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Triumph Hurdle 18 March 2022

Considering Nicky Henderson has won the Triumph Hurdle 7 times you would expect a couple of entries from Seven Barrows

The truth is Nicky's only had three NH horses that are now 4 years olds run in the last 9 months

One of those is so slow he couldn't even get to the start at Cheltenham

One is a filly who has yet to see a hurdle

The other belongs to Simon Munir and Issac was a possible runner but has dropped off the radar.

Maybe it's because Nicky is outsourcing more these days through people like Frank Berry, Barry G and others is why there seems to be no younger horses coming up through the ranks
 
15 of the Triumph entries have yet to race over hurdles.

What's the chance one of them wins?

The one I'm looking at is Rubaud at 40/1 for Nicholls. His French form (Group level) might be the best Flat form on offer and, while the likes of Solo disappointed, he didn't appear [in this country] until Kempton in February where he impressed and immediately jumped to the head of the betting.

The current top rated (RPRs) in the field is about 140. There was a time that would have been good enough to deserve favouritism this far out but probably not nowadays.

For me, the likes of Fil D'Or is a good stone inferior to Zanahiyr at this stage last season. There has to be a fair chance there is something better than that lurking somewhere...
 
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15 of the Triumph entries have yet to race over hurdles.

What's the chance one of them wins?

The one I'm looking at is Rubaud at 40/1 for Nicholls. His French form (Group level) might be the best Flat form on offer and, while the likes of Solo disappointed, he didn't appear [in this country] until Kempton in February where he impressed and immediately jumped to the head of the betting.

The current top rated (RPRs) in the field is about 140. There was a time that would have been good enough to deserve favouritism this far out but probably not nowadays.

For me, the likes of Fil D'Or is a good stone inferior to Zanahiyr at this stage last season. There has to be a fair chance there is something better than that lurking somewhere...

Fil D'Or feels like one that goes off short by default.
 
The Trial on Saturday
Iceo
Pied Piper
Interne de Sivola

The Nick W horse is 5/1 at Hills. That's crazy. He has c&d form, the Elliott juvenile might not show up and surely there's a chance Iceo will be just another Kempton lover who folds when he sees a hill
 
Surely Pied Piper goes to the DRF where the fav is a possible non runner.
 
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When I read this "For me, the likes of Fil D'Or is a good stone inferior to Zanahiyr at this stage last season" I thought Fil D'Or must be a false favourite

When I looked closer I realized it yet another another load of never ending shyte from DO

Fil D'Or has done everything aked of him and improved with every run

He beat Lunar Power of levels by 1 1/4 lengths in a Grade 3 then next time gave him 3 lbs and a 7 length thrashing in a grade 2 off a RPR of 140

Zanahiyr at the same time last season also wona grade 2 off a RPR of 134

Zanahiyr then went off at Favourite for the Triumph of a RPR of 145

Fil D'Or current RPR is 154 so how on earth he comes to the conclusion that he is a stone behind Zanahiyr beates the hell out of me.

Watching the grey win last time you could have hung your washing on his reigns from along way out and Davy Russell at no time asked much of him
It will take something very special to lower his colours in the Triumph but that's not being clever on my side.

Anyone with half a clue can see why he's now 2/1 fav from 5/2 for the race and he looks one of the bankers of the meeting
 
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Not a race I usually get involved in ante-post (not since Paddy's Return, I think!), but I've had a few quid on Vadaly at 66's this morning. She's a once-raced (Dieppe hurdle win - form nothing special) Mullins mare in the same ownership as Honeysuckle.

There's no indication she will go in the Triumph, but the owner doesn't have anything else in the race and he might be keen to run.
 
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Here are some profiles I've done for a bunch of the entries yet to race over hurdles in Britain or Ireland from the "prospects to come" thing I linked in the juvenile thread.

https://twitter.com/HarchibaldS/status/1485713223043198986

Delante bf Tom Cooper j1-1-0 (-) – 112
Walk In The Park (Saint Preuil){9-h}(0.52) 1/2 Douvan 1st Arkle Chase (G1), Cheltenham 2016
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/delante
The fillies’ conditions hurdle at Fontainbleau held towards the end of October was won in a time ten seconds slower than the corresponding males’ race and the claimer, by the 17/1 outsider of six who was making her racecourse debut. She jumped slowly for much of the contest and the form of those in behind amounts to very little. Nevertheless, when Delante has her first run for Thomas Cooper, who counts River Liane, Son Amix and Dreux amongst his five ex-French imports) it is unlikely to pass without notice. Relatively poor as the race was, Delante’s performance was not without merit or potential. She did jump slowly in the rear over the first five hurdles and had only one behind turning for home, but was ridden very comfortably and after jumping into the lead at the last, was pushed out to win by three cosy lengths. However, the main intrigue in Delante’s profile lies in her pedigree. By Walk In The Park, notable for producing Douvan and Jonbon, Delante is also a half-sister to the dam of Douvan and Jonbon. Out of Folie Star Gate, who won the 2001 Prix Andre Michel, Delante is also a full-sister to winning chaser Laskof, half-sister to winning pointer Starevitch, and her third dam produced the enduring and talented nineties hurdler Discover d’Auteuil. Prestigious as this family may be, these relatives did not start winning until four years and above and though Walk In The Park has had three winners from eight exported juveniles, the winner to runner rate for three-year-olds who stay in France is just 10.42%. The reasons for Delante being an exciting prospect are obvious, although it would be a surprise if her career was to peak over the coming months.

