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2000 Guineas

Tanlic

Tanlic

Senior Jockey
Joined
Dec 6, 2011
Messages
12,108
Location
Bangkok Thailand
Native Trail turns out on Wednesday in the Craven @ 2/5 pretty much unbackable.

Charley Appelby doesn't make many mistake so we can expect this to be no more than a steering job

Knowing our beloved bookmakers if he hacks up like he should the 3/1 on the exchange and 11/4 elsewhere
will be 2/1 and 7/4 at best.

I'm having a 5star ***** bet which I intend to lay back and hopefully make enough to have free bet in the 2000 Guineas proper
 
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Careful, Fist - they've made no secret he's aimed at the Guineas. Already a gp1 horse, tomorrow can be no more than a warm-up.
 
On the other hand he’s got over a stone in hand over his nearest challenger here and should walk it only half fit - which he must if he’s got realistic Guineas pretensions.
 
Tanlic said:
Native Trail turns out on Wednesday in the Craven @ 2/5 pretty much unbackable.

Charley Appelby doesn't make many mistake so we can expect this to be no more than a steering job

Knowing our beloved bookmakers if he hacks up like he should the 3/1 on the exchange and 11/4 elsewhere
will be 2/1 and 7/4 at best.

I'm having a 5star ***** bet which I intend to lay back and hopefully make enough to have free bet in the 2000 Guineas proper
Click to expand...

Now 7/4-6/4 Done and dusted over 50% profit:)
 
I wasn't impressed today. He's given the 105-rated third an 11lbs beating.

I accept he'll come on for the run and can probably run to at least his current OR 122. But in the Guineas - if it's a good renewal - he might have to run to 125 or more.

Fair enough if you have the fancy prices of last summer/autumn but right now I'd want another look at the stablemate of something Coolmore might have in the wings.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wasn't impressed today. He's given the 105-rated third an 11lbs beating.

I accept he'll come on for the run and can probably run to at least his current OR 122. But in the Guineas - if it's a good renewal - he might have to run to 125 or more.

Fair enough if you have the fancy prices of last summer/autumn but right now I'd want another look at the stablemate of something Coolmore might have in the wings.
Click to expand...

Any Second Now part 2.
 
I have to agree. Dessie, you cannot bring ratings into these type races, they are bollocks. Look at the Earl of Sefton yesterday - how was the South African Chapple Hyam has rated 4lbs superior to Magellan.

Excelebration was rated 89 when Frankel beat him a similar distance in the Greenham
 
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Slim said:
Any Second Now part 2.
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ASN didn't win.

(Sorry for reminding you.)

I accept that ratings aren't everything in these races but they're a starting point. In due course we'll get sectionals and other time-based analyses but they in turn might point to its being a moderate race.

I always like the Craven form. It's often one of the better trials and it's pointed me in the direction of the winner more than once. Native Trail might well be a good thing come the day. I'm just saying that today didn't prove anything other than he's alive and well.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wasn't impressed today. He's given the 105-rated third an 11lbs beating.

I accept he'll come on for the run and can probably run to at least his current OR 122. But in the Guineas - if it's a good renewal - he might have to run to 125 or more.

Fair enough if you have the fancy prices of last summer/autumn but right now I'd want another look at the stablemate of something Coolmore might have in the wings.
Click to expand...


It’d do for me, desert. He went where Buick wanted him to go, responded well when he applied some pressure and finished strongly. Appleby reckons he’s two kilos overweight (wants him same as Dewhurst win) so he wasn’t tip top today.
 
I don't deny any of that, Barjon.

I reckon maybe I just wanted him to come out and post a 122+ ahead of a 130-ish come the day.
 
Desert Orchid said:
ASN didn't win.

(Sorry for reminding you.)

I accept that ratings aren't everything in these races but they're a starting point. In due course we'll get sectionals and other time-based analyses but they in turn might point to its being a moderate race.

I always like the Craven form. It's often one of the better trials and it's pointed me in the direction of the winner more than once. Native Trail might well be a good thing come the day. I'm just saying that today didn't prove anything other than he's alive and well.
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I don't need sectionals to tell me that Native Trail will be very hard to beat in the Guineas. That was everything I wanted to see. He hit the line hard after settling beautifully.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I accept that ratings aren't everything in these races but they're a starting point. In due course we'll get sectionals and other time-based analyses but they in turn might point to its being a moderate race.
Click to expand...

