Tom Scudamore

clivex said:
It's very marginal for me too. Often bet without really knowing who's riding. Or I have looked and not given too much thought.

Say what you like about Johnson, he's the only jockey I've met and it's hard to believe that any others are as intelligent funny and genuinely a really nice guy
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In my day Ron Barry, Jonjo, Tony Charlton, the then young John Quinn, David Goulding, Brad, Alan Brown, Donal Nolan, Mark Dwyer, Phil Tuck, Frank Levy, Sammy Stringer, Colin Tinkler and his brother Nigel were all out of the same mould. The crack was unreal and if someone wasn't extracted the pee pee out of someone else then they must have been sleeping. Some of us ended up in Acapulco and it got so far out of hand it is the only time the captain of the Jolly Rodger turned the boat round and refused to go any further. They were as wild as wild can be but take any of them aside and you would get one serious thinking man. Only guy I met and never liked was that piece of manure Dermot Browne who within minutes of meeting him I knew exactly what he was. I also met Francome but couldn't say I knew him but he is/was stone mad in the funniest sense of the words. The story goes he slipped something into Bill Smith's hands (we all have one) when he was being questioned by the stewards why a bunch of them had taken the wrong course.....Champion Jockey and regarded by all who knew him as champion prankster. Things like that went on all the time but when that tape went up it was like they flicked a switch and Mr Serious took over

I doubt if it has changed much Clive. People in racing don't suffer fools gladly and if you don't have a great sense of humour and are very smart you'll never see in the inside of a weighing room unless it's by family attachment. If you did and didn't know the crack from the serious you'd end up in tears and running back to your mummy. :)
 
You may or may not know I put Don't Push It up on TRF 7 months before the race at 60.

On the day of the race I intended to lay some off if he hit single figures which it never did.:D

He was showing at around 20-22 on the machine a few minutes before the off and I was totally unaware there was a would be gamble going on and he was down to about 9/1 at the course.
With virtually no time left on the click DPI's price dropped like a stone on the machine to 10.5. But where was it coming from you have to ask

That gamble was never the gamble it was made out to be by the media. I even read one report saying JP had skint the bookies for 3 milion by some nutcase.

The truth is and Rory Delagy will agree with me 100% on this.

Every year the bookies take what they think the punters will latch on to and cut his price like there is a huge gamble going on when in truth there is not.

The punters think it's real and jump in and most years the bookies clean up, not always from one end but from another.

Unfortunately for them with Don't Push It the horse most said wouldn't stay did and won.

It is very easy for bookies to cut a horse attract money and lay it off with Betfair and when you see money come as late as that you can be pretty sure Joe Bloggs had a tenner on at the false price of 7/1 and the bookie had 7 pounds of it on at 10/1 on the machine and kept the rest come what may. It's called trading and Betfair can't stop it but I believe do have special discount for people who win over a certain amount.

I don't know what went on with Suzie and I am not saying the Pipes knew she wouldn't win, nor am I saying she was a false favourite and someone in the know laid her for a right few grand.

We all know the Pipes don't gamble it's all just rumours and they are as pure as the driven snow don't we?...........sorry have to go, I my head is nipping, I think I need a blood change...oops sorry oil change :lol:

I am just having a bit of crack but anything is possible in this game and in this instance I can't come upwith a reason why she ran so bad but it had nothing to do with Tom Scu misjudging anything of that I am sure
 
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This expected winners is a load of tosh..Pipe, Fahey, PN, SMS, McManus , NJH horses or those ridden by Ruby McCoy Hughsie etc attract money above what their actual form justifies every day of the week which leads to a totally false result in that sort of calculation.

you generalising here imo... yes there is some truth in your statement....but its not as sweeping as you are suggesting. You are overestimating the effect of the stable/jockey which you seem to suggest is putting forth lots of false priced favourites and shorter than should be prices that other stables don't generate. The fact is..most are that price because they win in proportion to their odds..over a period of time...simply because they are better horses.

The only obvious exception to measuring by price ....and has been for years is AP McCoy..you cannot analyse his results using price and expect it to reflect his ability as there is that big difference you are suggesting re the actual chance of the horse winning to price ratio.

But I don't need to know how good he is from figures...i already know..the whole idea of AE over a period of time is to see who is riding above market expectation...and the market is the prime consistent over a series of horse races that does equate year in and year out...even money shots win in line with their odds...as do 2/1 shots etc...over a period of time.

I'll try and demonstrate my point,,,,I'll pick out of your list..because there is lots of data..Richard Hughes...you are saying that his AE will not in any way reflect the horses chance as he is a top jockey and he rides for a big stable that has lots of false favourites due to both those reasons...and is overbet....making AE of no use in cases like this.