Fleurman grg Olly Murphy f7-2-1 (85) 91
Mastercraftsman (Montjeu){11-a}(1.09) 3/1 Ravenswood 137 1st 2m6f Handicap Hurdle (128), Ayr 2002
Ralph Beckett has supplied fifteen winning juvenile hurdlers from fifty-five since 2004/05, although the winner to runner rate of 27.27% does overshadow the improvement rate of just 25%. The sales saw two of his fetch six figures for the first time. Zinc White has work to do if he is to justify his £310,000 outlay at Goffs London, although this does take some pressure off Fleurman, who fetched 130,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Gelded before making his debut at Kempton in December 2020, where he was patently green, Fleurman beat just one rival home in novice stakes during the spring at Epsom and Windsor. Nevertheless, stepped up to a mile and four on good to soft ground, Fleurman showed marked improvement in a Salisbury handicap off a mark of 64. Racing in third, some way behind the front two, Fleurman found himself outpaced as the pack engulfed the tearaways half a mile from home. Nevertheless, he stayed on well to lead inside the final furlong to win by a length, and two and a quarter. He was next seen a month later in a handicap over the St. Leger distance at Doncaster. He once again found himself outpaced on the turn for home, but made a strong looking challenge at the distance and while ultimately coming off second best in a messy battle, he lost little esteem in defeat with the pair nearly five lengths clear of the third. A return to Salisbury in July saw a return to winning ways in another fourteen furlong handicap, this time off 73. Tracking the leader from an easy gallop, Fleurman eased to the front three furlongs for home and was not for catching as he ran on powerfully for an emphatic eleven length success. Margins of such nature would generally be viewed with scepticism, although the runner-up has maintained his form and the third was a winner next time out. Fleurman was unable to sustain his progress on his final outing; a class 2 handicap at York off 85. Notwithstanding, he was far from disgraced in his fifth placed finish having found himself outpaced before plugging on in the closing stages. After Tattersalls, he joined an Olly Murphy with a healthy winner to runner rate of 28.57%, and given the general quality of his flat recruits, a respectable 52.38% improvement rate. Fleurman’s mark of 85 is the highest brought from the flat by a Warren Chase juvenile hurdler, and there is further encouragement in the pedigree. The late Mastercraftsman is one of the most prolific sires of winning juveniles, counting twenty three since his first crop in 2014/15 including Mister Blueyes and Wolf Of Windlesham. Montjeu is a leading sire and grandsire and while he is not quite at the same level as a damsire, his broodmares still have a solid winner to runner rate of 20.90%. Though a nephew of Cheveley Park Stakes winner Millisle, there is still jumps ability on the damline. Uncle Love Marmalade placed over hurdles as a juvenile, the third dam produced three winning jumpers in Ravenswood, Soubriquet and Kris Green, while the fourth dam produced champion national hunt sire Old Vic. With a rating in the 95th percentile, assured stamina, good attitude, useful pedigree and a very capable trainer, Fleurman has plenty going for him in his profile and while he may not be one for any real speed tests, would still be a most compelling recruit to the sphere.

Gaelic Warrior bg Willie Mullins j3-0-2 (63,0/138.6) 117 122
Maxios (Hernando){1-l}(0.58) 3/1 Bagan 1st 2m4½f Handicap Chase (128), Warwick 2008
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/gaelic-warrior
Willie Mullins’ first import with jumps experience, made his debut in the colts and geldings edition of the Prix Wild Monarch where he finished sixth behind Paradiso and the exciting Paul Nicholls recruit Matterhorn. Held up in the rear, Gaelic Warrior made some headway along the back but never had the pace to land a blow, finishing seventeen lengths behind the winner. Apart from missing the last, he put in a clean round of jumping though one possibly more befitting a future chaser than a quick hurdler. Three weeks later, Gaelic Warrior returned to Auteuil for a conditions race where, ridden more prominently, he put up another decent round of hurdling with his only errors coming when getting close to the fourth and taking off too early at the last. Neither of these errors had any real impact on his performance in finishing a length behind the winner in third. After another three weeks, Gaelic Warrior returned to Auteuil for a similar conditions event where his performance was in keeping with his previous efforts. Jumping cleanly for the most part and making headway through the race without threatening a win, this time finishing just over six lengths behind in third. Gaelic Warrior has produced comparable form on each outing, probably warranting a mark in the early 120s. This would be enough to win ordinary races and while further improvement under Willie Mullins is a reasonable assumption, Gaelic Warrior has been brought with chasing in mind. Maxios already has winning chasers in France and Ireland and along with Bagan appearing at 3/1 on the damline, Gaelic Warrior also has a cousin with wins in cross country events. During Auteuil’s autumn season, the form of Gaelic Warrior’s latest outing has been given several boosts. The winner, San Bruit added a Groupe III win and Groupe II third to his name. Golden Son, who finished two lengths ahead of Gaelic Warrior in June while recieving a kilo, won the €54,000 Prix Royal Junior (handicap) off top weight by five lengths before winning the Groupe II Prix Georges de Talhouet-Roy and placing second in the Groupe I Prix Cambaceres while the fourth placed Kyrov, a length and a quarter behind on level weights, went on to win the aforementioned Cambaceres by nine lengths. Whether Gaelic Warrior improved in line with his rivals since his break from action remains to be seen; but given his breeding and the way he shaped in his races, it would be well within the realms of probability.

