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Hong Kong Racing - Horse Race Analysis, Tips, Predictions & Live Races For Sha Tin & Happy Valley

chaumi

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Oct 7, 2012
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Been watching racing in Hong Kong for a couple of years now, plenty of good-priced winners up to 80-1 had and to be had. Sire interest plays a big part for me, as usual. The formats, race days, spread of good class races, and the general race classes are all easily understood once you get your head around them.

Plenty of unknowns in form (and trainers/jockeys till you get to know them), so it often calls for an appropriate lowish-stakes effort. But some regularly interesting good-class racing throughout the year mixed in with standard-class days/events

And this (live) pre-race analysis and race commentary helps, I wish we had stuff like this giving enhanced pre-race thoughts on fitness levels, appearance, gait etc, for our races...(we could have Jinnyj doing the conformation analysis)...


https://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au...g-kongs-meetings-137428?section=livestreaming

Sadly no Exchange markets available, but most bookies cover the meetings.

***********************

There's one going today that's screaming 'not out of the first three and an excellent winning chance' at a wildly enticing 8-1 in the overall context of this race.

The horse in question is Fallon, running in the Happy Valley 2.50, a class 3 handicap.

Fallon will handle this 9f distance (has won over it before), and has proven he can carry the weight (top weight today). Still only 5, and this is 'only' a 118k race (ran well over a mile LTO in a 180k class 2 event).

The jockey today will know exactly what to do. Should be anchored last or near last, and come down the outside from last to first in the last furlong and a half. Always exciting stuff, when it works (he did it first at 80-1 in a race Dec 23, nailing it right on the line).

Plenty of the rest of the field look exposed. Perhaps the 3YO Talents Trump (50-1 or thereabouts) might have something. Those at the top of the market obviously look fairly strong.

Fallon can throw in the odd bad run, let's hope it's not one of those today. He'll win again, whatever happens here.
 
Been watching racing in Hong Kong for a couple of years now, plenty of good-priced winners up to 80-1 had and to be had. Sire interest plays a big part for me, as usual. The formats, race days, spread of good class races, and the general race classes are all easily understood once you get your head around them.

Plenty of unknowns in form (and trainers/jockeys till you get to know them), so it often calls for an appropriate lowish-stakes effort. But some regularly interesting good-class racing throughout the year mixed in with standard-class days/events

And this (live) pre-race analysis and race commentary helps, I wish we had stuff like this giving enhanced pre-race thoughts on fitness levels, appearance, gait etc, for our races...(we could have Jinnyj doing the conformation analysis)...


https://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au...g-kongs-meetings-137428?section=livestreaming

Sadly no Exchange markets available, but most bookies cover the meetings.

***********************

There's one going today that's screaming 'not out of the first three and an excellent winning chance' at a wildly enticing 8-1 in the overall context of this race.

The horse in question is Fallon, running in the Happy Valley 2.50, a class 3 handicap.

Fallon will handle this 9f distance (has won over it before), and has proven he can carry the weight (top weight today). Still only 5, and this is 'only' a 118k race (ran well over a mile LTO in a 180k class 2 event).

The jockey today will know exactly what to do. Should be anchored last or near last, and come down the outside from last to first in the last furlong and a half. Always exciting stuff, when it works (he did it first at 80-1 in a race Dec 23, nailing it right on the line).

Plenty of the rest of the field look exposed. Perhaps the 3YO Talents Trump (50-1 or thereabouts) might have something. Those at the top of the market obviously look fairly strong.

Fallon can throw in the odd bad run, let's hope it's not one of those today. He'll win again, whatever happens here.
This had better win as I just invested a whole minute in reading all that which, when, like me, you have the attention span of a hamster who just got a new wheel, is no mean feat!
 
haha good luck to us then. 'Invested' doesn't even come close.

It should be fun in the final furlong when he'll probably still be two-thirds back, but with that withering run already underway. The 9 furlongs should mean that last one is a long (enough) one.
 
Been watching racing in Hong Kong for a couple of years now, plenty of good-priced winners up to 80-1 had and to be had. Sire interest plays a big part for me, as usual. The formats, race days, spread of good class races, and the general race classes are all easily understood once you get your head around them.

Plenty of unknowns in form (and trainers/jockeys till you get to know them), so it often calls for an appropriate lowish-stakes effort. But some regularly interesting good-class racing throughout the year mixed in with standard-class days/events

And this (live) pre-race analysis and race commentary helps, I wish we had stuff like this giving enhanced pre-race thoughts on fitness levels, appearance, gait etc, for our races...(we could have Jinnyj doing the conformation analysis)...


https://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au...g-kongs-meetings-137428?section=livestreaming

Sadly no Exchange markets available, but most bookies cover the meetings.

***********************

There's one going today that's screaming 'not out of the first three and an excellent winning chance' at a wildly enticing 8-1 in the overall context of this race.

The horse in question is Fallon, running in the Happy Valley 2.50, a class 3 handicap.

Fallon will handle this 9f distance (has won over it before), and has proven he can carry the weight (top weight today). Still only 5, and this is 'only' a 118k race (ran well over a mile LTO in a 180k class 2 event).

The jockey today will know exactly what to do. Should be anchored last or near last, and come down the outside from last to first in the last furlong and a half. Always exciting stuff, when it works (he did it first at 80-1 in a race Dec 23, nailing it right on the line).

Plenty of the rest of the field look exposed. Perhaps the 3YO Talents Trump (50-1 or thereabouts) might have something. Those at the top of the market obviously look fairly strong.

Fallon can throw in the odd bad run, let's hope it's not one of those today. He'll win again, whatever happens here.
You'll have seen I do ratings for HK on my site
My trainer and jockey ratings are course/race type based and I have all the form going back to the start of 2017

They have 30 odd pattern races, 1 at Hapy Valley and the rest at Sha Tin.

I have them cross referenced against each other as well as the 600+ UK/IRE/FRA flat pattern races I has set up for cross referencing.
There seems to better success for those coming from the last renewal of one of the HK races than those heading over there.
 
It's worth watching out for ex-Irish runners sold to run over there. It's big money stuff in general, so a fair bet they went for plenty of cash. That's one of the reasons I mentioned the 3YO in today's 2.50 - ex O'Callaghan.

They can take some time to acclimatize and/or find the right level, but ofc several poor runs is what (sometimes) gets you a 50-1 winner (that no one else knew, at least not the Hong Kongers!).

NOTE : Fallon also started out with MD
 
Their overounds are a very steady 122%

When I look at the bookie prices and the current tote prices, I have no feel for which way they're going to go by the off.

Unfortunately , unlike the UK/IRE races, I don't have the exacta or trifecta returns for HK, would have been interesting to put their races through the exacta and trifecta models I've built. Mind you on my data mining expeditions I've only found one angle worth pursuing so for far and that's for AW stks exactas.
 
As far as the Tote goes, one thing you can be sure of is there's plenty of cash floating around in the pools. Especially at Sha Tin meetings. Not too many fears of my level bets dropping the returns.
 
As far as the Tote goes, one thing you can be sure of is there's plenty of cash floating around in the pools. Especially at Sha Tin meetings. Not too many fears of my level bets dropping the returns.
you don't think our coins could force a sharp drop in price at the off???? lol
 
Well, our Fallon didn't really turn up today. Seems he was unruly in the parade, I've never watched him pre-race before so don't know if that's normal behaviour. It's possible he got too worked up - a watch next time might be advisable.

Anyway, some good racing coming up in HK over the coming weeks, for anyone that's an early riser (and that's a few of us) the meetings can kick off at 4 or 5 in the morning our time. Nice way to start off the mornings.
 

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