These are the results of every favourite that has run in the last 4 years on the flat turf. courtesy of Flatstats:

Win 4727
Runners 14882
A/E = 0.93

a remarkable figure in itself...the market showing just how accurate it is..its 93% correct

These are Richard Hughes figures when riding the favourite in the last 4 years.

Win 547
Runners 1503
A/E = 0.97

Those figures dispel your theory that people like RH are constantly over bet so that AE figures won't mean anything. If you were right he would have an AE in the 70-80% area as the market would not be reflecting the real chance of the horses he rides.

AP McCoy for the last month has an AE of 80%...the reason for that is exactly what you say....yes the market isn't reflecting reality.....but he is virtually a one off...and 99.999% of jockeys will not skew the AE figures in the way you say..as demonstrated above with RH's rides.

You are too quick to dismiss what you haven't actually looked into in depth imo.

You also seem to expect anything that's put forward to be absolutely cast iron..or its no good...that's not possible with anything in this game..we don't even get accurate ground conditions reported in the official form book for a start.

It seems to me that when people don't agree ....or want to rubbish something... they get all picky and want 100% success or its sh1t...which is laughable in a game with so many imponderables making 100% anything completely impossible.

We have to try and do the best with what we have...and one of those things we have that's near that 100% is the betting market ...over a period of time..its the one remarkable benchmark we can use to our advantage...but you dismiss it out of hand..which is up to you...but imo you are wrong.
 
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In that case the McCoy effect makes those riding regularly against him look (a bit) better than they are?
 
Sure it's brilliant.......brilliant job of pulling the wool over your eyes.


Let's look closer at Richard Hughes

He's been Champion Jockey or runner up how many times in the last 5 years?

Consider who he rides for and the quality of horse would you or would you not expect him to be right up there at the head the table when it comes to wins on odds on favourites e.g. ?

I know I would

Not a bit of it he is nowhere near the top he is in about 19th place which EC fails to mention.

You can throw figures about all day, spend half your life trying to find a way to successful gambling but you will never succeed

My time and my lifestyle simply doesn't allow for that ....life is way too short to be sitting at a computer day in day out with no or little reward.

I prefer to take the easy way round things at keep it simple and up to now have done really well doing so.



My advice to anyone is forget figures and simply use your eyes and look for that special horse then back the backside of him.

It certainly works for me...........I am not going to start listing the big wins there all on TRF but if I mention Zarkava Zenyatta Binocular Sprinter Sacre enough said.

The only horse I care about at the moment is Sprinter Sacre...If he wins the Tingle Creek it won't matter financially to me if he gets beat in the QMCC because my stake will be back in my bank account...... if he loses both I'll be 5 figures poorer.

Maybe I am crazy putting most of my betting eggs in one basket but so far so good and I simply can't be arsed with people throwing figures around that bore the nuts off me.

So EC and I are like chalk and cheese and he may impress some people with his figures but to me and I don't mean to be disrespectful EC you're as mad as a March hare..go out and get laid mate is much more fun :lol:
 
Just noticed there's betting on Betfair for the Tingle Creek.

You may have to wait if you want to back him because I just took everything that was up which wasn't a lot .:cool:

As the saying goes you gonna shoot the shoot don't talk

Sprinter.jpg

What time do Stan James and Paddy Power open? :ninja:
 
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Race 7 - 4:40pm THE 32RedBingo.com MAIDEN OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (CLASS 6) (DIV I)
Tom Scudamore, the rider of SUSIE SHEEP, placed fourth, reported that the filly stopped quickly. The Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination of the filly failed to reveal any abnormalities.


Would suggest the problem was with the horse, rather than the ride she got.
 
Thanks Reet I'll send you the tenner in the morning:lol:

How did this examination come about? Did the stewards order it or did David Pipe ask for one?

I presume it was the former but like to check
 
Sure it's brilliant.......brilliant job of pulling the wool over your eyes.
Let's look closer at Richard Hughes
He's been Champion Jockey or runner up how many times in the last 5 years?
Consider who he rides for and the quality of horse would you or would you not expect him to be right up there at the head the table when it comes to wins on odds on favourites e.g. ?
I know I would
Not a bit of it he is nowhere near the top he is in about 19th place which EC fails to mention.

No, i've actually not pulled any wool over anyone's eyes, i've provided you with concrete evidence that the prices of R Hughes rides when favourite are not falsely short as you said they would be. You are now trying to pull the wool though by picking out "odds on" as though its some kind of benchmark..which it isn't. "Odds on" is just a higher % of winners needed to rides taken...you don't specify what odds..just "odds on".

