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Vulnerable Favourites

M

Maruco

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 7, 2004
Messages
4,784
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The Shire
Following on from the Altior thread I posted earlier, and the ‘lay’ part of the ‘back, lay, ew’ thread, it would be interesting to get views from forumites on which favourites you can see being beaten? There are plenty that are short enough that may be vulnerable, and history tells us they won’t all win. In fact it tells us most won’t

Will Buveur D’air be turned over? Is Tiger Roll really bomb proof? Is Paisley Park really that good? Is the JLT really a two horse race? Is Sir Erec a lucicrous price? And if so what beats them and why? You get the gist. Which races are ripe for a boil over?
 
Boov, Paisley Park, Percy.

Buveur, probably be bomb proof, but I think giving 7 pounds to the mare is too much to ask. Can actually see Apples Jade going off favourite.

Paisley Park, so very impressive, as was Sam Spinner last year though. I think the stayers may turn out to be a high class field, if he wins fair play and he has every chance to do so. Certainly not interested in any of the 9/4 that's available now.

Percy, pretty self explanatory really.
 
Paisley Park - Just not for me at the price and whilst he’s won his races impressively, I think the form of his last two races would not stand up to a full strength Stayers Hurdle field. If Penhill ran in this (we know he won’t be now), along with Faugheen and Samcro, I just couldn’t seem him in the first three. His form of giving weight to Shades of Midnight at Haydock I think is his strongest piece of form and that’s not Stayers Hurdle winning form in my opinion. Faugheen at full strength wins but I do like the look of Bapaume running into a place after his last running on finish behind Presenting Percy at Gowran.

OK Corral - Anytime Henderson mentions this horse he seems sure to make it clear he thinks he’s a RSA horse and may not necessarily get 4 miles. Could be a case of putting us away but is he really going to do that over a horse that’s now favourite? If he stays he wins but 5/2 about something that the trainer isn’t sure will stay is risky. Not sure this is a race I’ll play at the moment unless the Worlds End runs in it.

Laurina Champion Hurdle - Granted she’s not clear favourite but at 7/2-4/1 she could go off shorter. She could be a machine but they’ve never ran her outside of mares company. If they thought she was bomb proof for this then I’d have expected her to have at least run against the geldings once before like Annie Power did? If the ground is good/good to soft I couldn’t see her beating either Melon or Sharjah let alone Apple’s Jade or Buveir D’Air.
 
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No such thing as a bombproof Frankel type fav at the Festival. I would rank them:

Ultra Solid - Benie Des Dieux, Altior, Tiger

Solid - Buveur D'air, Paisley Park, Percy, Sir Erec, Delta Work (if fav), Monalee (if fav)

So so - Lalor, Santini (if fav), Epatante, Footpa[FONT=&quot]d[/FONT] (if fav)

Vulnerable - Al Dancer, Champ, Bumper fav, Lostintranslation, Bartllett Fav

Won't Win - OK Corral
 
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Cheltenham Favs??? 2 favs won from 20 races over the jumps today.......hardly need to worry Chelteham will be much the same.

As for Buvi he is rock solid. Apple's Jade wouldn't win any Champion Hurdle in the last 40 years bar maybe Sublimity's

She's running round Ireland beating absolute dross and when she did go into the big time last year she fell flat on her face

Supasundae who she has bean beaten had a very tough season last year and hasn't looked a shadow of himself and I could beat Jetzki these days on a tandem.

Sure they are right to send her but she will be outclassed but could get 2nd which is worth more than the mares....common sense saus send her as any horse can have an off day but Buveur D'air is a dual winner who looked as good as ever.

Wouldn't back the Supreme Fav with Bad money anything could win it this year.

I think young Bella Woolacott has been giving Lalor way too many carrots and he thinks he's a cat not a racehorse LOL..I wonder if he's tough enough for an Arkle

Wouldn't trust OK Coral as far as I could throw him......

Champ looks rock solid but Santini would have me running for cover and not betting in the race

Tiger Roll is shockingly bad value at 11/10 for the cross country with the National coming up...will he even run?

Tizzard says Lostintranslation is a future Gold Cup horse........tough as nails deserves to be fav but win? probably will find one or two too good

Monalee? will be beaten

Paisley Park rock solid banker


Epstante looks a very dodgy bet he's far from fully matured or has a screw loose IMO

Sit Erec.....If he is the new Istabraq a some say and wasn't 100% last time but won easy he'll win hard held
 
HawkWing has posted elsewhere about the OK Corral form being badly let down by poor runs from Secret Investor at Kempton and Ricky’s Treasure today and he’s certainly one who looks vulnerable on that evidence. Maybe the extra distance will help but NJH hasn’t seemed positive on that score.