Grivetana chf Paul Nicholls j1-1-0 (-) – 119
No Risk At All (Soldier Of Fortune){1-o}(0.33) 2/0 Grivette 1st Prix Alain du Breil (G1), Auteuil 2008
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/grivetana
Hosting a fillies’ newcomers hurdle in December is rather late in the season to be showcasing prospective juveniles and it is little surprise that of the last 308 participants from the Prix des Citronniers, only Nanabelle has journeyed across la manche. This is not to say that the 3300m contest at Cagnes-sur-Mer is a poor one. Both 2010 runner-up Tidara Angel and 2017 winner Wildriver both went on to claim Prix Alain du Breil – essentially the French Triumph Hurdle. Incidentally, the 2008 winner of the latter, Grivetana, is the granddam of the filly who took this year’s Prix des Citronniers. Grivetana, representing a Yannick Fouin yard which had won the race five times in the past decade, was sent off the 4.1 favourite of thirteen for this year’s renewal. She initially led but soon tracking leading pair who had gone clear. There was much to be desired of Grivetana’s first jumps in public as after reaching slightly at the first, she was late and very awkward at the second before giving the next two hurdles more air than necessary. However, while she was somewhat tight at the fifth, the penny appeared to drop and she hurdled quickly and fluently from there on. The leader began to falter on the approach for home and after jumping alongside at the penultimate obstacle, Grivetana was shaken up to pull half-a-dozen lengths ahead by the last. After another quick leap, her lead was doubled on the run-in as she ran out a decisive winner. The form has yet to be properly tested but the third went one better next time and the fifth and seventh have subsequently made winning returns to the venue. The winning time was the best part of three seconds faster than the male equivalent of this contest, although the fillies did benefit from a stronger tempo. Half of Yannick Fouin’s eighteen exports to the division have won as juveniles and the five that have ended up at Ditcheat include winners Ptit Zig, Pepite de Soleil and Domtaline. The first named was purchased at auction, being knocked down for €100,000 at the Arqana Autumn sale of 2012. A near decade later another transaction between Nicholls and Fouin was made, although this time it took place on the internet with a bid of €180,000 being enough to secure the deal on auctav.com. Grivette would be the highlight Grivetana’s pedigree, but certainly not the sum total. The first produce of an unraced dam to reach the track, Grivetana is the niece of Roxinela, who landed a pair of Grade 2 chases, La Molliere who won at Enghien at three, and Bassarabad who scored three times for Tim Vaughan. 2002 Prix Cambaceres hero was a produce of the third dam while Mesange Royale appears at 4/2 on the damline. No Risk At All has had three winners from eight juveniles in Britain and Ireland while his winner to runner rate in France is a very healthy 31.30%. Though not too much stock should be put in a horse after a single outing, there was plenty to like about the manner of Grivetana’s success as well as the way she learned as she jumped. With this beautifully bred filly joining a top yard with a good record with the source, Grivetana should make for an interesting recruit this term.

Icone d'Aubrelle bg Neil Mulholland j1-1-0 (-) - 113
Cokoriko (Lando){9-e}(0.54) 0.5 Griffon d’Aubrelle 1st 3600m 4yo Conditions Chase, Vittel 2020
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/icone-daubrelle
Held at Bordeaux with a prize fund of €20,000, the Prix Maurice Calve is one of the least significant newcomers’ contests on the calendar. Although Amour du Mathan, fourth in 2018, developed into a Grade Two winning chaser, and the 2014 winner Bonne Eleve landed a couple of listed hurdles, the race’s impact has otherwise been negligible. Rambranlt’jac has won only a Fairyhouse maiden for Willie Mullins while Deadline Diva achieved very little for Paul Nicholls. The latest renewal, contested over 3300m in September, was a seven runner affair taken by 15/1 shot Icone d’Aubrelle. Setting a steady tempo, he jumped left over most of his hurdles and was challenged on the approach to the penultimate flight where he completely missed his stride, barely picked up his feet and stumbled very badly on landing. This cost him the lead, but the beneficiary possessed little resolve; allowing Icone d’Aubrelle to get his head back in front at the last before winning by the best part of two lengths. The runner-up has done nothing for the form although the third went one better next time at Fontainebleau while fourth placed Hoppefull Has has emerged as a useful sort after a slow start to his career. This would be his sole outing for Augustin Adeline De Boisbrunet, whose exports have a winner to runner rate of 45.45% including Bapaume, Torpillo and Chic Name. Put up for an auctov.com flash sale, he was picked up for €150,000 whereafter the report was that he would spend six months in a meadow before joining an English trainer. That trainer would turn out to be Neil Mulholland, whose winner to runner rate in the sphere is a solid 23.08%, and his sole previous French hurdler with was a winner; the Nick Williams trained Pinkie Brown. The report and the Bordeaux performance suggested that Icone d’Aubrelle is a work in progress. Nevertheless, sire Cokoriko has a healthy 27.27% winner to runner rate, half-brother Griffon d’Aubrelle won a chase at four, his auntie is the aforementioned Bonne Eleve while the third dam is the matriarch of good young hurdlers Behrajan (3/1), Barizan (3/2), Baradari (3/2) and Ivan Grozny (3/2). Icone d’Aubrelle will probably improve with another season, but it is interesting that connections feel empowered to send him out earlier than expected and though his class is unproven, he should hold his own in fairly decent company.

