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What are you backing Today? Part 2

Euronymous said:
Raph/Ralph is double handed in the 5.35 at Salisbury and I like Invincible Duke back on turf at around 13/2. He was poor last time behind Gallant on the AW but his run before that at Goodwood was promising and he's a decent price esp at 365 who are still offering three places (seven run)
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Jack Dace's claim takes it to virtually bottom weight and it's his only ride!
 
Both of yesterdays picks well beaten but the 20:27 was such a fine spectacle I didn't mind parting with the stake!

Hoping for better luck today at Worcester with 2.33 Pride of Paris 16/1 and 5.05 Robber's Bridge 9/2
 
NH_Andy said:
Both of yesterdays picks well beaten but the 20:27 was such a fine spectacle I didn't mind parting with the stake!

Hoping for better luck today at Worcester with 2.33 Pride of Paris 16/1 and 5.05 Robber's Bridge 9/2
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Good card at Worcester today Andy.good luck.
 
A couple I like today:

Two Tribes - 4.10 Newm 3/1 win

I like the look of his run at York behind Rousing Encore, a race which is looking quite decent, I think. The question here is the trip; will he get the 7f? I'm paying find out. That race previously mentioned was run at a good pace and the late headway gives me a reason to be optimistic on that score.

Chillhi - 5.20 Newm 5/2 Win

The third run for James Owen and I think this one should be a much shorter price. To me, it's between two horses: Chillhi looks to have an ideal opportunity in a weak field. The first-time visor will improve chances, too, one hopes. The current 5/2 looks just too big. The other horse is top weight Christian Bruce, for Alan King; he could be a dark one. It's his first handicap and he's upped in trip. The breeding might support that decision and King knows what a stayer looks like, doesn't he.

I'm not sure I'd want to be on two single bets here but I will have a pop at a R/Fcst and see how we go.

A win double, too.
 
I've also got a fancy in the 3.00 Priapos. Beckett 3yo, ran well at Ascot the time before last maybe stamina gave out just near the end. He ran at Goodwood back over 5 after this, completely unsuitable test, this is more like it on an easier track than Ascot. Tough race, competitive, but I'm happy with 7s for 4 places with Denise.

Small bet also on Midnight Tango in the listed fillies race. Would prefer her over 7 but she was a decent price last night (13/2)
 
I've gone in early on one on Saturday, 3.45 Newcastle - Rare Change 4/1.

He's making a fairly quick reappearance after winning on Sunday at Pontefract but he spreadeagled the field in a smart time without being asked too many questions so hopefully the jockey's kindness will be rewarded. I always think you can't have an easy race in a smart time but there's a good chance he'll go up a double-digit figure for the win when the new ratings come out on Tuesday and he only carries a 6lbs penalty here, and he needs to get into the high 90s (89 here under the penalty) to have any chance of getting into something like the Stewards' Cup, which might be where he belongs.

He might bounce, this might be all about putting him back under the radar, I don't know, but if he's there to win and is over that race he shouldn't be any more than 2/1 and probably closer to 6/4.
 
Like three horses all running in unfamiliar company at Cartmel tomorrow.

3.08 Shantou Sunset 11/1 (monitor exchanges)
Hard to make a case on recent form but has been 2 years since she ran in class 5 company. On that occasion she following up a win with a close 3rd at a similar weight. Could drift out to a very big price and worth a punt on that basis.

3.43 Equus Dancer 6/1 (only if all 7 run)
The last 3 times he's dropped into a class 4 he's won. Hasn't shown anything at 3m to date but James Bowen has not finished outside the places in his last 4 rides so given the right run the veteran could be in contention again.

4.18 Sean Og 15/2
Another horse who is dropping into a class 5 for only a second time having only found 1 too good on both previous occasions. Back over his preferred trip he shouldn't be anywhere near 15/2 for this.

Just seen there are two whole NH meetings on Sunday! What a time to be alive.
 
NH_Andy said:
Like three horses all running in unfamiliar company at Cartmel tomorrow.

3.08 Shantou Sunset 11/1 (monitor exchanges)
Hard to make a case on recent form but has been 2 years since she ran in class 5 company. On that occasion she following up a win with a close 3rd at a similar weight. Could drift out to a very big price and worth a punt on that basis.

3.43 Equus Dancer 6/1 (only if all 7 run)
The last 3 times he's dropped into a class 4 he's won. Hasn't shown anything at 3m to date but James Bowen has not finished outside the places in his last 4 rides so given the right run the veteran could be in contention again.