I didn't mention "odds on"as its already covered in his overall figures...I didn't pick out 2/1 - 6/4 range either..as they covered in his overall figures...i didn't pick out 7/4 to 5/2 shots either...as they are covered in the overall figures.

AE accounts for price of horse..that's the whole point.....that you seem to be missing.

Your obsession with "odds on" seems a bit odd to me...its like you believe that that price band 10/11 to 1/1000...always wins ..so is some kind of accurate measuring tool....its not ..its just a generalised name for a range of % of chance....the 6/4 to 3/1 range doesn't have a punters "name" ..but its just a relevant when it comes to judging how something performs against expectation.

You can throw figures about all day, spend half your life trying to find a way to successful gambling but you will never succeed

So you are saying that there are no successful gamblers anywhere..because reading form is using figures..in fact if you don't read figures you are struggling with most parts of horse racing full stop.

I won't comment on that..i'll let Slim and a few others challenge it...i'm not remotely interested in whether people can or can't make it pay.

My time and my lifestyle simply doesn't allow for that ....life is way too short to be sitting at a computer day in day out with no or little reward.

So if thats the case why do you come on here spouting about stuff you obviously have no interest in..like this aspect we discussing here...and from evidence of what i've read on this thread.. don't seem to understand even what you are criticising...but you just keep on.. trying to make me look a dick...for what reason i don't know.

Its a bit like me ..who likes music very much..but can't play any instrument....going on a music forum and telling people they are playing their instruments wrong.

I'm not being funny Tanlic..but you like your way of doing things re horse racing and are very happy with it..other people use their methods..and i can tell you I am very happy with my ways.

I don't criticise how you pick horses..so tbh i'm not sure what you trying to achieve here.
 
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reet hard said:
Race 7 - 4:40pm THE 32RedBingo.com MAIDEN OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (CLASS 6) (DIV I)
Tom Scudamore, the rider of SUSIE SHEEP, placed fourth, reported that the filly stopped quickly. The Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination of the filly failed to reveal any abnormalities.


Would suggest the problem was with the horse, rather than the ride she got.
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thanks for that Reet..at least we know it didn't stop through any ailment..just early exertion
 
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I am also calling bullsh!t that you've had a five figure sum on Sprinter Sacre. Five figures in Thai baht maybe.

Who laid you the bet and at what odds?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
oh..things might get a bit hairy after that i think....i'll leave the thread to you guys..its run its course for me..i've no interest in people's personal betting whatsoever
 
There`s more than one way to skin a cat. Tanlic has his way and EC (and Gigs) have their way, which on the evidence they regularly supply here is very profitable. Why rubbish their profitable methods?
 
Don't forget the element luck plays, this is not a precise science, they are not machines, when backing them training them or riding them you need the rub of the green at times.
 
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marble said:
Don't forget the element luck plays, this is not a precise science, they are not machines, when backing them training them or riding them you need the rub of the green, imo.
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trust you Marb..i got to comment on that..coz its a good point.

I have actually mentioned this earlier...when people make their own mind up with no figures or get info...and horse gets beat for whatever...they don't analyse to the 100 degrees why it lost..or come on saying all info is rubbish because it lost

but when a stat is wrong once in 20 years..ooh stats are rubbish..they've been wrong once in 20 years..or a horse that runs a fast time gets beat nto..its ooh speed figures are sh1t

all methods of selection are going to be wrong many times due to many factors including an element of luck..trouble is when its a numbers admirer thats wrong..his method is then rubbished immediately by a certain section
 
I am certainly not out to make you look like a fool Ec.

I have tried with various methods to find an easy way to come out on top but somehow always ended up losing or unwilling to put the effort in.

I didn't just jump in. I spent nearly a month using a bot which allows you to play on Betfair. Everything is the same as if you are playing with real money but you are not.

I was placing bets using a recommended staking plan as if it were real money and I won almost every day.......went from 100 pounds liability per race to 400
By the end of the period I am Thousands in front. I even had a winning run of 23. My idea was to lay 1 horse a race ......no hopers we call them.

So I decided to as you would to give it a go. It was some time ago and as soon as I uploaded money into my number 2 account I went straight to the first race picked a horse out and laid him.