Il Etait Temps chg Willie Mullins b2-0-1
Jukebox Jury (Dom Alco){u}(0.47) 2/1 Arbre de Vie 4th Spa Novices’ Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2015
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/il-etait-temps
The most prolific trainer of ex-French bumper horses in juvenile hurdles since 2004/05 is Willie Mullins, who has saddled seven winners from twelve such imports. Ut de Sivola and French Made were the most successful during their initial campaigns, while Quevega would go on to be the most noteworthy. Icare Allen, cousin of Espoir d’Allen, has already ruffled feathers with his impressive winning hurdles debut at Leopardstown over Christmas, and representing the same yard, and the same family, is Il Etait Temps. He was initially trained by Emmanuel Clayeux, whose contributions to the juvenile hurdling division over the years has been outstanding. Ten of his sixteen exports won during their first campaigns including Triumph winner Defi du Seuil, Apple’s jade, who scored at Aintree and Punchestown, as well as a couple of Fred Winter heroes in Qualando and Une Artiste. Il Etait Temps began his career at Moulins in April, doing his best work late on in finishing midfield. His second appearance came at Vichy the following month over 2400m on slow ground. Taking a keen hold while tracking the leaders, he found himself outpaced on the turn for home, but picked up well in the straight. He was not given a harsh ride in the closing stages and could have finished closer than the length and a quarter margin between himself and the winner; who went on to twice reach the frame in pattern class bumpers. This was his last appearance in France and has been given plenty of time to settle having left for Ireland in mid-June. As alluded to earlier, Il Etait Temps’ third dam is the second dam of Icare Allen, which would also make him 3/2 with Espoir d’Allen, 4/2 with Eldorado Allen, 4/3 with Envoi Allen and 5/3 with Eudipe. On the more immediate end of the distaff side, his dam won a four-year-old hurdle at Auteuil before taking a couple of chases at Pau, his half-brother won a cross-country chase, his uncles include Concerto d’Allen (a listed chase winner at four) and Arbre de Vie while the third dam produced the good French staying chaser Mikador. Four of sire Jukebox Jury’s ten British and Irish juvenile hurdlers, headed by Farclas, have been winners, while Dom Alco’s broodmares are three winners from five in the division. Although Il Etait Temps joins the division without a win to his name, he has had the Summer and Autumn to grow into himself and the Vichy performance would be enough to win most ordinary races. Furthermore, an entry in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival could be indicative of the regard in which he is held by his leading trainer. Despite his AQPS origins, Il Etait Temps has more than enough precocity in his pedigree to suggest he can do well as a juvenile during the second half of the season and while, strictly at face value, his form is somewhat lacking, his profile contains considerable potential.

La Renommee bf Richard Newland f1-0-0 j2-1-1 (-) 116 115
Doctor Dino (Ballingarry){3-d}(0.71) 1/0 Grande Cavale 1st 3400m 4yo Fillies Maiden Chase, Ecommoy 2011
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/la-renommee
Dr Richard Newland is a trainer whose record with juvenile hurdlers is a solid one. Since his first foray into the sphere in the 2009/10 season, his winner to runner rate stands at 40.91%, and he has yet to saddle a faller or unseat from eighty-two runs. The bulk of his recruits were bought at sales having raced on the flat in Britain or Ireland. However, three of his juveniles brought jumps experience from France with Katpoli winning during his first campaign, and Rose Sea Has and Rikoboy going on to land chases having previously ran over the larger obstacles in the country of their birth. Le Renommee, who privately changed hands for €120,000 during the Arqana Autumn sale, has yet to tackle fences in public but very much has the profile of a chaser. Initially with Ettienne Leenders, the source of winning juveniles Dandy Mag and Ronde de Nuit, La Renommee first saw the racecourse in a 2900m fillies’ maiden at Clairefontaine where she finished fifth of ten. Her hurdling debut came the following month at Les Sables-d’Olonne in a 3450m conditions hurdle held under floodlights. Making all, she raced quite keenly and jumped big and to her right in the early stages. With a gap between her rivals, she started getting in tight to her hurdles but was mostly fluent. The field closed on her turning for home, but La Renommee though she edged right under pressure, was always doing enough and passed the post two and a half lengths clear of the rest. There were only four finishers and the runner-up was moderate next time, although the third did score next time from a subsequent winner of a quite valuable contest. La Renommee’s second hurdles outing came in the Prix Pre Catelan at Auteuil. The 3500m contest is a conditions race for fillies with two or less hurdles runs to their names and its history is fairly ordinary. None of the four exports from the race would win as juveniles although Utopie des Bordes (2nd 2011) and Benie des Dieux (4th 2014) would eventually be useful sorts long term. Ahead of only one in the market, starting at 13/1, La Renommee was keen once again while held up in the rear, but was much neater in her jumping. Though the pace was steady, she found herself rather detached on the turn for home. Though she made considerable ground to eventually finish second by a short neck, her case was helped when the favourite fell at the last, and the new leader did everything in her power to throw the race away in a slow motion finish. Flattered to finish so close to the winner, she is better measured against the third, a neck behind, who had previously won an ordinary Toulouse contest, and was well beaten when next seen at Auteuil. The form is ordinary and the sectionals were slower across the board when compared to the colts and geldings division of the contest. Le Renommee is capable of being competitive in ordinary company during the coming months, but she can be viewed more favourably as a chasing prospect. Doctor Dino does have a strong record with juvenile hurdlers, but is capable of getting good chasers such as Le Bague au Roi; who also happens to be La Renommee’s cousin. Dam Grande Cavale won a four-year-old chase, uncle Walt was a decent staying chaser, auntie Midnight Theatre a winning pointer, while Clan Royal (3/1), Monty’s Pass (5/5) and Harbour Pilot (5/5) also appear on the damline. There are some relatives who came to hand earlier in Plaisir du Roy (2/1), Reine Angevine (2/2) and Roboratif (3/1), although on balance and racecourse evidence, Le Renommee is probably one for the longer term.

