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The 2022 Grand National

I have a total of three ante-post bets so far, taken in Nov-Dec and all three are entered so that's step one negotiated:

Chatham Street Lad 40/1
Farclas 35/1
Secret Reprieve 25/1
 
Purged from Grand National Memories Facebook page

For info, the first two joint 60th on the list on weights day got a run last year....

here they are in Chase Handicap mark order, for guidance only as handicapper will announce official weights in 2 weeks time.....



1 Galvin (IRE) 8 Mr R. A. Bartlett Gordon Elliott Ireland 167
2 Melon 10 Mrs J. Donnelly Willie Mullins Ireland 164
3 Delta Work (FR) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Ire 161
4 Chantry House (IRE) 8 Mr J P. McManus Nicky Henderson 160
5 Chris's Dream (IRE) 10 Robcour Henry de Bromhead Ireland 160
6 Easysland (FR) 8 Mr John P. McManus Jonjo O'Neill 160
7 Minella Times (IRE) 9 Mr JP. McManus Henry de Bromhead 159
8 Franco de Port (FR) 7 Bruton Street V Willie Mullins Ireland 158
9 Run Wild Fred (IRE) 8 Gigginstown Gordon Elliott Irel158
10 Any Second Now (IRE) 10 Mr JP. McManus Ted Walsh Ire 157
11 Conflated (IRE) 8 Gigginstown Gordon Elliott Ireland 157
12 Lostintranslation (IRE) 10 Taylor & O'Dwyer Colin Tizzard 157
13 Burrows Saint (FR) 9 Mrs S. Ricci Willie Mullins Ireland 156
14 Assemble 8 Gigginstown House Stud Joseph O'Brien Ire 155
15 Battleoverdoyen (IRE) 9 Gigginstown Gordon Elliott Ireland 155
16 Brahma Bull (IRE) 11 Mrs S. Ricci Willie Mullins Ireland 155
17 De Rasher Counter 10 Makin' Bacon P'ship Emma Lavelle 155
18 Fiddlerontheroof(IRE)8 Taylor,Burley&O'DwyerColin Tizzard 155
19 Tiger Roll (IRE) 12 Gigginstown Gordon Elliott Ireland 155
20 Longhouse Poet (IRE) 8 S & B Mulryan Martin Brassil Ire 154
21 Two For Gold (IRE) 9 MayWeNeverBeFoundOut Kim Bailey 154
22 Eklat de Rire (FR) 8 Mr P. Davies Henry de Bromhead Ire 153
23 Kildisart (IRE) 10 Mr S Munir & Mr I Souede Ben Pauling 153
24 Santini 10 Mr & Mrs R. Kelvin-Hughes Polly Gundry 153
25 Farclas (FR) 8 Gigginstown Gordon Elliott Ireland 152
26 Mount Ida (IRE) 8 KTDA Racing Gordon Elliott Ireland 152
27 Samcro (IRE) 10 Gigginstown Gordon Elliott Ireland 152
28 Escaria Ten (FR) 8 McNeill Family Gordon Elliott Ireland 151
29 Itchy Feet (FR) 8 Kate & Andrew Brooks Olly Murphy 151
30 Ontheropes (IRE) 8 Cheveley Park Willie Mullins Ireland 151
