US Presidential election 2016

Interesting twist on a Boston Globe poll tonight. The headline is being a little mischievous in suggesting that the lead that Trump has over Rubio is narrowing (even though it is) but this is why, and it is perhaps starting to answer a crucial question.

Ted Cruz has had a bad 48 hours. It's starting to look at as if his campaign team sensed they had an opportunity in Iowa that presented them with plausible denial over these Carson had pulled out claims. It was reported on CNN by one of their anchors resulting from the second of three tweets that one of their reporters put out saying that Carson had gone home to Florida and wouldn't be going straight to New Hampshire to campaign. The third tweet said he was staying in the race, but CNN didn't report this (something which the custodians of high quality journalism - Fox News, are leaping all over). In any event, only Cruz's team seemingly latched onto this and SMS'd their 1500 precinct captains to tell the caucus that Carson had withdrawn and pressure his identifiable supporters to switch into Cruz. As Karl Grove has pointed out, with 1500 caucus's, it only required 4 voters to switch in each from Carson and Cruz for Trump to lose

Carson is the directly injured party and has condemned not just Cruz, but also the culture that surrounds him and his campaign team. Trump has called for a re-run. Cruz has apologised to Carson (sort of) and his campaign manager has tried to spin it by stating that they reacted to information that simply wasn't broadcast (they have tapes of these things for crying out loud!) and then tried to convince everyone it was all one very unfortunate mistake which we deeply regret. In a campaign that has had a lot of cynicism though, the voters simply don't believe this sort of thing

Now of all the GOP candidates Cruz is probably the most dangerous and unpleasent of the lot (more so than the Donald).

I've always been interested to know who votes for him? (Trump is easier to reconcile). In Iowa it was the conservative Godists, but Cruz also holds some pretty base right wing views that would make him comparable with Trump. So the question I've always wanted to know the answer to is who would Cruz voters turn to if they lost faith in their candidate, or if he withdrew?

Well if his vote is shored up by quasi fascists then the answer is probably Trump. If it's religious extremists though, then who knows?

Well might have our answer now. The Boston Globes Poll has been conducted since all this broke. Trumps vote is still holding at around 30%, but Cruz's has collapsed from 14% to 7%. The beneficiary has been Rubio, up to 19%, hence the headline. It would seem to indicate that Cruz voters will switch to Rubio, a man who explains terrorist attacks thus

"What we may interpret as bad, and most certainly is in the case of Paris or 9/11, even that is part of a broader plan for the universe and for our lives that we are just not going to know the answer to. God's ways are not our ways."

It seems to indicate that perhaps Trump has hoovered most of the nasty philosophical right wing potential, and Cruz is flushed with lunatic Godists, who are now transfering to Rubio
 
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So has last nights debate changed a few things?

First time they piled into Rubio, and boy did he wobble. Chris Christie filleted him. Rubio reminded me of Ed Miliband. This won't be easily forgotten, and has at least 10 days shelf life, probably more. The only way Rubio can lay this ghost is to put in a stunning counter performance. He might conceivably have cost himself South Carolina, and with the momentum he was generating, a good finish in New Hampshire too. It's not so much what Hillary Clinton might do to him in a one on one, but Vladmir Putin is going devour him. He looked what it is. A little boy lost. A Senator who has never really assumed responsbility for anything flannelling around in a world of pre-written answers and memorised sound bites. He looked out of his depth, and when you throw in some extremely flakey religious views, he struck me as being yet another dangerous and deluded Republican off the production line

Rubio was the big loser, and from what i can gather Cruz was the winner. Cruz came into this under a cloud, and did what he had to do. Say sorry face to face to Ben Carson. Apologies without consequences always leave me a bit flat though. So what if he's sorry. Is he sorry for what happened, or sorry that he got found out? Of all the candidates in this contest, Cruz remains the most frightening, but he might be in play for South Carolina now

Trump got booed for trying to flush John Ellis down the toilet again, but all we learn is that Trump's a bullying, patronising, bombast. Had any other candidate behaved like this, it might have been the talk of the night, but this is Trump, this is what we expect. From what i can gather too, John Ellis Bush was actually constantly interupting and over talking Trump, his 'shush be quiet' wasn't completely without justification

Kasich and Carson might has well have not been there by all accounts

It's been a bad few days for Cruz and Rubio then. One gets done for dirty tricks, and the other is exposed for being lightweight
 
Been speculating for a few weeks now that John Ellis Bush (aka JEB) might become value yet. His top price for the nomination is now 18/1, (was 10)

This might be close to as high as he goes without incurring fatal damage. He could become a trading proposition now. Am I mad? probably, but this is why

Cruz hasn't invested too much in New Hampshire. The state doesn't play to his evangelicalism, and he still has to recover some of the damage done to his 'reputation' around the dirty tricks of Iowa.