Petit Tonnerre bg Jonjo O’Neill f1-0-0 j2-2-0 (135) 121 132
Waldpark (Le Triton){16-b}(1.22) 2/1 Pibrac 1st Prix des Drags (G2), Auteuil 2013
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/petit-tonnerre
Jonjo O’Neill’s record in the juvenile hurdling division is a perfectly respectable one with a 24.72% winner to runner rate since 2004/05. However, he does want for big race success overall and none of his eight French imports with jumps experience would win during their first campaigns. The Saint James, Box Office and Pillard were able to record RPRs exceeding 120, with the former probably the most successful of all Jackdaws juveniles with his third in the Fred Winter. The Saint James was owned by JP McManus and those colours are set to be carried by the latest such import in Petit Tonnerre. He was initially under the tutelage of Jean-Philippe Dubois, whose exports count three winners from six, including Triumph hopeful In This Would, while Saint Sam and Message Personnel are amongst the remainder. Petit Tonnerre first saw the racecourse when finishing midfield in an ordinary flat maiden at Les Sables-d’Olonne in July. A month later, he made his hurdling debut in a fair conditions hurdle at Dieppe over 3400m on dead ground where he was sent off the 30/1 outsider of nine. Tracking the leaders in touch and travelling comfortably, he made his challenge after the penultimate flight and after landing over the last in the lead, needed only hands and heels persuasion to win by a comfortable length-and-a-half and ten lengths. Apart from being big over the second and the fourth, there was no complaint to be made about his mostly neat and economical round of hurdling. The winning time was respectable and the form, while not top rank, also has a solid look with the runner-up scoring at Nantes and the third going one better in a decent event at Compiegne. Petit Tonnerre’s next appearance came the following month in Compiegne’s Prix Nuage; a conditions hurdle which has been won by useful sorts such as Prince Oui Oui and Indietir, while Houblon des Obeaux, Bouvreuil and Gardefort will be graduates more familiar with British and Irish racegoers. Sent off the 3.6 joint favourite on très souple ground, Petit Tonnerre was held up in rear and still had most of the field ahead of him entering the straight. Nevertheless, he cruised to the front on the approach to the last without coming off the bridle though his rider lost his whip on the run-in, he was able to extend his lead to three lengths in a matter of strides. The winning time was ordinary and the beaten horses finished in a heap but the form has been given several boosts. The second and third filled the first two places in a valuable handicap next time, the third won his first two outings over fences and the fourth would go one better in the Prix Cambaceres. Sire Waldpark’s sole juvenile to race in Britain was three time winner Herbiers, although Petit Tonnerre is his sire’s only winning three-year-old jumper from eleven. Half-brother Piriac won a hurdle at four as did cousin Pierre Qui Roule, while the granddam’s half-sister Pampa Pearl was a good juvenile hurdler. The most accomplished relatives on the damline are Pibrac (2/1) and Normand Pearl (4/1). Each got better with age with the former winning the Prix des Drags at nine, and the latter finishing second in the Grand Prix d’Automne at six, and winning the Prix Carmarthen at eight. Petit Tonnerre has already shown enough to be competitive in very good company as a juvenile, although he is bred to be better in time and it is interesting that his first British entries have been for handicap hurdles.

