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Weight

chaumi

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 7, 2012
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1,493
Location
East Midlands
Not long been home from the morning walk. Been doing 2 (sometimes 3) miles early morning and 3+ at night since the start of the Scotland trip early last October. And the 3 at night for well over a year now. Pretty brisk-paced and - about two/3 times a week - wearing a 22lb weighted vest. Don't listen to anything, just thoughts. And thoughts this morning centred heavily on weight.

<Aside> It's getting lighter earlier. You can see it. Traditionally, the first time I'd really clock it was in Cheltenham week where you're watching the last race and thinking 'hooray, it's still light. Spring is here!' When you're out early, it's more noticeable. Spring is nearly here!</Aside>

So, I'd never taken too much notice of actual weight carried in races, much preferring to look at it from a relative standpoint. So what if xyz has 12 stone, if 80% of the rest of the field are carrying 11 8 upwards and those a stone further down are clearly (or likely) outclassed. So what if ABC beat DEF 10 lengths last time and there's a 10lb turnaround - they're horses ffs. Big, strong, and lots of other factors have a likely greater influence on outcomes. The ground, the track, the way the race is run, the actions of the others, the pace, the pace changes at different stages, something else getting in the way at any specific point, trainer form, the unknowns. form and fitness levels, etc etc etc

Clearly and obviously, weight is a factor. The laws of physics, force, gravity, whatever, will unquestionably reinforce that fact. And that's been illustrated (to me) by what happens when the vest comes off. And, partly, what's been happening with regular wearing.

When it comes off (the moment I step in the door, tbh), the first 10 mins it feels like floating. + there's little argument that the last mile of the walk is slightly slower than doing it with nothing. Especially the further you go. Notably, as you get used to it, starting out (while wearing it) becomes less and less noticeable. And when not wearing it, the first mile at least feels like nothing. Not surprising - general fitness level is increasing, posture is improving, etc. And, ofc, as time goes on, it's easier to carry it further and further without noticeably slowing.

So all that made me think 'what is a horse really feeling with different weights on their back'. Like I said, he or she is a horse. A big, powerful animal. Do they even ever register a different weight from race to race? And, following on from that, can a horse become conditioned to carrying heavier weights with less impact over time. And, following from that, do (some) trainers deliberately attempt to condition their horses to carry heavier weights on the gallops as part of a training regime?

The big question with all this is ' are there any (sensibly) usable angles that'll help find winners coming out of thinking this through?'

Perhaps not. And it might not be worth it, given all the other influential factors in a race.

So, while a lot of this might be rambling rubbish (to some), and nowhere near has fully covered all the relevant points, the note to self is to give it some more thought. On another walk, another day!
 
To the best of my knowledge the authorities have serious computer power constantly generating and analysing data relative to these issues and as the computer power and information quality has improved over the generations so they have tweaked the handicapping processes.

I imagine outfits like TPD, whose data is regularly show on-screen during races and analysed in ATR items, are trying to take things further in search of more nuanced impacts like acceleration, run-out speed, etc, to add to the now more regularly referenced data related to stride length and frequency.

But a lot of the old-school mantras / words of wisdom still pertain:

  • A fast horse can run a slow time but a slow horse can't run a fast time
  • Weight can slow a horse down but taking weight off can't make it run faster than its physical limit
  • 'A pound on the foot is a stone on the back'

etc, etc.
 
I don't know the first thing about training horses but I've heard of loads of different training methods in human athletes.

Some wear weighted socks in training, I imagine high/long jumpers will do likewise.

I remember a documentary showing Linford Christie running with a car or van tyre trailing from his waist.

I remember being asked to throw a medicine ball to improve my throw-in at football. (I never really got much better but a team mate who was quite slightly built could launch the ball from the touchline to beyond the penalty spot with seemingly little effort, and another pal used to practise his golf swing using two and three clubs at a time.

Each to their own, I suppose, and your weighted jacket sounds like a very useful way to go about your regime.
 
The weighted vest is more about weight loss and cardio improvements currently, most specifically in relation to blood glucose control. A subject I will unashamedly claim to know like the back of my hand. A fascinating subject, too, but more about that in another thread.
 
I'd say there are rules of thumb that people apply usually the 1lb per length at 2 mile ish but they can never be accurate. I've had plenty of discussions with Pawras down the years as I don't think he factors weight in at all to his betting on reasoning that a few pound won't make a difference to a half a ton animal. I found him not accounting for weight at all bizarre or basically the handicapping system wouldn't work at all would it ? But I did see his point.

The point of a pound doesn't make a difference you have to remember that it's not the first pound. Ask a bodybuilder to lift a pound weight he won't notice it yet he may be able to deadlift 500lbs yet not lift 501lbs.