Rubio has cut his own throat for the time being. The American networks have been full of mash ups of his Ed Miliband impression with a supporting narrative that he lacks depth. The tracking polls had picked up a dip in support, and the immedaite post debate polls were damaging albeit not included in any tracking. We'll only see the first post debate polls appearing today. If these are as bad as the noise suggests, his support has to gravitate somewhere. There are three options. Bush, Kasich, and Christie

The normal pattern is for the establishment candidate to get a bounce in the 36 hours before polling. With his money and the machine behind him, that looks like it could be Bush now rather than Rubio. Bush's own performances (despite pleading with the crowds to clap him) haven't been quite so bad in the last 2 weeks. It's a stretch to saying he's finding his range with Trump now having had to recalibrate a bit, but he seems to be handling him a shade better than he was doing. There also has to be a chance that after New Hampshire one of Christie or Kasich withdraws ahead of South Carolina. At this stage you'd probably say that's Christie. It seems difficult to imagine that Christie could endorse Rubio after clattering him in the debate, so one assumes Jeb picks up an endorsement from this direction too, perhaps signalling a shifting of the sands on the establishment ticket?

I'd be surprised ('d be shocked actually) if Bush can get himself right back into the front runners spot that he occupied before Trump barged onto the scene, but lets no lose sight of the fact that if Trump hadn't thrown the spanner in the works, he'd probably be favourite now in what would look like an underwhelming field of usual suspects, with Cruz fulfilling the role of unelectable nutcase.

Rubio is going to need to prove to the establishment that he has the depth. If he can't, Bush could easily begin to inherit Rubio's numbers plus his own

Jeb might sneak second yet in New Hampshire in which case 18/1 for someone who can stay in the race might look like value for trading purposes
 
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icebreaker said:
Now the dust has settled, I believe the foxy play for trading purposes would be a Lay Rubio in the Republican nominee market at 1.88. That's just too low; an over-exuberant reaction to Rubio's (admittedly good) showing in Iowa.
Not trying to ramp the price or anything, but I've climbed aboard at 1.8 with get-out target of 2.25
Click to expand...
Have just bailed at the current 2.44. Maybe the price will drift a bit further, and maybe I'm being a bit over-cautious, but, a 45% profit on the trade as it stands will do for now.
 
Something to consider which kind of reared its head in the debate is the naturally cautious view the American public have of Senators and their reluctance to give them the White House

Obama is very much an exception, but he's a Democrat

To find the last Republican to win the White House who was Senator you need to go back to Richard Nixon, but strictly speaking he was Eisenhower's Vice Presdient between 1952 and 1960, and used that office as has his platform to launch a bid for the Presidency against Kennedy in 1960, only succeeding of course in 1968, well over a decade after he left the Senate.

Kenndey was a one term Senator, but again, he was a Democrat. You might point out that LBJ was a Senator too, but he inheritted the Oval Office from the position of Vice President, and used that office to win the White House outright in 1964

It kind of set me wondering who the last Republican was to win the White House based exclusively on a career in the Senate? I reckon its Warren Harding? (often regarded as being amongst the very worst Presidents in history)

I'm tempted to ask who the last Republican Senator was to win the nomination based on their Senate career as Rubio is trying to do? George W Bush was Governor for Texas, McCain was Arizona, and Romney Massacheusetts. Must be Bob Dole? and he was a lifer compared to Rubio attempting this on just one term
 
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Sounds like Bloomberg could well be 'padding up' tonight

There's definitely some money to be made here if he steps out, but how?

Consensus opinion is that he'll draw more from Hillary Clinton, despite he himself having been a Republican Mayor of New York

Does his participation open a route for Jeb Bush at 25/1? Don't know.

If we say that his participation stands a decent chance of turning those critical Obama states red, and that the GOP will eventually elect an establishment figure, then that looks like being Rubio or Bush. Their respective 7/2 and 25/1 looks wrong to me. Rubio is going to have show some substance to win this, and for now at least Chris Christie has shown where the Achiles is. Picking apart a fresh face one term Senator, a profile which the GOP don't exactly have form for nominating, is hardly unforeseeable. What if Trump joins the assault on the Senator?

