BAJAN CAN GIVE NICHOLLS THE BLUES
3.20
TOTESPORT TROPHY HURDLE (HANDICAP)
GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)
(4yo+)
Winner £85,530.00
2m110y GD-SFT
The Runners:
PUNJABI
High class juvenile hurdler last season who was a creditable 4th in the Triumph Hurdle before chasing home Katchit at Aintree. Gained a workmanlike success in Punchestown afterwards but it has to be said that he was disappointing on his seasonal reappearance behind Straw Bear at Kempton. No easy task carrying top weight here and best watched for the time being.
MEPHISTO
Useful on the flat for Luca Cumani and made a good impression over hurdles as a novice when beating Faasel and Moulin Riche in competitive affairs. Plagued with injury since but there was signs of a return to form when a fair 5th to Harchibald at Newcastle and he ran a big race until blowing up. Mark of 140 looks fair enough on that evidence and cant be totally ruled out in a race where a strong pace will suit him.
WHISPERED PROMISES
Smart hurdler in the past for R. Brookhouse and had some form which ties him in with the likes of Noland and United. Looked better than ever on his return for David Pipe and he has a 4lb pull with Five Dream on there Cheltenham meeting. This less demanding crack is more than likely to suit him and he could be interesting each way at a fair price.
PIGEON ISLAND
Has run some cracking races this season in some leading handicaps and none better than when staying on strongly to be 5th to Champion Hurdle favourite Sizing Europe in the Greatwood Hurdle. Ground far too quick for him last time at Ascot and today’s softer conditions with a strong pace likely look ideal for him. Has continued to run his race all season and is sure to be finishing to good effect late on.
KINGS QUAY
5lb higher than when beating Chivalry at Wincanton in November and was well beaten over a longer trip last time. Strong pace likely to suit but this looks tougher than what he had achieved in the past.
CARACCIOLA
Tough and genuine performer who often gives his all in leading handicap hurdles. Below par on his last two hurdles efforts but is a type that can go well fresh and comes here reported in good form at home. A cracking 2nd in the Cesareswitch in November he will appreciate the ground here today and its interesting to see he was a close up 4th off a 1lb higher mark last season. A good sign seeing Mick Fitz opt for him over Punjabi and he rates an interesting type at decent odds.
STREETS OF GOLD
Decent handicapper who acts well on this surface and showed his true ability when beating Deutschland last time at Leopardstown. Was demoted for impeding the 2nd on that occasion but clearly a competitive sort who can handle the hurly burly of a big field. Life made more difficult by having to carry 16lb more here but could still give a good showing, despite looking harshly treated at the weights.
JAYO
Decent form when one paced 5th in the Pierse Hurdle at Leopardstown last month but has to shoulder an 11lb higher mark here and that wont be easy. Likely to be suited by the strong gallop based on the way he stayed on last time and this ground should be ideal. Still improving all the time and possibly a bit overpriced at 25/1.
DOCTOR DAVID
Winner of fair race at Haydock in December but always struggling off 16lb higher mark next time out. Handicapper has since dropped him 2lb but he doesn’t look well treated in what is a very competitive contest.
MISSIS POTTS
Hardy mare who found the ground too quick for her when down the field in the Ladbroke Hurdle. Was going well until a mistake that day and the drop of 3lb by the handicapper looks rather fair. The yards horses are in excellent form at present and conditions are ideal for her this afternoon. Very impressive next time on her chasing debut and held in high regard by her yard. The strong pace will really suit her here and back on ground she relishes she has decent each way claims despite a massive price of 50/1.
FLEET STREET
A winner by 2.5L of a competitive handicap hurdle at Newbury last March on similar ground and only 5lb higher after a couple of disappointing efforts on ground too quick for him. Pleasing efforts subsequently over fences and would have gone close but for trying to take the 4th last home with him at Wincanton last time. Switching back to hurdles today and the yard feel he is off a decent mark. Ground no problem for him today and on the form of his March course and distance win he could be well treated here. Yard in fine form at present and another to consider at long odds each way.
PALOMAR
Solid flat performer for Roger Charlton who took his time to get the hang of things over hurdles. Jumping and keenness accounted for his earlier flops but he has been very impressive this season racking up three wins from a mark of 97 – 110. Handicapper took no chances after an impressive win over Christmas at Kempton and his 22lb ride will make things extremely tough this time. Ground and trip no problem but a raise of 22lb certainly has to raise questions over his chances.
