Tom Scudamore

Sh1T just when it was getting interesting:lol:

EC I just don't think that many highlighted crap rides are crap rides.

Just today I was discussing Joseph O'Brien's ride on Australia when beaten by Ryan Moore on The Great Gatsby.

I have one friend saying Joseph went too soon and another saying it was a crap ride he can't ride a finish.

My own take on that is that he certainly never went too soon and the lad is a very good jockey who is as good as most in a finish.

He just doesn't hold a candle to Moore, most don't. who would have won on either horse riding either in exactly the same way they were ridden, but punters fail to see it that way.........it's 99% of the time O'Brien is useless not Moore is superior
and that bugs the hell out of me.

You state Tom Scudamore is a terrible judge of pace and I think that's complete tosh.

Judging pace is one of the most important factors in race riding and a bad judge of pace wouldn't win 10 races in a season never mind 100 as Tom Scudamore looks likely to do.

Plus as sure as God made little green apples he wouldn't be riding for the Pipes if you were correct on that score.

I will end up by saying this:- If you can afford to start a season 100 Tom Scudamore winners down because you think he's a bad judge of pace and a dodgy jockey then you have more money than marbles
 
Just caught up with this thread.

In summary EC has put forward a well reasoned case that Scu's pace judgement isn't what it should be. Tanlic has basically just said 'that's bollocks and you can't be a judge of jockeys because you've never ridden a racehorse'.

I agree with EC.

I've ridden hundreds of racehorses (not that it's relevant) and I always regard Scu as a half stone handicap. Of course he wins races - I'd win some races if I rode for Pipe (and lost two stone), but he doesn't win many he shouldn't win, and loses plenty he should.

As EC says, the idea it was a non-trier is laughable when it went off 11-8 having never run under rules, as is the idea that it's probably useless because it's a point to pointer (Denman?).


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Using times is a mugs game 95% of the time. You simple can't judge how soft soft ground is or how good good ground is.

Nor do you know how much difference it makes between racing on turf used and virgin turf.

All on Good to Soft Voy Por Ustedes recorded a faster time winning the QMCC than Master Minded when he beat him by 20 lengths and had Sprinter Sacre been there would have trailed in 20 lengths behind Voy Por Ustedes if we are to believe what times tell us.

However harshly put, i think thats a fair point if true. Im very doubtful about times in NH racing for all sorts of reasons.

I also find it odd (and frankly pretty unbelievable) that any jockey who was "half a stone" worse than average would be used by a top five stable. Im not a fan of TS but sense a lot of this is well OTT
 
tiggers1972 said:
I must be missing something, if Scu was that bad he'd be out of work.
Western Warhorse in the Arkle????
If that was a Ruby ride everyone would be waxing lyrical.
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Agree entirely. That was an extremely well judged ride (if memory serves me right).
 
That's one ride though. Sam Robson has a test century but he's not the best opening batsman in the world is he?

EC - do you have your stats on expected win percentage for jump jocks? Be interested to see what they say about Scu relative to others.


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I'm not convinced that the ride on Western Warhorse commands particular praise. He was sent to the front immediately, as he always has been, then settled in behind when it became clear Champagne Fever wanted to go on. He hit a flat spot at the top of the hill. Scu started getting animated coming down the hill and then the horse rallied for pressue up the hill.

A tenacious ride yes but to my eye offered no evidence of a man blessed with a good judgement of pace - but to be fair didn't provide evidence to the contrary either.

The horse's subsequent run at Aintree clearly did however.
 
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BennyB said:
EC - do you have your stats on expected win percentage for jump jocks? Be interested to see what they say about Scu relative to others.


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I don't, but i have done Tom's for the last fortnight and will let them build up. If anyone has access to any NH jockeys results with the sp included then i can work it out..or they can.

These are Tom S's figures for the last 2 weeks..bear in mind we looking at a small sample until season gets going.