31 Windsor Avenue (IRE) 10 Phil & Julie Martin Brian Ellison 151
32 Chatham Street Lad (IRE)10 Mr V. Healy Michael Winters Ire 150
33 Good Boy Bobby (IRE) 9 Munir & Souede N.Twiston-Davies 150
34 Lord du Mesnil(FR)9 Mr PPorter,M&MSmith RichardHobson 150
35 Caribean Boy (FR) 8 Mr S Munir&Mr I Souede N Henderson 149
36 Court Maid (IRE) 9 Rory F. Larkin Thomas Mullins Ireland 149
37 Highland Hunter (IRE) 9 Mr T. Barr Paul Nicholls 149
38 Sam Brown 10 Mr T. C. Frost Anthony Honeyball 149
39 Dingo Dollar(IRE)10WarrenHolmesKidnerWright S.Thomson 148
40 Enjoy d'Allen (FR) 8 Railway View Stud P'ship C Murphy Ire 148
41 Mighty Thunder 9 Allson Sparkle Ltd Lucinda Russell 148
42 Noble Yeats (IRE) 7 Mr P. Byrne Emmet Mullins Ireland 148
43 Top Ville Ben (IRE) 10 Harbour Rose P'ship Philip Kirby 148
44 Cloth Cap (IRE) 10 Exors of Mr T Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill 147
45 El Presente 9 DaviesPilkingtonYarboroughBrooke K. Bailey 147
46 Jett (IRE) 11 Mr Robert Waley-Cohen Olly Murphy 147
47 Off You Go (IRE) 9 Mr JP. McManus Charles Byrnes Ireland 147
48 Cloudy Glen (IRE) 9 Exors of Mr T Hemmings V Williams 146
49 Coko Beach (FR) 7 Gigginstown Gordon Elliott Ireland 146
50 Discorama (FR) 9 AGemmell/T Friel Paul Nolan Ireland 146
51 Freewheelin Dylan (IRE) 10 Miss S Mangan DMcLoughlin Ire 146
52 Phoenix Way (IRE) 9 Mr John P. McManus Harry Fry 146
53 Agusta Gold (IRE) 9 Dr S. P. Fitzgerald Willie Mullins Ireland 145
54 Anibale Fly (FR) 12 Mr JP. McManus Tony Martin Ireland 145
55 Blaklion 13 Darren & Annaley Yates Dan Skelton 145
56 Braeside (IRE) 8 KTDA Racing Gordon Elliott Ireland 145
57 Go Another One (IRE) 10 Ms C Ahearn John McConnell Ire 145
58 Kalooki (GER) 8 Mr Andrew L. Cohen Philip Hobbs 145
59 Romain de Senam (FR) 10 Judith Wilson David Pipe 145
60 Snow Leopardess 10 Andrew Fox-Pitt Charlie Longsdon 145
61 Class Conti (FR) 10 Mr SMunir/Mr I Souede Willie Mullins Ire 144
62 Domaine de L'Isle(FR)9 12 OaksRacing& Hutchins S Curran 144
63 The Big Dog (IRE) 9 D J. Kelly/CKelly Peter Fahey Ireland 144
64 Time To Get Up (IRE) 9 Mr John P. McManus Jonjo O'Neill 144
65 Eclair Surf (FR) 8 Dominic Burke & Tim Syder Emma Lavelle 143
66 Elegant Escape (IRE) 10 Mr J. P. Romans Colin Tizzard 143
67 Fortescue 8 Mr T. F. F. Nixon Henry Daly 143
68 Commodore (FR)10 MrsCWatson&MrsS Graham V Williams 142
