys who don't win the expected winner ration because they are not trying.
 
SlimChance said:
I'm sure we had this conversation before but if there was a way to incorporate the Betfair SP into those stats it would be very robust. It may also point out jockeys who don't win the expected winner ration because they are not trying.
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it would also remove the 33/1 shots that are really50/1 shots aspect

they use Betfair SP on the site..might be worth emailing Stephen Mainwaring who runs the site..see if its possible to do..he's pretty accommodating

the only issue for him is that the historical stuff will be based on actual SP's.
 
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EC1 said:
it would also remove the 33/1 shots that are really50/1 shots aspect

they use Betfair SP on the site..might be worth emailing Stephen Mainwaring who runs the site..see if its possible to do..he's pretty accommodating

the only issue for him is that the historical stuff will be based on actual SP's.
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If you could get this data it would be hugely beneficial. If be shocked if someone is not doing this already. If you had 1000 races per jockey you would learn a lot.
 
EC1 said:
i've never seen anyone yet come up with a better way of measuring it tbh..more reliable than lampooning a jock thats just lost on one you have bet on anyway:)...then ignoring his 20 previous good rides and judging him on a ride that hurts in the pocket sort of thing
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I think I've conceded already that it paints a fair picture overall.

I would have to say the Spencer situation [with me] goes a lot further than one or two losing bets. I'll be the first on here to admit when he or Queally (etc) get it right.

But don't get me started on Fallon....
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think I've conceded already that it paints a fair picture overall.

I would have to say the Spencer situation [with me] goes a lot further than one or two losing bets. I'll be the first on here to admit when he or Queally (etc) get it right.

But don't get me started on Fallon....
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to be fair...both Fallon and Spencer are below what they should be on the figures..which to me backs up an overall view you have of them..and probably backs up many peoples view this season that neither of them have pulled any trees up..i certainly haven't noticed many plaudits flying their way
 
SlimChance said:
If you could get this data it would be hugely beneficial. If be shocked if someone is not doing this already. If you had 1000 races per jockey you would learn a lot.
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you can learn a lot already though Slim ..plenty of in depth analysis of each jockey on that site

he has the betfair sp data on there..would just need to use it instead of sp

would it tell you anything more though?

if a horse is actually a 2/1 shot...and then drifts to 6/1...it would be expected to win like a 6/1 shot on the figures...or are you saying that such a horse is not trying so will win a lot less than a 6/1 shot does?

a few years ago you could analyse this with RSB software..you could see when a horse was forecast 2/1 and drifted to say 6/1..and how often it won for any yard..i found with that that the 2/1 drifter did actually win about as expected according to sp..no more or less than one that had shortened from 12/1 to 6/1
 
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EC1 said:
you can learn a lot already though Slim ..plenty of in depth analysis of each jockey on that site

he has the betfair sp data on there..would just need to use it instead of sp

would it tell you anything more though?

if a horse is actually a 2/1 shot...and then drifts to 6/1...it would be expected to win like a 6/1 shot on the figures...or are you saying that such a horse is not trying so will win a lot less than a 6/1 shot does?

a few years ago you could analyse this with RSB software..you could see when a horse was forecast 2/1 and drifted to say 6/1..and how often it won for any yard..i found with that that the 2/1 drifter did actually win about as expected according to sp..no more or less than one that had shortened from 12/1 to 6/1
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The SP can be minipulated whereas the Betfair line at the off is as close to the 100% line we will ever get. Unfortunantley the forecast odds are too subjective to be reliable analytically.
 
Tom was a late arrival with Tony Elves at Sir Henry's memorial today.Nasty gashes down one side of his boat as well as shades on , covering up what looked like a nasty shiner. Any idea if he's had a fall recently/over the weekend ?
 
I wonder whether Queally is going to be stable jockey for Lady C next year - Doyle now rides the Abdulla horses and Hughes retained the ride on Hamelin yesterday although Queally was at Leicester . Perhaps he will go to Michael Bell instead and just ride for Lady C as one option for her ? Or maybe some owners are choosing other jockeys like K Abdulla ?
 
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