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The 2025 Grand National

Alex said:
Can any one remember if any bookie went 7 let alone 8 places last year ? I thought those days were gone, especially after the field was reduced to 34.

I expected 6, possibly 7 but not 8 places.
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I don’t know for sure, but I do recall bookies being more stingy with place terms the last couple of years.
 
I am going tomorrow, I will be in the festival zone (lol), does that come with my own private seat 😅.

Does any one know of a horse that will definetly win or at least place at 5/1 or bigger, for each of the races 😃. Come on The Fortune Teller you must know 😉.
 
Alex said:
I am going tomorrow, I will be in the festival zone (lol), does that come with my own private seat 😅.

Does any one know of a horse that will definetly win or at least place at 5/1 or bigger, for each of the races 😃. Come on The Fortune Teller you must know 😉.
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I've placed 40 pounds sterling each way on my cliff horse Dr TJ Eckleburg ante post.

He might drift in the betting as his better form is on soft or heavy. That said, he won on good to firm on the flat, albeit in a mickey mouse race, and he's won on good to soft previously over hurdles and fences.

So it's one of those Alex, if the perceived negative of decent ground, could be turned into a positive, I still think he'll be running on well at the finish.

No guarantees though, sorry.

You have a great day tomorrow.
 
Sky Bet regularly offer more places but it’s at the expense of the win price. Outsider often points out that the likes of Bet365 will do likewise if you go to their site. I sometimes do accept the compromise but I can’t with Sky. They only take football bets off me. I think I would take 80/1 eight places rather than 100/1 seven places but could never be arsed doing the maths to see if it was the right decision. The race would be over before I’d worked it out!
 
The Fortune Teller said:
I've placed 40 pounds sterling each way on my cliff horse Dr TJ Eckleburg ante post.

He might drift in the betting as his better form is on soft or heavy. That said, he won on good to firm on the flat, albeit in a mickey mouse race, and he's won on good to soft previously over hurdles and fences.

So it's one of those Alex, if the perceived negative of decent ground, could be turned into a positive, I still think he'll be running on well at the finish.

No guarantees though, sorry.

You have a great day tomorrow.
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He's been tipped by Ben Linfoot in the Sporting Life.
 
jinnyj said:
I usually have about 5 or 6 in the race as there are always hard luck stories. So far all I have is Kandoo Kid at 33s which I am happy about. His last run he didn't look off a yard. I think he's been forgotten about when you think how well he won at Newbury.
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I thought he just looked the most natural jumper of a fence you'd ever see in the Hennessy I'd be concerned that form wasn't up to much but could well improve for the trip.
 
Ian_Davies said:
If they offer eight places, the aggregated place odds will have to be in excess of 800%, well in excess to allow for market fluctuations and give them a margin.

This will compress the win odds on everything.

You're often better off taking a win only price on the machine and having a place only bet in one of the many extended place markets that will be on offer on the day.

Does anyone really want to take, say, 12/1 ew eight places (12/5 the place) if they can get, say, 22 on the machine to win and odds against to place in one of the aforementioned place markets?
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I think their place side of the market will be under the 800% mark ...... they would ( as you point out ) need to drastically reduce everything to get a 800%+ place book - having been an odds compiler for around 30yrs I understand the mechanics of it all better than the average shop punter or once a year bettor. As a one off special market they will need to accept that the place side of their book will be a losing promotion, however will be hoping for a result on the win market. I can't see them going 12/1 for a 20/1 chance generally with their competitors, if they were that short on every runner then they will look utterly stupid and social media will expose them. PP will be looking for a massive boost to turnover on their busiest day, IF and I say IF they are reasonably competitive then it will be a great offer, if not then it will defeat the object and mugs will be taken for what they are.
Punters looking for a Win Only bet are unlikely to better the top exchange prices.
 
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I'd be interested M and P as a former odds compiler have you noticed the markets in general being worse for punters since all the gamcare restrictions came in ? I was away from the game for a few years and have certainly noticed a big change myself. I can remember perhaps it's 10 or so years ago Bet 365 were permanently betting overbroke in the place side of all the big Saturday handicaps. Whilst I don't take too much notice of them now because they won't lay me one banana to two bananas I have noticed they have tightened up massively.

Is that just my imagination/poor recollection of glory days ? Or would you of noticed the same contraction of the markets in general ?
 
Danny said:
I'd be interested M and P as a former odds compiler have you noticed the markets in general being worse for punters since all the gamcare restrictions came in ? I was away from the game for a few years and have certainly noticed a big change myself. I can remember perhaps it's 10 or so years ago Bet 365 were permanently betting overbroke in the place side of all the big Saturday handicaps. Whilst I don't take too much notice of them now because they won't lay me one banana to two bananas I have noticed they have tightened up massively.

Is that just my imagination/poor recollection of glory days ? Or would you of noticed the same contraction of the markets in general ?
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The whole industry has changed somewhat from what it used to be. Betting via the internet and mobile devices was seen as a huge move forward for both bookmakers ( in terms of turnover ) and for punters who would have everything at their fingertips - rather than dashing around numerous shops or making endless phone calls. Both sides are always looking for an advantage - it's always been that way, but since Betfair took off 20+years ago the bookies realised that they couldn't compete at the margins available on the exchanges, and you then started seeing more mirrored prices by the traditional firms. Pre Betfair days bookmakers odds differed much more than they do today. All bookmakers dislike punters winning too frequently, but I'd give Bet365 some credit and would think their margins are fairer than the other online firms - I'm not sure if they'd be overbroke or not as I generally don't keep tally of such things these days - what I would be confident of though is that Sky Bet would prove to be consistently the worst value of all the main bookmakers. The last few years has seen firms offering extra places on a daily basis, but if a bookmaker cuts a horse by too much EG 14's generally but they go 9's say - then all the value has gone despite one extra place, for multiple bets the value becomes even worse. For a one off race like the Grand National it may differ somewhat, it will be interesting to see how close Power's go to the general market availability if they do go ahead and offer 8 PLACES in the shops - cut them too much and they will get slaughtered on social media, but if they are close to the general availability then they will see a huge boost to their turnover.
 