69 Deise Aba (IRE) 9 Exors of Mr T Hemmings Philip Hobbs 142
70 Milan Native (IRE) 9 Gigginstown Gordon Elliott Ireland 142
71 Poker Party (FR) 10 Robcour Henry de Bromhead Ireland 142
72 School Boy Hours (IRE) 9 Mr JP. McManus Noel Meade Ire 142
73 Back On The Lash 8 Mr M. Boothright Martin Keighley 141
74 Full Back (FR) 7 Mr Ashley Head Gary Moore 140
75 Scoir Mear (IRE) 12 Mr JP. McManus Thomas Mullins Ire 140
76 Kapcorse (FR) 9 Mr John P. McManus Paul Nicholls 139
77 Kauto Riko (FR) 11 Mr & Mrs J.Dale and Prtnrs Tom Gretton 139
78 Mac Tottie 9 Steve & Jackie Fleetham Peter Bowen 139
79 Death Duty (IRE) 11 Gigginstown Gordon Elliott Ireland 138
80 Discordantly (IRE)8 The Odd Fellows P'ship J Harrington Ire138
81 Hill Sixteen 9 J Fyffe & S Townshend Sandy Thomson 138
82 Mister Fogpatches (IRE) 8 Mr J. B. Fahy Pat Fahy Ireland 138
83 Potters Corner(IRE)12AllStarsSports,Davies& RC CWilliams 138
84 Robin des Foret (IRE) 12 The 119 P'ship John McConnell Ire 138
85 Roi Mage (FR) 10 Mr D. G. Pryde Patrick Griffin Ireland 138
86 Secret Reprieve (IRE) 8 Mr & Mrs William Rucker E Williams 138
87 Smoking Gun(IRE)9 Barnard,Courtney,Madden GElliott Ire138
88 Uisce Beatha (IRE) 9 The Has Been's Sophie Leech 138
89 Double Shuffle (IRE) 12 Crossed Fingers P'ship T George 137
90 Mister Whitaker (IRE) 10 Mr T. G. Leslie Donald McCain 137
91 The Hollow Ginge (IRE) 9 The Ginge Army NTwiston-Davies 137
92 Definite Plan (IRE) 10 Mr JJ. Reilly Gordon Elliott Ireland 136
93 Achille (FR) 12 Mrs Vida Bingham Venetia Williams 135
94 Larry 9 Galloping On The South Downs P'ship Gary Moore 135
95 Pink Eyed Pedro 11 Mr David Brace David Brace 135
96 Brace Yourself (IRE) 9 Mrs Patricia Hunt Noel Meade Ire 134
97 Defi Bleu (FR) 9 Gigginstown Gordon Elliott Ireland 134
98 Plan of Attack (IRE) 9 Mr A. Halsall Henry de Bromhead Ire 134
99 Stones And Roses (IRE) 8 P & C. Reilly Willie Mullins Ireland 134
100 The Two Amigos 10 Bradley Partnership Nicky Martin 134
101 DideroVallis(FR)9Norman,Ramsay,Tufnell,Bishop VWilliams 133
102 Eurobot 8 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade Ireland 133
103 Jerrysback (IRE) 10 Mr John P. McManus Philip Hobbs 133
104 Mortal (IRE) 10 Mr A. Dunlop Gordon Elliott Ireland 133
105 Gwencily Berbas (FR) 11 Mr Aidan J. Ryan David Pipe 149
106 Alpha des Obeaux (FR) 12 Gigginstown Gordon Elliott Ire 125
 