4.18 Sean Og 15/2
Another horse who is dropping into a class 5 for only a second time having only found 1 too good on both previous occasions. Back over his preferred trip he shouldn't be anywhere near 15/2 for this.

Just seen there are two whole NH meetings on Sunday! What a time to be alive.
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GL Andy, I love Cartmel
 
yorick said:
A couple I like today:

Two Tribes - 4.10 Newm 3/1 win

I like the look of his run at York behind Rousing Encore, a race which is looking quite decent, I think. The question here is the trip; will he get the 7f? I'm paying find out. That race previously mentioned was run at a good pace and the late headway gives me a reason to be optimistic on that score.

Chillhi - 5.20 Newm 5/2 Win

The third run for James Owen and I think this one should be a much shorter price. To me, it's between two horses: Chillhi looks to have an ideal opportunity in a weak field. The first-time visor will improve chances, too, one hopes. The current 5/2 looks just too big. The other horse is top weight Christian Bruce, for Alan King; he could be a dark one. It's his first handicap and he's upped in trip. The breeding might support that decision and King knows what a stayer looks like, doesn't he.

I'm not sure I'd want to be on two single bets here but I will have a pop at a R/Fcst and see how we go.

A win double, too.
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Hmmm.

Not my day, then.

Way off.
 
NH_Andy said:
Like three horses all running in unfamiliar company at Cartmel tomorrow.

3.08 Shantou Sunset 11/1 (monitor exchanges)
Hard to make a case on recent form but has been 2 years since she ran in class 5 company. On that occasion she following up a win with a close 3rd at a similar weight. Could drift out to a very big price and worth a punt on that basis.

3.43 Equus Dancer 6/1 (only if all 7 run)
The last 3 times he's dropped into a class 4 he's won. Hasn't shown anything at 3m to date but James Bowen has not finished outside the places in his last 4 rides so given the right run the veteran could be in contention again.

4.18 Sean Og 15/2
Another horse who is dropping into a class 5 for only a second time having only found 1 too good on both previous occasions. Back over his preferred trip he shouldn't be anywhere near 15/2 for this.

Just seen there are two whole NH meetings on Sunday! What a time to be alive.
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My three fancies, and only fancies, are:

3.43 Bamprionsa
4.18 Sean Og
4.55 Wild Nephin.

Good luck Andy.
 
I've backed a load tomorrow.
2 I like at bigger prices are
Stanage 155y I took 16s and before I could do some multiples it went to 12s. Xx
Territorial Knight 450y. 12/1. Ran on well last time at York. 3rd

Heathen 415y 3/1. never won on turf and is much lower than its a/w mark.but ran well last turf run.
my Nap of the day.
others ive done
Pocklington 140. Took12s a/p. 2nd
Squealer 300y. 1st
Alzahir 305c Better drawn than last time. 1st
Riot 800D 13/2 won the race last year.

Churchella 240 nc. 50/1 Now about 33s.

My 3 for the Pitmans Derby
Zanndabad 16/1 a/p see other thread
Manxman 28 betfair exchange win only and 20s ew
Spirit Mixer 25/1 See other thread..... 1st

Good luck everyone.
 
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Outsider said:
I've backed a load tomorrow.
2 I like at bigger prices are
Stanage 155y I took 16s and before I could do some multiples it went to 12s.
Territorial Knight 450y. 12/1. Ran on well last time at York.

Heathen 415y 3/1. never won on turf and is much lower than its a/w mark.but ran well last turf run.
my Nap of the day.
others ive done
Pocklington 140. Took12s a/p
Squealer 300y
Alzahir 305c Better drawn than last time
Riot 800D 13/2 won the race last year.

Churchella 240 nc. 50/1 Now about 33s.

My 3 for the Pitmans Derby
Zanndabad 16/1 a/p see other thread
Manxman 28 betfair exchange win only and 20s ew
Spirit Mixer 25/1 See other thread

Good luck everyone.
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I removed Riot from my notbook the other day so must have a sound chance today. :)
Luckily, was just about to give up on Beyond Borders yesterday, but gave it one last chance due to the class drop.
Well done to the NH backers yesterday. I don't follow the jumps at all, so tend to ignore those posts. Even the abrreviated course names I have to think about.

Three for me today.

NEWC 1:40 SERGEANT WILKO 12/1 EW
YORK 4:50 LESLEY'S BOY 25/1 EW
DONC 5:50 ANOTHER INVESTMENT 16/1 EW

3 X EW Singles
1 X EW Treble
 

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