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The 2025 Lincoln Handicap

I'm not a happy bunny.

I was hoping my big fancy would make it on to the longshot thread but the new markets this morning aren't promising.

I can't see that the ones that were taken out should have had the kind of impact on prices that this morning's prices imply.

I suppose there might be an element of impact in the draw but I'm not convinced.

I'm going to hold off until nearly all the bookies with which I have accounts are on oddschecker but I don't see me getting the price I was hoping for. I could have gone in yesterday evening, at which point it did qualify for the longshot thread but if it had ended up being taken out I'd have been looking for a cat to kick this morning.

I have to console myself with the idea that maybe being confirmed for the race is the price I have to pay for missing out on what I thought was a monster price.
 
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I see Hills are going 6 places on the race.

Does anyone know if they extend those terms to their shops?

(They don't let me bet ew online and restrict my stakes to under 50p but there's a shop in the village where they don't know me.)
 
Pleasantly surprised that I managed to get my first bet on my main fancy with Sky who are going 7 places. I went in modestly to test the water as they usually restrict me to pennies but the bet went through and is registered in the account as having done so.

That's a start.
 
Just watched last year's race again.

Four of the first five were drawn low. They ran in two packs but both packs ran up the centre of the track. If the same happens tomorrow the chances are the draw will be irrelevant.
 
OK, finally got on but the best I could do was 14/1, 6 places (B365), rather than the 20/1 in a few places yesterday evening.

The beast in question is Oliver Show.

I reckon it is only a matter of time before punters wake up to the fact that this is officially the best handicapped horse in the race, 6lbs well in for having run to a career best in Bahrain last time. It's the kind of thing the likes of RPRs don't pick up on as they tend to go very conservative with the form there.

The handicapper has recognised that the form is good but I think it is another six or seven pounds better again and the horse comes out clear top on my figures. The 15 draw is probably okay. Originally with Michael Stoute it would have been categorized as a typical late developer, the type he did so well with as the horse matured, and Boughey has been bringing about that improvement. The horse has form on slow turf and on slow AW surfaces and won't mind any drying out.

Loughnane is riding at 16% for the trainer this calendar year, rising to 62% first-four finishes.

If I were a bookie I wouldn't want to be going any longer than 7/2 about Oliver Show.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I see Hills are going 6 places on the race.

Does anyone know if they extend those terms to their shops?

(They don't let me bet ew online and restrict my stakes to under 50p but there's a shop in the village where they don't know me.)
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I think it's highly likely 6 places online but only 5 places in their shops, DO. I mentioned this on the forum the other day. Do check yourself and don't hold me to this, maybe it's different for different shops aswell, who knows. I'm just going on recent experiences.
 
Desert Orchid said:
OK, finally got on but the best I could do was 14/1, 6 places (B365), rather than the 20/1 in a few places yesterday evening.

The beast in question is Oliver Show.

I reckon it is only a matter of time before punters wake up to the fact that this is officially the best handicapped horse in the race, 6lbs well in for having run to a career best in Bahrain last time. It's the kind of thing the likes of RPRs don't pick up on as they tend to go very conservative with the form there.

The handicapper has recognised that the form is good but I think it is another six or seven pounds better again and the horse comes out clear top on my figures. The 15 draw is probably okay. Originally with Michael Stoute it would have been categorized as a typical late developer, the type he did so well with as the horse matured, and Boughey has been bringing about that improvement. The horse has form on slow turf and on slow AW surfaces and won't mind any drying out.

Loughnane is riding at 16% for the trainer this calendar year, rising to 62% first-four finishes.

If I were a bookie I wouldn't want to be going any longer than 7/2 about Oliver Show.
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THIS^ is what I read TH for.

Strong opinions, no sitting on the fence.

Win or lose, maximum respect to you for this, Maurice.
 
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The likes of Lattam and Mr Professor showed their best form last season in this race and are rated on that so it gives an idea of how much more difficult this will be for them. The ground doesn’t look like being as soft as in some recent years but I’m still very surprised that the NH track has been racing on ground that’s been producing fast times all spring yet with little rain about we’re faced with good-to-soft for this meeting. If he isn’t inconvenienced by the going, draw or luck in running, I think Oliver Shaw might be a bit of a good thing.

I reckon it is only a matter of time before punters wake up to the fact that this is officially the best handicapped horse in the race, 6lbs well in for having run to a career best in Bahrain last time. It's the kind of thing the likes of RPRs don't pick up on as they tend to go very conservative with the form there. The handicapper has recognised that the form is good but I think it is another six or seven pounds better again hence the horse comes out clear top on my figures. The 15 draw is probably okay. Originally with Michael Stoute it would have been categorized as a typical late developer, the type he did so well with as the horse matured, and Boughey has been bringing about that improvement. The horse has form on slow turf and on slow AW surfaces and won't mind any drying out. Loughnane is riding at 16% for the trainer this calendar year, rising to 62% first-four finishes. If I were a bookie I wouldn't want to be going any longer than 7/2 about Oliver Show. Sean and Dual Identity look worth having onside given their ratings and odds but I’d have concerns about their draws. Magnum Opus wouldn’t have got in without his penalty but the Crisfords can keep eking improvement out of these types. I got some sweetie money on Beringer at 100/1 at ante-post terms the other day, half-expecting to get my money back if he didn’t make the cut and ended up in the consolation race. If I can cash out for no loss I’ll re-bet it at the better place terms and guarantees on Saturday morning. Galeron was racing abroad last season but the year before he was running in G1s so could be fancied if getting back to that level on his return to this yard who also had the potentially well-handicapped Cicero’s Gift in at the five-day stage. If they think Galeron might be better handicapped he could be a player.
 