Last year the lowest rated horses in the race ran off 145. Which horses below 145 at the moment are most likely to be campaigned to improve their mark and get into the race?
 
The brother and I spoke about this on the phone earlier this evening.

Secret Reprieve is an obvious candidate, entered in the Haydock Trial race later this month but that's too late to affect his mark. He'd need to run and win in the next two weeks to get his mark up 7lbs or just sit tight and hope for a sub-par final turnout, which I can't see happening.

If I get the chance to cash out my bet I will.

Taken from DG's earlier post, the following ar the ones to watch out for in the next couple of weeks:

61 Class Conti (FR) 10 Mr SMunir/Mr I Souede Willie Mullins Ire 144
62 Domaine de L'Isle(FR)9 12 OaksRacing& Hutchins S Curran 144
63 The Big Dog (IRE) 9 D J. Kelly/CKelly Peter Fahey Ireland 144
64 Time To Get Up (IRE) 9 Mr John P. McManus Jonjo O'Neill 144
65 Eclair Surf (FR) 8 Dominic Burke & Tim Syder Emma Lavelle 143
66 Elegant Escape (IRE) 10 Mr J. P. Romans Colin Tizzard 143
67 Fortescue 8 Mr T. F. F. Nixon Henry Daly 143
68 Commodore (FR)10 MrsCWatson&MrsS Graham V Williams 142
69 Deise Aba (IRE) 9 Exors of Mr T Hemmings Philip Hobbs 142
70 Milan Native (IRE) 9 Gigginstown Gordon Elliott Ireland 142
71 Poker Party (FR) 10 Robcour Henry de Bromhead Ireland 142
72 School Boy Hours (IRE) 9 Mr JP. McManus Noel Meade Ire 142
73 Back On The Lash 8 Mr M. Boothright Martin Keighley 141
74 Full Back (FR) 7 Mr Ashley Head Gary Moore 140
75 Scoir Mear (IRE) 12 Mr JP. McManus Thomas Mullins Ire 140
76 Kapcorse (FR) 9 Mr John P. McManus Paul Nicholls 139
77 Kauto Riko (FR) 11 Mr & Mrs J.Dale and Prtnrs Tom Gretton 139
78 Mac Tottie 9 Steve & Jackie Fleetham Peter Bowen 139
79 Death Duty (IRE) 11 Gigginstown Gordon Elliott Ireland 138
80 Discordantly (IRE)8 The Odd Fellows P'ship J Harrington Ire138
81 Hill Sixteen 9 J Fyffe & S Townshend Sandy Thomson 138
82 Mister Fogpatches (IRE) 8 Mr J. B. Fahy Pat Fahy Ireland 138
83 Potters Corner(IRE)12AllStarsSports,Davies& RC CWilliams 138
84 Robin des Foret (IRE) 12 The 119 P'ship John McConnell Ire 138
85 Roi Mage (FR) 10 Mr D. G. Pryde Patrick Griffin Ireland 138
86 Secret Reprieve (IRE) 8 Mr & Mrs William Rucker E Williams 138
87 Smoking Gun(IRE)9 Barnard,Courtney,Madden GElliott Ire138
88 Uisce Beatha (IRE) 9 The Has Been's Sophie Leech 138
89 Double Shuffle (IRE) 12 Crossed Fingers P'ship T George 137
90 Mister Whitaker (IRE) 10 Mr T. G. Leslie Donald McCain 137
91 The Hollow Ginge (IRE) 9 The Ginge Army NTwiston-Davies 137
92 Definite Plan (IRE) 10 Mr JJ. Reilly Gordon Elliott Ireland 136
93 Achille (FR) 12 Mrs Vida Bingham Venetia Williams 135
94 Larry 9 Galloping On The South Downs P'ship Gary Moore 135
95 Pink Eyed Pedro 11 Mr David Brace David Brace 135
96 Brace Yourself (IRE) 9 Mrs Patricia Hunt Noel Meade Ire 134
97 Defi Bleu (FR) 9 Gigginstown Gordon Elliott Ireland 134
98 Plan of Attack (IRE) 9 Mr A. Halsall Henry de Bromhead Ire 134
99 Stones And Roses (IRE) 8 P & C. Reilly Willie Mullins Ireland 134
100 The Two Amigos 10 Bradley Partnership Nicky Martin 134
101 DideroVallis(FR)9Norman,Ramsay,Tufnell,Bishop VWilliams 133
102 Eurobot 8 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade Ireland 133
103 Jerrysback (IRE) 10 Mr John P. McManus Philip Hobbs 133
104 Mortal (IRE) 10 Mr A. Dunlop Gordon Elliott Ireland 133
105 Gwencily Berbas (FR) 11 Mr Aidan J. Ryan David Pipe 149
106 Alpha des Obeaux (FR) 12 Gigginstown Gordon Elliott Ire 125

I reckon the chances of anything rated lower than 135 going up 10lbs in the short time available are remote so stripping them out leaves:

