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Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Haydock Park)

Thank you, but I'm not sure I'll be backing her as yet as she's out of the handicap, I don't know who rides yet and we seem set for a dry rest of the week.

Right now, Royal Pagaille and Galia Des Liteaux (who gets a handy weights turnaround with the Welsh National principals if Royal Pagaille is declared on Thursday (it's a different race if he isn't) are the two on my radar.
 
We have two official - according to the race titles - GN trials this weekend.

This one at Haydock worth £100k and one at Punchestown on Sunday worth €100k.

Sadly, they are trials in name only. At Haydock only stablemates Royal Pagaille and Fontaine Collonges have genuine prospects of making the cut at Aintree, while at Punchestown only top weight Velvet Elvis has a realistic chance of doing so.

I suppose they are prizes worth aiming for so they should all be trying unless some of the Irish horses are targeting the festival handicaps or the Ayr or Irish Nationals.

Maybe these races should be exempted from the no penalty condition of the National; that winners of these races can carry a penalty to improve their chances of getting in.

Either that or make them win-and-you're-in events as prevails in the Ebor.

Just musing...
 
I just see them as interesting races in their own right.

Hoping to do a thread on the Punchestown contest once final declarations are made and Oddschecker have cobbled a price comparison market together to link to.
 
Think you're probably on point with RP declared Galia stands a very good chance at th weights probably needs the predicted rainfall though as I think she lacks gears where there is any injection of pace. Think she'd benefit from making the running also although that's doubtful.
 
I know it's not just a numbers game, but I'm finding the betting on this pleasingly out of kilter given a few are out of the handicap.

Throw in the fact I'm not sure Apples Away or Fontaine Collonge really want this marathon trip and I'm left with the two (Royal Pagaille and Gala Des Liteaux) I liked earlier in the week plus Yeah Man.

The latter won this last year in typically-desperate ground and is 11lb higher now, but he's still only an 8yo and his third in the Troytown suggests to me he's not the one-dimensional soup monster some might have you believe.

Better ground this year at the Lancashire venue seems unlikely to deter him.

There's your tricast but, when it cops, no need to post to thank me as, tbh, it's now statistically a shade of odds on I won't even see it. 😂
 
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“I suppose they are prizes worth aiming for so they should all be trying unless some of the Irish horses are targeting the festival handicaps or the Ayr or Irish Nationals.”

I don’t know why anyone would throw away the chance of winning a 100k handicap in order to have a go at a competitive Cheltenham handicap. The likes of the County Hurdle and Ultima Chase aren’t worth as much as they ought to be.

The same goes for the Champion Bumper, but that’s another story.
 
Ian_Davies said:
I know it's not just a numbers game, but I'm finding the betting on this pleasingly out of kilter given a few are out of the handicap.
Click to expand...

My take (based on my ratings and interpretation):

Val Dancer and Jubilee Express take a chunk out of the market but have it to do from out of the weights by a fair way so this opens up value elsewhere. I suspect Royal Pagaille is there to keep them out of the handicap and to help Fontaine Collonges but his chance is not obvious. I’ve suspected all season that Apple Away is targeting the Scottish National or maybe the 3m hcap chase at Aintree so I’m going to let her go here. Galia Des Liteaux has a shout if her Classic Chase form from last season is accurate but I can’t help thinking they have something else in mind for her, maybe the Midlands National. She won’t get in at Aintree off her mark. This really just leaves the two Irish horses Yeah Man [6/1] and Where It All Began [16/1] and both are backable at the prices. Where It All Began, on the face of it, is disappointing but, having been detached at the rear as they went out on the final circuit at Chepstow, he was motoring into contention and travelling better than anything when he sprawled on landing four out and was pulled up. A run down the park in the Thyestes has put him back under the radar so he’s a big price if he’s trying. A big run from Yeah Man will nudge him up a bit to do likewise to where he stands in the pecking order for those on 144 who might have a chance of sneaking in at the bottom of the handicap at Aintree.
 
Grey said:
“I suppose they are prizes worth aiming for so they should all be trying unless some of the Irish horses are targeting the festival handicaps or the Ayr or Irish Nationals.”

I don’t know why anyone would throw away the chance of winning a 100k handicap in order to have a go at a competitive Cheltenham handicap. The likes of the County Hurdle and Ultima Chase aren’t worth as much as they ought to be.

The same goes for the Champion Bumper, but that’s another story.
Click to expand...

I totally agree but it seems for some getting the win at Cheltenham means more than the prize money.
 
Thanks for that, Maurice.

I'm struggling a bit with Where It All Began because he's "wrong" at the weights.

It seems Yeah Man is where the Davies/DesertOrchid axis of power converges and I really see no reason why the beast won't run a big race on Saturday.
 
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I'm not overly concerned my fancy is a few pound wrong.

If I've got him right, he's still well ahead of the handicapper - as you probably need to be anyway.

The question I asked myself, is how much difference would carrying 5lb less make to his chance of winning.

I just don't know is the answer, but I think Git Maker has plenty positives going for him, so I'm happy enough.

If he gets beat a neck of course it'll be a different story!

Half the field are slightly out of the weights. It doesn't mean one of them won't win though does it.
 
