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The 2025 Grand National

I couldn't put anyone off Conflated at a three-figure machine price.

It's incredibly well handicapped if it could recapture the magic.

I'm not sure about it on the ground or at the trip, but at a monster price you can't have everything.
 
I saw in an interview a couple of eeeks ago JJ Slevin has studied journalism - perhaps he’s trying to create a story of his own tomorrow. Without a winner for 73 days and 79 rides he’s on Home by the Lee and then Intense Raffles in the GN.
 
Not long now, so how do my first posted selections look now. Which I backed with 365 whilst I was in Tenerife.

---------------
Hi,

Thanks to B or S, I can now access 365. And I have decided it's now or never to see if my 2 observation from last year works again.

I have backed all of these ew (5 places) NRNB

I Am Maximus 11/1
Gentlemansgame 14/1
Monty's Star 16/1
Grangeclare West 20/1
Hewick 25/1
Bravesmansgame 33/1
Minnella Cocooner 33/1
L'homme Presse 50/1
Minnella Indo 50/1
Capodanno 66/1
Envoi Allen 66/1
Galvin 66/1
Royal Pagalille 66/1
Conflated 100/1

I hope some of them become Non Runners
--------------

Well some of did and that left me with these eight .....

I Am Maximus 11/1
Grangeclare West 20/1
Hewick 25/1
Bravesmansgame 33/1
Minnella Cocooner 33/1
Minnella Indo 50/1
Royal Pagalille 66/1
Conflated 100/1

I have since added

Hyland 25/1
Three Card Brag 25/1
Stay Away Fay 140/1 (win only)
Hitman 180/1

These four kind of qualify through the 2 observations from last year, if you stretch the two rules a bit.

I originally backed them all to win £40, went in again to win £80 and finally on 3 of them Hewick, Minella Cocooner and Bravesmansgame upped it to £100.

Good luck to you all, it should be quite a spectacle.
 
As said elsewhere, you could have about 20 in contention coming into the straight. The jumping shouldn’t be much of a test from there, so I probably should be looking for the strong stayers to power home from there. Not sure my final choice fits in with that, but I’m going:

1. Three Card Brag
2. Broadway Boy
3. Bravemansgame
4. Meetingofthewaters
5. Royale Pagaille

Anyway, whatever wins/places, I hope as many of you as possible have a profitable and enjoyable day. Most of all that all the brave horses and jockeys come back safely.
 
I keep seeing Strong Gale in Three Card Brags pedigree and can’t believe that he’ll stay that far. He’ll probably win by a mile!
 
moehat said:
I keep seeing Strong Gale in Three Card Brags pedigree and can’t believe that he’ll stay that far. He’ll probably win by a mile!
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Thanks. We will find out in 6 hours time - so I may share doubts then too!

I tend not to get too involved in pedigrees, as I don’t know enough about them and there are plenty of exceptions to what distance you would expect a horse to excel at. As it happens, I did look at Three Card Brag’s pedigree, and the dam’s offspring are a mixed bunch. However, they include 2 half brothers who did well at 4 miles. Idle Talk ran (albeit poorly) in 3 Nationals, and ran well in one Scottish National. Another one won over 4m on heavy at Hexham.

Connections seem to think he is an out and out stayer - so still happy with my choice.
 
My four against the field are:

Broadway Boy 80/1
Kandoo Kid 18/1
Senior Chief 33/1
Stay Away Fay 80/1

I can't remember the last time I got the winner in this race but shall enjoy the watch.

Please come home safely, you horses and jockeys. 🤞
 
 
I've now completed my 'portfolio' of bets in the race with another decent win bet on Intense Raffles, which I'm surprised has drifted to 16/1. For me, it has the same kind of chance as did I Am Maximus last year.

The RP don't show it but it is officially 5lbs well in, I think it should be some way more than that as I think they have under-rated the Bobbyjo form (let's hope it doesn't prove to be the Jobbybo form) and I saw/read something not long ago that suggested Intense Raffles was only half-fit that day.

Quite simply, the only things that beat it are the ground or bad luck in running.




Or a lack of stamina.



Or a jockey fvck-up.



Or some other horse.



Or five or six other horses.
 
I'm on Intense Raffkrs too but, like Iroko, I Am Maximus and, to a lesser extent, Stumptown, the ground worries me.

I'm surprised to see Hewick easing to 16.5 on the machine - it seems to me that everything has fallen into place for him.

Fascinating race - as always.
 
Ian_Davies said:
I'm on Intense Raffkrs too but, like Iroko, I Am Maximus and, to a lesser extent, Stumptown, the ground worries me.

I'm surprised to see Hewick easing to 16.5 on the machine - it seems to me that everything has fallen into place for him.

Fascinating race - as always.
Click to expand...

I was on the phone to the brother yesterday. For some reason he was under the impression I was on Hewick at 66/1, saying that's what I told him the day the weights came out. I have no recollection of saying that to him - I might have said it was a huge price if it got its ground but would never have expected that to happen - and certainly have no recollection of backing it so that's a strange situation.

