US Presidential election 2016

[icebreaker]

The betting market suggests, though, that Clnton will overcome Bernie in Michigan as the count proceeds.

 

[Warbler]

I think the early closers were college towns or students or something? (could be a Trump spoiler saying that?)

I'm currently seeing Trump +5.9 with 5.7% reporting.

That would be massive for Kasich, and you'd have to fancy him in Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania on that. Even Illinois becomes vulnerable

Bottle of scotch and revolver for Mr Rubio

Will be interesting to see how Wayne county goes. I believe this is the one the covers the black vote of Detroit.

 

[Warbler]

I'm just starting to think that if the collapse of Rubio continues into Idaho, then Cruz could get the 50% threshold to sweep the delegates

Also if the results feed into the Hawaian caucuses, the Trump might get home there too

 

[icebreaker]

Trump really pulling away now in Michigan with 26% counted. 10 percentage points ahead.

On the Dem side, must say I'm impressed with Bernie's performance in Michigan, win or lose.

 

[Warbler]

Looks like they've called Michigan. It was always likely to be Trump's strongest Lakes State.

Kasich is in the process of replacing Rubio though

Early indications are that Trump might break 50% in Mississippi. I think CNN had an exit poll that had him on the boundary. That would be a big WTA haul, but I can't see it myself.

Rubio appears to have imploded there. Does he risk his reputation in Florida now?

 

[brendanr]

Rubio appears to have imploded there. Does he risk his reputation in Florida now?

Of course he does, he has nowhere else to go now. Not that it will matter imo. I think Cruz trying to sabotage Rubio will backfire on him because in a mano a mano, were it to materialize against Trump, he loses.
There are only two scenarios left for the GOP. Trump gets the needed number of delegates or he doesn't. I'd back the former.

 

[Warbler]

I wouldn't be quite so certain. I think Rubio will take the stage for the final debate certainly, but there looks like there's a division in his camp now regarding his participation. Isn't he supposed to have made some oblique reference about being pressurised to stay in? It's been noted too that he's taken to popping pills rather publicly amid rumours that he's personally finding this tough now

He's not standing for senate again, and if he's to continue in politics his logical line would be Governor. That isn't going to be helped by finishing third in Florida. It's certainly true to say he has no where to go, but then at what point does he start thinking about limiting personal damage? He's barely picking up enough votes now get the odd proportional delegate

 

[brendanr]

I wouldn't be quite so certain. I think Rubio will take the stage for the final debate certainly, but there looks like there's a division in his camp now regarding his participation. Isn't he supposed to have made some oblique reference about being pressurised to stay in? It's been noted too that he's taken to popping pills rather publicly amid rumours that he's personally finding this tough now

He's not standing for senate again, and if he's to continue in politics his logical line would be Governor. That isn't going to be helped by finishing third in Florida. It's certainly true to say he has no where to go, but then at what point does he start thinking about limiting personal damage? He's barely picking up enough votes now get the odd proportional delegate

Running for governor of Florida is 3 years away, the incumbent cannot run again so plenty of time for Rubio to recalibrate. American politics is filled with comeback stories of politicians who flamed out at some point of their career. Rubio is still young enough if he wishes to continue with some sort of political career. Who knows he might do better than expected in Florida to use that as some sort of springboard. His presidential bid for all intents and purposes is over.

 

[Warbler]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the GOP pull him out after the debate or more strategically perhaps, after DC, Guam and the US Virgin Islands where he might pick up a something

I honestly don't see how he wins Florida now with both Trump and Cruz double teaming him. I think they might reach a stage in the next 48 hours where they write Florida off.

His polling in North Carolina is only just hovering above 15%.