Pleasant Man bg Paul Nicholls f9-3-1 (95) 101
Galileo (Redoute’s Choice){1-n}(0.60) No jumps relatives
Paul Nicholls has a strong record of getting imports with hurdling form to maintain and improve during their juvenile campaigns, but he is also well adept at turning good flat horses into good young hurdlers. Celestial Halo, Hebridean and Dodging Bullets brought ninety-plus ratings to Ditcheat and another who did so recently is Pleasant Man. Making a winning racecourse debut at Haydock, Pleasant Man was allowed to take his chance in the Royal Lodge and while he would finish last of five, was far from disgraced having been held up off a steady tempo and racing green in the process. Third in a Windsor novice on his reappearance, he beat just one home in the Chester Vase and was gelded shortly afterwards. He returned sans testicles at Salisbury in June to make his handcap debut in a twelve furlong contest off 92. Held up in the rear, he travelled comfortably into contention at the distance and though he did not quicken immediately, he did keep on well, passing the line a neck and two-and-a-half lengths to the good. He ran respectably next time at Ascot when unsuited by the way the race unfolded before recording a one-paced midfield finish in a handicap at Glorious Goodwood. His penultimate flat outing came in the Melrose Handicap where he was given too much to do before making headway to finish a never-nearer seventh of twenty-two. He then capped his first spell on the flat with a return to winning ways in a fourteen furlong Yarmouth handicap in mid-September. Racing on a mark of 93, Pleasant Man still only had one behind on the turn into the straight and needed to be driven to keep tabs as the pack accelerated off a slow pace. Nevertheless, he was able to plug on gamely and get to the front in the dying strides to win by a head. He then went to the Tattersalls Autumn Sale where he compelled Tom Malone to make the winning bid of 175,000 guineas. Juvenile hurdlers formerly trained by Roger Charlton have a fair winner to runner rate of 18.33% while Galileo’s progeny have a decent rate of 25.69% in the sphere. Much the best of the latter’s juveniles was Celestial Halo who was, to date, the only one handled by Paul Nicholls. In a similar vein, the best former resident of Beckhampton Stables to go juvenile hurdling was One Guard who, prior to this season, was also the only one to join Paul Nicholls. With the dam being of Australian extraction, there is a dearth of jumpers on the distaff side. Call It A Day appears at 4/4 on the damline, but he’s an Australian sprinting namesake of the old Whitbread winner; although the ninth dam does count Cima, Halkopous and One For Arthur amongst her distant descendants. A lack of jumps relatives on the damline is not necessarily a negative. Indeed, last year’s dual winner Persia, another son of Galileo, had a similar trait on account of an American maternal line. Overall, Pleasant Man has comfortably more positives than negatives in his profile and his class, attitude and definite stamina should see him make an impact on the division.

Rubaud bg Paul Nicholls f8-1-0 (44,5-97.9) 97
Air Chief Marshal (Cardoun){10-e}(3.00) 1/1 Francin 1st 2m6½f Novice Hurdle, Navan 2020
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/rubaud
Since 2004/05, Paul Nicholls has taken charge of thirty-six juvenile hurdlers who ran on the flat in France with twenty-two winning during their initial campaigns. Both of these figures are the highest of any British or Irish trainer, and the winner to runner rate of 61.11% is bettered only by Nicky Henderson and Lucy Wadham for those with five or more such horses. Zarkandar, All Yours and Pierrot Lunaire are the highest earners in this class of Paul Nicholls juveniles and another such interesting recruit could be Rubaud. Formerly with Philippe Decouz, whose two exports to date are promising French Aseel and Vauban, Rubaud made a fairly low key start to his career. His two year-old campaign consisted of a pair of midfield finishes at Lyon Parilly and Angers before a spring return saw him register a couple of fourth place finishes in reasonable company back at the former course. Stepping up to 3000m, some 600m further than he had hitherto competed, Rubaud got off the mark at the sixth attempt in a Saint-Cloud maiden on good to soft ground in July. Racing keenly while held up in touch, Rubaud was asked for his effort at the distance and having hit the front with a furlong to go, was ridden out before being eased very close home to win by three quarters of a length. The form is respectably enough with the runner-up being a dual subsequent winner rated in the high seventies, and fourth placed One More Light winning on the flat before landing a valuable newcomers hurdle at Auteuil. Rubaud was next seen stepping up in grade for a Groupe III contest at Longchamp two months later where, having been help up in rear, had every chance as the race unfolded but found himself comfortably outpaced. Nevertheless, he was not disgraced in finishing less than five lengths behind the winner and the runner-up franked the form when finishing a close third in a Groupe II on Arc weekend. Though dropped down to listed company on his final French outing, it was still a competitive enough race for Rubaud to be sent off at 11/1. While the trip was 200m shorter, and Rubaud was held up for much of the contest, he struggled on the softer ground, weakening in the closing stages to finish a ten length seventh. His valeur of 44.5 is only justifiable on his Longchamp effort, but it still exceeds the one set by full-his brother Francin who won a couple of novice hurdles for Willie Mullins in 2020. Rubaud is also a nephew of winning hurdlers Hot Chili Peper and Favourite Son. Sire Air Chief Marshall has a strong 36.67% winner to runner rate with French three-year-old jumpers as well as being two from four in Britain with stablemate Viroflay being one of those winners last term. Overall, while he may be a little flattered by his high flat rating, there is still plenty to like about Rubaud’s profile given he has joined a strong yard, is bred for the game and comes with assured stamina.

The Famous Five bc Venetia Williams f6-2-2 (41.5/91.3) 92
Camelot (Red Ransom){9}(0.83) 2/1 Planetoid 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (113), Plumpton 2016
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/the-famous-five
The record of Venetia Williams in the division is a laudable one and her record with French flat recruits is also respectably with three of twelve such horses winning as juveniles. More expensive than those coming before him is The Famous Five who sold for €250,000 on iwantthewinner.com. Formerly with Henri-Alex Pantall, whose exports are without a winner from eleven (although Icario and Zalvados were at least above-average), The Famous Five was third at Angers on his debut last November before getting off the mark on his return in a 2200 metre Fontainbleau maiden in the middle of March. He found a step up in class beyond him at Longchamp next time, but still ran with credit as he also did on his next outings at Compiegne and Toulouse. The Famous Five would double his tally in a mid-August conditions event over 2,000 metres at Vichy. Racing keenly while tucked in behind the leader, he made his move at the distance and while the runner-up was drifting into him all the way to the line, he was always holding his rival and the pair pulled three and a half lengths clear of the remainder. The form would not breach listed class but he still had four last-time-out winners behind him that day. Camelot has a solid 25% winner to runner rate and while his uncle Planetoid won a handicap hurdle, his dam is a half-sister to two sires of jumps winners in Pushkin and Policy Maker (Chacun Pour Soi, Art Mauresque, Roll On Has, L’Espiguette) as well as being an auntie of another in Planteur. Pythagore (3/3), Zapato (3/4) and Special Envoy (4/4) are relatives with good jumps form in their own names. With good flat form, feasible stamina and an interesting pedigree, The Famous Five has the attributes to be a useful recruit; even if he will need to improve further to justify his purchase price.

