Trump vs Harris

I think Donald Trump will win.

He seems to be leading now in most of the Swing States.

I also believe that, in the same way there was a "shy Tory" factor in the UK Election - the Tories ended up with 3% more than the polls had been saying and Labour with 3% less - there has always been a "shy Trump" factor in USA opinion polling.

Trump was behind to Hillary Clinton in the polls all the way to Election Day in 2016, yet still won and what I suspect many Democrat social media activists don't realise is that labelling anyone who votes for Trump "redneck pondlife" doesn't make prospective Trump voters vote Democrat instead, it just makes them feel stigmatised if they admit to privately agreeing with a lot of what Trump says, so they might tell an opinion pollster they will vote for Kamala Harris, but they actually vote for Trump.

If I'm right, it won't even be close - yes, Harris may shade the national popular vote, but it's the electoral college voters from the States that count and I can see Trump running out a comfortable winner.

1.55 at Betfair now and should be 1.25 in my view.
 

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You don't change people's minds by telling them they're stupid for holding their current view.

In Britain we've had years of the self-appointed intellectual elite saying anyone who wants Brexit must be a moron and it didn't stop the Leave vote winning or subsequent ratifications of that view via Euro Elections and the 2019 "Get Brexit Done" General Election.

And I say that as someone who voted Remain and would vote to Rejoin.

Regardless of what anyone thinks personally about the politics of it all, people are entitled to vote for whoever or whatever they like and all constant ridiculing of them does is drive support underground so it doesn't show up as much in opinion polls but still shows up in the actual vote.

I'll go as far to say I can't have Trump beat now - he's home and hosed.
 
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Interesting, Luke.

I was watching a clip today from USA TV with a data analyst with a contrary view to me.

He said polling organisations underestimating a Party or candidate in three consecutive elections is unprecedented because they build in "shy vote" adjustments after the first and definitely the second.

Interesting view, but I thought he was

1 Having a guess

2 The UK polls have underestimated the Tory vote at virtually every election since 1992 (even when they lost it wasn't as catastrophic as the polls predicted) so why can't Trump get the hat-trick up?

3 I am ex media and, here's the thing, they have to keep it interesting so, if the narrative angle is it's close they stick to that all the way to polling day and, if a landslide is predicated, they stick to it being of historic magnitude right up to when, err, it isn't.

They can't say Trump has as good as won already as that wouldn't be great for viewing figures for all those election broadcasts they've lined up.

It's a bit like an old Extel commentary saying it's neck and neck to betting shop punters when something had gone ten clear.
 
RTE news keeps saying that it is a dead heat which it can't be with the electoral college -personally I think they won't mention the possibility of a Trump win until it is a done deal.
 
Back to 4/6 &6/4 on the machine -Harris needs to take it by the scruff of the neck to win -I don't think she has it in her.
 
When we were all watching the Breeders Cup there was a significant change in the betting and it is now 4/5 Trump 5/4Harris on betfair.
Don't be surprised if it is evens each of two on Monday.
 
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