His withdrawal however will probably secure Ohio for Kasich and could concievably put Trump under pressure in Illinois. I suspect Cruz benefits too in Missouri. I'm far from convinced that the fivethreeeight Trump model to the white house has got Missouri right

Basically he's not realistically going to win any of those WTA states. All he's going to do is take support from other candidates. If hypothetically all Rubio's support transferred to Kasich in Illinois, then Trump has got a problem there and that could translate into a shortfall of 69 delegates. I think the GOP strtagists need to start thinking in terms of making a stand on the Lakes states and trust Cruz will win the Plains

Rubio could conceivably get something out of Rhode Island and Oregon, but I suspect the net effect of his participation is to damage the anti Trump push now

 

[brendanr]

The GOP can´t pull him out. They can only plead with him to go and hope he acquiesces. I think he would do more damage to himself if he did pull out from Florida. He has staked a good chunk of his reputation on this primary and I'm not sure quitting before the race has been run will do him any favors.

Cruz´strategy is baffling to me. He is basically handing the Donald, Florida on a silver plate. He won't get a one on one as long as Kasich is still in play. So let`s say Trump wins Ohio which the polls are currently predicting although quite close to m.o.e.. If Kasich loses and does as he says and steps out that leaves Trump and Cruz with Cruz toiling big time after Trump clears all delegates there and in Florida. I expect the Don to win in Illinois and North Carolina which leaves Missouri´s WTA up for grabs where I suppose Cruz has a real shot. but if loses there the whole thing is over. Even if he wins he is facing more than a Mt. Everest to win.

The screeching of the GOP while their balls are being squeezed ever tighter in the Trump vise is going to continue with no mercy given.

 

[Warbler]

I think Rubio is behaving more and more like a client than a candidate. I'm sure if the GOP asked him to walk, he would

I think Cruz's strategy is sound enough though given the limited scope he has. I think he's probably accepted he can't beat Trump, but needs to get him into a brokered convention whilst being near enough to be a credible replacement.

Cruz has quite rightly concluded that he too will be the victim of a brokered convention unless he can knock both Rubio and Katich out the race. He fancies his chances if he can force the convention to choose between him and Trump. It's a fine balancing act, as it does run the risk of Trump getting past 1237 delegates

I don't think he minds handing Trump Florida if the price is finishing off Rubio. That clears the way for him to possibly pick up the west coast (not totally convinced he will myself)

I think Kasich wins Ohio myself, and it will be interesting to see how Cruz campaigns in the Lakes states, if Rubio drops. Wisconsin might be in play for him, but otherwise he'd be better off concentrating on the Plains states, west coast, and possibly Arizona and New Mexico

Cruz has realistic expectations of 100% sweeping Nebraska (36) Montana (21) South Dakota (29) and Winner takes most - Utah (40). I think we can probably banks these for him which 86 + Utah

I think based on Oklahoma, Iowa and Kansas, you'd have to accept that if he makes an effort in Missouri he should get pick up 52 there too. He's probably got 150ish now

You suspect that he's gearing up to try and sweep the west coast California (172) but Washington and Oregon are proportional. He needs Kasich to deny Trump in Illinois, Indiana and Pennsylvania

I think there's a tight window he's trying to play between narrowing the field and risking Trump winning outright. He basically needs Rubio to drop out in the next week, and Kasich to drop out on April 27th

I wouldn't be so sure myself however that Kasich's voters wouldn't more naturally realign with Trump than Cruz though?

 

[Grasshopper]

This is a very interesting and informative thread - as these US politics threads usually are - but I have one question:

Have any of the participants had a bet, and if so, what have you backed?

I'm assuming that there is more to this analysis than mere pondering, and that you have adopted positions along the way? I know of at least one sewer-rat who has contributed, and I find it hard to believe he would go to the effort, if he wasn't chockful of related wagers.

 

[brendanr]

I think Rubio is behaving more and more like a client than a candidate. I'm sure if the GOP asked him to walk, he would

I think Cruz's strategy is sound enough though given the limited scohe he has. I think he's probably accepted he can't beat Trump, but needs to get him into a brokered convention whilst being near enough to be a credible replacement.