All of this is predicated on a Bloomberg entry mind you
 
Do I understand rightly from the above that you have Clinton a done deal for the Democratic nomination? She's clearly the favourite to do so, but I'm not sure if it's a certainty.

25/1 about Bush looks about right; he's so far behind presently that he needs a turnaround of seismic proportions to be a viable contender.
 
Put in a request for 3.50 about Rubio in the w/o Trump market for tonight's primary. And it was taken.
Have I made a blunder? Probably. I reckoned that he and Kasich were neck-and-neck but that Rubio presented the better value given their respective prices. I probably mis-read the runes and miscalculated.
 
icebreaker said:
Put in a request for 3.50 about Rubio in the w/o Trump market for tonight's primary. And it was taken.
Have I made a blunder?
Click to expand...

Probably

Rubio cocked up again last night in some stump speach. He's all of sudden starting to look like a little boy out of his depth, and the American public are latching onto it if the grapevine can be believed.

This evening we'll see the first true post debate polls with sampling conducted during the period, and then we might get a clearer idea. Rubio can recover the situation of course, but the pressure is now on him to demonstrate his mettle rather than soft soaping his way round. I doubt he's got time to recover for New Hampshire, but his floundering has taken some of the sting out of the Cruz dirty tricks story and, ensured the Donald has been subjected to the level scrutiny that he might have been.

If the establishment row back from Rubio, then where to next for them? Christie will likely drop out after NH. Kasich already seems to have one eye on the VP. He's embedded himself in NH for months now and has little base outside of the Granite state. You can easily see him fading out the picture after SC and NV

It's why I think Bush is over the odds at 25/1, albeit he needs a Bloomberg run I reckon. Bush can stay in the campaign, and hasn't really done a great deal wrong other than allow Trump to beat up on him

Another half interesting dynamic emerging is Ben Carson seemingly falling out with Cruz. Speculation mounting now that when he pulls out he won't endorse Cruz and could well use it as an opportunity to question Cruz's integrity from a christian perspective. Carson might be useless at politics, and not a little bit sinister in the way he's used his SuperPAC, but he has remained dignified throughout the whole thing (can't be said for many of them). A Trump running mate?

Trump won't go with an establishment figure you feel (I'm sure he'd be interested in the maths that Kasich brings, but whether they could work together who knows?). Outside of this you feel he could easily go left field. Hell I wouldn't be shocked to see him pick Phil Mickelson!!!! More seriously the military or the world of business might be where he sources from. Trump will probably back himself to negotiate the Washington morass, but Carson ticks three boxes that Trump most definitely doesn't

1: ethnic minority
2: evangelical
3: dignified
 
It looks like I badly underestimated the impact of Rubio's poor performance in the tv debate. With the first vote counts coming in it looks like Kasich will fill the runner-up spot with possibly Bush coming third. A impressive result for Trump -- he certainly has managed to convert his suspect support into hard votes.
On reflection, Rubio truly is nothing more than an empty suit; a robot repeating over and over the soundbytes authored by scriptwriters. Marco Robotio. Tonight's performance must surely be a cloud over his future prospects in the race.
Tonight has cost me the profits made on the two previous bets/trades. A bad show.
 
Hillary out to EVS
Sanders into 8/1
Trump into 5/1
Rubio out to 9/1
Jeb Bush into 14/1

Republican Candidate
Trump back into 6/4
Rubio out to 4/1
Bush into 5/1
 
It's musical chairs!!!

I'm going to sleep and will see whose left in the morning when the music stops!

I think Christie will be next out, I suspect Carson will stay in just to try and damage Cruz in SC before he too makes way

heads are spinnin'

Actually I should say, even if its going over old ground, but if Rubio is R2D2, then who advances on the so-called moderate wing? Christie is probably finished after tonight and won't last another 48 hours. Kasich is all but out of money and has little to no base in the states coming up. John Ellis could inherit momentum yet by virtue of not having cocked up - its bizarre! a candidate who generates momentum through inertia! Rubio can of course put this blip right, but having had a weakness exposed by the combative Christie others will probe for it now. Rubio won't be able to flannel and parry it away like you might do a policy issue. Having said that, one good performance will mend the fence, but the onus is on him now to put that performance in. Can he?

The early indications incidentally are that Hillary matched Bernie amongst registered Democrats, it was the indepednents that swung it for him. She might wobble a bit in Nevada (their next state) but should still win. After that though the batting order falls very much in her favour

Beware the one who calls himself Bloomberg though, this is a crazy campaign already and might just be going to get a whole lot crazier
 
On your last point.

