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The 2025 Lincoln Handicap

It's really frustrating when you just KNOW you've dug one up and it ends up not winning through no fault of your own in terms of not reading the form correctly.

Mind you, the ratings today have been sh1t hot with wins for TF and Spycatcher so I have to stay positive.
 
There was a severe side wind, earlier in any case so the race became a crowded sprint a bit like a bicycle race, with those drawn low trying to get cover before the sprint home.
Rossa and the other jockey may have played their hands early but young Fallon is more than just a chip off the old block.
Fascinating race.
Tough on you DO, your research was spot on once again.
 
Barnestormer said:
I came to the same conclusion and had a speculative bet on Oliver Show @ 33/1 on Monday morning.
It's Bahrain form is impressive (brought along nicely over 1 mile 2/ 1 mile 1 then a mile).
The horse that beat it into second on it's latest start has won his last four races at the track!!!
What made me back the horse on Monday was on George Bougheys Facebook page he posted on the 4th March '24 days till the Lincoln' and sounded like he was really looking forward to the race.
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(y)
 
One thing I've learned from this race is that George Boughey's runners can go off at a good price! He said afterwards that this had been the plan for a long time and that they fancied it, but today it drifted on the exchange to as high as 75 or 80, I think, before finishing around mid 40s before the off.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Still, I ended up with quite a lot of money on it and have ended up very nicely in front on the race.

Place money for Galeron too.
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Very unlucky to lose like that, but well done on the research. Galeron ran very well too, with none too clear a run. Lots of carnage in behind and worth watching race again and again, some other hard luck stories there.
 
Glad somebody got the winner! It would have been a shame to have had all that discussion and have nobody find it.

I've just watched the race again and the more I see it the more annoyed I am with young Loughnane. If he isn't kicking himself black and blue this evening I hope George Boughey is. I can come down to Newmarket tomorrow and take over if they want.

Maybe the horse was hanging left late in the race but Loughnane's arm looks to me like it's blocking his view of his right side just where the winner came. It almost looks like he was preparing to do a Barzalona celebration as he must have thought he was winning comfortably. He was in front six inches before the line and six inches after it and was two lengths in front of the winner within three strides after the line.

There was an element of Seabiscuit losing his first Santa Anita in it.

I don't mean to take anything away from the winner or his jockey. It was a similar ride and the horse has clearly improved a lot over the winter, exactly the type I feared would win.

It will be interesting to see how the handicapper reacts in terms of how much he puts up the first two relative to each other.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Glad somebody got the winner! It would have been a shame to have had all that discussion and have nobody find it.

I've just watched the race again and the more I see it the more annoyed I am with young Loughnane. If he isn't kicking himself black and blue this evening I hope George Boughey is. I can come down to Newmarket tomorrow and take over if they want.

Maybe the horse was hanging left late in the race but Loughnane's arm looks to me like it's blocking his view of his right side just where the winner came. It almost looks like he was preparing to do a Barzalona celebration as he must have thought he was winning comfortably. He was in front six inches before the line and six inches after it and was two lengths in front of the winner within three strides after the line.

There was an element of Seabiscuit losing his first Santa Anita in it.

I don't mean to take anything away from the winner or his jockey. It was a similar ride and the horse has clearly improved a lot over the winter, exactly the type I feared would win.

It will be interesting to see how the handicapper reacts in terms of how much he puts up the first two relative to each other.
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It wasn't a shock that the horse hung left (it hung left on 4 of its 6 starts for Michael Stoute and on its first two starts for Boughey).
I think the jockey should have known this coming into the race but I think he ( Billy Loughnane) is sometimes over confident
perhaps he has arrived on the scene at too young an age and needs a result like this to bring him back down to earth.
 
Absolute balls up by on course commentator Tony Ennis when he called Oliver Show the winner

Ive just checked Youtube and the sly gits at sky sports have edited the comms with 'put in' comms
 
I felt sorry for him - I think he's generally one of the better commentators and certainly one of the least irritating.

Can't blame them for changing the commentary for the archive - they want to get it right, if only for posterity, and I can't knock them for that.
 
The replay I watched last night (ATR site) had the commentator shouting 'Oliver Show wins the Lincoln' (or words to that effect). I almost fist-pumped* in triumph.

(*Are we allowed to say that these days??)

I'm still fvckin gutted, by the way :confused:

Sunnyhill Boy all over again :cry::cry::cry:
 
Yes, I came on here to congratulate you based on that and had to delete when the result was called.

As stated, I generally like that commentator - he usually just gets on with the job without self-indulgent, contrived, cliches - and I felt sorry for him.

More sorry for ME, though. as Oliver was part of my Lincoln portfolio too! 😂
 
Desert Orchid said:
The replay I watched last night (ATR site) had the commentator shouting 'Oliver Show wins the Lincoln' (or words to that effect). I almost fist-pumped* in triumph.

(*Are we allowed to say that these days??)

I'm still fvckin gutted, by the way :confused:

Sunnyhill Boy all over again :cry::cry::cry:
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In hindsight all jockeys make mistakes.
I remember years ago at York a certain Steve Cauthen managing to get a certain winner (Knoxville trained by Barry Hills) beaten in a photo with a shocking ride.
After the race I was talking to a group of lads from Newmarket who had pooled every penny they had and backed Knoxville hoping to secure enough money to buy a house in York with the proceeds.
I managed to further darken their mood when I informed them I had backed the winner on the photo finish outcome as the bookies clerk put 5/4 against the wrong horse!!!
 
As I've said before, for me studying the form is as much about the mental exercise (and I know some of my stuff is mental) in much the same way as a I do a Times cryptic crossword every day, or if one isn't available a difficult sudoku.

If I can look back at a race I've done and see that the figures and thoughts were close to the mark I'm usually happy enough even if I didn't win on the day.

But sometimes I come across one and think I can have a proper go at this one. Probably the last time I really flet that strongly was when Gosden's Shadwell horse won at royal Ascot a couple of years ago. I'd got 28/1 at the 5-day stage and pretty sure I gave it a strong mention on here (it should be archived so I'll see if I can find it) and it won at something like 7/1, very easily.

I really did feel that way about Oliver yesterday so I do think it is one that I could have raised a glass to last night.

You know what they say about pride and a fall, though...
 


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