Vadaly bf Willie Mullins j1-1-0 (-) 0 121
Vadamos (Poliglote){28}(0.54) 1/0 Formerly 3rd Prix de Chambly (L,3yoH), Auteuil 2009
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/vadaly
Willie Mullins already has one recruit covered in the first edition in Gaelic Warrior. However, while the aforementioned looks more a long term prospect, Vadaly could be the more precocious of the pair. Making her sole start in a maiden contest at Dieppe in mid-August, Vadaly was sent off the 10/1 fourth favourite of eleven under James Reveley. Initially held up in the rear, she was keen off the slow early pace and pulled herself into midfield. Moving to track the leaders with a circuit left to race, she went into the lead half-a-mile out but did not turn the screws until forced to do so by an untidy jump at the penultimate flight. Vadaly was able to fend off her experienced pursuers and while she was steep and stumbled slightly at the last, she still had enough to pull a length and a half and three lengths clear of her rivals. Runner-up Aurore Verte is a solid benchmark for Lageneste & Macaire and subsequently finished third in the Steeple-Chase de Debut at Compiegne, while the fourth placed Cosmos Harmony would win over course and distance a fortnight later. While the time is nothing special owing to the steady tempo, it does compare favourably to the colts and geldings edition of the contest that followed on the card. The latter race was fractionally quicker from the penultimate flight but the early tempo was even slower in that contest. Furthermore, Vadaly lost momentum over the last two yet when accounting for allowances and overweight, she was carrying eight kilos more than winner Petit Tonnerre who subsequently followed up in a good conditions race at Compiegne. Though much has just been made of Vadaly’s errors during the closing stages, it should not detract from her overall ability to jump as apart from hopping slightly over the sixth and getting tight to the tenth, she put in a neat and fluent round of hurdling. Her pedigree may be partly responsible for her aptitude her dam was a pattern class juvenile in her own right and is a sibling of three other winning jumpers including New Member who was second in a Pau listed chase for four-year-olds. Sire Vadamos is having his first crop of jumpers but his attributes are conducive to success in the sphere and he is already off the mark in Ireland and France. Poliglote’s record as a damsire is also strong with his broodmare’s progeny enjoying a 35.71% winner runner rate. Daniela Mele has sent two juveniles across la manche, including the useful Stratagem, and Willie Mullins’ is peerless among Irish trainers in the sphere. Though it would be folly to put too much stock in a horse whose solitary outing resulted in a merely promising performance, Vadaly comes with a tremendous amount of potential and with Foxy Girl reportedly taking the season off, Vadaly could be a contender for leading juvenile filly this term.

The remainder are;- Ages of Man, Coolcullen, Evergreen And Red, Glen Again, Innatendue, Invictus Smart, Milldam, Oxygen, Teddy Blue and Weddell Sea.

Will try to do something on this lot at some point but have a busy few days ahead so no promises. Completely throwaway, non-committal, brief opinion on those seen to date. Fil Dor should be at or near the top of the market but he isn't a good thing and I would rather be on Vauban at this stage (as a jockey because I am not a punter or tipster). Icare Allen a few pounds behind but could be anything. The Irish are not leagues ahead of the home contingent. Porticello has the strongest individual piece of form at Chepstow, but Knight Salute had his measure at Doncaster, has course form, is versatile regarding conditions and has shedloads of resolve. Iceo and Doctor Parnassus could be dangerous but the races they won have more holes than Grasshopper's harem (in his pomp, of course); thus it would be good to see them again to get a better idea of their ability.
 
Much appreciated, BH.

DO's post about there being potential value on one or two who maybe haven't even run in this fine country yet got me looking.

Your preview says she is more of a future chasing type and her hurdles form in France is nothing special, but La Renommee could make her U.K debut this Friday at Doncaster, so I will have to take the 66s for the Triumph shortly, purely for speculation purposes.

I wouldn't advise anyone to follow me in. I could be chucking money down the drain again. I am just hoping she hacks up on Friday if declared in a minute.
 
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I've been lucky enough to catch some big priced winner like Royal Epic who went there having won his only previous race and Solar Cloud who was david Nicholson first ever Cheltenham winner.

But it's changed days now and looking outside the box is not reccomended as the job horses are more likely to end up in the Martin Pipe.

Back in the day you would have a huge field of over 20 runners in the Triumph but now about a dozen will turn up.

Now of the 59 entered not many will actually run so finding a dark horse could be extremely difficult just to find one that will turn up.
 