@MsmithsonPB Maybe the time is right to bet on Bloomberg for the Presidency.

A bit like your 25/1 Bush idea this has very little downside.
 
@sppeoples Context: Ted Cruz spent $800k on NH airwaves. Jeb Bush's team spent $35 million.
 
I remain to be fully convinced that Hillary is a sure thing.
Last night's result was a relatively poor one for her -- not the defeat itself, but the margin of it -- no matter how we look at it.
As time goes on and as the forthcoming primaries unwind, can we expect her standing with the ordinary American citizen to increase? I see no reason why it should; the transcripts of the Goldman Sachs speeches will be toxic when they are finally released. Her honesty quotient in the minds of the voters is low at present and will hardly improve. She will be even moreso be perceived as a Wall Street stooge no matter how she tries to portray herself as a representative of the middle class. The Sanders camp has the momentum and is gaining traction. I think Evens has too high a risk-to-reward ratio for the price. I'm reluctant to tie up money until November at those odds and with all the attendant doubt.
 
If we're talking general election, then I suspect Bloomberg might hold the key for Hillary. I think there's a enough noise in her price to worry about his participation at even money

For stats backers, no Republican has ever secured the nomination having failed to win either Iowa or New Hampshire. On that alone, it's now a two horse race between the Donald, and the more dangerous (imho) Ted Cruz

If I were looking for a long range big priced position, I'd be inclined to go for Trump on a 50+ majority. I think the scenario that gives Trump a landslide is more plausible than the one that gives him a narrow victory, and yet I expect it to be priced the other way round

I did say a few weeks ago that Kasich was worth taking a position out on at 40/1, precisely with NH in mind. He's as a low as 16's now, and is bound to become a focus for media attention for a few days and might enjoy a similar bounce to that which Rubio did. His price might not be finished yet, but I'm not convinced at this stage he can go much shorter than 10/1 max (something I speculated was his bottom mark at the time, based on what Jeb was). Kasich has very little base outside of NH though, and isn't cash rich to get something going quickly. Even if donations flood in today, he still needs to mobilise ground workers. Kasich has a respectable record as Governor of Ohio though, so is going to have to rely on sympathetic analysts in the media to beat his drum. There is a route for him, but it isn't one that should work on the balance of likely outcomes. I'd be lookign to come out of him in 2-3 days time

Rubio by contrast is a first term Senator. It's much harder for a Senator to point to anything substantive that they've done other a few good speeches and a voting record. Rubio's come 3rd and 5th now, seemingly with the wind in his sails. His support could melt away pretty quickly, but then he's not likely to be subjected to the best debate performers again with Rand Paul out, Fiorina seemingly out sourced, and the fast talking former prosecutor Christie, likely to depart stage left. I think Rubio can put the damage right, but still might have to wear one in South Carolina first. Nevada becomes important for him I reckon (as it does Cruz)

I did of course invoke a similar logic earlier this week for Bush who'd gone to 18/1 for the nomination suggesting that now was the time to back him. He's as low as 9/2 again, and has been favourite before now. His money will keep him in the race, and right now if you were looking for a stayer he's as good a bet as any. I note he's also as low as 12/1 for the White House from 25/1 too. His chance probably hangs with Bloomnberg in that race though

I actually think the so called moderate field, despite being more crowded will thin out more quickly. The extremists however look to be hunkered in. Trump and Cruz aren't going anywhere soon. Rubio will want to get to Florida you think, but Bush could be strong there too by then. Rubio has 2020 and 2024 potentially in play. Does he want to damage his brand and start soaking up losses? might the establishment persuade him that its in his best interests to be a good Republican boy and do the decent thing before then? I think I'm right in saying Florida is a winner takes all state?

I'd be looking to come out of the Kasich position before SC I think, and reckon Bush is the staying hurdler who might come through yet. Think of him as a pertemps qualifier!
 
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icebreaker said:
I remain to be fully convinced that Hillary is a sure thing.
Last night's result was a relatively poor one for her -- not the defeat itself, but the margin of it -- no matter how we look at it.
As time goes on and as the forthcoming primaries unwind, can we expect her standing with the ordinary American citizen to increase?
Click to expand...