Might And Power said:
The whole industry has changed somewhat from what it used to be. Betting via the internet and mobile devices was seen as a huge move forward for both bookmakers ( in terms of turnover ) and for punters who would have everything at their fingertips - rather than dashing around numerous shops or making endless phone calls. Both sides are always looking for an advantage - it's always been that way, but since Betfair took off 20+years ago the bookies realised that they couldn't compete at the margins available on the exchanges, and you then started seeing more mirrored prices by the traditional firms. Pre Betfair days bookmakers odds differed much more than they do today. All bookmakers dislike punters winning too frequently, but I'd give Bet365 some credit and would think their margins are fairer than the other online firms - I'm not sure if they'd be overbroke or not as I generally don't keep tally of such things these days - what I would be confident of though is that Sky Bet would prove to be consistently the worst value of all the main bookmakers. The last few years has seen firms offering extra places on a daily basis, but if a bookmaker cuts a horse by too much EG 14's generally but they go 9's say - then all the value has gone despite one extra place, for multiple bets the value becomes even worse. For a one off race like the Grand National it may differ somewhat, it will be interesting to see how close Power's go to the general market availability if they do go ahead and offer 8 PLACES in the shops - cut them too much and they will get slaughtered on social media, but if they are close to the general availability then they will see a huge boost to their turnover.
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Might and Power, why does a bookmaker like Hills offer 6 places online but only five in their shops?

Aren't they the same firm?

Or are the shops run by different people, almost like franchises or something?

I understand they prefer folks betting more online, because they can store all your information then, and unlike betting in a shop, you have no anonymity.

But honestly, it'll probably be the same on Saturday. It'll confuse lots of people, who might get confused as to what are the online each way terms versus the shop each way terms.

Surely in 2025, a firm like Hills each way terms should be universal across all platforms? Or maybe not? Maybe the cons outweigh the pros for them?
 
The Fortune Teller said:
Might and Power, why does a bookmaker like Hills offer 6 places online but only five in their shops?

Aren't they the same firm?

Or are the shops run by different people, almost like franchises or something?

I understand they prefer folks betting more online, because they can store all your information then, and unlike betting in a shop, you have no anonymity.

But honestly, it'll probably be the same on Saturday. It'll confuse lots of people, who might get confused as to what are the online each way terms versus the shop each way terms.

Surely in 2025, a firm like Hills each way terms should be universal across all platforms? Or maybe not? Maybe the cons outweigh the pros for them?
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Can I add another question are 8 8 8 a franchise of Hills ?
 
The Fortune Teller said:
Might and Power, why does a bookmaker like Hills offer 6 places online but only five in their shops?

Aren't they the same firm?

Or are the shops run by different people, almost like franchises or something?

I understand they prefer folks betting more online, because they can store all your information then, and unlike betting in a shop, you have no anonymity.

But honestly, it'll probably be the same on Saturday. It'll confuse lots of people, who might get confused as to what are the online each way terms versus the shop each way terms.

Surely in 2025, a firm like Hills each way terms should be universal across all platforms? Or maybe not? Maybe the cons outweigh the pros for them?
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Shop business and office / online business are treated separately ( wrongly in my opinion ) so that the bookmaker can control how much a customer can get on a selection ...... if Pricewise for eg tip one at a big price with 6 Places then restrictions can easily be placed on accounts, but if the selection was available in the shops on the same terms then punters would just travel around getting as much as they could on. You'll see it on other sporting events too as well as horseracing. The forthcoming Masters Golf is a classic example, there will be vast differences on EW Terms available Online and in the Shops. This Grand National offer by Paddy has flipped the other way by making the offer available in the shops but not online ..... I'm guessing their turnover is suffering at the moment, but as I have said already if they go too short on runners then it defeats the object of the offer in the first place.
 
I haven't bet with a bookies for years, but 1/5 odds on the Grand National seems to offset some of the bonus of paying 8 places. Or is 1/5 odds normal nowadays?
 
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  2. Royale Pagaille Charlie Deutsch
  3. Nick Rockett Patrick Mullins
  4. Grangeclare West Brian Hayes
  5. Hewick Gavin Sheehan
  6. Minella Indo Rachael Blackmore
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  8. Minella Cocooner Jonathan Burke
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  11. Hitman Freddie Gingell
  12. Beauport Sam Twiston-Davies
  13. Bravemansgame James Reveley
  14. Chantry House James Bowen
  15. Threeunderthrufive Harry Skelton
  16. Perceval Legallois Mark Walsh
  17. Kandoo Kid Harry Cobden
  18. Iroko Jonjo O'Neill Jr
  19. Intense Raffles JJ Slevin
  20. Senior Chief Darragh O'Keeffe
  21. Idas Boy Harry Bannister
  22. Fil Dor Sam Ewing
  23. Broadway Boy Tom Bellamy
  24. Coko Beach Jody McGarvey
  25. Stay Away Fay Paul O'Brien
  26. Meetingofthewaters Danny Mullins
  27. Monbeg Genius Nick Scholfield
  28. Vanillier Sean Flanagan
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  30. Hyland Nico de Boinville
  31. Celebre D'Allen Micheal Nolan
  32. Three Card Brag Sean Bowen
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  34. Duffle Coat Danny Gilligan
Reserves: Shakem Up'Arry, Roi Mage, Favori De Champdou, Fantastic Lady

Betting when I see a link.
 
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