61 Class Conti (FR) 10 Mr SMunir/Mr I Souede Willie Mullins Ire 144
62 Domaine de L'Isle(FR)9 12 OaksRacing& Hutchins S Curran 144
63 The Big Dog (IRE) 9 D J. Kelly/CKelly Peter Fahey Ireland 144
64 Time To Get Up (IRE) 9 Mr John P. McManus Jonjo O'Neill 144
65 Eclair Surf (FR) 8 Dominic Burke & Tim Syder Emma Lavelle 143
66 Elegant Escape (IRE) 10 Mr J. P. Romans Colin Tizzard 143
67 Fortescue 8 Mr T. F. F. Nixon Henry Daly 143
68 Commodore (FR)10 MrsCWatson&MrsS Graham V Williams 142
69 Deise Aba (IRE) 9 Exors of Mr T Hemmings Philip Hobbs 142
70 Milan Native (IRE) 9 Gigginstown Gordon Elliott Ireland 142
71 Poker Party (FR) 10 Robcour Henry de Bromhead Ireland 142
72 School Boy Hours (IRE) 9 Mr JP. McManus Noel Meade Ire 142
73 Back On The Lash 8 Mr M. Boothright Martin Keighley 141
74 Full Back (FR) 7 Mr Ashley Head Gary Moore 140
75 Scoir Mear (IRE) 12 Mr JP. McManus Thomas Mullins Ire 140
76 Kapcorse (FR) 9 Mr John P. McManus Paul Nicholls 139
77 Kauto Riko (FR) 11 Mr & Mrs J.Dale and Prtnrs Tom Gretton 139
78 Mac Tottie 9 Steve & Jackie Fleetham Peter Bowen 139
79 Death Duty (IRE) 11 Gigginstown Gordon Elliott Ireland 138
80 Discordantly (IRE)8 The Odd Fellows P'ship J Harrington Ire138
81 Hill Sixteen 9 J Fyffe & S Townshend Sandy Thomson 138
82 Mister Fogpatches (IRE) 8 Mr J. B. Fahy Pat Fahy Ireland 138
83 Potters Corner(IRE)12AllStarsSports,Davies& RC CWilliams 138
84 Robin des Foret (IRE) 12 The 119 P'ship John McConnell Ire 138
85 Roi Mage (FR) 10 Mr D. G. Pryde Patrick Griffin Ireland 138
86 Secret Reprieve (IRE) 8 Mr & Mrs William Rucker E Williams 138
87 Smoking Gun(IRE)9 Barnard,Courtney,Madden GElliott Ire138
88 Uisce Beatha (IRE) 9 The Has Been's Sophie Leech 138
89 Double Shuffle (IRE) 12 Crossed Fingers P'ship T George 137
90 Mister Whitaker (IRE) 10 Mr T. G. Leslie Donald McCain 137
91 The Hollow Ginge (IRE) 9 The Ginge Army NTwiston-Davies 137
92 Definite Plan (IRE) 10 Mr JJ. Reilly Gordon Elliott Ireland 136
93 Achille (FR) 12 Mrs Vida Bingham Venetia Williams 135
94 Larry 9 Galloping On The South Downs P'ship Gary Moore 135
95 Pink Eyed Pedro 11 Mr David Brace David Brace 135

Realistically, we're talking about 5lbs rises, though, so:

61 Class Conti (FR) 10 Mr SMunir/Mr I Souede Willie Mullins Ire 144
62 Domaine de L'Isle(FR)9 12 OaksRacing& Hutchins S Curran 144
63 The Big Dog (IRE) 9 D J. Kelly/CKelly Peter Fahey Ireland 144
64 Time To Get Up (IRE) 9 Mr John P. McManus Jonjo O'Neill 144
65 Eclair Surf (FR) 8 Dominic Burke & Tim Syder Emma Lavelle 143
66 Elegant Escape (IRE) 10 Mr J. P. Romans Colin Tizzard 143
67 Fortescue 8 Mr T. F. F. Nixon Henry Daly 143
68 Commodore (FR)10 MrsCWatson&MrsS Graham V Williams 142
69 Deise Aba (IRE) 9 Exors of Mr T Hemmings Philip Hobbs 142
70 Milan Native (IRE) 9 Gigginstown Gordon Elliott Ireland 142
71 Poker Party (FR) 10 Robcour Henry de Bromhead Ireland 142
72 School Boy Hours (IRE) 9 Mr JP. McManus Noel Meade Ire 142
73 Back On The Lash 8 Mr M. Boothright Martin Keighley 141
74 Full Back (FR) 7 Mr Ashley Head Gary Moore 140
75 Scoir Mear (IRE) 12 Mr JP. McManus Thomas Mullins Ire 140

I'm surprised they haven't tried to get Time To Get Up to live up to his name and I really can't see any of the others bar maybe Elegant Escape being good enough to have a winning chance off 145/146.
 
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I see a few of those below the 145 mark holding entries at either Sandown or Musselburgh on Saturday.

Most of the Irish horses close to that mark are entered at Punchestown the following weekend.
 