Also think the Champ form can be questioned after Getaway Trump’s poor effort today

After thinking Lalor would be a strong favourite I’m not so sure now and would have liked to see him have another run after the poor effort at Sandown


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Kauto is also having doubts about OK Coral now...It's spreading faster than Ike Clanton's brains when Doc holiday blasted him with that shotgun:lol:
 
Buveur is the obvious choice. Melon threatened to get to him in last year's Champion Hurdle, but didn't go through with it. On the other hand Verdana Blue did see it out at Kempton, and I think at least one of the mares will repeat the dose next week.
 
The Baker's dozen
Al Dancer 10/3
Lalor 7/2
buveur D'air 2/1
Benie De Dieux 5/4
OK Corral 10/3
Champ 3/1
Delta Work 9/4
Altoir 4/9
Tiger Roll 11/10
Paisley Park 2/1
Epatante 5/2
Sir Eric 6/5
Stand Up And Fight 10/3 or so.
How many would fancy a 13 timer ?
11 timer ?
10 timer ?
Personally a Benie/Delta Work/ Altior/ Tiger Roll/ Sir Eric 26 bet combo would do nicely but would drop Altior for a larger stake yankee.
 
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Did a Benie/Delta/Sir Erec treble earlier. No guarantee of course and I’m normally rubbish with multiples but on paper it looks solid. I think I’ll try a few each way doubles and trebles on bigger price horses throughout the festival when the declarations are near enough/definitely confirmed.

Paisley Park I can’t have and it seems all the books want to take Champ on at every turn. I think Al Dancer will place but will find one or two too good. Ok Corral I’d be rerouting to the RSA if the Santini rumours were founded.
 
Looking at that list of 12 I'm keen to take 7 of them on. Almost half of the races have horses at 10/3 or less, and we're still not at finals dec stage. Awful.
 
Maruco said:
Looking at that list of 12 I'm keen to take 7 of them on. Almost half of the races have horses at 10/3 or less, and we're still not at finals dec stage. Awful.
Click to expand...

Which 7 out of curiosity? Just keen to get a bit of discussion going. This week is going to be a long week!
 
Al Dancer 10/3
Lalor 7/2
OK Corral 10/3
Champ 3/1
Paisley Park 2/1
Epatante 5/2
Sir Eric 6/5

I possibly wouldn't be a layer but I wouldn't be a backer now either. I'd be keen to take them on with something else, possibly each way. I should admit to the fact that I'm on five of the seven at much bigger prices (four each way), however.
 
Sir Erec is the one everyone in racing on these Cheltenham preview nights they just can’t see beaten. The cynical side of me does wonder if it’s a bomb proof as they suggest.
 
You fellows can really spoil the fun of ante post betting.
I’ve had a couple of decent early bets and multi cornerstones at good prices go down already - Master Dino 10/1��, and Dynamo Dollars. I have been consoling myself that some of my remaining ones will more than make up for those gut wrenchers. Of those still remaining in several multiples and singles OK Corral at 8’s and 10’s,and Stand Up and Fight 8’s are being written off. Please sod off!
 
Tout Seul said:
You fellows can really spoil the fun of ante post betting.
I’ve had a couple of decent early bets and multi cornerstones at good prices go down already - Master Dino 10/1��, and Dynamo Dollars. I have been consoling myself that some of my remaining ones will more than make up for those gut wrenchers. Of those still remaining in several multiples and singles OK Corral at 8’s and 10’s,and Stand Up and Fight 8’s are being written off. Please sod off!
Click to expand...
:lol:
 
edgt said:
Personally a Benie/Delta Work/ Altior/ Tiger Roll/ Sir Eric 26 bet combo would do nicely but would drop Altior for a larger stake yankee.
Click to expand...

I'd be very similar to this Edgt. Would leave out ALtior on price grounds but also leave out Delta Work as think topofthegame & Santini are very good opposition. Maybe I'm just blinded by the current markets but a Strong Trixie on Benie, Tiger Roll & Sir Eric @ 7/1 looks solid to me.

Ok Corral, Stand up & Fight and Paisly Park the 3 favs I'd be most against.
 
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Al Dancer.

Novice Betfair Hurdle winners generally run well, but the evidence suggests it probably takes more out of them than first appears. Might pay to side with one which has had a less exacting preparation.
 
I cant have tiger roll at evens.
The record of grand national winners winning another race is poor.only many clouds recently and look what happened to him.sadly.
So all credit to tiger roll on winning a hurdle race but it remains to be seen whether or not it catches up with him.
Someone said he could be another Red Rum and they could be right but at evens I would take him on.
 
I'd have Monalee fav over him, just. However, Road to Respect has shortened on the exchanges for the Ryanair in recent days and he would have an excellent chance. You'd have an RSA type three way battle then - hard to call a fav in that scenario.
 

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