Cruz has quite rightly concluded that he too will be the victim of a brokered convention unless he can knock both Rubio and Katich out the race. He fancies his chances if he can force the convention to choose between him and Trump. It's a fine balancing act, as it does run the risk of Trump getting past 1237 delegates

I don't think he minds handing Trump Florida if the price is finishing off Rubio. That clears the way for him to possibly pick up the west coast (not totally convinced he will myself)

I think Kasich wins Ohio myself, and it will be interesting to see how Cruz campaigns in the Lakes states, if Rubio drops. Wisconsin might be in play for him, but otherwise he'd be better off concentrating on the Plains states, west coast, and possibly Arizona and New Mexico

Cruz has realistic expectations of 100% sweeping Nebraska (36) Montana (21) South Dakota (29) and Winner takes most - Utah (40). I think we can probably banks these for him which 86 + Utah

I think based on Oklahoma, Iowa and Kansas, you'd have to accept that if he makes an effort in Missouri he should get pick up 52 there too. He's probably got 150ish now

You suspect that he's gearing up to try and sweep the west coast California (172) but Washington and Oregon are proportional. He needs Kasich to deny Trump in Illinois, Indiana and Pennsylvania

I think there's a tight window he's trying to play between narrowing the field and risking Trump winning outright. He basically needs Rubio to drop out in the next week, and Kasich to drop out on April 27th

I wouldn't be so sure myself however that Kasich's voters wouldn't more naturally realign with Trump than Cruz though?

Interesting but I don't get the California bit for Cruz. I'm originally from California and lived up and down the State admittedly a few decades ago but unless there has been a major transformation I cannot see Cruz coming within a country mile of the delegates. There are three major population areas in the state and he probably won't get 10 votes in San Francisco and while LA county is quite diverse I don't see him doing much damage there either. San Diego county is the most conservative of the three and he might gain some traction but it won't be enough. Central California the farmland of the state simply does not have the numbers to support someone as staunchly conservative as Cruz. Oregon and Washington are proportional and Trump will be collecting the lion's share in those. A lot of the States east of the coast could be in play for Cruz but the delegate counts are not very big, Arizona being the biggest with WTA 58 and I'd give Trump a big advantage there as well.

As for Kasich playing spoiler he couldn't even beat Cruz in Michigan for the 2nd spot much less bother Trump. Imo he won't pose much of a threat to Trump in the states you mention.

Cruz is playing the semantics game and has stated he will have nothing to do with a brokered convention which means the party bosses pull a rabbit out of the hat. He would however have no problem with a contested convention where there is a voting procedure in place to nominate the candidate if the magic number has not been reached. Very convoluted all this but I'll stick with my original assertion that if Trump somehow takes Ohio the show is over. If he does not it just goes on a while longer with the same, for me at least, inevitable ending with Trump as the nominee. Then your statement a while back will come into play that Hillary is the last buffer between Trump and total chaos.

 

[brendanr]

This is a very interesting and informative thread - as these US politics threads usually are - but I have one question:

Have any of the participants had a bet, and if so, what have you backed?

I'm assuming that there is more to this analysis than mere pondering, and that you have adopted positions along the way? I know of at least one sewer-rat who has contributed, and I find it hard to believe he would go to the effort, if he wasn't chockful of related wagers.

The only position I had was a while back when I cashed out of Rubio at a small loss. In retrospect obviously a good decision.
I currently see no juice in this election with the type of wagers that are being offered.

I do however have a very interesting book of positions for Dubai World Cup nite if you are interested :blink:

 

[Warbler]

Interesting but I don't get the California bit for Cruz.

He's polled surprisingly well in California, (25% with a deeper field than this) and there has always been a religious tradition in the GOP there going back to Reagan. Interestingly though it was Rubio who'd raised the most money in CA

So far as I can gather, Cruz is getting battered in the bay area, and is struggling in LA too. I wouldn't overlook how Pearl Harbour and Norfolk broke for Trump and whether some of this might carry over into San Diego. Might find Trump takes Guam in a couple of days on a military vote too.

