• REGISTER NOW!! Why? Because you can't do much without having been registered!

    At the moment you have limited access to view all discussions - and most importantly, you haven't joined our community. What are you waiting for? Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join Join Talking Horses here!

The 2025 Derby

Along with Tornado Alert, I'm going to add Lazy Griff + Tennessee Stud to my ew folio.
I think both will come on a lot from their seasonal debuts + will have no problems with the trip.
Some of their end of season 2yo form against Hotazhell + Gezora reads well.
66s ++ 100s can be got.
 
When asked if he expected Moore to plump for Delacroix, O'Brien went as far as to say: "I think so. It’s very hard to know and Ryan doesn’t have to make up his mind until 1pm tomorrow."

"Everything has gone well with Delacroix," O'Brien said. "We always viewed him last year as a potential Derby horse and we found out he gets a strongly run mile and a quarter and there’s every chance he’ll get a mile and a half.

"He’s a big, powerful horse and we feel he’s gone the right way every week. I’d imagine he’ll be quite forwardly placed, but that will be Ryan’s decision if he rides him. He’s a straightforward, uncomplicated horse."
 
Just wouldn't surprise me if Moore rides The Lion In Winter. If the market overreacts it will be a mistake.
 
Slim said:
Just wouldn't surprise me if Moore rides The Lion In Winter. If the market overreacts it will be a mistake.
Click to expand...
I think it's really interesting that you've adopted such a consistent strong position on this.

I don't need people to agree with me and I need to read views that sit on the fence like I need a hole in the head.

I love strong views, whether I agree or not, and whether those views turn out to be right or not.

Moore still hasn't committed - fascinating to see which way he jumps and, of course it's not absolutely nailed on he will make the right choice.
 
What outsider though, Lazy Griff?

For braveheart Jnr. Agatha Christie couldn't make it up...

There is rain due and being a German bred you could hazard a guess he might like it.
 
I've gone in again on Tornado Alert (33/1, 4 places, NRNB, with Betfred) now that Oisin Murphy has been confirmed for the ride. I can see that price halving by Saturday.
 
Midak
Delacroix
Damysus

Is my first 3 in whatever order

Keep your eye on the weather, could be some heavy showers during racing according to the MO
 
I'd normally have a go on an Aga Khan Frenchie in this race but given the circumstances this strikes me as less than a form supplementing scenario.
 
I wouldn't rule Midak out of it, especially if the rain arrives the next three days.

Sea Bird and Pour Moi won the Greffhule and when you look at the stamina on the dam's side 1m4f on long-term watered ground might suit even better than 1m2f110yds on Good ground at Saint-Cloud.

Barzelona might well lead and, if he audaciously grabs the stands rail after Tattenham Corner, he might want some catching.

He could be a late addition to the thus far all win only "Derbfolio," each-way four places.
 
Ian_Davies said:
I think it's really interesting that you've adopted such a consistent strong position on this.

I don't need people to agree with me and I need to read views that sit on the fence like I need a hole in the head.

I love strong views, whether I agree or not, and whether those views turn out to be right or not.

Moore still hasn't committed - fascinating to see which way he jumps and, of course it's not absolutely nailed on he will make the right choice.
Click to expand...
Biggest issue with both the O'Brien two is that neither is guaranteed to stay. In a field of questionable stayers, Lambourn is not out of it from the front.
 
If the rain really arrives, a lot of currently-short priced ones are vulnerable, so I agree.

Weather watch for me, big time, I've got a trusted friend walking the course late tomorrow afternoon and I might join him if I can face the M3/M25 traffic driving up from Hampshire.
 
I could - I had 50s.

It was not only during Covid trapped at home, but at a time I had just started watching all racing on mute.

Watching alone at home in silence at a deserted track made it the most surreal winner I ever backed.

I bet four at double-digit odds relatively small in the race btw, taking on the suspect stamina Guineas winner Kameko and English King, who I thought was a slow old boat, so it's not as good as it sounds.
 
I have backed Tornado Alert at 100s but I don't actually think he's likely to stay. And I have backed Tennessee Stud at 66s because it's a race worth having a couple of long odds ew chances.

I'm waiting on the weather but expect my main bet to be Ruling Court: has the top class form and on pedigree I think he stays.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Ruling Court 5/1 best now - unless something wins a trial by half the track, I can't see the Guineas winner starting bigger than 5/2 at Epsom Downs if he goes there which, on pedigree, looks probable to me.
Click to expand...
The market moves today make this prophecy seem a bit more likely, BUT, while I think Ruling Court is a talented colt, the pedigree offers hope at 1m4f and the 2,000 Guineas form is strong and the best on offer, if it really does rain the way it's forecast it will tomorrow and maybe all all way up to Saturday, his stamina will be put to a severe test on a surface he's not proven on.

Hard to see Ruling Court starting favourite in that muddy scenario and harder to see him winning.

This could be a very ground-dependant Derby.
 
What a great race this is lining up to be. I haven’t got a clue how to pick the winner of it and the two supplementary entries (I fancied both a bit, but odds not enticing enough) large field (again great) and risk of rain have made it even harder.

I’m hoping for an outsider as I see no point in backing one of the favourites with so many unknown factors. I have backed Tornado Alert at 100/1 and Nightwalker 110/1, but slightly gone off the latter. I’m being told Stall 11 has never won the Derby, so I thought whoever got it I would back, as that is an example of a useless stat, when 10, I think has won about 11 times. Tornado Alert got it, so I may back him again. I may also add Tennessee Stud to my list.

The one I kept being drawn to though is Tuscan Hills. Won on soft over 1m as a 2yo and interesting choice of courses for his 2 runs as a 2 yo. Tight track at Thirsk, undulations at Pontefract. Travelled nicely in Dante and looked a threat before fading tamely in last 2f. I’m hoping he’s another King of Steel. I think he’s still about 80/1, so he’s my “gun to your head” choice.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
What a great race this is lining up to be. I haven’t got a clue how to pick the winner of it and the two supplementary entries (I fancied both a bit, but odds not enticing enough) large field (again great) and risk of rain have made it even harder.

I’m hoping for an outsider as I see no point in backing one of the favourites with so many unknown factors. I have backed Tornado Alert at 100/1 and Nightwalker 110/1, but slightly gone off the latter. I’m being told Stall 11 has never won the Derby, so I thought whoever got it I would back, as that is an example of a useless stat, when 10, I think has won about 11 times. Tornado Alert got it, so I may back him again. I may also add Tennessee Stud to my list.

The one I kept being drawn to though is Tuscan Hills. Won on soft over 1m as a 2yo and interesting choice of courses for his 2 runs as a 2 yo. Tight track at Thirsk, undulations at Pontefract. Travelled nicely in Dante and looked a threat before fading tamely in last 2f. I’m hoping he’s another King of Steel. I think he’s still about 80/1, so he’s my “gun to your head” choice.
Click to expand...
My only bet on the Derby so far has been a wee tickle on Tuscan Hills this morning, at 80/1. I don't think I'll be having a serious bet on any horse in the race given the doubts about stamina and going.
 

Recent Blog Posts

Back
Top