KINGS REVENGE
Creditable 3rd in the Gerry Fielden in November and then stepped up on that effort to run a good 3rd to Jack The Giant at Ascot in the Ladbroke Hurdle. Consistent sort who should have no problems handling today’s conditions but always worth baring in mind that he is going up in the weights without winning and is 8lb higher now than his last win. Likely to run his race again but more of a place chance than a winning one.
VICTRAM
Hasn’t won the races a horse of his ability should have but often runs his race and rarely runs a really bad race. Missed the Pierse Hurdle having been kicked in the paddock and connections feel he has the ground and trip ideal for him. 2lb higher than when a never nearer 6th in this race last season but this years race looks more suitable and he is likely to make his move a bit earlier. Comes from a yard who knows what it takes to win a big handicapped and cant be totally dismissed with plenty going for him here. He should be playing his hand late.
PLATIN GROUNDS
Dual winner at the start of the season and has been running well since in leading handicaps. Not disgraced when staying on well at Cheltenham last time in a hot novices contest but handicapper looks to have him where he wants him at present and he looks likely to do better over further. Sure to be running on late but a place is about the best he can hope for.
ROMAN VILLA
Another like many that has been running well in defeat and he didn’t find as much as expected when 4th in the Pierse Hurdle last time. Hard to know whether he actually wants to go through with his effort or not and has proven a good in running lay as he has traded short on a few occasions. Mark of 131 looks harsh enough now and he looks in the handicappers grip at present. This ground may also be on the slow side here and Im keen to take him on win and place today.
FIVE DREAM
Really surprised connections when winning at Sandown but that race has worked out well with the 4th Fredensborg running out an easy winner yesterday. Showed a really willing attitude to score at Cheltenham last time and looks well in under his 4lb penalty here. Likes to come off a decent pace which he is sure to get here and whilst this flatter course is not totally ideal for him he certainly has to come under consideration.
COUNTY ZEN
Novices have a good record in this race and the Hobbs horses are in really good order at present. Hard to know what to make of his Sandown form but his previous win at Ascot has worked out very well and he is probably just about right at the weights with close up 2nd Blue Bajan. Really gutsy battler who likes to go forward in his races he should be thereabouts coming to the last. Whether he has what it take sup the run in is another question however.
BLUE BAJAN
Doesn’t always find a great deal for pressure and often travels well to find little on the flat. Has looked in a similar mould over hurdles and travelled like the bets horse for much of the race when 2nd at Ascot on his comeback run. Never really had to be asked a serious question to win at Leicester next time and he looks a real poser for the handicapper. He was again impressive last time beating a previous winner and could be well treated off 130 here. Sure to get the strong pace he needs and no surprise to see him come there travelling at the last. I would expect him to turn the forma round with County Zen and to me he looks very well treated in a contest that will suit him down to the ground.
DANCERS SERENADE
Easy winner last time in a competitive hurdle race but the form has since been let down by the 2nd. 11lb rise as a result looks harsh and others look better handicapped on the basis of things.
PACE SHOT
Returned this season in a seller and despite winning well he was well outclassed in a leading handicap hurdle next time out. Handicapper not exactly given a great bit of leniency and is best watched for the time being.
GABIER
Steadily improving sort who ran out a good winner at Exeter earlier in the season. Outclassed in the Lanzarote last time he may struggle for pace over this shorter trip and is probably not this class anyway.
WINGMAN
Easily the pick of the runners from last season’s winning trainer and having done well to beat Kings Revenge on his return he was a fair 3rd in the Paddy Power Hurdle behind Ring The Boss. Was reported as being bogged down that day and whilst 2lb rise doesn’t ease things he will be suited by the strong pace and the drying conditions. Yard in a rich vein of form at present and there is confidence in the yard that suggests this horse will go close to making it two winning years in a row.
MOHAYER
Classy handicapper last season who was far from disgraced in graded company at the back end of the season. Stayed on really well in all three starts this season and still looks on the right side of the handicapper. 4lb better off with Five Dream on their last run and the application of blinkers could add further improvement. More than capable 7lb claimer see’s this horse running off 9st 7lb here and he is sure to be thereabouts if running to his recent form. He is one for any shortlist.
Summary:
Probably the most open of Tote Gold Trophy’s there has been in recent years and only 3 or 4 can be ruled out easily. In the past novices have always seemed to run big races so that points a good case for the likes of County Zen, Platin Grounds and Blue Bajan.
