Understanding Handicapping / Ratings

PRICEWISE2008

PRICEWISE2008

At the Start
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Jan 4, 2008
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Hi Folks..Apologies for asking these very basic questions to you fine Racing people..Am relatively new to this game..Can't grasp the concept of handicap ratings at all..Often read trainers saying" how well handicpped a horse is off his current mark" If I use a rating of 105 just for this example..How does this rating(105) equate to the weight that the horse carries in a race?? Am I complicating something fairly simple or am I coming at it from completely the wrong angle?? Am hoping that somebody first of all understands my question, and can help or even point me in the direction of a decent book on the subject of handicapping/ratings. Am keen to learn. Many thanks again, really enjoy the forum..even if some of it goes way over my head!!

Rgds,
PW2008
 
To use your example a horse rated 105 running against a horse rated say 108 would carry 3lbs less than that horse.

A horse rated 105 who is capable of running to a higher rating is theoretically well handicapped.

There is a sliding scale which translates distance into weight. (don't have a copy to hand). As a rough measure to start with though you'd be looking at

5/6f - 3lbs per length
7f/1m - 2lbs per length
1m2f/1m4f - 1.5lbs per length
1m6f+ - 1lb per length (cue Warbler :P )

So for your 105 rated horse against one rated 108, racing over 1m and winning by 3 lengths, where you believe that the 108 rated horse ran to his mark, the following would apply:

108 + (3 x 2lbs) - (108-105) = 111.

So your 105 rated well handicapped horse has now proved himself capable of running to 111, so he was indeed well handicapped.


For an example of a current horse who is arguably well handicapped, go to the Racing Post website and look up Babodana. Currently rated 98, his highest winning handicap rating is 107.
 
Originally posted by PRICEWISE2008@Apr 7 2008, 11:19 AM
How does this rating(105) equate to the weight that the horse carries in a race??
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That will depend on the race.

The horse would be permitted to be entered for a 0-100 race but would be allocated 5lbs more than the usual top weight, ie 9-12 instead of 9-7 or 10-5 instead 10-0 (Flat racing).

If it were in a 0-110, it would receive 5lbs from something rated 110.
 
Originally posted by simmo@Apr 7 2008, 03:17 PM


5/6f - 3lbs per length
7f/1m - 2lbs per length
1m2f/1m4f - 1.5lbs per length
1m6f+ - 1lb per length (cue Warbler :P )
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on cue;

How much additional weight it takes to slow a horse by 1 length at different distances

5F = 3.9Ibs
6F = 3.2Ibs
7F = 2.7Ibs
8F = 2.4Ibs
9F = 2.1Ibs
10F = 1.8Ibs
12F = 1.5Ibs
14F = 1.3Ibs
16F = 1.1Ibs
18F = 1.0Ib
20F = 0.9Ibs
22F = 0.8Ibs
24F = 0.7Ibs
28F = 0.6Ibs
4miles + = 0.5Ibs

If you plot them on a graph you'll get a near perfect concave curve. I was hoping to attribute the table to the originator but having spun through a few books it isn't clear whether it Ragozin, Alexander, Beyer or Mordin, all of whom have conducted various degrees of research on the same theme and broadly come to similar conclusions.

The higher the class of horse the more they are likely to be able to lump a bit above these averages. The issue about how much a horse speeds up for a weight reduction is much less clearer, and I've never really satisfied myself on this one. What i will accept (and working in Oxford I periodically get the chance to bump into clever scientists who understand these things, even if they can't explain them to idiots). Is that horses for reasons of cubic capacity and hysterisis don't speed up in the same ratios, and broadly speaking more weight has to come off to achieve the same 1 length result. There is a threshold however, where weight clearly doesn't matter as the curve is not exponential and has a cut off point over which the performance threshold of the horse can't go.