I've done Where it all began 16/1.i thought it was only 4lb wrong but in marathons I don't think it matters especially if they have Cheltenham in mind.
It won the Irish equivalent last year and this year Will Do is entered in that.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Thanks for that, Maurice.

I'm struggling a bit with Where It All Began because he's 7lb "wrong."
Click to expand...

Firstly, he's only 4lbs wrong, Ian. I went very high with his win in the Punchestown Trial this time last year when the winning distances in the £100K (so usually very competitive) race were (lengths): 16, 5, 11, 4.25, 3.5 between the first six. The runner-up was a 5/4f Mullins hotpot and the first five were all between that and 10/1 so arguably the 'right' horses were involved but WIAB demolished them. Admittedly it was in unusually heavy ground and it might be that he was the only one to act in it but he was looking like the winner at Chepstow after being allowed to detach himself out the back and run wide throughout (unless the chucked him in a horsebox blanketed in the fog - wouldn't it put it past them) so he must have some engine. I don't have him top rated but I think he is still improving (when they want him to) and UK handicaps are easier pickings than Irish ones. It may well be that the ground isn't soft enough on Saturday - he's been withdrawn twice recently when the ground has been yielding - but I'll get my money back if he is. If he's got the handbrake off I think he'll have a shout.
 
Fair enough, Maurice, the racecard I looked at had him on 131 and racing off 138 but happy to be corrected if that's not the case.

Horses can and do win from out of the handicap but, the longer the race the more pound counts for in my book and, though it's not the only factor obviously, I don't think the market as it stands takes the marks they will all actually run off sufficiently into account.
 
Best Odds (BO) are as per yesterday afternoon:

Horse​
Weight​
OR​
MON
176​
Notes​
RPR​
BO​
Royale Pagaille​
12-0 ​
164 ​
177​
.​
171 ​
8/1​
Yeah Man​
10-8 ​
144 ​
175​
p?​
164 ​
6/1​
Apple Away​
10-2 ​
138 ​
175​
nov​
172 ​
14/1​
Where It All Began​
10-2 ​
138 ​
175​
+p​
168 ​
16/1​
Galia Des Liteaux​
10-4 ​
140 ​
172​
181?​
176 ​
10/1​
Famous Bridge​
10-2 ​
138 ​
172​
? +?​
165 ​
9/1​
Fontaine Collonges​
10-11 ​
147 ​
171​
.​
171 ​
16/1​
Git Maker​
10-2 ​
138 ​
171​
p​
164 ​
8/1​
Val Dancer​
10-2 ​
138 ​
164​
p +?​
162 ​
6/1​
Jubilee Express​
10-2 ​
138 ​
163​
p +?​
159 ​
5/1​

Long Handicap Famous Bridge 10-0, Where It All Began 9-12, Git Maker 9-11, Val Dancer 9-10, Jubilee Express 9-8

Future OR Famous Bridge (-2), Git Maker (-5), Val Dancer (-6), Jubilee Express (-8)


WIAB's 131 rating is its rating in Ireland. It's 134 over here. UK ratings at that level tend to be 6lbs higher than in Ireland
 
Yes, the BO I include are to help me root out some value when I compare where they sit in my table of ratings (the MON column is my own ratings and the figure at the top of that column is my 'target figure' for the race). I'm really looking for something I think can at least hit that mark on the day hence I tend to back improvers.
 
I am patiently waiting for Andrew Cooper's nephew to be so kind as to issue an on-the day going stick reading, but based on the readings earlier in the week and having done "me sums," I think anyone who is hoping for the traditional winter Haydock Park quagmire this afternoon for their fancy is liable to be in for a disappointment, as I suspect it will be pretty much Good jumping ground.
 
Yes, the ground is my main concern for WIAB. I'd prefer they withdrew it rather than let it lob round for a circuit before pulling up out in the country.

In similar vein, does anyone know where I can find a list of which tracks Turftrax going maps cover? I tried an Internet search and only came up with the Turftrax site and they don't seem to have a list.
 
WIAB has drifted out to 20/1 in a place or two so I suspect they'll either pull it before or during the race.

I'm being offered the cashout to no loss (I got 20s on Thursday) so I'm swithering but I'll probably just let it ride.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, the ground is my main concern for WIAB. I'd prefer they withdrew it rather than let it lob round for a circuit before pulling up out in the country.

In similar vein, does anyone know where I can find a list of which tracks Turftrax going maps cover? I tried an Internet search and only came up with the Turftrax site and they don't seem to have a list.
Click to expand...
Turftrax's Going Map Archive covers the following courses.
Aintree, Ascot, Ayr, Bangor-on-Dee, Carlisle, Cheltenham, Chepstow, Chester, Doncaster, Epsom, Goodwood, Hamilton, Haydock, Huntingdon, Kempton, Lingfield, Market Rasen, Newbury, Newcastle, Newmarket, Nottingham, Sandown, Southwell, Uttoxeter, Warwick, Wincanton, Windsor and York.

Unless a few courses have been dropped and others have been added in their place without updating the website it should be these twenty-eight.
 
With my hopes for WIAB diminishing (possibly without foundation) I've decided to take 11/1 (win) Royal Pagaille. He's top-rated on my figures and since he's putting so many out of the handicap there has to be a chance that he'll just outclass the field if he gets into a good rhythm.
 

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