If Trump wins Ohio then I agree, its over. I just don't think he will though. There's a poll out today that gives him a 6pt lead with plenty of noise in it to overturn that, which has been a sort of pattern amongst the undecideds and the tactical voters. Kasich is favourite for his home state I reckon

The Rubio/ Kasich vote in the Lakes states would still beat Trump as things stand today on the most recent data. Cruz has to build a stratgey around something, and this looks as feasible as anything. If he can turn it into a crap shoot on the west coast then he still has a punchers chance

I'd expect John McCain to able to swing Arizona for someone other than Trump, but I can't really imagine he's a natural Cruz ally. New Mexico might be interesting yet stuck down at the end. How many hispanic settlers are likely regsieterd Republicans? I haven't seen any data for the state, but wouldn't shocked if Trump proved to be more competitive there than we might imagine in a closed primary on a secret ballot

I'm gonna try and get that delegate predictor tool working later and see what i come up with!!!

 

[icebreaker]

I think Kasich wins Ohio myself,

I'm not 100% confident of that anymore. The later results from the southern counties of Michigan went strongly against Kasich last night. Seeing as these counties border Ohio, I would have expected a better showing; and it's not an positive indicator of his strength in Ohio itself. I'll swerve having any bet in this particular contest.

 

[Warbler]

I am conscious that since I started to engage more with anti Trump websites I've started to under estimate his support and become less accurate than I was a couple of months ago, but I still think Kasich will sneak this

The new poll out today has Trump 6pts ahead with 5% undecided, Rubio on 9%, and Cruz on 16%.

The late deciders in Michigan broke 40% for Kasich

They've also got another debate for Trump to perform poorly in

Also (and this has to be a clincher :lol Jeb has called a troika tonight of the small hands club. So 'lyin' Ted, 'lil' Marco, and normal John have been summoned by Jeb to perform a triple alliance/ pact of steel. Quite how Cruz will play ball is anyone's guess?

 

[Warbler]

Also (and this has to be a clincher :lol Jeb has called a troika tonight of the small hands club. So 'lyin' Ted, 'lil' Marco, and normal John have been summoned by Jeb to perform a triple alliance/ pact of steel. Quite how Cruz will play ball is anyone's guess?

My read on this now is that Lil Marco will be pressurised to drop out after DC and the US Virgins, (where he has possibilities), but before Florida. They'll sacrifice Florida in order to put Illinois, Ohio, North Carolina, and Missouri into play. They need a game changer or they're just meekly marching off to the scaffold. This fits that description as all four states could be over turned on current data if Rubio's support co-operates, and even a late surge for Cruz in Florida wouldn't be beyond comprehension if Rubio endorsed him (despite all the wasted early ballots being lost)

In the space of one night they could turn the whole thing round and go a long way to assuring a brokered convention.

Trump would then be forced into winning the west coast, California in particular, and hope to clear out New York on the 50% threshold to make it WTA. He'd still have good claims on New Jersey, Maryland, West Virginia, and Connecticuit.

OK it requires Ted Cruz to co-operate, and he knows he's not exactly the preferred choice of a brokered convention too, which is where such a strategy leads, but if they don't agree to co-operate, they're all losing. It's a high stakes game of the 'prisoners dilemma'

I do wonder if there's a betting angle all of sudden, betting in anticipation of them being able to do a deal, as it would potentially open up six states where you might get value odds against?

 

[Warbler]

So this is it then Jeb Bush is Richard Burton!!!