A/E is price v performance...100% means a jockey is riding to market expectation

38 rides
Expected wins 8.49
Actual Wins 7
A/E = 82%

His "set the pace" figures are

10 rides
Expected wins 3.07
Actual wins 2
A/E = 65%





found his last 70 rides...A/E = 80.2%
 
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Geezus Benny you said : he doesn't win many he shouldn't win, and loses plenty he should............Now you are asking for stats?

I would have thought if you had something to say at least you'd know what you were talking about before chipping in.

The fact is Tom Scu has a 23% strike rate for the season and has won near on quarter if a million in prize money for the owners

He has a better strike rate than the likes of top jocks Jason McQuire , Richard Johnson, Sam Twiston Davies, Hadon Frost and Noel Feily.

The telling point is he's ridden over 100 fewer horses than Richard Johnson but only 8 winners less.

Now we got expected wins.... ??????

She won a mickey mouse race in bumfukidahao they paid x amount she's trained by David Piipe she's 11/8 but got no form but she should win because she has a shiny coat :lol:

Wish I had a quid for everyone of them that turned out to be useless.

Don't really want to comment on expected wins....I stopped reading the Beano when I was 8 years old
 
don't bite Benny

it reminds me of the old lads i used to hear in the betting shops in the 70's..died in the woolers who wouldn't understand how to analyse anything,..they only understand number of winners.

Toms AE is pretty good for a jump jockey as it happens...but there isn't much point putting anything else up..like i said..i've seen this sort before..you can waste weeks on them and they still don't know what you are talking about or ever learn anything..they know it all

best let him spout..waste his own time
 
No need to get so wound up about this one chaps.
My own view is that if you feel he's an awful judge of pace then that is a good thing for you as this creates angles on races you can then exploit. I remember when I was questioning Jonjo's training form a few years back someone saying to me 'why don't you just start laying them'. Must admit what gives me a kick as a punter is backing winners, but they had a point.
In any event, sooner or later owners will surely lose faith if he is messing their chances up and he won't be riding those good horses?
 
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Let's open this out a bit. No stats needed. Gut hunches will do.

Which 'top' jockeys, flat or NH, do you view as a negative if they're on one you fancy?

Here are my starters (in no particular order):

Tom Scu
Richard Johnson
Graham Lee
Tom Queally
[not to mention Hayley Turner]

And I know someone who sees AP as a negative.
 
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Backing certain trainers is a bigger thing for me.
Some tracks I'm hesitant to even back at, both flat and jumps, as my brain knows my strike rate isn't as good at them. Others places however, Chepstow and Ascot on the jumps for example, I really look forward to.
 
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I confess that I'm not a fan of Jonners.....though I concede that my opinion is probably tainted by an unfallible ability to back him when he's at his worst (Garde La Victoire ride at Aintree being a good example).

I think he lacks confidence - particularly at the business-end of a hurdle race - and that this is transmitted to his mount. I'm sure there are examples of some great hurdle rides from him, but I can't have the useless fu*cker in any way, shape or form.

In my view, jockey selection is a very minor part of the overall puzzle. As long as they are generally competent, that's usually enough for me, and I rarely see them as the difference between winning and losing (unless they're there to put the anchor out). It's possibly because I don't bet in low-grade races, that I rarely see issues with horses patently going off too fast.
 
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It's very marginal for me too. Often bet without really knowing who's riding. Or I have looked and not given too much thought.

Say what you like about Johnson, he's the only jockey I've met and it's hard to believe that any others are as intelligent funny and genuinely a really nice guy
 
On the flat though, I never liked seeing spencer on a mount and like everyone, more than keen to see the genius Ryan aboard
McCoy is without doubt a positive for certain horses. No doubt about that
 
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I still think that if Scu was as bad as people are making out he would not be retained by Pipe.
It's all personal opinion and the one that i don't care for much is Carberry, he rides the same race every time, anchored out the back.
 
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tiggers1972 said:
I still think that if Scu was as bad as people are making out he would not be retained by Pipe.
It's all personal opinion and the one that i don't care for much is Carberry, he rides the same race every time, anchored out the back.
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Agree.
 
