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Wednesday 11th March - Day Two Cheltenham 2026 Bets, Betting, Race & Runner Analysis

chaumi

chaumi

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+107.6 carried over into yesterday.

A typically tough, exciting, disappointing, and emotional first day in equal measures.

No positive returns. But Search For Glory looked way too big for the Ultima and gave a few seconds of "he can't, can he" before the mistake, and the strong run from Lucinda's King Of Answers, both indicate the big winner is there to be had. Handstands was super disappointing, never turned up. Or is he just not as good as first believed?? Don't believe that.

So it was a -6 for Festival bets.

But then...what's this??...

#whoneedscheltenham
#it'sdowntoanawclass5yetagain

Couldn't split the chances of Woolridge and Toomuchforme in the 6.45 Southwell.

Woolridge coming over from Andy Oliver, I assume Andy didn't think he could do much with The Ridge in Ireland. Scott Dixon will do something here! Missed the break, but made up a fair amount without getting near the leaders. Another day.

Which left the way open for Toomuchforme to do the business at 33-1.

Later on, Wingstar ran an improved race to get 4th in the 40s.

All round it was -7, with a +33 thrown in.

Running total +133.6.

**************************

Into Weds...


Special Cadeau looks nice for the Grand Annual up at around the current 80-90s or so. Can (hopefully) see a big run coming.

Lucky Place looks most interesting for the BetMGM Cup at current prices, though I'd have liked to have seen nearer 33s and 40 upwards. There's still time. Won't be surprised to see Kateira float round, but neither will anybody else! Not least the Skeltons! They'll be expecting to take the County with Tellherthename, so this could be a middle leg of a big treble.

Four to watch in the Turners with an aim to be winning big handicaps next year include Soldier Reeves (thought several times he wants to go up in distance, this should be too tough, but maybe pace will draw him in to the first 5 or 6), Taurus Bay, Walks In June, and Zeus Power.

Elsewhere...

Forerunner 145 Happy Debatable whether the step down to 6f will work

Fallon/Mighty Strength 2.50 Happy Only a matter of time till Fallon does a last to first again, think today's race might be a little too tough.

Eternity Rose 2.58 Huntingdon Unlikely first time over hurdles, but one to watch.

Vingt Sept 3.49 Lyon

Roi Du Ciel 5.10 Lyon

Lillistar 5.30 Newc Will need to be well into the 30s, don't expect to get it.

Gorey Gold 5.40 Southwell Out of a hot Newcastle Class 2, could walk this.

Belling The Cat/Evelyns Garden 7.00 Newc

Queen For Adaay 7.15 South

Tomorrow Day/Golden Prosperity 8.00 Newc
 
Early catch up post since the first two races couldn't have gone an awful lot better...

Soldier Reeves (#howmanytimeshaveIsaidhereheneedstogoupindistance) was a daft 220 the win and 28 four places. Couldn't see him winning but had to risk it, and that 28 for 4 places was a no brainer.

A stunning run. Last all the way, the pace wasn't as strong as I'd hoped, but still he finished like the proverbial steamed train steamy steamy thing. 3 miles and he may have pissed it. Sadly that has well and truly shot the prices to pieces for a long long time. Zeus Power has shot his odds for ever, too.

And then Forerunner puts in a massive run in HK down to 6f, gets beat an inch at 33-1. Looked like he'd win it from 2f out to the last yard. That's ballsed up his odds for a while, too.

Can it get better yet??

We live in hope.
 
Lucky Place is sadly coming down in price for the next. Took 27 (could have had mid 30s earlier), now as low as 22.

The surprise for me is Bunting at 23. Maybe that's the Harry Cobden connection? You'd have to forgive the crap run in last year's race, but Bunting might have something. #mullinstriesagain #why

If Kateira goes further out than current 12s, there might be a temptation for a small interest.

Edit * Have decided not to let Give It To Me OJ run without extra pennies of weight, missed the bigger prices through indecision but 80 still looks high enough.
 
Damn and bollocks. Give It To Me OJ was tanking and had plenty left when brought to a standstill by a faller in front. This might go under the radar, though, if he didn't take a knock then may well turn out again in a near-future valuable handicap.

But normal service is resumed in the Valley with good old Fallon finally turning up again.

I'm hoping Famous Bridge might cause a (very big) surprise in the X country. Has it in him, I think...but not had the chance to prove it. A longshot in every sense, but hopefully will give a run.
 
chaumi said:
Lucky Place is sadly coming down in price for the next. Took 27 (could have had mid 30s earlier), now as low as 22.

The surprise for me is Bunting at 23. Maybe that's the Harry Cobden connection? You'd have to forgive the crap run in last year's race, but Bunting might have something. #mullinstriesagain #why

If Kateira goes further out than current 12s, there might be a temptation for a small interest.

Edit * Have decided not to let Give It To Me OJ run without extra pennies of weight, missed the bigger prices through indecision but 80 still looks high enough.
Click to expand...
Connections can afford to be very patient with Bunting with only one win from fifteen starts. Racing at the back hasn't been the place to be so far this week with the ground riding on the quick side. The winning time in this race was nearly a second faster than standard.

Ahead of last year's Cesarewitch Tony Bloom's racing manager said that Bunting was a soft ground horse, but they still ran and finished third of nineteen on good to firm ground. He will win a big race sometime though it would be a brave call to nominate which one a long way ahead. Worth a try over three miles over hurdles considering how he finished (9th) in today's race? He was one of many losers for me in this.
 
I am so chuffed at that I can hardly type. Couldn't have gone more to plan. When he was within 20 lengths of the leaders, the run was on big time. Softer ground, he would have been closer.

Well done, Evan #youbelieved #andyouwereright
 
Didn't think Martator could do it on a LH track in a race like this. 220 odd, one that got away :-)

Don't think Cadeau was well-positioned on the inside. One or two sticky jumps, maybe a little unsighted before getting hampered when no chance.
 
No surprises to see the Irish horses fill the first 5 in the bumper.

But I'm hoping Wilde's Legacy will prove best of the 'home' runners - 110 and around 9 first 5. Might creep in. Skelton's 2nd and 3rd string are no totally forlorn hope.
 

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