What are you backing Today?

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Danny said:
I know it wasn't directed at me but Betfred are 25/1 5 places about Munaaser and I've managed to get about £94 ew at that price.Haven't got time to do a write up but he should be well suited by the race as he was 2nd in the Silver version last year.You might want to take a look at a few replays York (He pulled very hard off a slow pace didn't quite see out an extended 10f)and Goodwood (Caught out the back slow pace)reasonable excuses for defeats both times.Have a look at how well his Sandown race has worked out and respective handicap marks.Basem now off 110.
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I've had an even bigger plunge on another one in this race.Munaaser has been shortened up into about 16's ,14's in places.My one worry with him is although I think he's well handicapped and is sure to travel well into the race I'm not quite sure he'll see the trip of 9f right out and if he gets into a battle in the last few yards I'm not sure he's the most hardy of sorts.

Halation 20/1 generally but 5 places with 365 I've laid out £100e/w and £65 win on the machine at 27.07. These are fairly large bets for myself especially ante post which is not something I'm normally comfortable with but having been a bit out of touch with the form over the last month or so I thought I'd try a different approach.

Why Halation then ? Well he was firstly involved beaten a couple of lengths 4th behind Basem in the same race as I picked up Munaaser from and is equally as well treated and would like Munaaser have every right to reverse with Basem on revised terms.This was his second try in headgear and he raced quite keenly, about 1f out he looked well held but in the last 150 yards he really rallied again suggesting a step up in trip would bring about an even better performance.This was over a mile and he was rated 96.

He then went from there to the Shergar cup meeting picking up a win.This time they left the headgear off and he settled much better at the back of the field running on strongly to take victory in the dying strides from Earth Drummer.The strange thing about this is he was raised only 2lb to a mark of 98.Earth Drummer raced in the same race as Munaaser next time out over the extended 10f at York and ran a cracker but like Munaaser didn't really see out the trip.The 4th from the Ascot race Alfred Hutchinson (a decent yard stick) nto ran 2nd to Chil the kite in a 52k handicap at York although having said this I would accept that he is probably a bit better horse on the Knavesmire.The 5th from the Ascot Race,Nakuti went on to win a fillies listed race next time up from a 1lb lower mark than what she faced Halation from.Obviously there can be all sorts of reasons for these improved performances but the main point being that a 2lb rise for beating them all seems incredibly lenient.This was also over a mile and once again and I'd suggest that on top of the rise being lenient Halation I feel will be even better over 9f.

He has tried 9f earlier in the season in fact over the Cambridgeshire course and distance and finished a decent second off a mark of 94.This on its own might seem not good enough as 2nd off 94 doesn't equal winning a Cambridgeshire off 98.This is until you realise the winner was Balty Boys off a mark of 102.Given his subsequent efforts 2 massive runs at Ascot off a mark of 108 one when drawn completely the wrong side over a mile and the only horse from that side to land a blow.The other over an inadequate 7f staying on like a train to finish 2nd to Heavens guest.He went into Saturdays race at Haydock rated 112 on a course and with a small field that shouldn't have suited him he won with a degree of comfort.I'd accept that SDS got it right tactically and a few of the other Jockey's not so much but still I dare say he'll go up a couple pounds for the victory and I'm sure when he does get his optimum conditions and things drop right for him he's capable of even more.All this suggests to me that Halation had little chance when him bumped into him and that second certainly has a better look about it.

Overall I think Halation has improved through the season but for one reason or another the handicapper has been very lenient.I certainly think he's a better horse than when he bumped into Balty Boys back in the spring and I feel that back at this trip in a few weeks time he should show it.

I don't know whether you guys would have preferred me to open up a Cambridgeshire thread for this so my apologies if that's the case but I thought seen as I'd put Munaaser up on here when someone asked about the race I thought I'd keep my thoughts together on the same thread.In future I'll try and keep things in the right place.

Best of luck.
 
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No problem. I know the Cambridgeshire is a bit of a difficult one to solve especially a few weeks out from the race but hopefully they'll both make the line up it seems the obvious target for both horses and hopefully both give a good account of themselves.I've noticed Earth drummer is being fairly well punted for it I can't possibly see him reversing Ascot form with Halation but that money is probably just based on the O Meara factor which is understandable.
 
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Yeah nice one Danny , I mentioned Halation a while back on this thread, no surprise to me if he went well.

Merry Me is definately one I'm having a couple of quid on at 40/1 e/w.
Got form with group winners, including Vadamos last time.
Finishing 5 lengths off Vadamos makes Merry Me leniently handicapped now off 97, imo.
Andrew Balding says the big handicap at Ascot on Champions Day is her main target, so there may be some slight doubt whether she'll take in the Cambrideshire. Those odds of 40/1 offset the risk of a small wager though.
 
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Two trackers in th same race!! What to do?

