York - Day 2

Bar the Bull

Bar the Bull

At the Start
Joined
May 2, 2003
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Llandubno, West Wales (very west)
Another very good card on the Knavesmire tomorrow.

After the lottery of a sales race, there is a nice Group 2 for fillies. The Lowther. Gamilati will likely be favourtite, but it is hard enough to carry a penalty in this race; I think Flashy Wings might be the last horse to do it successfully. I am ignoring Best Terms for the same reason.

Shumoos will fancy her chances of reversing the form with those two, but I am not sure she is getting enough of a pull from Gamilati in particular.

That leaves me with two fillies who will be coming here off the back of wins at Ascot over 6f. Angels will Fall brings top form to the table. I think she looked very green at Ascot on King George day, but she knucked down pleasingly once the penny dropped. The previous day Simcock sent out a very well backed horse to win a good looking maiden. Hello Glory was ridden like a very good horse in that race, and the second and third have come out and won since. I will be backing her, unless she is less than half of her forecast 14/1 in the Sporting Life.

There then follows a 1m 20-runner handicap. Bar the Bull doesn't back winners in these races, so I won't insult you by telling you to follow me in backing Spencer/Simcock to double up with Pintura.

Blue Bunting, Crystal Capella, Vita Nova, Wonder of Wonders, Banimpire, and Laughing Lashes all face up in the Yorkshire Oaks. I don't have a clue who will win this. It would be nice to see Queally put the embarrasing Haydock incident behind him.

What is Lordan doing riding for O'Brien in the Galtres? Haven't seen this happen in years? That filly looks to have a chance, but I think Field of Miracles, who was a short head behind Banimpire at Royal Ascot, will beat the Cecil trained Wild Coco.

And if I find mile handicaps hard, I find 2 mile handicaps twice as hard.
 
Can anyone explain the O'Brien jockey strategy/logic? In terms of eliminating variables in order to decide which horse to bet on, it is plain frustrating.
 
It's all getting very messy with the jockey arrangements! Why does Joseph try to hold on to these horses so so long! St Nicholas and Await the Dawn are two prime examples.
 
Bar the Bull said:
A
What is Lordan doing riding for O'Brien in the Galtres? Haven't seen this happen in years?
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Wayne Lordan has ridden for O'Brien 5 times this season in Ireland and 10 times in Ireland & the UK in the last 5 years so presumably it is to do with not having a stable jockey and using the best available that he has ridden for them more this season .

In terms of the ride on Spin tomorrow it's simply a matter of Seamie Heffernan doing 8-08. He could probably do the weight if he sweated but with such an impotant ride on Wonder of Wonders it makes sense to use Lordan who can comfortably do the weight and has ridden the filly before.
 
So when you see Paul Mulrennan instead of Kieran Fallon on a horse like Hoof It, you still go ahead and back it to the hilt?
 
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DrizzleCity said:
So when you see Graham Gibbons instead of Kieran Fallon on a horse like Hoof It, you still go ahead and back it to the hilt?
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What's wrong with Graham Gibbons? He's a very competent jockey and strong in a finish. I'm referring to the O'Brien jockey bookings by the way. Reading anything into them is a pointless exercise.
 
Gearoid...you will see I changed the original post...Graham Gibbons was too easy and you are right ....he is a quality jockey....what about Paul Mulrennan instead who has ridden Hoof It in the past?
 
DrizzleCity said:
So when you see Paul Mulrennan instead of Kieran Fallon on a horse like Hoof It, you still go ahead and back it to the hilt?
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I'd have more on it as the presence of Fallon/Dettori/Spencer etc. artificially shortens a horse's price compared to the difference it makes to the horse's chance.
 
Why back to the main topic? There's nothing I love debating more than overplayed factors affecting a horse's price. :)
 
We should probably start a new thread on this but I sometimes back Richard Hills mounts that have an obvious chance on form at morning prices. You'd be amazed how much shorter they can get sent off. I reckon it's his name next to a horse that makes compilers add a point or two to the morning price.



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Back to the main topic....anyone think Banimpire can go in again tomorrow?
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Yes. But.

I would fancy her to outfight any of them in a duel, but Blue Bunting beat her by coming wide at the Curragh, and something similar could happen again at York, where they tend to spread across the course in the closing stages.
 
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Gearoid said:
We should probably start a new thread on this but I sometimes back Richard Hills mounts that have an obvious chance on form at morning prices. You'd be amazed how much shorter they can get sent off. I reckon it's his name next to a horse that makes compilers add a point or two to the morning price.
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I totally agree and Richard Hills is a very competent jockey except when he has to old one up in a big field and he's a disaster.

The same applies to trainers, the Stoute fav in the last today being a prime example. If it had been trained by David O'Meara, it would have been 11/1.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Richard Hills is an absolute deity on a horse.
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MARKAZZI

York 3.05

This creature is currently 7/1 and is exactly the type of Richard Hills mount I look to back. This could easily go off 4/1 or 9/2 tomorrow and the horse might have enough to improvement to allow even Richard win on it. Good each way business at the price.
 
I reckon Wonder Of Wonders will settle the argument about who is the best three year old filly tomorrow.

Roker Park seems in real good form for David O Meara and worth a poke in the third handicap race.
 
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DrizzleCity said:
Back to the main topic....anyone think Banimpire can go in again tomorrow?
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I hope she does and believe she can. How a couple of those are ahead of her in the Market I don't know... 7/1 with Powers is huge with Snow Fairy out. While her last win wasn't visually impressive she just did enough to win!
 
WoW is a dog.

Crystal Capella should hose up. 3s huge. Blue Bunting to chase her home. Banimpire could plug on into third.
 
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