I'll bite, but only to ask Tanlic this: if a jockey rides 100 even money shots and has a 23% strike rate, does that strike rate alone make him a good jockey. No. Is he a better jockey than one who rides 100 8/1 shots and has a 23% strike rate? No. That's why EC's analysis is more sophisticated than yours.

Your other point about the p2p in 'bumfukidaho' seems to be implying pipes don't know the time of day with their horses too, which patently isn't the case.

In summary, it's you that has the arguments of an 8yo. My 13 month old son probably has a better grasp (well, he would if he could talk)...


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Spencer in small fields has to be the best example of one to avoid. Holds them up even if there's a moderate pace and loses loads of races he should win.

Was never a fan of Mick Fitz when he was riding, always tended to avoid his mounts. Andrew Thornton can be fairly hopeless, notwithstanding his amazing win on Kingscliff when the reins snapped.

Amateur races and hunter chases are interesting from a jockey perspective as the difference between the best, the average and the worst is huge. Can be a real angle if you know who's good and who isn't.


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Yes. Absolutely right. Always the same way of riding. Which was more about his limitations than strengths. I really didnt like him at all
 
That's a question anyone will give the same answer to

However Tom Scudamore never started his career riding as many short price horses as he does nowadays, no one does and never got there because he didn't ride a lot of EC "unexpected" winners did he?


This expected winners is a load of tosh..Pipe, Fahey, PN, SMS, McManus , NJH horses or those ridden by Ruby McCoy Hughsie etc attract money above what their actual form justifies every day of the week which leads to a totally false result in that sort of calculation.

I'd rather get stuck into a short priced favourite from an average yard with form that doesn't add up with a half decent jockey on board because you can be certain it's money that's made him shot and not punters backing the horse because the trainer or jockey is high profile. McCoy of course is an exception to the rule and could win Grade 1 on a beach donkey

Really I am not interested in you bringing EC into your posts if you want to debate it and you have so much knowledge as you claim about the game let's hear what you have to say and stop hanging on to the guys apron strings to try and improve on poor unsupported posting by yourself.

As far as David Pipe goes I believe he has an excellent grasp of the game but unfortunately for us the Pipes are some of the shrewdest men in the game who wouldn't show you a birds nest.

The yard have a lot more going for them when it comes to betting than normal punters and you simply can't be sure that if a horse is 5/4 from that yard that he is a 5/4 shot.

Betfair tends to be a better guide The Pipes don't have to be involved because faces can't help themselves and when one isn't as good as you might think they will lay you all day.

If SP's told us everything we'd all be millionaires. Assuming a horse should win because of it's price alone is a mugs game and the bookies lap it up. They think nothing of shortening a horse up, having takes peanuts for it, when they think it will entice the public to get stuck in. Their risk is far less than it should be and profits can be higher than they should be.

How can EC build that into his figures.............quite simply he can't.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Let's open this out a bit. No stats needed. Gut hunches will do.

Which 'top' jockeys, flat or NH, do you view as a negative if they're on one you fancy?

Here are my starters (in no particular order):

Tom Scu
Richard Johnson
Graham Lee
Tom Queally
[not to mention Hayley Turner]

And I know someone who sees AP as a negative.
Click to expand...

I think we've all got some.

I worry if Andrew Tinkler is on one.

Haley Turner worries me I wouldn't trust having a big bet on her these days is she was riding Frankel

Hughsie on one not good enough to win but should be placed is dodgier than playing hopscotch on the M1 on a Friday after work.

Leighton Aspell has lost the plot and should call it a day
 
Tanlic said:
[Bookies] think nothing of shortening a horse up, having takes peanuts for it, when they think it will entice the public to get stuck in. Their risk is far less than it should be and profits can be higher than they should be.
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I've been trying to tell people this for years. I've no concrete evidence for it, it's always been a gut feeling. Especially with ante-post stuff and especially where the Grand national is concerned.

And of course we all know they shorten the front five or six up significantly in the very big 'public' races in the last ten minutes before the off. Basterts.

Anyroads... looking back through my print-offs for last Saturday, here's another negative [for me]: Tom O'Brien
 
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