York Day 1

Hes not adverse to a few sarcastic comments himself though is he Andrew?

Surely at the current odds, there has to be more than a 50% doubt about NA running?
 
Sarcastic, yes, but i think it's best to judge everything on it's own merits. Fwiw, I think the journalists behaviour post Derby was much, much worse than what Bolger did.
 
If your trying to figure out NA's next move you need to take into account Bolgers form too. The Derby shenanigans was not a one off.

All for giving people a second chance, but not third and fourth chances....
 
If he`s ready to run and the ground stays on the easy side he`d be foolish not to run him imo. The Irish Champion could be a hotter race and it`s that much closer to the Arc.
 
If he runs, and he's available ar 9/2 or 5/1, ranks as the each way bet of the season.

I wonder why it is that people don't realise how exceptional this horse has been to date.
 
Andrew Hurley said:
I wonder why it is that people don't realise how exceptional this horse has been to date.
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Who knows? Suits us value hunters down to the ground. He was a fantastic price in the Derby, he`s gonna be a knocking bet on Tuesday if he runs and the Arc odds speak for themselves. This animal has and will save me this flat season. If he wins again i`ll be getting a nice print of him and i`ll frame it and put it on my wall and place it on my hall of fame alongside Subotica, Beauchamp Pilot, Bago and Finsceal Beo.
 
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Andrew Hurley said:
I wonder why it is that people don't realise how exceptional this horse has been to date.
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I could say the same about Duke Of Marmalade Andrew, particularly as people have been so keen to be against him all year!

New Approach started favourite for the Dewhurst, Newmarket Guineas, Irish Guineas and was 5/1 second favourite for the Epsom Derby off a not ideal preparation. He was subsequently long odds on to win the Irish Derby before injury struck….hardly a horse that is not recognized or appreciated.

What’s more Ballydoyle will have plenty of lines on New Approach via Henrythenavigator and the Derby also rans.

Looking at Duke Of Marmalade’s form, obvious fast ground suits him well but his defeat of 3 subsequent Group 1 winners in France (when he was clearly in need of the run) early in the year was achieved on soft ground and his good run behind Ramonti at Ascot was on an easy enough surface.

As long as it does not get bottomless of very testing I think he should win and win well particularly given his ideal preparation in comparison to the Bolger horse.
 
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Forecast is awful for next few days at York. Tempted to take 25's about Multidimensional..... If it really pours down surely NA and DOM might swerve this? Lush Lashes too
 
If New Approach was to pull out, Duke of Marmalade really would have nothing to gain by running apart from the prize money. I wonder would they be tempted to take a chance on King of Rome or Zulu Chief picking up a group 1. You would imagine they probably aren't good enough to risk losing a fairly hefty prize over.
 
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clivex said:
Forecast is awful for next few days at York. Tempted to take 25's about Multidimensional..... If it really pours down surely NA and DOM might swerve this? Lush Lashes too
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Good thinking, it could be horrible ground. Taken a bit of 28 at Betfair.
 
Met office for York

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Continuing unsettled and on the cool side with further showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times.
 
What price would Bahia Breeze be for this? I couldn't have Multidimiensional for this even with the front 2 missing. If the ground is to ride bad, I'd far rather take a punt on Bankable at 20's than Multidimensional at 25's. Truth be told mind, The Duke ran well enough on softish in this last year and the QEII for me not to be overly concerned about the ground and I think he'll win.

As much as I'd like to see it, I suspect New Approach won't run. Whilst potentially he should be a shorter price than Lads make him, it does factor in the participation doubt and interrupted prep. On soft/good to soft If he turns up, I'd have him around a 10/3 or 7/2. I'd not have him any shorter than 5/2 in a match against the Duke (not that I'm going to lay that to anyone before you all start!)
 
Galileo said:
I could say the same about Duke Of Marmalade Andrew, particularly as people have been so keen to be against him all year!

New Approach started favourite for the Dewhurst, Newmarket Guineas, Irish Guineas and was 5/1 second favourite for the Epsom Derby off a not ideal preparation. He was subsequently long odds on to win the Irish Derby before injury struck….hardly a horse that is not recognized or appreciated.

What’s more Ballydoyle will have plenty of lines on New Approach via Henrythenavigator and the Derby also rans.

Looking at Duke Of Marmalade’s form, obvious fast ground suits him well but his defeat of 3 subsequent Group 1 winners in France (when he was clearly in need of the run) early in the year was achieved on soft ground and his good run behind Ramonti at Ascot was on an easy enough surface.

As long as it does not get bottomless of very testing I think he should win and win well particularly given his ideal preparation in comparison to the Bolger horse.
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You could indeed, and be right, and I'd be among the guilty party.

However, Duke of Marmalade was just short of top class (admittedly now there may have been excuses) at 2 and 3, so it's fair to expect him to have to prove some points this year, before the majority believe he's truly top class.

My point with New Approach being underestimated is he was 6/1 for the Derby and the same price now for the Juddmonte, at a distance and going conditions that could bring about even further improvement. also, the straight at York should be right up his street.

I think he has the potential to be a 135+ horse and think he may get to show it next week.
 
New Approach was 6/1 for the Derby coming on the back of two hard runs in the Guineas and with the Derby being somewhat of an after thought.

He is 6/1 on his come back from injury when he has not been confirmed a certain runner against older horses for the first time against the highest rated turf horse in training who comes from a yard that has dominated all before them this season.

I think you are right about people not trusting what they are seeing due to his defeats at 2 & 3. But to me those seasons were a right off given his injurys...last year DOM was a one paced horse with little or no finishing kick. This year its clear to see he is travelling much sweeter and has a pretty devastating turn of foot.

Something to prove still in terms of how good he will actually be, but NA has as much if not more to prove IMO.
 
What price would Bahia Breeze be for this? I couldn't have Multidimiensional for this even with the front 2 missing. If the ground is to ride bad, I'd far rather take a punt on Bankable at 20's
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Its hardly judged purely upon Multidimensionals last run, where he beat Bahia well enough, conceding three pounds. I am a little unconvinced about Bankable's resolution. Sometimes false impressions can be created but hes not one i would back at this point.
 
If New Approach is anything like 3/1 on the day (and conditions are ok) then thats a great price IMO
 
Ladbrokes have priced up the Voltigeur....

Patkai 7/4
Alessandro Volta 3/1
Top Lock 6/1
Hebridean 7/1
Meydan City 8/1
Savarain 10/1
Centennial 12/1
Bashkirov 20/1
Scintillo 33/1
 
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