They aren't even a starting point. They are used by punters (and pundits) when assessing handicaps - they have little use in group races and honestly I think that's the reason the more high profile tipsters struggle in group/graded races whilst having a good record in the handicaps. They are so used to pounds and lengths and ratings assessments that they can't help but carry them over when looking at the better class races
 
Desert Orchid said:
ASN didn't win.

(Sorry for reminding you.)

I accept that ratings aren't everything in these races but they're a starting point. In due course we'll get sectionals and other time-based analyses but they in turn might point to its being a moderate race.

I always like the Craven form. It's often one of the better trials and it's pointed me in the direction of the winner more than once. Native Trail might well be a good thing come the day. I'm just saying that today didn't prove anything other than he's alive and well.
Click to expand...

One guineas winner won the craven in the 21st century - and that was 2004.
 
Euronymous said:
They aren't even a starting point. They are used by punters (and pundits) when assessing handicaps - they have little use in group races and honestly I think that's the reason the more high profile tipsters struggle in group/graded races whilst having a good record in the handicaps. They are so used to pounds and lengths and ratings assessments that they can't help but carry them over when looking at the better class races
Click to expand...

Interesting take, Euro, but how does one go about distinguishing between the merits of group horses? Presumably, there must come a judgement that x is better than y and some idea of how much better which must, therefore, involve some quantitative assessment of relative merit in some form or another. I can’t see anyway around that if you are going to try and assess the relative merits of horses whether they be group horses or handicappers.
 
I could tell what would happen today after the race before it happened. A few bookmakers stayed at 2/1 others went 7/4. The machine went out to 2.78. Then a half hour later people with eyes are looking for 2.56. That was everything you wanted to see in a Guineas horse. If he gets beat I don't know the horse that beats him.
 
barjon said:
Interesting take, Euro, but how does one go about distinguishing between the merits of group horses? Presumably, there must come a judgement that x is better than y and some idea of how much better which must, therefore, involve some quantitative assessment of relative merit in some form or another. I can’t see anyway around that if you are going to try and assess the relative merits of horses whether they be group horses or handicappers.
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Form study is the obvious answer. This doesn't really involve ratings when it comes to the higher grade races though because ultimately they are just another person's interpretation of the form - that's why the use of videos is so much better than just reading the form - you have to use your own eyes. After that conditions, class of race and ultimately the most important consideration when deciding on a bet - price. Like today in the Abernant - I knew Ebo River was an opposable fav because of his age. So I then had to go about finding an alternative and I preferred the group race form Garrus possessed over the the rest of the field who were high grade handicappers.
 
I think that was very impressive. My only fault with him, and the thing that can beat him, is his action. If it turns up good to firm or firmer on Guineas day he may not be so fluent.
 
QUOTES: I'm delighted we've got that first run under our belt. I was delighted with how NATIVE TRAIL looked in the paddock and I'm delighted how he prepped into the race but I'm more encouraged now he has had that run into him. He has got a lovely run style. I know people say he might be a bit round and when he comes into the Dip, he might come under the pump a bit. But when hits that rising ground, he races the right way around and in an economical fashion. He is not keen, and he doesn't try to over-race. We were two kilos heavier today than in the Dewhurst. I'm a big believer that to go into a Guineas you want to be the same weight as in the Dewhurst and I'm happy where we are. His racing brain has clicked in and we look forward to the Guineas now. He saw that out well there today. It was one thing after the Dewhurst that stepping up to the mile was always going to suit him and we saw that today and hopefully we will see that in the Guineas - Charlie Appleby, trainer.
 
Euronymous said:
Form study is the obvious answer. This doesn't really involve ratings when it comes to the higher grade races though because ultimately they are just another person's interpretation of the form - that's why the use of videos is so much better than just reading the form - you have to use your own eyes. After that conditions, class of race and ultimately the most important consideration when deciding on a bet - price. Like today in the Abernant - I knew Ebo River was an opposable fav because of his age. So I then had to go about finding an alternative and I preferred the group race form Garrus possessed over the the rest of the field who were high grade handicappers.
Click to expand...

Thanks for that, Euro. I must admit that most of my proper bets (as opposed to fun ones) come from what I have seen rather than being based mainly on what the ratings say, albeit that I see ratings as a convenient indicator of best form achieved.
 
Eleanora Duse said:
I think that was very impressive. My only fault with him, and the thing that can beat him, is his action. If it turns up good to firm or firmer on Guineas day he may not be so fluent.
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Yesterday's race was only maginally slower than the course record (+0.78s) and I'd question it'll be much quicker on the day
 

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