In body building beginners would search for a 1 rep max and probably lift around 60% of that for sets.

As you've rightly pointed out horses are different in sizes and strengths. Lets say we tested them for 1 rep max and just piled weight on them until their legs gave way I wonder what the range would be highest to lowest ? But lets say one could bear 300 kg and another could bear 500kg obviously the stronger horse would feel less effect when carrying the 75kg topweight in a race than the other. More than this though how do you weigh up live load, to whats in the saddle cloth ? Anyone who knows anything about lifting knows live loads and dead weight are not the same. The imponderables are endless and as such any rule of thumb can never be accurate but it my be worth forming your own.

However that said weight should not be ignored. The bet I put up on Wilful was based on 19lb weight shift for a length or so and still being double the price of the horse that finished in front of it. It's never as simple as that as lengths beaten often come down to pace of race, conditions, and how the horses finished etc, again imponderables a plenty. The best you can do is use a bit of common sense consider as many things as you like and take an overall view.

But weight does count, it breaks camels backs and stops trains to say it's not worth consideration would be wrong.
 
Over the years I’ve bounced between weight matters most and weight matters a bit. After all, what difference can a couple of lbs make to a 1000lb beast? Not much, but then “not much” adds up over time and distance.

Maybe “not much” is better exampled by speed. 0.1mph is not much, but a horse travelling at 30.1mph would be 176yds in front of one travelling at 30mph after an hour. After 6mins the slower one would have covered 3m with the faster 17.6 yds (6/7lengths) in front.
 
Trainers will often observe when speaking about one of their runners in a handicap that it has ‘a nice racing weight’. A lot of horses aren’t especially big and being at the lower end of the weights for a particular race can really help them, especially in tough conditions.
 
Over the years I’ve bounced between weight matters most and weight matters a bit. After all, what difference can a couple of lbs make to a 1000lb beast? Not much, but then “not much” adds up over time and distance.

Yes. Try holding a can of beans or a bag of sugar at arm's length. You'll be fine for a wee while but before too long that can or bag will feel incredibly heavy. There must be an element of that in play as horses reach the end of their stamina reserves.

Maybe “not much” is better exampled by speed. 0.1mph is not much, but a horse travelling at 30.1mph would be 176yds in front of one travelling at 30mph after an hour. After 6mins the slower one would have covered 3m with the faster 17.6 yds (6/7lengths) in front.

This is not unlike the British Cycling's hugely successful 'aggregation of marginal gains' from a couple of decades ago. If a modification to the design of the helmet gained a rider 0.1 mph and the outfits the same, and the cycle likewise then those three 0.1mph added equated to a substantial distance over the course of a race.

There was an item recently, might have been on here or in one of the papers, explaining how at five furlongs a second is worth about six lengths - most on here will know that, obviously - so a tiny amount of time like 0.16 of a second, about as long as it takes to blink, is about 10 feet at racing speed.

Such are the fine margins on which legends can be made or broken.

It's one of the fascinating elements of the study of form that makes it such a stimulating mental exercise for me.

And you've all witnessed how mental some of my selections can be.
 
I did lot of data mining on this once over, plus testing ratings with and without weight adjustments, and quite logically it indicated that it matters most at bigger distances at heavier going. But at shorter distances at good going it was all bit meh most of the time. It was a long long time ago so it would probably be worth a revisit some time.

Everyone is entitled to their own view on this but I still stand by that a few pounds makes f all difference imo because it's just noise that gets lost in how the race plays out re such as good and bad positioning & jockey skill.
If the horses were going down fixed lanes like human runners where everyone behaved nice I'd worry about it more.
I think class and whether a horse is truly fit or not is a bigger thing, I think trainers play the hcaps and try to get their horses underestimated so they run against lower class horses.

My rule of thumb where I will take it into account is if the runners are very very comparable otherwise but there's >= 8 lb weight difference
 
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We established a couple of decades ago on one of this forum's antecedents that weight, in fact, doesn't matter.

Please close this debate down now.

Rgds

Honest Tom.
 
Fist used to say the same.

It does intrigue me why so many horses, better off at the weights, fail to turn around the form.

The older I get, the less it matters. 😁
 
Phil W was another stirrer-upper in the 'does weight matter?' debate.

I miss Honest Tom's masonic index as it relates to Scottish football. He'd be having a field day since VAR came in.

Not too long ago I read an analysis of refereeing decisions up here, written by a data analyst. He crunched an incredible number of details (set within the context of xG, passing stats, interceptions, etc, the works, effectively) and concluded that one team in Scotland benefitted so much from refereeing decisions over the course of the study period - several seasons - that it was best described as "a pattern of assistance".

That one team was Rangers.

Honest Tom was (as we all knew up here) right all along.
 
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