Desert Orchid said:
View attachment 24048

The likes of Lattam and Mr Professor showed their best form last season in this race and are rated on that so it gives an idea of how much more difficult this will be for them. The ground doesn’t look like being as soft as in some recent years but I’m still very surprised that the NH track has been racing on ground that’s been producing fast times all spring yet with little rain about we’re faced with good-to-soft for this meeting. If he isn’t inconvenienced by the going, draw or luck in running, I think Oliver Shaw might be a bit of a good thing.

I reckon it is only a matter of time before punters wake up to the fact that this is officially the best handicapped horse in the race, 6lbs well in for having run to a career best in Bahrain last time. It's the kind of thing the likes of RPRs don't pick up on as they tend to go very conservative with the form there. The handicapper has recognised that the form is good but I think it is another six or seven pounds better again hence the horse comes out clear top on my figures. The 15 draw is probably okay. Originally with Michael Stoute it would have been categorized as a typical late developer, the type he did so well with as the horse matured, and Boughey has been bringing about that improvement. The horse has form on slow turf and on slow AW surfaces and won't mind any drying out. Loughnane is riding at 16% for the trainer this calendar year, rising to 62% first-four finishes. If I were a bookie I wouldn't want to be going any longer than 7/2 about Oliver Show. Sean and Dual Identity look worth having onside given their ratings and odds but I’d have concerns about their draws. Magnum Opus wouldn’t have got in without his penalty but the Crisfords can keep eking improvement out of these types. I got some sweetie money on Beringer at 100/1 at ante-post terms the other day, half-expecting to get my money back if he didn’t make the cut and ended up in the consolation race. If I can cash out for no loss I’ll re-bet it at the better place terms and guarantees on Saturday morning. Galeron was racing abroad last season but the year before he was running in G1s so could be fancied if getting back to that level on his return to this yard who also had the potentially well-handicapped Cicero’s Gift in at the five-day stage. If they think Galeron might be better handicapped he could be a player.
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Hi
I came to the same conclusion and had a speculative bet on Oliver Show @ 33/1 on Monday morning.
It's Bahrain form is impressive (brought along nicely over 1 mile 2/ 1 mile 1 then a mile).
The horse that beat it into second on it's latest start has won his last four races at the track!!!
What made me back the horse on Monday was on George Bougheys Facebook page he posted on the 4th March '24 days till the Lincoln' and sounded like he was really looking forward to the race.
 
John Francome used to reckon there were TWO shades of going difference between the codes so what would be called Good to Firm over Jumps would be Good to Soft.

Mixed meetings back in the day like the Whitbread (which had the Classic Trial the same day) often gave evidence of this.

I think it's more like one shade myself and, anyway, I take a lot more notice of stick readings than official glimg descriptions.

But it doesn't entirely surprise me to hear they're calling it Good to Soft on the Flat course despite "spring ground" over Jumps there of late.
 
Slightly off topic, but I think Our Havana is a fascinating runner in the supporting consolation Spring Mile at 1.50.

Won on the Turf off OR72 last April over 7f at Newmarket but, since reappearing from a near six-month break for a Tapeta campaign at Newcastle and Southwell, has seen its AW mark skyrocket from 75 to 96 and bolted in by 5.5l last time out.

It could be that the AW has been the making of it, BUT it might instead just be that it's simply improved and just happened to be racing on Tapeta when illustrating this.

Returns to Turf off 88 on Saturday.

The extra furlong is an unknown, but both the sire and dam won over a mile, so it must have some sort of chance of lasting home.

I wouldn't want to be laying double-digit odds about it, that's for sure.
 
Interesting that ChatGPT (Ai) has also mentioned Oliver Show

"Oliver Show: Also featured in ante-post selections, Oliver Show is among the horses to watch in the upcoming race"

It also suggests, Thunder Run, Midnight Gun and Native Warrior have good chances (no surprise as top of the market)
 
Anadin said:
Interesting that ChatGPT (Ai) has also mentioned Oliver Show

"Oliver Show: Also featured in ante-post selections, Oliver Show is among the horses to watch in the upcoming race"

It also suggests, Thunder Run, Midnight Gun and Native Warrior have good chances (no surprise as top of the market)
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Anadin, what exactly is ChatGPT (Ai)?

It sounds like a computer generated thing?

I would imagine any such a project would fall under the GIGO principle I learned about when I did basic computer programming back in the 1980s.

That said, it makes sense for it to mention OS since he is officially the best handicapped horse in the race.
 


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