"perhaps, but not as painful as that long drop to the end of rope", said Jeb
Lil Marco paused "Well.... I seem to have no cards left to play do I?"
"No, Lil Marco, you don't"
"Do I have an alternative?"
"If you want it", said Jeb looking towards the aircrafts door

 

[Warbler]

Fox News (one time Rubio echo chamber) are reporting that Rubio's "money men" have told them that unless his polling starts to improve dramatically, he'll suspend his campaign before Florida

This makes a lot of sense to me. It allows Rubio to participate in the upcoming debate and fire off at Trump without a care in the world. Trump has a thin skin and should be easy to drag into an unedifying contest. It also allows him to participate in this next round of highly unpredictable voting. The US Virgin islands have 8 delegates, DC has 19 etc Guam might go for Trump for a few if it follows the military pattern (its basically an airbase in the Pacific). Rubio polled well in the Washington suburbs in Virginia and wouldn't be without hope in DC. No one knows much about the Virgins. Ron Paul won the vote in 2012, but only 258 people took part. The chances are they're free thinking sorts who probably consider their candidates quite seriously

Once this has played out by Sunday, Lil Marco can drop out

The chances are Cruz has too much ground to make up on Trump in Florida. He's currently 12/1 and will fill the void left by Rubio 7/2, but 20% of the state has voted early. Trump will carry his votes, Marco's will be lost in effect. I also suspect there will be some residual bad blood towards Cruz from Rubio loyalists, but he could get within 5% of Trump yet

The effect of Rubio coming out however should hand Cruz Missouri (a state he would likely win anyway). It should also ensure that Kasich takes Ohio

That leaves Illinois and North Carolina.

Trump had never really lit up Illinois like he did Michigan. Chicago is a more mercantile city than Detroit. It is worth noting that issues of globalisation, free trade, and protectionism have started to frame the debate a bit in the last 48 hours with both Trump and Sanders winning Michigan.

I'm not so sure that this will provide enough backdrop in Illinois

If we take the RCP average for Illinois we have

Trump = 33
Rubio = 19
Cruz = 18
Kasich = 13
unallaocted = 17

If Rubio's support theoretically switches to Kasich, then we're very tight all of a sudden. Now that won't happen quite so perfectly. Second preference polling always indicated that Rubio's support would naturally go to Cruz, but these polls were conducted in southern states I think. Cruz has some pretty unpleasant turn off views in the north. He should be able to replicate his Michigan vote at least on a smaller field. Trump will also pick up about 10% of Rubio's vote you feel (there's always anomolies). Some Rubio support will stay at home, and I think it possible that Trump might start to garner a little bit of a sympathy vote from people who can see what's going on i.e. the GOP mobilising their dark forces to impose a nominee of their choice. These won't be significant in number, but the two things combined could add 2pts with perhaps anothetr couple coming from the undecideds and a theoretical score of 37%. If Cruz then hits 25%, Kasich would get 38%. Illionois with 69 delegates WTA suddenly becomes crucial.

North Carolina is more problematic, and confused further by the fact that its a proportional state. It's not apaprent who the 'go to' anti Trump candidate is here. I've decided to use the most recent poll rather than the average as I suspect it'll be more reliable than those

Trump = 41
Cruz = 27
Rubio = 14
Kasich = 11
unallocated = 7

North Carolina isn't an evangelical state. Are they going to get behind Cruz?. I suspect three quarters of Rubio's supporters will, but that's only brings him up to 32%. If you use the RCP average though, Trump is 33% and much more vulnerable. Cruz is going to need support from Kasich.

Cruz is a notoriously uncompromising no deals of any sorts with anyone (other than with God). Kasich and Cruz have a prisoners dilemma revolving around North Carolina and Illinois. If they get it on, they can do Trump a lot of damage and put both states into play potentially denying him about 90 delegates, but here's the problem. Illinois is 69 WTA, North Carolina is 72 proportional. The scope to do deal is skewed by this dynamic I reckon. Is Cruz going to really trade a WTA position in Illinois for a proportional one in NC? Cruz is also arrogant enough to think that he perhaps should be the #stoptrump candidate, he is polling ahead of Kasich in Illinois after all, but probably has a lot less room for improvement in his position

Might be interesting to see if there's any books for the DC caucus incidentally, that could be fun! Don't rule Rubio out there! It shouldn't go Cruz, nor should it go Trump. The US Virgin Islands is a guessing game. I understand Cruz has made some kind of effort sending his dad out there, but Santourm only got 23 votes in 2012. I just feel that it they'd wanted an evangelical they'd have voted for them previously. I wouldn't be shocked if we got a bit of Johnmentum in the Virgins.

