Your Festival Longshots

Backing all Jonjo's runners blind in the handicap races, usually comes up trumps.

I was interested in Warblers stat on one of the forums that Spirit of Ennis ran the last 7f quicker than Sizing Europe on AIG Champion Hurdle day, now if he could lay up close to the pace he could surprise.
 
Chelt 11th Mar / F Winter Juvenile Win Hibiki @ 30

Chelt 14th Mar / Triumph Hrd TBPlaced Hibiki @ 17.68

Chelt 12th Mar / Sun Alliance Chs Win Oscar Park @ 139.95

And a couple of others at 16s {now much shorter}
 
Sizing Europe would be my bigest ever win.
Backed and laid then backed then laid Cest Ca for the Triumph effectively giving me odds of 100/1.
Only other bet is Billyvoddan without the big 2 in the Gold Cup at 100s and to be placed in GC at 55.
 
As I said on the other thread its been a quiet few weeks but the stable isn't full of stars.Hopefully will find out how he travelled on Monday.
 
I don't think many people have looked at the 4 miler properly. I'm amazed Sandhurst is still available at 25s NRNB. He is an unexposed Irish chaser (ran behind Pomme Tiepy last time and not beaten up in behind) who looks like he could improve significantly over an extreme test. I'll be surprised if he starts at this price on the day.
 
Originally posted by tdk@Mar 8 2008, 09:59 AM
I don't think many people have looked at the 4 miler properly. I'm amazed Sandhurst is still available at 25s NRNB. He is an unexposed Irish chaser (ran behind Pomme Tiepy last time and not beaten up in behind) who looks like he could improve significantly over an extreme test. I'll be surprised if he starts at this price on the day.
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100% with you on this one TDK - backed him myself yesterday.

Your talking shite about Denman/Kauto though. :P :D
 
S*it indeed! Instead of laying off my bet on Sizing - where there may be a virus in the yard - I had a fair place bet on De Valira as a saver :rolleyes:

In one place you read he's coming in, and another that he's drifting out!
Anyone feel there's WAAAY too much information around at this time of year LOL
 
The more i look at the World Hurdle the less i fancy the favourite. And with the next three in the market all being inconsistant and not really of appeal value wise i`ve added Aitmatov @ 28 on BF to go with the 16s i have on My Way....
 
Aside from Captain Cee Bee, who I respect, I don't fancy any of the market leaders in the opener so I've backed the following at big prices:

Pasco 32
Blue Bajan 55
Sophocles 55
Kalahari King 60 (Place @ 15)
Fiveforthree 25
Calgary Bay 110 (Place @ 18.5)

My biggest fancy among that lot is Pasco, but both Kalahari King and Calgary Bay win me more. Ideally I'd have liked to have traded those two back but it looks like I'm stuffed unless either of those makes the frame.


In the Champion Hurdle, I backed De Valira at 50 but laid the lot back at 40 which made me look a bit of a chump for a while. I've also got Catch Me at 25.

I'm also on Patsy Hall @ 36 and 25's (fixed odds) in the William Hill H'cap and Oscar Park at 65 in the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase.
 
Am I missing something with Kalahari King?
Murphy is really bullish but I just can't see it myself,the form just doesn't look anywhere near good enough for the Supreme.
Mind you we've seen that with a few of his before haven't we?
Do like Pasco though,should have a bright future whatever he does Tuesday.

Not really a longshot but 7/1 Alan King top trainer looks worth a dabble.

Obviously my main hope for the week is Franchoek (50's).
 
I've mucking around with debut and prep dates regarding this race this season, as there appears to be quite a tight window where successful horses have done their last piece of work and when they were introduced. The logic is simple enough, and broadly revolves around the notion that in order to win a grade 1, a horse needs to be brought to peak fitness etc In order to achieve this they follow a prescribed programme which is theoretically devised to maximise their chances of arriving at the race with the right balance of a recent run, but not so close to the festival as to risk leaving them insufficient time to recover. In many respects it draws on AOB's comments about not being able to get another horse ready to replace Holy Roman Emperor as he was the "only horse on a 2000 Guineas schedule".

Suffice to say winning form in both the debut and prep windows has been common to the qualifiers. I seem to think that the introductory window supplied 8 of the last 10 winners, and the prep window 9 of the last 10.

This year 3 qualified, and two of those (Padydeplasterer, and Group Captain) go to the Ballymore (which has a slightly different pattern incidentally, that involves an earlier introduction and prep, which both horses now have to defy). Anyway Rory, just to lay the curse of one of my daft ideas on you :D Pasco is the only horse that qualifies this year, having won in both windows. So this is a one horse race with stats of 90% and 80% behind you
 
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