York - Day 2

Steve T

Steve T

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May 3, 2003
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Big race time tomorrow, here goes:

Workforce - so impressive on only start to date, what an engine he appeared to have. I haven't kept up with all the info that's pushed him so prominent in the Derby betting, but just watching that race at Goodwood was enough to think he could be something special.

Coordinated Cut did brilliantly to win last time after suffering interference and then making up 3 lengths to get up and win, especially given connections expected more progress following the run.

The form of Chabal winning at Sandown has already been well advertised by the runner-up, at Chester. Dettori seemed oh so confident throughout the closing stages when it perhaps didn't appear to be a walk in the park. Given the stable had the runner-up to CC, they must have an idea of where they stand with that one.

Cape Blanco is interesting. Backing the O'Brien horses first time out would seem to be a short cut to the poorhouse and I'm not sure it's form entitles him to be so short, both for tomorrows race and The Derby. Interesting that Ladbrokes are longest on SNA and among the shortest on CB for the big race in June.

I've narrowed tomorrows contest to Workforce and Coordinated Cut, with preference for the former. I get the feeling that having been under wraps since September they may be ready to unleash a monster tomorrow. 5/2 seems generous enough, if he does destroy them we may have a new favourite for the Derby by 14.45....

Workforce to win Dante & Derby 14/1 seems to be the best price on the double around, if he wins tomorrow he'd need to come in to under 4/1 to make that a price worth taking, I have a feeling he just might be under 2/1 this time tomorrow. The 33/1 for CC to complete the double is also worth a few quid.
 
I think the market this week does not hint at Workforce being a superstar and taking 5/2 to beat a decent renewal of a dante needs a massive leap of faith. Id rather back Chabal who has the better form in the book and looked a Derby type behind Kingsfort last season.
 
I'm laying Workforce today, there have been plenty of hyped up Stoute horses in the past who have ended up being morning glories and his price is ridiculous.
 
Think the Godolphin filly Flying Cloud looks overpriced in the Middleton Stakes - she's taking on two top class fillies but I was very impressed with her performance in the Cleopatre for Andre Fabre last season and she followed that up with a relatively easy success in the Ribblesdale. Not exactly sure what went wrong in Italy but looking at the ground that day I think you can forgive anything a poor run - it looked more like a ploughed field than a racecourse.
 
I agree it takes a leap of faith to back Workforce on formlines, but it wasn't until I revisited his debut last night I remembered how visually impressive he was - the time it took Ryan Moore to pull him up!

What about other races on the card - Kevin Ryan may well take the opener, but with which one?! Money about for Peak District this morning, 1st time blinkers on Rievaulx World and the stable jockey on Le Toreador! Fol Hollow ran ok at Chester and River Falcon is falling down the weights, although at 10 you would think he would need to, to get his head in front again. The favourite Russian Spirit is only 4lb higher than winning over CD in October, stable in form and had a nice prep run at the begining of the month. I'll be dissappointed in the winner isn't among those 6 something around 2/1 combined.

If I were doing a placepot I wouldn't leave Honimere out of the 2nd race, may have a fitness advantage over the other 3 who will surely have bigger priorities later in the season - G/F going may not help Sariska, recent foot injury would be a concern too. Honimere and Midday for me.
 
Think Chabal looks the safest bet with everything in his favour. I'd take Midday to beat Sariska as well - stable in great forn and no trouble with the ground.
 
Agree about Flying Cloud Martin. 6/1 more than fair.

Good luck to Kauto with CC but for me he is out of his depth here - happy to be proved wrong but you would hope at least 1 of Chabal and Workforce would go on to be a serious Derby contender in what is looking a weak year.
 
Galileo said:
stable in great form
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Interesting to hear Henry mention one that 'might be better than them all' possibly running somewhere this week - All Action could just be that horse tonight at Newmarket! Can see this going off very short.
 
Big bet on Chabal for me at 9-4.Have to collect child from school tour at 230 and it's a ten minute drive home.Wife also due any minute-I need a few lucky breaks this afternoon.
 
I think Fareer is a few points too big in the 1m handicap. I don't think he's awfully treated for his Britannia win, should go well on the ground and the favourite looks like the distance is too short for him - hard to see him out of the first 3. Good luck Songsheet.
 
Chabal hardened into 2/1 by the time I got round to getting on. I can seen the SP being 7/4. Hard to see money coming for Cape Blanco and Workforce is almost certain to be taken on at the course.
 
15/8 in places now. Would agree it's worth getting on now if you fancy him.

I've gone for a small trixie on Chabal, Fareer and Flying Cloud.
 
On his last run Chabal sets a good standard in this. So if either Cape Blanco or Workforce can beat him we have likely got a good Derby contender on our hands. I like the make up of Cape Blanco – good signs of speed and stamina. They have been at pains to play down Workforce (it’s the media that’s been hyping him) but personally I think he’ll come out best today. He has the look of a gifted performer in his only outing to date, albeit at a lower level than today.
 
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Steve T said:
Workforce to win Dante & Derby 14/1 seems to be the best price on the double around, if he wins tomorrow he'd need to come in to under 4/1 to make that a price worth taking, I have a feeling he just might be under 2/1 this time tomorrow.
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On balance I think the scenario you outline has a fairly high chance of coming off. Consequently I wouldn't want to put you off taking the 14s. As you say when/if he wins today we could easily see him contesting favouritism with SNA.
 
Got 70per cent of my proposed bet on at 9-4.happy with that-I see him as a public gamble -maybe as short as 13-8.
 
Hamm said:
I think Fareer is a few points too big in the 1m handicap. I don't think he's awfully treated for his Britannia win, should go well on the ground and the favourite looks like the distance is too short for him - hard to see him out of the first 3. Good luck Songsheet.
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Thank you, Hamm - if he can place, it will be a real boost for Songsheet's catalog page, so am keeping it all firmly crossed - especially as hopefully she's back in foal to Bahamian.. :cool:
 
Same here Gal - very impressed with Sariska less so with Midday who didn't really get going until late on. Decent enough run from Flying Cloud too.

Would love to see Sariska take in the King George - Harbinger vs. Sariska vs. Top 3yo Colts vs. Fame And Glory vs. Daryakana :)
 
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