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From Post #3:

15 of the Triumph entries have yet to race over hurdles.

What's the chance one of them wins?

The one I'm looking at is Rubaud at 40/1 for Nicholls. His French form (Group level) might be the best Flat form on offer and, while the likes of Solo disappointed, he didn't appear [in this country] until Kempton in February where he impressed and immediately jumped to the head of the betting.

The current top rated (RPRs) in the field is about 140. There was a time that would have been good enough to deserve favouritism this far out but probably not nowadays.

For me, the likes of Fil D'Or is a good stone inferior to Zanahiyr at this stage last season. There has to be a fair chance there is something better than that lurking somewhere...

Rubaud (and Pleasant Man) entered in the Adonis on Saturday.
 
I've heard Rubaud isn't much use. If Blue Teddy can settle at all he'll outrun 14/1 in the Adonis.
 
Yeah will be backing it E.W, lots of 4 places available on the day, the draggy hill of the new course will suit as well

No offence but you are not using your head. Slims idea could be better but I wouldn't have 10p on the horse and I think I hear pocket talk:)

Teddy Blue ran a good race in the Adonis and was a length behind at the last when he blundered but I have very serious doubts about saying he would have won.

Granted Paddy Brennan had gone for Knight Salute after the 2nd last and he took his time to get going but after the last he found loads and would have been very hard to pass.

You just need to look at how he has doubled the distance between him self and the the 3rd to see just how much he did find.

That is just my opinion which is irelevant the fact is you have to go back 10 years to find an Adonis winner that has won the Triumph.

Most winners have dissapreared into oblivion and placed horses have a dreadful record most of which never even made it to the Triumph.

If were were to back every juvenile who ran a race like Teddy Bear did we'd end up without a pot to **** in.

Paddy Brennan speaks highly of KS claiming he's the fastest jumper he's ever ridden to be fair that's not saying much
because his major wins have come over fences and in the Stayers and you have to go back to Shamayoun to find his best 2 mile winner.

However you don't win 5 on the trot in a short space of time unless you're a decent horse.

My problem with Teddy Blue is the race was run in a slow time and Paddy has just gone along with it.

Cheltenham is a totally different ball game the pace will be ferocious the undulation cause one pace change after another
and where KS might well be able to handle it the chances Teddy Blue will are extremely doubtful and that is why you can have 20/1
To the bookies it was just another run of the mill trial and something had to be second.

This backing him ew with 4 places is hardly appealing. The bookies will keep it tight at around 14/1 and 1/6th the odds

So have 100 ew on ahorse that can't possibly win in your mind or you wouldn't even be thinking 4 places.

He manages to get 4th and you have laid out 200 pounds and you have just backed a horse to be in the first 4 at under 6/5.

You could have 200 pounds on Honeysuckle and win only 10 pounds less which would be alot smarter.

Just my opinion g/l which ever way you go..
 
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No offence but you are not using your head. Slims idea could be better but I wouldn't have 10p on the horse and I think I hear pocket talk:)

Teddy Blue ran a good race in the Adonis and was a length behind at the last when he blundered but I have very serious doubts about saying he would have won.

Granted Paddy Brennan had gone for Knight Salute after the 2nd last and he took his time to get going but after the last he found loads and would have been very hard to pass.

You just need to look at how he has doubled the distance between him self and the the 3rd to see just how much he did find.

That is just my opinion which is irelevant the fact is you have to go back 10 years to find an Adonis winner that has won the Triumph.

Most winners have dissapreared into oblivion and placed horses have a dreadful record most of which never even made it to the Triumph.

If were were to back every juvenile who ran a race like Teddy Bear did we'd end up without a pot to **** in.

Paddy Brennan speaks highly of KS claiming he's the fastest jumper he's ever ridden to be fair that's not saying much
because his major wins have come over fences and in the Stayers and you have to go back to Shamayoun to find his best 2 mile winner.

However you don't win 5 on the trot in a short space of time unless you're a decent horse.

My problem with Teddy Blue is the race was run in a slow time and Paddy has just gone along with it.

Cheltenham is a totally different ball game the pace will be ferocious the undulation cause one pace change after another
and where KS might well be able to handle it the chances Teddy Blue will are extremely doubtful and that is why you can have 20/1
To the bookies it was just another run of the mill trial and something had to be second.

This backing him ew with 4 places is hardly appealing. The bookies will keep it tight at around 14/1 and 1/6th the odds

So have 100 ew on ahorse that can't possibly win in your mind or you wouldn't even be thinking 4 places.

He manages to get 4th and you have laid out 200 pounds and you have just backed a horse to be in the first 4 at under 6/5.

You could have 200 pounds on Honeysuckle and win only 10 pounds less which would be alot smarter.

Just my opinion g/l which ever way you go..


Good God man, go for a ******* walk and stop spewing ****.
 
Is that all you the great Geroid can come up with?

Any fukcer can throw one liners and act like a smart ass.

This is a place for debate and if you can't come up with something other than abuse without any sort of input go back to primary school and learn some manners.
 
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Is that all you the great Geroid can come up with?

Any fukcer can throw one liners and act like a smart ass.

This is a place for debate and if you can't come up with something other than abuse without any sort of input go back to primary school and learn some manners.

You've just written an essay assuming someone can't read a race or do maths as well as you can. Utter drivel.
 

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