Hearbreak Hero and Akeem Champion both contest the 4.10 at Donny. The former has a tendancy to miss the break, which he did last time out at Goodwood. He managed to come through to challenge but used up all his energy in doing so and faded. At 7/1 it's worth taking the chance he can get on terms earlier today, especially in a smaller field and a likelier slower pace. Akeem Champion went from the outside to the inside and back to the outside of his 10 runner field last time out on the July Course and rates a fair bit better than his winning margin. Took 3s last night mainly as cover.
 
14:40 Uttoxeter
21124P- Parish Business (IRE)

Emma Lavelle sends out Parish Business for this beginners chase and I feel he should be good enough to beat his opposition today.

Came 2nd at Ascot in November (beaten 3l) to Fletchers Flyer, who went on to win nto, with the 3rd placed horse Hunt Ball who won yesterday (won last three on the spin).

His next outing was in the Albert Bartlett G2 race (4th), with the 2nd, 3rd and 5th going on to win. This was followed up when he ran in the Sefton Novice Hurdle G1 at Aintree (PU). So we know he has been running in good company, whereas todays race is a c4.

The trip should not pose a problem as over 24f as he won a c3 race at Aintree last year. The going should be fine as his best runs have been good going.

Here's what Emma said about him late last year " Parish Business has also had a very good season to this point having started off on a mark of 108 and five runs later is 30 pounds higher. The best of him wont be seen until he goes chasing but he's proving himself to be a very decent hurdler and an exciting horse"

Currenlty 13/8 with WH I feel he is worth a small bet.

Would appreciate your thoughts chaps
 
First past the post, just a shame that the jockey is still walking back to the jockeys room
 
I can't believe the two rogues I've been waiting to come in for a final big win are both in the same race - Confessional and Ancient Cross at Donny. I reckon these are going to crop up soon but Confessional has dropped so much in the weights it has got to have a decent chance of getting that final win today. 7lb lower than a 2 length third in May, 6lb lower than 1 3/4 length second in June.

Probably should just leave it but givne the amount of times I've backed it I'd be heartbroken to see it come in today.
 
Mistrusting (Sceptre) travelled all over a decent field at York, then hung right and left after hitting the front. Held up for a later challenge today, she should prove a piece better than her current rating allows.
 
Going against you there, Fadhaayil clearly has the best form on offer in the race. I thought 7/2 was about right when I looked yesterday evening and Ladbrokes went 5/1 a bit earlier with very good each way terms. If she runs to form I can't see how four fillies finish in front of her.
 
Goes to show just how tricky this race is then as I can't let last year's comfortable winner Kiyoshi go unbacked at 10/1.

She seems to have been brought to the boil similarly to last year and her WFA concession to the favourite has reduced by 3lb since she had that one behind at Goodwood only just over a month ago.
 
Euronymous said:
Going against you there, Fadhaayil clearly has the best form on offer in the race. I thought 7/2 was about right when I looked yesterday evening and Ladbrokes went 5/1 a bit earlier with very good each way terms. If she runs to form I can't see how four fillies finish in front of her.
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Tbh, I've backed mine ew 4 places, too.
Fadhayyil is ultimately seen as a miler, and they're probably looking to nick this because of the Hills' connection. Kiyoshi just hasn't seemed the same horse this term, and older horses have a poor record in the race anyway.
Hoping for a fair race, and may the best horse win.:cool:
 
Kiyoshi's run this term have been better than they were last year prior to winning this race Reet. Completely agree re the age thing though.
 
Fadhayyil looked badly hampered by the winner but probably wouldn't have got past anyway IMO


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viking said:
Fadhayyil looked badly hampered by the winner but probably wouldn't have got past anyway IMO


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Aye, you'd still have to suspect she'd be better over 1m, though.

Ornate (Childers) was one of a raft of horses that disappointed on the loose York ground, and will hopefully redress the balance today.
 
Just a quick thought Paddy power go 11/2 Gleneagles.

If he runs is he an 11/2 shot ?

If he doesn't run get your money back anyway.

Where's the harm in that ?
 
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Out of the mainstream at Bath today and these were having market support around 10 a.m., any going shorter could be worth a look:
2.00 Emotionless 1.87, Ibn Malik 4.7
2.35 Highland Acclaim 12.5, Suzi's Connoisseur 14, Bogart 14.5
3.10 Home Of The Brave 6.8, Lighning Moon 10, Breton Rock 15
3.45 Bondi Beach 3.15
4.20 Captain Morley 3.6
4.55 Peril 5.9, Man Of Harlech 6, Ayaar 7.8, Bronze Angel 12.5
5.30 Mohmaar 4.5, Danehill Kodiac 6.8
 
Home Of The Brave (Park Stakes) ran the race of his life latest, and the form is absolutely solid, imo. Won't mind any cut, and 11/2 looks generous against questionable opposition.
 
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