What are you backing Today? Part 2

Ludlow 3.45
Can You Call has dropped to a handy mark following poor runs in October and November but his effort at foggy Chepstow behind the smart Lowry’s Bar was a bit more like it. 4/1 seems like a decent price with the trainer back in form
 
viking said:
Ludlow 3.45
Can You Call has dropped to a handy mark following poor runs in October and November but his effort at foggy Chepstow behind the smart Lowry’s Bar was a bit more like it. 4/1 seems like a decent price with the trainer back in form
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Bugger! Possibly hit the front too soon
 
Saturday, Warwick 2.05 - Rubaud 4/1 - L’Eau Du Sud has picked up three easy races so far along with valuable experience whereas Rubaud has fallen in his only attempt at fences but he’s been given plenty of time to get over it and he was a stone better than L’Eau Du Sud over hurdles. Sir Gino and Ballyburn took him out of his comfort zone on his debut which was a baptism of fire for him but they’d almost certainly have taken L’EDS out of his too. Rubaud might just be too high in the handicap for that to be a route for him right now so I’m wondering if there is a plan afoot to get him into the likes of the Mackeson and Massey-Ferguson off 5lbs lower, although the yard does like to target the Ayr National meeting. Still, I reckon the prices are wrong so a modest win bet on Rubaud will do me.
 
Saturday, Newbury 2.25 - Sam Brown 16/1, 3 places - I have doubts about a lot of this field. The race might fall into the lap of Bravemansgame but it might just fall apart altogether, in which case any of the others could win. I’m going to chance Sam Brown each-way and hope for the best. He went close in the veterans’ final recently and the front two were a long way clear. He's third top on my ratings and on RPRs.

Edit - the 16/1 is only available with Hills but they won't let me bet ew and limit my stake so I've had to settle for 14/1 elsewhere.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Newbury 2.25 - Sam Brown 16/1, 3 places - I have doubts about a lot of this field. The race might fall into the lap of Bravemansgame but it might just fall apart altogether, in which case any of the others could win. I’m going to chance Sam Brown each-way and hope for the best. He went close in the veterans’ final recently and the front two were a long way clear. He's third top on my ratings and on RPRs.

Edit - the 16/1 is only available with Hills but they won't let me bet ew and limit my stake so I've had to settle for 14/1
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A very tricky looking race.
You can find reasons why most of these won't win ,but Sam Brown is likely to run his race which cannot be said about some in this field.
Best of luck.
 
Kruger Park 1.50 Newbury tomorrow 8/1 Bet365.
This is my idea of the best each way bet tomorrow.
Has a very consistent record and the form of his 3rd at Uttoxeter last time out is very strong.
 
3.25 Kempton
Flegmatik will be hard to beat if putting his best for forward but he seems plenty short enough for one that probably wants 3m these days. Instead I’ve had an each way go on Lounge Lizard (10/1 4 places) who’s back down to his last winning mark which also came on a flat RH track

Apologies for posting so close to the off
 
viking said:
3.25 Kempton
Flegmatik will be hard to beat if putting his best for forward but he seems plenty short enough for one that probably wants 3m these days. Instead I’ve had an each way go on Lounge Lizard (10/1 4 places) who’s back down to his last winning mark which also came on a flat RH track

Apologies for posting so close to the off
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I don't visit this thread much midweek so I'm glad I missed this otherwise I might have been tempted.

I've been saying all season that I think Flegmatik's objective is the big race here later this month. The weights don't come out until this midweek so losing again today will get his mark down another couple of pounds.

There is no way I will not back this horse in this race.
 
viking said:
3.25 Kempton
Flegmatik will be hard to beat if putting his best for forward but he seems plenty short enough for one that probably wants 3m these days. Instead I’ve had an each way go on Lounge Lizard (10/1 4 places) who’s back down to his last winning mark which also came on a flat RH track

Apologies for posting so close to the off
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LL’s big target will be the Topham. He’s weighted to get into that with about 10-5 or thereabouts and I thought they might frame him here to make sure he gets in.
After he (just) won at Huntingdon, Daly said the course didn’t suit.

His jumping wasn’t its usual brilliant self yesterday and the course may not have been suitable.
I think they may try to get his rating up before the Topham.
 
yorick said:
LL’s big target will be the Topham. He’s weighted to get into that with about 10-5 or thereabouts and I thought they might frame him here to make sure he gets in.
After he (just) won at Huntingdon, Daly said the course didn’t suit.

His jumping wasn’t its usual brilliant self yesterday and the course may not have been suitable.
I think they may try to get his rating up before the Topham.
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Crebilly was beaten 44 lengths in this race yesterday. If the main target is the Festival Plate Handicap over two and a half miles where he finished second last year off 140 they've done a good job in ensuring that the handicap rating is no higher this time around. Previous two runs have been the two mile handicap chase at Windsor won by Matata with a season-opener over hurdles at Chepstow. Might be a spring horse like Langer Dan.
 
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