The Irish have rarely made an impact in the race winning it only twice in the last 12 years and leading fancies in the past have often struggled off higher marks than they would carry back home. Streets Of Gold, Victram and Jayo are all horses with ability and whilst they could go well here, they may have to settle for a place at best.
Nicky Henderson had the long time ante post favourite for this in Jack The Giant and his deflection left the way for Five Dream to take up the favourites mantle. A comfortable winner at Sandown he followed up in good style last time at Cheltenham and is sure to run his race once more.
However there are 4 or 5 of these I like in this and all of them have bits and pieces of good value about them.
I will start with
Victram who is our smallest advisement in this years renewal. Aido McGuinness’ gelding doesn’t look brilliantly treated on any of his form but a strong gallop with cut in the ground is key for him and that is something he will definitely get this afternoon. He was far from disgraced at Ascot last time and it was a pointer that he would be coming back to form shortly. 6th in this race last season he was given a bit too much to do by Johnny Farrelly and today’s rider Kevin Tobin has at least ridden him in his last two races. At 33/1 he does look a big price and should warrant a small bet.
Fleet Street is one of 3 runners Nicky Henderson has in the race and whilst stable jockey opts for Caracciola, Fleet Street does appear to be well handicapped to me. Having won off a 5lb lower mark over course and distance in March he has been slightly disappointing. However chasing seemed to brighten him up and he looked in great order when winning on his chasing debut. At Wincanton last time he looked sure to play a hand before a bad mistake and just because he reverts to hurdles here he shouldn’t be written off. He is only 5lb higher than when winning by 2.5L here last season and a reproduction of that effort would make his price tag of 33/1 look very big indeed.
Nigel Twiston Davies is a trainer who keeps his team busy and that can certainly be said of
Pigeon Island who has run no less than ten times already this season. He does seem to be taking his racing brilliantly however and whilst he gives the impression further will suit he has run his best races over 2m, especially when there is cut in the ground and a strong pace. He is one of those horses that always gives his running and despite not looking exactly well handicapped he looks more than capable of making the frame at a fair price.
Mohayer was very close to being my selection for this but I’m not over confident the blinkers are truly needed. He is 4lb well off for his narrow defeat by Five Dream at Cheltenham and with his talented riders 7lb claim I am more than confident he will turn that form around. The prospect of drying ground isn’t exactly ideal but as long as there is still juice in it, it should be fine for this fella. The flatter track will certainly play into his strengths and he could find himself getting first run on some of those more patiently ridden. 18/1 is a big price about a horse who is as consistent as him and its certainly very big when you think the 4/1 favourite is 11lb worse off for a length victory over him.
However the one I expect to score is Andy Turnell’s
BLUE BAJAN. Turnell who won this in 1996 with Squire Silk has gone on record as saying he thinks this horse is a better animal. A classy horse on the flat he probably didn’t win as many races he should have and whilst he has been called some names he does look perfectly genuine. Over hurdles he has again travelled each time as if he was the bets horse in the race and in his last two starts he has had no trouble putting the race to bed late on. Off 128 he does look very well treated and Richard Hughes is the sort of jockey that will suit him, just dropping him in and getting him switched off. He has the ability to make up ground easily and with a good turn of foot he could strike first off the last. The drying ground will only enhance his chances and for me at 6/1 he is a knocking bet and should be the favourite off what is a feather weight.
Mephisto,
Missis Potts and
Wingman are others I expect to be on the premises but for me this should all be about BLUE BAJAN who looks a blot on the handicap to me.
Advised Bets:
2.5PTS EW
BLUE BAJAN @ 8.4 & 2.8
1pt Ew Mohayer @ 20 & 5.2
0.5pt Win & 1pt Place Pigeon Island @ 50 & 8
0.5pts Ew Fleet Street @ 65 & 8
0.25pts Ew Victram @ 42 & 7.4
0.5pts Win saver Wingman @ 24
10.5pts Staked, recommended £5 a point.
20p C.F.C. Blue Bajan, Mohayer, Pigeon Island, Fleet Street, Victram & Wingman
20p C.T.C. Blue Bajan, Mohayer, Pigeon Island, Fleet Street, Victram & Wingman
Good Luck
Chris Beek
He's one of those horses which having always followed him I get a sense of when he's going to run well, and I think he will int his... goes v well fresh too. 
