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What are you backing Today? Part 2

A couple of semi tasty EW bets, followed by a couple of die rolls around the doughnut.

YORK 4:25 KING CHAOS 40/1 EW Medium Stakes
Potentially slightly well in, even more so if can break OK. Drawn wide but will race in rear anyway. Forecast to be rank outsider. Sections looked OK at Catt LTO over 7F. Short 1M here, long run in should help. Might not want it firming up too much though. Yard looking for first win at York after 20 previous attempts, but that's not overly concerning.
Empire Of Light is rated a touch high, might need the race too, but could be in the places if ready (also forecast as an outsider).

WINDSOR 8:15 SOLDIERS STAR 16/1 EW Medium Stakes
About 2lb short of mark, but is dropping back to 6F and that 'could' make up the difference. The coast looks clear for tracking over to lead on rail. If can manage to steady the pace a little (just briefly mid race), may not be caught at this CD. Jockey course stats good. Yard/Jock stats OK too. Has shown a gutsy attitude previously and has plenty of speed.

CHESTER 3:15 FAR ABOVE THE LAW 10/1 EW Small Stakes
CP's seem to have done the trick. Stalls 13,15,16,17 and 18 all filled the last 5 spots LTO. Was drawn 14 in that race and was the only one to make ground on the prominent runners from the near side. Territorial Knight gave the form a boost at Donc on Wednesday (as did Lesley's Boy to some extent on Thursday). Is drawn in stall 8 today, but not an impossible task.

CHESTER 5:30 NARMAR 17/2 EW Small Stakes
CP's seem to have been beneficial. Looks slightly well in and the way it RO LTO at Windsor suggests the step up in trip may not be an issue, but still a risky unknown factor. Does need to break better, but can drop in behind the 3 to it's left and hold a rail position, then will need a clear passage (if it stays). Will save ground on inner, while the 5 to it's outer may struggle for early position, or use a bit too much energy sorting themselves out.

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Had thought about the below one too, but decided against it. Had another 4 from notebook running, but didn't take long to find reasons not to bother with them. Just thought I'd highlight the Jockey course stats as a matter of a caution, else otherwise looks quite worthy of an EW at the odds. I came close initially.

YORK 2:00 SERGEANT WILKO 18/1 EW?
Ran a cracker from the front at Haydock in May. Probably ran to 95 in that race. Might be a little more suited to York. Stall 22?
Tom Eaves course stats are a huge negative. He rides younger horses better there (2yo's 7 - 8% / 3yo's 5 - 6% / 4yo+ 2 - 3%). The higher percentages were rides restricted to last 5 years. The lower percentages were from all time. They're not from small samples either. Too much of a negative.
 
Not the most obvious of selections but I have had a few ££ EW on Faberi @80/1 3.25 Gowran Park, green as grass on her only start last year in a contest won by this year's leading filly and dual Oaks winner Minnie Hauk - she did however hint at a little ability. Faberi showed little on her return last month finishing a well beaten tenth at Navan. She should strip fitter for that outing, and the return to a mile will hopefully be in her favour after taking a keen hold over ten furlongs last time. The application of a hood offers some hope and I wouldn't be surprised if she ran better than her odds suggest, an unlikely winner but with some improvement can hopefully push for minor honours.
 


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