EDIT - after investigating the American Virgins in greater detail, I learn that Kasich isn't on the ballot (Carson and Bush are). One assumes that Cruz wins this now at a canter

I think there's grounds for suspecting that Trump can win Guam

 

[brendanr]

Fox News (one time Rubio echo chamber) are reporting that Rubio's "money men" have told them that unless his polling starts to improve dramatically, he'll suspend his campaign before Florida

This makes a lot of sense to me. It allows Rubio to participate in the upcoming debate and fire off at Trump without a care in the world. Trump has a thin skin and should be easy to drag into an unedifying contest. It also allows him to participate in this next round of highly unpredictable voting. The US Virgin islands have 8 delegates, DC has 19 etc Guam might go for Trump for a few if it follows the military pattern (its basically an airbase in the Pacific). Rubio polled well in the Washington suburbs in Virginia and wouldn't be without hope in DC. No one knows much about the Virgins. Ron Paul won the vote in 2012, but only 258 people took part. The chances are they're free thinking sorts who probably consider their candidates quite seriously

Once this has played out by Sunday, Lil Marco can drop out

The chances are Cruz has too much ground to make up on Trump in Florida. He's currently 12/1 and will fill the void left by Rubio 7/2, but 20% of the state has voted early. Trump will carry his votes, Marco's will be lost in effect. I also suspect there will be some residual bad blood towards Cruz from Rubio loyalists, but he could get within 5% of Trump yet

The effect of Rubio coming out however should hand Cruz Missouri (a state he would likely win anyway). It should also ensure that Kasich takes Ohio

That leaves Illinois and North Carolina.

Trump had never really lit up Illinois like he did Michigan. Chicago is a more mercantile city than Detroit. It is worth noting that issues of globalisation, free trade, and protectionism have started to frame the debate a bit in the last 48 hours with both Trump and Sanders winning Michigan.

I'm not so sure that this will provide enough backdrop in Illinois

If we take the RCP average for Illinois we have

Trump = 33
Rubio = 19
Cruz = 18
Kasich = 13
unallaocted = 17

If Rubio's support theoretically switches to Kasich, then we're very tight all of a sudden. Now that won't happen quite so perfectly. Second preference polling always indicated that Rubio's support would naturally go to Cruz, but these polls were conducted in southern states I think. Cruz has some pretty unpleasant turn off views in the north. He should be able to replicate his Michigan vote at least on a smaller field. Trump will also pick up about 10% of Rubio's vote you feel (there's always anomolies). Some Rubio support will stay at home, and I think it possible that Trump might start to garner a little bit of a sympathy vote from people who can see what's going on i.e. the GOP mobilising their dark forces to impose a nominee of their choice. These won't be significant in number, but the two things combined could add 2pts with perhaps anothetr couple coming from the undecideds and a theoretical score of 37%. If Cruz then hits 25%, Kasich would get 38%. Illionois with 69 delegates WTA suddenly becomes crucial.

North Carolina is more problematic, and confused further by the fact that its a proportional state. It's not apaprent who the 'go to' anti Trump candidate is here. I've decided to use the most recent poll rather than the average as I suspect it'll be more reliable than those

Trump = 41
Cruz = 27
Rubio = 14
Kasich = 11
unallocated = 7

North Carolina isn't an evangelical state. Are they going to get behind Cruz?. I suspect three quarters of Rubio's supporters will, but that's only brings him up to 32%. If you use the RCP average though, Trump is 33% and much more vulnerable. Cruz is going to need support from Kasich.