I've just realised the ratings for the Irish horses are their Irish ratings so we can probably add 4-6lbs to them, which might make them safe(-ish).

Mister Fogpatches, for example, went up 2lbs in Ireland for finishing second to Commodore at Cheltenham, where his mark was about 5lbs higher than in Ireland. He's gone up to 138 for his good Thyestes run last week so 143 looks likely but the UK handicapper might add another pound or two because the Thyestes is always strong form. He might even put him up to 145 because he might want that form to be represented in the big race itself and MF is a very strong stayer who would have to be considered a serious contender off bottom weight.
 
Truncheon said:
If Tiger roll gets 11st 5 or less he'll **** it
Click to expand...

The horse is 12 years old, wouldn't have won a 2 horse seller in his last 2 runs.
If he even gets placed in the national his trainer should be struck off
Just because he's a famous horse doesn't give them the right to run him as a non trier or only fit enough to run 2 furlongs
 
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Desert Orchid said:
The brother and I spoke about this on the phone earlier this evening.

Secret Reprieve is an obvious candidate, entered in the Haydock Trial race later this month but that's too late to affect his mark. He'd need to run and win in the next two weeks to get his mark up 7lbs or just sit tight and hope for a sub-par final turnout, which I can't see happening.

If I get the chance to cash out my bet I will.
Click to expand...


If they don't make the cut, then they are nonrunners, assuming they aren't scratched by connections before the final dec's!
 
Maxbet said:
If they don't make the cut, then they are nonrunners, assuming they aren't scratched by connections before the final dec's!
Click to expand...

Oh, yes, I know that but I just suspect they might just accept the inevitable and take it out. For now, though, cash out is unavailable on the bet so my hand is forced.
 
Copied from the Longshot thread:

Grand National - Cloth Cap 40/1, 5pl - has been very disappointing this season so the price is entirely understandable. However, he was 11/2f for the race last season when 8lbs well in off 148 and those disappointments have seen his mark drop from 162, to which he was raised after that Kelso romp, back down to 147.

There's been no shortage of debate on here about whether that 162 was merited but it still allows for everything else in that race running below form. The mark was later revised down to 156 so 147 still looks lenient.

He wouldn't be the first horse to put disappointing runs behind him in this race. Some of my most satisfying winners have had disappointing runs of form to forgive: Ben Nevis, Last Suspect, even Rule The World. And plenty other such types have won: Royal Athlete, Mon Mome, etc.

Factor in the Trevor Hemmings colours which once-a-year punters will latch on to and there's no way the horse goes off at 40s. They operated on his wind after he disappointed in the race last year and his poor form so far this year hasn't really surprised me. I imagine there will be a feeling of unfinished business with the race. He'll get in around the 10-5 mark, an ideal weight, and will almost certainly be top-rated across all ratings firms on the pick of last season's form.

He's looked like a non-stayer, I accept, but that's a look that's easy to arrange if you've got your eyes on a bigger prize. It's a punt I'm comfortable enough with and, who knows, once the weights are out he might just run well in something like the Ultima or back at Kelso.
 
I think if you are betting a potential non stayer then the bet should be win only.
 
Desert Orchid said:
He wouldn't be the first horse to put disappointing runs behind him in this race. Some of my most satisfying winners have had disappointing runs of form to forgive: Ben Nevis, Last Suspect, even Rule The World. And plenty other such types have won: Royal Athlete, Mon Mome, etc.
Click to expand...

Yer Ben Nevis/Last Suspect/Royal Athlete types are Vieux Lion Rouge aren't they? More needed nowadays.
 
Ontheropes is the most underrated stayer chaser right now. He's a completely unexposed boat. I look forward to seeing his mark tomorrow.
 
Slim said:
Ontheropes is the most underrated stayer chaser right now. He's a completely unexposed boat. I look forward to seeing his mark tomorrow.
Click to expand...

He cant be given more than 153 as he was 4th in the Ladbroke off that mark.
In my small stake a/p portfolio I've got 100/1 for the national and 25/1 for the nh chase.
 

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