I know he's on it at nice odds so, as always, if one of mine doesn't win I hope some of the family do.

And I'm sure plenty of our forum friends will be on the winner as well. Between us all I reckon we've just about covered the entire field!

Congratulations in advance to all backers of the winner and those who make a profit on the race even if they don't find the winner.

And I pray Tanlic is well enough to tune in for it 🥲
 
I'm already on;

Intense Raffles
Three Card Brag
Senior Chief
Fil Dor
Coko Beach

Will probably add Vanillier closer to the off but haven't pulled the trigger yet.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
Thanks. We will find out in 6 hours time - so I may share doubts then too!

I tend not to get too involved in pedigrees, as I don’t know enough about them and there are plenty of exceptions to what distance you would expect a horse to excel at. As it happens, I did look at Three Card Brag’s pedigree, and the dam’s offspring are a mixed bunch. However, they include 2 half brothers who did well at 4 miles. Idle Talk ran (albeit poorly) in 3 Nationals, and ran well in one Scottish National. Another one won over 4m on heavy at Hexham.

Connections seem to think he is an out and out stayer - so still happy with my choice.
Click to expand...
Well fancied by a lot of people and is said to be an exceptionally good jumper. I just get these ideas in my head that I can’t shift but that was well and truly proved wrong when a 7 year old won! I still haven’t got over that.And I didn’t back Ballabrigs because of his breeding. I mean, as if Mr Hemmings would have bought a non staying type!
 
Woke up this morning realising that I wanted Hewick to win so much and am almost scared to watch the race because of it. I’ll be screaming the house down if he’s in contention at the last.
 
On Cheltenham Gold Cup Day, I thought I had a formidable "Grandfolio" with Inothewayurthinking @ 25/1, Intense Raffles @ 14/1, Stumptown @ 35 and Iroko @ 14/1 - four well-handicapped horses who simply needed the Soft ground Aintree would surely manufacture.

I've had to adapt in light of subsequent events, principally in a Hewick and other spring-ground stayers direction and I now feel like I've bet a third of the field with no guarantee of a return.

It's been a blinding meeting for me, and I'll be in front on it now come what may, but I could give a fair bit back today and right now I'd take breaking even on the race and protecting what I've got.

But that's the game and this is a particularly high-quality renewal and I can't wait for it.
 
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Irish-trained horse aged between seven and nine wins the Grand National again.

Not that I backed it. 😂

Second and third fitted the profile too.

I think the ground has done for a few there.
 
Backed the winner antepost back in February, went off twice the price today. Typical!

I think I would've been happy for the winner regardless, what a tale. Not often you see Willie Mullins getting emotional.
 
Shocker from The Raffles. Did fear the ground.

Couldn't resist a saver on Nick Rockett though given the conditions.

Fair doos to Willie. What a trainer.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've taken two more bets:

Intense Raffles - I Am Maximus won the IGN off 149 then made light of 159 at Aintree a year later after not showing his form until the Bobbyjo just after the weights came out. Intense Raffles won the IGN off 140 and went up to 151 - its Aintree mark - but has been kept to two hurdles races this season to protect its mark. Running in the Bobbbyjo will satisfy its qualification requirements for this year's race. I go much higher than 151 for it and it's a second-season chaser yet to play its hand so could be another 10lbs better again, just like I Am Maximus. I've taken 14/1 (win only) in anticipation of it running very well in the Bobbyjo and it doesn't have to win.

Nick Rockett - now, I am half-expecting this one to win the Bobbyjo so I've taken 20/1 (6 places) in case it does. It was 4/1f for the IGN off 146 but disappointed. It was better in the Whitbread when maybe ridden a tad too conservatively and is now also a second-season novice with plenty of improvement in it, which it showed when winning the Thyestes easily off 152, going up to 161 (163 at Aintree for some reason) for it. He gets 3lbs from Intense Raffles in the Bobbyjo but I have him 14lbs better on my adjusted ratings.

Intense Raffles will be 15lbs better off at Aintree, though...
Click to expand...

To think Intense Raffles was 15lbs better off with Nick....

Still, covered myself on the day and chalked up yet another winner of the great race.

Well done, Ian, and everybody else who was on it.
 
Jayhawk said:
Last week I went back through the Grand National winners from 2005 onwards, and noted that both Hedgehunter and I Am Maximus had won the Bobbyjo in their races prior to Aintree which could be a pointer to Nick Rockett this year.
In the 19 GNs from 2005, six horses had won their previous race, four had come second, and two third. Nearly all of those would have been after the weights were announced.
Many Clouds can be excused a 6th in the Gold Cup, and similarly Noble Yeats and Comply Or Die ( 9th and 7th respectively in the Ultima or its equivalent).
Click to expand...
I should really have stuck to my guns and included Nick Rockett instead of Perceval Legallois in the One Only for the National competition, but with a few minutes to go I stuck £1e/w on Nick Rockett and Grangeclare West. I was pleased they didn't finish first and second as I didn't think of doing the reverse forecast.
 


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