Cruz is a notoriously uncompromising no deals of any sorts with anyone (other than with God). Kasich and Cruz have a prisoners dilemma revolving around North Carolina and Illinois. If they get it on, they can do Trump a lot of damage and put both states into play potentially denying him about 90 delegates, but here's the problem. Illinois is 69 WTA, North Carolina is 72 proportional. The scope to do deal is skewed by this dynamic I reckon. Is Cruz going to really trade a WTA position in Illinois for a proportional one in NC? Cruz is also arrogant enough to think that he perhaps should be the #stoptrump candidate, he is polling ahead of Kasich in Illinois after all, but probably has a lot less room for improvement in his position

Might be interesting to see if there's any books for the DC caucus incidentally, that could be fun! Don't rule Rubio out there! It shouldn't go Cruz, nor should it go Trump. The US Virgin Islands is a guessing game. I understand Cruz has made some kind of effort sending his dad out there, but Santourm only got 23 votes in 2012. I just feel that it they'd wanted an evangelical they'd have voted for them previously. I wouldn't be shocked if we got a bit of Johnmentum in the Virgins.

EDIT - after investigating the American Virgins in greater detail, I learn that Kasich isn't on the ballot (Carson and Bush are). One assumes that Cruz wins this now at a canter

I think there's grounds for suspecting that Trump can win Guam

Rubio getting out before the Florida primary is not happening.

 

[SlimChance]

Trump is 1.44 to win the nomination. At a certain point you have to stop analysing and realise it's over.

 

[Warbler]

Rubio getting out before the Florida primary is not happening.

I honestly wouldn't so certain. There's a lot noise around the camp at the moment. Rubio denies it of course. He's saying exactly the same sorts of things as Jeb and Ben Carson did 3 or 4 days before they suspended

Basically the stakes are high now, and there's a cut off coming on Tuesday where they could still do something if they can stop Trump taking Illinois, Missouri and Ohio, whilst limiting him in North Carolina. If they miss this deadline and Trump takes those states, then he's pretty well home and hosed. They're either going to make a stand, or they're going to surrender. The GOP can't keep kicking this can down the road.

Rubio has few, if any, cards left to play. He might get delegates in North Carolina, he might get something out of DC, American Samoa and Oregon. That's his lot

If Ohio drops of course than Kasich suspends (as he's said he would) that pretty well locks Trump into all of New York's delegates too as i can't see Cruz stopping him reaching 50% there having used 'New York values' as an insult earlier in the campaign

They've simply got to do something soon (next 4 days) the question is what, and will it work?

 

[Warbler]

Trump is 1.44 to win the nomination. At a certain point you have to stop analysing and realise it's over.

It's been noted in the US that betting markets have been poor predictors (I'm of the view that the UK markets have been better than the US markets actually) but I wouldn't want to be a backer at 1.44 just yet. There are certainly plausible scenarios that could come into play. A lot of it is smoke and mirrors though. The only thing we do know is that GOP possesses an incentive (even if they're trying to balance 1001 different aegndas) and despite all the names its being called and people openly laughing at them, they do have some extremely influential and powerful people buried in amongst them. I wouldn't under estimate them. Having said that, they are doing a very convincing job of trying to persuade us otherwise!!!

 

[Warbler]

Carson finally does drop out now (officially)

I suspect his vote will scatter quite evenly, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Trump benefits most, and neither would I be shocked if Trump picks up an endorsement. I think if you join the dots up, there are clues to suggest that this might be in the air

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/03/10/ben-carson-plans-to-endorse-trump/

Mind you, I also said (in response to Brendan) when trying to decode Carsons concession speech that when he (Carson) said voters shouldn't be driven by fear, and that this could be read as being both favourably for, or unfavourably against Trump, although it clearly wasn't an endorsement. If it was an endorsement, then he'd have said "I endorse Donald Trump" but I wasn't completely convinced it was a refusal either. It was just ambigious

There's an interesting semantic there though.

Fear of Trump, and being scared by what he might be capable of, is often cited by those who oppose him as a reason for doing so. Having said that, I tend to agree that its not an endorsement of Trump, but even in concession Dr Carson doesn't seem to be able to spell out anything with any clarity