Remember that New Hampshire is slightly quirky in that its an 'open' primary. If you restrict the voting to registered Democrats (something that the upcoming states do) then the two were pretty well neck and neck in what should be one of Bernie's top-3 targets, (as they were in Iowa which they called for Hillary). It was the participation of the non aligned independents that gave Bernie the nod in New Hampshire. She might get a wobble on in Nevada which is a caucus, but after that she should prevail.
 
New Hampshire is also historically Clinton Country. Remember 2008 when New Hampshire made her the "comeback kid" after a devastating loss in Iowa.
Last summer, Hillary led Sanders in the polls in NH by around fifty points; last night she trailed in far behind by over 20 percentage points. Whatever way we cut it, the expectations of the Clinton camp were higher than this.
Hillary needs to quickly start connecting with the average American voter, but I think the suspicions of her are just too deep to overcome. Lack of trust about her transparency; well-founded suspicions about her connections with the banking behemoths; her image as the Washington establishment; all this she has to overcome. I just don't think Evens at this early stage is a gimme bet.
 
For such time as the spectre of Bloomberg lurks I wouldn't want even money about her either. Equally though the momentum in the GOP is still with the fascist tendancy of Cruz and Trump. That should ultimately concentrate a few Democrat minds and those of the normal American (what ever that is?). As I said earlier, it's quite a big middle ground opening up for someone like Bloomberg to drive through if a so-called moderate doesn't emerge from the Republican side
 
I think Evens is ok provided her vote is as strong as expected with African American and Latinos. You would expect her to bury Sanders in South Carolina. If she doesn't then all bets are off!
 
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I see Rubio is 3/1 and Bush out to 8/1 today. Have the GOP in too deep with Rubio after Iowa that they now have to ride him through March?
 
Trump is getting on a roll plain and simple. Some of the exit poll questions in his favor are simply mindboggling. My favorite is the one where 60% of the voters who disagree on his position of banning Muslims from entering the country voted for him nonetheless. Watching his victory speech it struck me what a hack he truly is but that marketing seems to trump (pardon the pun) everything else. “Make America great again” and “we have to start winning again” were reiterated at least a half dozen times, with the usual accompaniment about building the wall, kicking Isis ass and tearing China a new asshole etc etc.. There seems to be no letup in these messages popularity.

While I agree with some of your points reference Jeb if you have a position in Bush at 18/ 1 now is the time to take it. This has become a two horse race now for the Reps. My reasoning is that SC is a winner take all state and Jeb has no shot of getting those. He could perform respectably but it won’t be good enough to win. I had both CNN and Fox going simultaneously most of the night and the Bush campaign stated somewhere in there that they were going to go full nuclear in SC on Rubio and Kasich. WTF? That strategy if followed is simply not going to help him long term If he thinks he thinks he can cripple those two and become the “establishment” candidate I expect it to backfire simply for the reason that the disenfranchised sentiment is so high that should he be last man standing of those, he’ll get eaten up by Trump and Cruz. The disparity of money spent by Bush and Cruz in NH and the concluding results tells its own story. Plus we’ve already seen what happens when one candidate fires away at another not named Cruz or Trump. You take down the opposition but get mortally wounded in the process. Witness Christie.

Rubio has some nice endorsements in SC but endorsements are not working see Hillary who had the entire state apparatus of NH behind her and we see how that turned out. Plus it does look like he has been exposed. I think his current odds are just too short.

Kasich has no road forward. No organization to speak of down south and more importantly no money.

South Carolina is a completely different animal in that the high spend on television adds is essential. SC is known as a state where playing dirty comes into focus. Some of the biggest campaign smears in recent times originated there, Kerry and McCain being the recipients of some very nasty ones. You need cash to play in SC and the two guys clearly positioned to play are Cruz and Trump. While the victory speeches were still going on the first attack ads were being launched by Cruz and Trump against each other. They must be going at each other in the full knowledge that the winner is going to come from their battles looking toward Super Tuesday.

Don’t see the infatuation with Bloomberg. Where is any significant vote count going to come from. The Dems will eventually rally around Hillary. I expect her to get the ball rolling in big style here. He has simply no chance of getting the electoral votes needed. As an independent. Ross Perot won something like 19% of the popular vote in 1992 and not a single electoral vote. The deck is stacked heavily against any insurgents. Worst case scenario he hands the race to Trump by sabotaging the Democrats. Bloomberg despises Trump so he’ll think long and hard before he goes down that road.

Watching the Sanders rally last night I was struck by the energy, size and noise level of the crowd. If somehow he can translate that down south then he is the true wild card.
 
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