Rubio was the other player in 'dickgate', indeed, he started it, and he's fallen off a cliff since (even though he should win PR today). This is what's making me inclined to think what the American's have dubbed the DDD was the crucial factor (Detroit Debate Debacle)
If you look at the recent polling compared to the result however, the damage to Trump doesn't appear as catastrophic as first thought
KS - 23 from 35 (the big loss)
KY - 36 from 35 (he added a pt)
LA - 41 from 43
(MI) - 31 from 42
There was never any data for Maine, even though the conventional thinking was that Trump should win there. It was a closed caucus however in a small state. There were always grounds for thinking he was vulnerable there, but he was well beaten in the end. I got that bit right, I failed on the identity of the assailant though! I can only assume that the much vaunted Cruz ground game (a euphamism for Tea Party) kicked in. This should become an informative insight going forward
It's worth noting that Nate Silver has already poured cold water on the ARG poll for Michigan explaining that there are house errors in it, and that they've consistently over estimated Kasich by an average of 6%. Needless to say however, this was a state that Trump seemingly had locked up until a few days ago. He's put it back in play now. At the very least he's on a reduced delegate count. He should still carry Mississippi based on his performance in Lousiana and Alabama, and effectively lock up the deep south.
There's a lot of moving parts, but I think the picture is becoming a bit clearer now
Trump is clearly struggling in caucuses (2 from 7), particularly 'closed' contests. There are only 3 caucus states left now (Hawaii, DC, & Montana)
It would be helpful to make up a list of the WTA states now and see just how they're selecting their candidate. Open Primaries are Trump's best bet
Despite what happened in Maine (the result seems to have come down to one county on the Canadian border that broke heavily for Cruz), I think Trump is still holding the Atlantic coast and all things being equal you'd expect North Carolina, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticuit, and Maryland to hold (could be vulnerable in Maryland to the Baltimore effect, but I can't imagine that there's that many black Republicans). Going inland a bit I'd expect he can probably take West Virginia too
Where he's not making the progress I thought he would is Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, and Wisconsin. The only state he was polling well in amongst these was Michigan. That was a bit of a stronghold until he introduced 'Mr Helmet Head' to debate. OK Kasich holds a clear hand in Ohio, and you'd expect that Wisconsin could follow Minnesota for trending purposes. This is starting look like where it will now be won or lost. The question is can Cruz get traction here? Logic says not, but the key is going to be Kasich
I don't see Trump doing anything out in the west (or can he?, there are yankee influences on the Pacific coast). Well he might uniquely stand a chance against Cruz? He leads the polls in Arizona but I expect John McCain to oversee that result for Cruz. New Mexico, California, Washington and Oregon all look tough, and will require some kind of game changer. Utah is Romeny country, so you forget that. Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Nebraska and the Dakotas? I can't see how his fascist brand will overpower Cruz's evangelicalism
There is however a possibility that whilst America starts to breath a sigh of relief and perhaps begins to realise that Trump is beatable, this has to be tempered by the candidate who is emerging as the best bet!!! Ted Cruz is staright out of the Curtis LeMay school, except with lashings and lashings of God to boot.
