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The 2025 Lincoln Handicap

Hey DO,
Yes with out doubt it falls under the GIGO principle.
You can not ask AI to tell you a winner, all it will do is trawl all the written and broadcast information daily and suggest from this info, an answer to your question, normally AI will give you the two/three top of the market runners, the odd occasion it mentions something else is always interesting, so outside of your writings regarding OS many other people are of a like mind, otherwise AI would not of picked that up and certainly not on the basis of "the best handicapped horse"
 
Ian_Davies said:
Slightly off topic, but I think Our Havana is a fascinating runner in the supporting consolation Spring Mile at 1.50.
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He is, but unfortunately, there are quite a few others in the race too. Pressure’s On was very eye catching last time. My original fancy Helm Park, has drifted from 16/1 to 33/1 this morning, which seems a bit odd as he is one with guaranteed fitness on his side. When I looked at the race last night One Night Thunder caught my eye too. At the time it was outsider of the field at 66/1 (though when I tried to take that with William Hill, they cut the price to 33/1 - seems to be quite a common occurrence with them). This morning he’s best priced 20/1 anywhere. He ran in the Lincoln itself last season and hasn’t run since. He was reasonably well-fancied then and ran quite well until fading badly in the final furlong - perhaps something went wrong there. Down 4lb and has run well after a break before, I’m hoping he’s fit to do himself justice here. Even if not, could be worth keeping an eye through the season. Trainer Gemma Tutty won this race last season, and runs that winning horse here again too.
 
Anadin said:
...and certainly not on the basis of "the best handicapped horse"
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Cheers, Anadin.

Would it 'read' the RP? If so, the RP card does show future ratings under handicaps.

I'll be very surprised if someone 'of influence' doesn't put it up. Then again, I'm not sure if anybody else picked up on the Bahrain form - something John Gosden did after the race - when his Shadwell horse hacked up at royal Ascot a couple of years ago.
 
I’ll be looking at the preceding Spring Mile on the card. It often provides clues, based on the draw and how the race is run. Big field, just like the Lincoln, too.

I used to love this time of year, the official start of the flat season. A 3-day Doncaster meeting, with the Lincoln the main event of the three days.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cheers, Anadin.

Would it 'read' the RP? If so, the RP card does show future ratings under handicaps.

I'll be very surprised if someone 'of influence' doesn't put it up. Then again, I'm not sure if anybody else picked up on the Bahrain form - something John Gosden did after the race - when his Shadwell horse hacked up at royal Ascot a couple of years ago.
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You would of thought so, but I doubt (Ai) its used that much at present with Horse Racing at a punter level, so it will always learn slower.

Yes, lots to be said looking at form of those that have been racing there and Meydan.
 
My flabber remains gasted that there has been no move for Oliver Show.

I admit I had never heard of it before looking at the race the other day but once I saw its form I was hooked. Looks like his fan club could fit in a phone box and still have room for Hattie Jacques.

It's also possible give in the ground might not suit but I'm not giving up hope until I see with my own eyes that it isn't going to win.
 
Desert Orchid said:
My flabber remains gasted that there has been no move for Oliver Show.

I admit I had never heard of it before looking at the race the other day but once I saw its form I was hooked. Looks like his fan club could fit in a phone box and still have room for Hattie Jacques.

It's also possible give in the ground might not suit but I'm not giving up hope until I see with my own eyes that it isn't going to win.
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1743192256427.png
 
Magnum opus 18/1
Two tempting 33/1
Oliver show 20/1 2 places.

Strictly speaking MO can't beat OS has its worse off at the weights on their southwell running.
MO got a 5lb penalty for this but is still 3lb well in.
So it intrigues me that they take him on again.
 
I've done Empirestateofmind and Spirit genie 28/1.
Spirit genie was 6th in the Lincoln last year off 85.now rated 90 and was balloted out.
Maybe it needs softer ground but 28s is too big.
 
Managed to find a going stick reading for Doncaster. It was 6.2 this morning and will have dried out a wee bit today and should do so again tomorrow.

Hopefully by the afternoon it will be close to 7.0, which strikes me as perfectly fair ground.
 
The stick reading this morning is 6.1 - draw your own conclusions (I've drawn mine).

I am not even remotely interested in any accompanying flannel from CoCs - the reading and my historical: any rail movement-adjusted, time and comparative stick data from previous fixtures there tells me all I need to know.

I'll leave it at that.

Good luck to all those I consider friends here with your bets today - it's been (and may well will continue to be) another cracking Big Race thread discussion imo.
 
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For last year's Lincoln meeting it was 5.2 ('Soft - Heavy in places') and this was reflected in the times.

At the November Hcap meeting it was 5.8 with the times marginally better.

The RP is saying 6.2 (probably gleaned from yesterday), Turftrax 6.1 this morning so maybe a reflection of the overnight drop in temperature. Since it hasn't improved any from yesterday I have to assume it won't improve much, if any at all, through the day so good to soft remains very probably near enough right.

I remain very hopeful that Oliver Show will be able to show his form in the grond since he did run well on GS before and on slow AW ground and it's not as if it was rock hard in Bahrain; it was 'Good'.

Anyway, inspired by the Oliver! show itself:

I am reviewing the situation...

And, hopefully, at about 3.37:

I shall scream...

Oliver!

And sing:

Oom-pah-pah...


Be back soon...

Enjoy the day, everyone :cheers:
 
Swayed by this thread and having checked the prices, I have had a pop on Oliver Show at a drifted 28/1 this morning.
My main selection though is Orandi.
It could be an “O” dear day if either Old Cock or Orne come in.
 
The time for the consolation race is suggesting fairly good ground (only 3.8s slow) and one of the trainers in the Cammidge has just said he's worried the ground has dried out too much for his horse.

This is a good sign for me.
 


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