Trump vs Harris
- Thread starter Tanlic
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
If the betting markets are right it looks over before it starts. Ladbrokes and PP just went 4/9 ..https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-state-betting/nevada https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-state-betting/wisconsin https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-state-betting/pennsylvania https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-state-betting/michigan a sporting bet could be Trump to break the 300 barrier
Ian_Davies
Apprentice
I think Donald Trump will win.
He seems to be leading now in most of the Swing States.
I also believe that, in the same way there was a "shy Tory" factor in the UK Election - the Tories ended up with 3% more than the polls had been saying and Labour with 3% less - there has always been a "shy Trump" factor in USA opinion polling.
Trump was behind to Hillary Clinton in the polls all the way to Election Day in 2016, yet still won and what I suspect many Democrat social media activists don't realise is that labelling anyone who votes for Trump "redneck pondlife" doesn't make prospective Trump voters vote Democrat instead, it just makes them feel stigmatised if they admit to privately agreeing with a lot of what Trump says, so they might tell an opinion pollster they will vote for Kamala Harris, but they actually vote for Trump.
If I'm right, it won't even be close - yes, Harris may shade the national popular vote, but it's the electoral college voters from the States that count and I can see Trump running out a comfortable winner.
1.55 at Betfair now and should be 1.25 in my view.
He seems to be leading now in most of the Swing States.
I also believe that, in the same way there was a "shy Tory" factor in the UK Election - the Tories ended up with 3% more than the polls had been saying and Labour with 3% less - there has always been a "shy Trump" factor in USA opinion polling.
Trump was behind to Hillary Clinton in the polls all the way to Election Day in 2016, yet still won and what I suspect many Democrat social media activists don't realise is that labelling anyone who votes for Trump "redneck pondlife" doesn't make prospective Trump voters vote Democrat instead, it just makes them feel stigmatised if they admit to privately agreeing with a lot of what Trump says, so they might tell an opinion pollster they will vote for Kamala Harris, but they actually vote for Trump.
If I'm right, it won't even be close - yes, Harris may shade the national popular vote, but it's the electoral college voters from the States that count and I can see Trump running out a comfortable winner.
1.55 at Betfair now and should be 1.25 in my view.
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Len Madeiros
Rookie
Biden pointing out the obvious about Trump voters is probably the final nail in the coffin for Harris.
God Save America.
God Save America.
Ian_Davies
Apprentice
You don't change people's minds by telling them they're stupid for holding their current view.
In Britain we've had years of the self-appointed intellectual elite saying anyone who wants Brexit must be a moron and it didn't stop the Leave vote winning or subsequent ratifications of that view via Euro Elections and the 2019 "Get Brexit Done" General Election.
And I say that as someone who voted Remain and would vote to Rejoin.
Regardless of what anyone thinks personally about the politics of it all, people are entitled to vote for whoever or whatever they like and all constant ridiculing of them does is drive support underground so it doesn't show up as much in opinion polls but still shows up in the actual vote.
I'll go as far to say I can't have Trump beat now - he's home and hosed.
In Britain we've had years of the self-appointed intellectual elite saying anyone who wants Brexit must be a moron and it didn't stop the Leave vote winning or subsequent ratifications of that view via Euro Elections and the 2019 "Get Brexit Done" General Election.
And I say that as someone who voted Remain and would vote to Rejoin.
Regardless of what anyone thinks personally about the politics of it all, people are entitled to vote for whoever or whatever they like and all constant ridiculing of them does is drive support underground so it doesn't show up as much in opinion polls but still shows up in the actual vote.
I'll go as far to say I can't have Trump beat now - he's home and hosed.
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