Welsh National

[Ian_Davies]

Callum Pritchard has been booked for Iwilldoit in the Welsh National on Friday.

It's the perfect race to exploit this talented ex-Point jockey's 7lb claim, which is worth nine lengths over 3m6f110yds according to the reliable BHA scale.

The horse is 11, rising 12, but is relatively lightly raced - only had 23 races its entire life.

It's run well first time out twice in recent years.

It runs off 147, having won the race by 9l off 140 two years ago and he was third in it off 153 last year behind easy winner Nassalam.

The Handicapper has given him a chance by dropping him 6lb since and Pritchard takes off another 7lb.

He's 14/1 best.

 

[Outsider]

I've done your own story 22/1 .but i agree with you and probably i will do it.

 

[Tanlic]

Monbeg Genius is a class apart from most of these. The owners have decided Nick Schofield keeps the ride. If he's on a going day he is very hard to oppose

 

[Desijo]

Callum Pritchard has been booked for Iwilldoit in the Welsh National on Friday.

It's the perfect race to exploit this talented ex-Point jockey's 7lb claim, which is worth nine lengths over 3m6f110yds according to the reliable BHA scale.

The horse is 11, rising 12, but is relatively lightly raced - only had 23 races its entire life.

It's run well first time out twice in recent years.

It runs off 147, having won the race by 9l off 140 two years ago and he was third in it off 153 last year behind easy winner Nassalam.

The Handicapper has given him a chance by dropping him 6lb since and Pritchard takes off another 7lb.

He's 14/1 best.

My two for the race are Iwilldoit at around 12/1 and the two amigos at around 40/1.
Iwilldoit has a big chance and the two amigos won this race 2 years ago
Good luck and a happy Christmas to you all.

 

[Danny]

Agree with Ians assessment of Iwilldoitschances amd sure to run a race of some sort but have to say I like the look of Sam Thomas other runner for Dai. Jubilee express fine at the trip and conditions and completley unexposed may well dot up. Lot of love for Galia also but no sort of value in the price at all and would much rather take a chance on the Jube.

 

[Robicheaux]

Agree with Ian, regarding Iwilldoit, sure to run well.
I like Atlanta Brave. Ran well in the Mandarin over Christmas last year.
Big chance on that run. 25/1.

 

[Beef or Salmon]

Agree with Ian, regarding Iwilldoit, sure to run well.
I like Atlanta Brave. Ran well in the Mandarin over Christmas last year.
Big chance on that run. 25/1.

Agree on Atlanta Brave, took 33s earlier in the week. Won here before, although only a rubbish maiden hurdle, trainer has a good record here and in this race and is unexposed.

 

[Outsider]

I've joined you both but only 20/1

 

[Desert Orchid]

The betting for this race is an absolute scandal.

Strip out the two rags and the best price about the remaining 14 is only 18/1.

 

[Ian_Davies]

At best odds, the book is 119%, less than 1.2% a runner in this field of 16.

The bookie win odds are compressed because they're offering extra places and have to be mindful of the over-round in their place book.

On Betfair Exchange win only book, the margin is below 104% and it's currently 8/1 (before commission) the field.

As someone who has worked in the betting industry and been (and still is) a punter, I see both sides and I don't see anything scandalous tbh.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I'm just used to trying to sniff out 33/1 shots in a race of this nature!

Anyroads, here are my figures and thoughts. Prices are as they were earlier this morning:

Horse​	OR​	MON​ 162​	Notes​	RPR​	BO​
Monbeg Genius​	144 ​	166​	?​	156 ​	6/1​
Iron Bridge​	136 ​	166​	p​	156 ​	9/1​
Galia Des Liteaux​	142 ​	165​	p nov​	160 ​	13/2​
Where It All Began​	134 ​	165​	+p​	158 ​	10/1​
Evies Vladimir​	123 ​	162​	? p? nov​	147 ​	12/1​
Stuzzikini​	140 ​	159​	p nov1​	149 ​	14/1​
Atlanta Brave​	123 ​	159​	p v​	159 ​	12/1​
Iwilldoit​	147 ​	158​	[164]​	151 ​	14/1​
Your Own Story​	128 ​	158​	p?​	154 ​	16/1​
The Newest One​	127 ​	158​	p​	154 ​	16/1​
Fontaine Collonges​	148 ​	156​	v​	156 ​	12/1​
Jubilee Express​	126 ​	156​	p nov​	153 ​	17/2​
Val Dancer​	126 ​	156​	p​	154 ​	12/1​
Amateur​	125 ​	156​	?​	156 ​	125/1​
No Hubs No Hoobs​	124 ​	155​	+p v​	153 ​	18/1​
Classic Concorde​	118 ​	-​		- ​	100/1​

The O’Neills have a strong hand and I’d go with Iron Bridge as the more likely on jockey bookings. It’s a very good renewal given how many are up to winning a race of this nature off their current marks. I’ll always favour second-season novices so I’m looking at Galia Des Liteaux, Evies Vladimir, Stuzzikini - a first-season novice – and Jubilee Express. Iwilldoit is worth keeping onside given how impressive the jockey was on their Badger Beer winner but Johnston is the stable jockey and it looks like Jubilee Express has been targeting this all season so he’s the main bet. He could be 10lbs better than his mark into this second season over fences and is a proven stayer.

 

[yorick]

I’m all Eire and breeding with this race. Where It All Began ooks good on breeding, first time pieces.
Evie’s Vladimir has the breeding that would see him stay forever. This and the OR make it a real danger, lurking at the foot of the weights.
That said, I’m not sure this is one of my luckiest races. Don’t think I’ve g go pound the winner very often in all my punting years.

 

[Truncheon]

This is getting called off isn't it?

 

[viking]

Can’t see it going ahead fog getting worse

Correction racing goes ahead

 

[Beef or Salmon]

Just got the go ahead, and will continue to monitor.