Or hypothetical example;

Denman is required to carry 12st and can run at 35 mph over 3 miles with this burden. His weight is reduced to 3st, but he wouldn't be able to run at 140mph. In this case the laws of physics don't apply, as force equals mass times acceleration has just ensured that Sam Thomas has been given 12pts on his licence and has been disqualified from riding. Heaven knows how he'd get round the top turn, poor old Denman would be half way up the M5 (and Kauto Star would still be making jumping errors whilst his fan club claimed he were superior)
 
To the best of my knowledge, the official handicapper uses the formula:

15 / (distance in furlongs)

to calculate how many pounds equal one length

i.e., over a mile, 1 length = 15/8 = 1.875 lbs.

Different handicappers use different formulas, though. The Racing Post, Timeform and Desert Orchid all have their own tried and trusted methods :)
 
It's the beauty of the game Gareth, we all know best.

Incidentally, how does an Irishman end up with a welsh name
 
5F = 3.9Ibs
6F = 3.2Ibs
7F = 2.7Ibs
8F = 2.4Ibs
9F = 2.1Ibs
10F = 1.8Ibs
12F = 1.5Ibs
14F = 1.3Ibs
16F = 1.1Ibs
18F = 1.0Ib
20F = 0.9Ibs
22F = 0.8Ibs
24F = 0.7Ibs
28F = 0.6Ibs
4miles + = 0.5Ibs
Click to expand...


At the risk of giving you indigestion, the above scale should be assumed to apply to average horses in normal conditions. Age, going and quality of animal (already mentioned by Warbler) also come into it. Weight might have a bigger impact on two year olds, for example, running in heavy ground than on strapping older sprinters on fast ground.
 
Depends how you interpret the question, bar.

The handicapper works on his own allowances therefore, officially, there won't be discrepancies. However, if I, for example, allow 4lbs per furong over 5f and someone else only allows 3lbs, then our performance ratings and advanced ratings for future races will differ, possibly substantially.

I used to experiment with individual allowances for every single distance on every single track but had to give up as it was too time consuming. If I could come up with a computer programme that did it all for me I'd go back to it. After all, it strikes me that there should be a different allowance for 5f at Epsom and 5f at Ponteferact.
 
Well many sprint races of course have the additional influence of draw bias to factor in too, but I'm sure Dessies right as regards track topography. Lumping 4Ibs downhill at Epsom shouldn't be anything like the ask, that carrying the additional weight uphill at Pontefract would require
 
I used to experiment with individual allowances for every single distance on every single track but had to give up as it was too time consuming. If I could come up with a computer programme that did it all for me I'd go back to it.
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How would you work out the allowances? Base it on on average beaten distances?
 
One of the advantages of working in the country's foremost seat of learning is that I have access to extremely brainy people. Suffice to say, I've collared a physicist from Hertford College on the issue about downhill races and the effect of weight. My hypothesis was that 2 horses are of similar ability, horse A is required to carry 10st and horse B 12st. They run on a downhill track, does the horse with the more weight win?

Answer to follow.........
 
My hypothesis was that 2 horses are of similar ability, horse A is required to carry 10st and horse B 12st. They run on a downhill track, does the horse with the more weight win?
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My guess is that if you put them on skis horse B would be in the lead at the bottom of the ramp but horse A would stay in the air longer and achieve the longer jump.
 
Originally posted by Grey@Apr 10 2008, 07:45 PM
My hypothesis was that 2 horses are of similar ability, horse A is required to carry 10st and horse B 12st. They run on a downhill track, does the horse with the more weight win?
Click to expand...

My guess is that if you put them on skis horse B would be in the lead at the bottom of the ramp but horse A would stay in the air longer and achieve the longer jump.
Click to expand...
Actually they'd reach the bottom of the ramp at the same time. Mass has no effect on speed where gravity is the driving force. For example if you dropped two balls of the same shape out of a window with one weighing 10st and the other 100st, they'd hit the ground at the same time.

In the horse racinging scenario I'd expect the 10st horse to win the downhill race.
 
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