The horse was Benbane Head he was about 16 maybe 20 can't remember but 2 were withdrawn and by the time the race was off he was 8.5 or something the favourite fell on his backside and Benbane Head hacked up...........a few races later PD Evans win with a totally unfancied one............never recovered from that and never tried that again


I have tried place only on well fancied horses and despite the stats saying I should wi I managed to lose.............Multi-dutching has worked for me but you are almost always betting odds on and you have to be there all night (Remember the first race starts here about 8 or 9pm)......I was winning about 6000 baht a day doing that but talk about time consuming........It got to the stage where I would think if I went out it would cost me twice a much because I wouldn't win my 6k........gave that the boot but still do it between bets.

If you or anyone else want to spend all day watching racing and the rest of your time studying stats or whatever then good on you but I am somewhere between it not being worth the time and not rewarding enough for the effort.

And Benny not that I have to answer you sunshine but when I say I will be 5 figures poorer what I mean is 5 figures poorer than I would be if he won........not I have 5 figures on him.

You however are one cheeky sod and seem to doubt I have backed him so here's a little challenge for you I will keep reasonable on.

Go put up a Lay at 2.6 on Betfair for Sprinter Sacre for the Tingle Creek which is a fair price as he is 11/8 with the bookies..........PM me a time when you are going to do it.........lets say 500 quid and I'll take it instantly........ if you prefer more let me know.

Tell you what...I can say I backed Sprinter Sacre off the boards and proved it :lol: can you do the same
 
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I can't handle stats EC. I think what has past can't affect the future at all.

What I mean is what Crisp did X amount of years ago has no bearing on what Weird eg Al will do tomorrow plus there are too many stats and adding one stat can change everything.

I remember someone saying only Royal Relief had won the QMCC twice with a year between them out of X amount of races so Moscow Flyer couldn't possibly win........Someone should have told the horse that.

You show me any decent horse in the Grand National and I'll find a stat to say he will win and someone else will show you a sta that says he wont.

I suppose they are agood guide to 2 year old races but apart from that I think your better picking your own
 
Tanlic said:
I can't handle stats EC. I think what has past can't affect the future at all.

What I mean is what Crisp did X amount of years ago has no bearing on what Weird eg Al will do tomorrow plus there are too many stats and adding one stat can change everything.

I remember someone saying only Royal Relief had won the QMCC twice with a year between them out of X amount of races so Moscow Flyer couldn't possibly win........Someone should have told the horse that.

You show me any decent horse in the Grand National and I'll find a stat to say he will win and someone else will show you a sta that says he wont.

I suppose they are agood guide to 2 year old races but apart from that I think your better picking your own
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I don't particularly sit in any area as being this or that good tbh Tanlic..whatever people do and it gets results is all right by me. Stats are a bit of fun that i do look at for certain big races...i do like the thing Swedish Chef does..thats an area i've used in the past..where you look at certain races trainers do well in..maiden races and novice hurdles can be favourite targets for trainers..SC has put some good ones up over the last year

Over the years i've tried every approach known to man...and even then i still keep looking even when i have a number of areas that seem to work well. I now have a set pattern of what i look at every day and am comfy in that. I am a methodical person..i need to know that what i do gets a certain result and then i want to rely on it in future. Future use is what i want to rely on. Thats why info isn't my bag..yes i've backed a few from people on here and appreciate them being put up..but in my mind i couldn't rely on that as i can't control it....i need to be self sufficient for future use.

I don't think its a healthy pursuit trying to win money at this game...and i fully see where you are coming from saying you don't want to be looking all day at racing. I've done that in the past and its no good for you. My approach now is to look at areas each day i know i can rely on..ignore the races i don't like...which is most of them in the week.

just to add if i have judged Tom wrongly then i'll be first to hold my hands up..like i said..i only posted the thread because it were two rides in 40 minutes that looked bad to my eyes...maybe they were maybe they weren't..lets see what happens in future. I don't single jocks out..especially the jump boys who are very brave people...but at same time if something looks glaringly bad i'll probably comment
 
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EC1 said:
i fully see where you are coming from saying you don't want to be looking all day at racing. I've done that in the past and its no good for you. My approach now is to look at areas each day i know i can rely on..ignore the races i don't like...which is most of them in the week.
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Wholeheartedly agree. I take my hat off to those of you who can even be arsed to look at midweek racing let alone bet on it.

I spent about 30 mins today updating the results of the races I'd analysed ahead of last Saturday's fare (mainly the more valuable TV stuff) and then another 15 maybe working out some time ratings for them. I won't be looking at the racing again until maybe Thursday (for Saturday's flat races) or Friday (for Saturday's jumps races). That's it other than watching some of the races on Saturday. That pattern will be the same until the end of the flat turf season when I'll have Thursdays off as well.

There are other things in life, like getting together with the brothers for lunch, etc.
 
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